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Sunday, October 17, 2021

Mumbai...This day.. That Day

Heat Wave and Heat Record for Mumbai Santa Cruz:

Friday 16th October 2015 turned out to the Hottest October day ever for Mumbai S'Cruz...Recording 38.6c (5.2c above normal).On Thursday, S'Cruz saw a high of 37.2c.

The previous hottest was on 23rd October 1972 when 37.9c was recorded.

Vagaries. 



Friday, October 15, 2021



Posted 15th October afternoon


Low pressure are BB-15 forms in the Bay of Bengal, may become well marked. Likely to move in a west-northwest direction, cross north AP and adjoining south Odisha coasts bringing heavy rain in these regions. South Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Vidarbha to get moderate rain with heavy in some places over next 2 days. 

Vidarbha region may witness rain from 16-18 October, parts of Marathwada and north Madhya Maharashtra (Jalgaon, Dhule) may see light to moderate rain during 16-18 October. Less chance for Pune, although some increased cloudiness with warmer night temperatures.

A western disturbance in the form of a trough in the westerly jet stream at 200 hPa is likely to develop over the North West subcontinent.

This is likely to result in rain across north India. Sunday 17th and Monday 18th October will see rain/Thundershowers across UP, NCR region, parts of Haryana and Punjab. 

Himachal Pradesh may witness moderate rain and higher reaches snow. Uttarakhand along with parts of Nepal likely to witness heavy to very heavy rain/snow, with threat of landslides triggered by very heavy precipitation. *Avoid Travel to Uttarakhand* from 17-19 October.

The UAC over Arabian Sea has descended to form a low pressure area AS 2 near the Lakshadweep region. This will bring strong moisture laden  westerlies and moderate-heavy rain for Kerala, southern Karnataka and Lakshadweep region over next 2 days.

 Compiled by Vag. Shreyas. 



Pune district cools down!

Some minimum temperatures from Pune district on 15/10/2021(in °c):-


1.Malin:17.6

2.Pabal(Shirur):18.1

3.Loni Kalbhor:18.3

4.NDA & #Pune IMD:18.8

5.Talegaon:18.9c

6.Lakadi(Indapur):19.6

7.Dudulgaon & #Daund:19.7

8.Junnar:19.9

9.Walhe(Purandar):20

10.Bibwewadi(Vagarian Pvt Reading):21


Data Credits:IMD

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Thursday, October 14, 2021

14th October 2021 

Monsoon over in Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and West Vidharbh.Also withdraw from N.I.Karnatak, and Telengana.

Mumbai


Southwest Monsoon 2021 finally  to withdraw from Mumbai & Pune. 

Mumbai: Monsoon had made a strong onset on 09 th June, with 3 occasions of 3 digit rainfall in 24 hr and is likely to depart by Thursday 14th.This year's retreat will be with a marginal delay of 4 days from the normal mark of 10th October.. .

Mumbai has been receiving few retreating showers since the beginning of month and these are likely to cease. However, 14th onwards, rains will recede giving way to marginal rise in day temperature with partly cloudy sky.

Mumbai: SWM Rainfall 2021 

S'Cruz : 3164 mms...6th time after in last 21 years...Third consecutive year more than 3000 mms. ( Annual 2021 till end September 3420 mms.)...

Colaba:  2332 mms. ( Annual 2021 till end September 2590 mms)

Last year, 2020 Mumbai had  the wettest monsoon (3856 mms) and the most delayed withdrawal on record, 26th October. 

In fact, even 2019 saw good rainfall of over 3500 mms

28th October 2020 was the last date when the monsoon made exit from the country. This also had the rare distinction of having simultaneous withdrawal of southwest monsoon and onset of northeast monsoon over south India. 


Tuesday, October 12, 2021

 Outlook for Gujarat & NEM 2021 Below:

Posted Tuesday 12th Night:

(Heavy Rain Pre Informed in Snippet )

Karnatak

Bengaluru Kempegowda International Airport recorded highest rainfall of 178.3 mm on today, the 12th Oct 2021 surpassing the previous all time record of 86.4 mm which was recorded on 27th May 2017. 0830 

 As on 12th Morning, Southwest monsoon was vigorous over South Interior Karnataka and active over Coastal Karnataka. 

Heavy rainfall amounts (in cm)

Bengaluru KIAL 18; 

Bargur, Sira (both Tumakuru dt) 12 each : 

Madhugiri, Bukkapatna (both Tumakuru dt) 9 each; 

Nippani (Belgavi dt), Annigeri (Dharwad dt), Kottigehara (Chikkamagaluru dt), Hoskote (Bengaluru Rural dt), Channagiri (Davangere dt), Pavagada (Tumakuru dt) 7 each. 

On Tuesday 12th , heavy rainfall till 6.30 pm...Honavar 180 mms, Udupi & Mangalore 77 mms.

Kerala:


As on 12th Morning, Southwest monsoon has been vigorous over Kerala.  Extremely heavy rainfall reports in cm are: Karipur AP (Malappuram district) 25, 

Mannarkkad (Palakkad district) 24, 

Kozhikode 22. 

Anakayam ARG (Malappuram district) 19, 

Quilandi & Vadakara (both in Kozhikode district) 18 each, 

Kannur, Pattambi (Palakkad district) & Peringalkuthu AWS (Thrissur district) 17 each, 

Mahe (Puducherry UT) 15, 

Punalur (Kollam district) & Thalassery (Kannur district) 14 each, 

Vadakkancherry (Thrissur district), Parambikulam (Palakkad district) & Keerampara ARG (Ernakulam district) 13 each, 

Thodupuzha ARG (Idukki district) & Mattannur ARG (Kannur district) 12 each, 

Thodupuzha (Idukki district), Thrithala (Palakkad district), Angadipuram & Nilambur (both in Malappuram district), Vellarikkundu AWS (Kasaragod district), Vynthala ARG (Thrissur district) & Cheruthazham ARG (Kannur district) 11 each, 

Perinthalamanna (Malappuram district) & Thenmala ARG (Kollam district) 10 each, 




Monsoon withdrawal for Gujarat on schedule as indicated yesterday
Lingering (last few days) in Southern Gujarat & Saurashtra. Will withdraw on 14th as discussed yesterday.

14 મીએ ગુજરાત માટે ચોમાસુ પાછું ખેંચશે.
 ચોમાસાના દક્ષિણ ગુજરાત અને સૌરાષ્ટ્ર માટે છેલ્લા 2 દિવસ. ગઇકાલે ચર્ચા મુજબ 14 મીએ પાછી ખેંચી લેશે.


Outlook for NEM 2021:

With the possibility of low BB-15 developing in Bay of Bengal and remaining at North AP/Odisha latitude, lower winds will continue to be mostly westerlies/South Westerly over Southern Bay for another week. 
No signs of winds changing to easterlies for Tamil Nadu coast before 21st October. 
NEM onset likely towards the 3rd week of October.
NEM write up assisted by Vag, Shreyas.



Monday, October 11, 2021

 Posted 11th October Afternoon:

The South West Monsoon will loose its steam and strength over Maharashtra, Gujarat, M.P. by 13th October. 

The "Monsoon wind pattern" and Monsoon current will be diminishing from 13th. (In Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, M.P. Telengana and N.I.Karnatak) where it will withdraw further .

Gujarat Monsoon withdrawal from 14th October completely.

 Hot weather will prevail over Kutch and western Rajasthan from 13th..as also rise in temperature and hot weather in North Konkan.(Including Mumbai).

But, for Interior Maharashtra, there is a possibility of some recurring Post Monsoon rains in Vidharbh , Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada around 18th/19th. This will /may occur if the announced system from the Bay ( BB-15) heads towards the State. Keeping the options open., but very necessary for the farmers to know about this post monsoon showers.

All dams in Marathwada 100% full (Jayakwadi 98%).

Mumbai & Pune: Last couple of days of thunder showers possibility on Monday/Tuesday or at the most Wednesday. Then Mumbai & Pune can bid good bye to the Monsoon.

Hot & sunny weather from Thursday 14th.

Mumbai Water Storage at 99%. .Pune Khadakvasla 69%..All others 100%.

Pune: But, System BB-15 can bring rain to Pune after the monsoon is over . Keeping the options open for some post monsoon showers for Pune on 18th/19th. 


परंतु, अंतर्गत महाराष्ट्रासाठी, 18/19 च्या सुमारास विदर्भ, मध्य महाराष्ट्र आणि मराठवाड्यात मान्सून नंतर काही वारंवार पावसाची शक्यता आहे. खाडीतून (बीबी -15) घोषित प्रणाली राज्याच्या दिशेने गेली तर हे होईल /होऊ शकते. पर्याय खुले ठेवणे., परंतु शेतकऱ्यांना या मान्सूननंतरच्या सरींबद्दल माहिती असणे अत्यंत आवश्यक आहे.
मराठवाड्यातील सर्व धरणे 100% भरली (जायकवाडी 98%).

14 મી ઓક્ટોબરથી ગુજરાત ચોમાસુ સંપૂર્ણપણે પાછું ખેંચશે.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Pune district reports heavy thundershowers!

Good rains accompanied with lightning and thunder lashes Pune district. Some figures ending 8:30am on 10th October,2021(in mm):


1.Lakadi(Indapur):93

2.Alandi:85

3.Lohegaon, WadgaonSheri & Velhe:77

4.Dudulgaon:76

5.Chinchwad & Bhatghar:74

6.Daund:72

7.Koregaon Bhima:70

8.Yavat:61

9.Pune IMD & Rajgurunagar:55

10.Mundhwa:46

11.Bibwewadi (Vag Pvt Reading):41

12.Waki:39

13.Talegaon Dhamdhere:38

14.Pirangut:34

15.Temghar:33

16.Magarpatta & Kothrud:28

17.Pashan(Vag Pvt Reading):26

18.Mulshi:16

19.Walhe(Purandar):15

20.Loni Kalbhor:14


Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Saturday, October 09, 2021

 Heavy thunder showers in Pune District today Saturday 9th..Rain in 12 hrs ended 10.50 pm

Lakdi Indapur 93 mm

Alandi 85 mm

Wadgaon Sheri 77 mm

Kutbav 72 mm

Bhatgar 71 mm

Bibwewadi 41 mms


Friday, October 08, 2021


" Jawad" .. Or a little lesser intensity system next week..? From the announced BB  15...lets monitor

Posted Friday 8th October:

Mumbai/Pune 8th/9th/10th: : Evening Thunder Showers will occur on this weekend. Some parts of city may experience heavy showers and Lightning.

Saturday & Sunday will possibly heavy showers in many parts of City.

South West Monsoon Withdrawal Probable date:


BB-15, Low, may form in Bay around 10th/11th..Track Westwards initially.

UAC formation seen in Arabian Sea off west Coast..May bring heavy thunder showers to Mumbai & Goa this weekend.

Maharashtra Monsoon staying till 15th at least.

महाराष्ट्र मान्सून किमान 15 तारखेपर्यंत राहील.

By 10th Oct North Gujarat should be out of Monsoon Range.

Further Withdrawal from other Gujarat areas a bit uncertain due to possible BB-15 formation in Bay.

10 ઓક્ટોબર સુધીમાં ઉત્તર ગુજરાતનું ચોમાસું સમાપ્ત થઈ જશે.ખાડીમાં સંભવિત બીબી -15 ની રચનાને કારણે અન્ય ગુજરાતના વિસ્તારોમાંથી થોડું અનિશ્ચિત.



 

Wednesday, October 06, 2021

 Vagaries: Ranked: No 3 In India...No: 39 in the World ...Amongst  Weather Blogs Ranking. --                              👉


Posted 6th October..South West Monsoon Withdrawal Commences...



Tuesday, October 05, 2021

5th October  Tuesday:

Withdrawal Process of South West Monsoon commences from extreme west Rajasthan..5th October...see below

Pune district thunderstorm rainfall ending 8:30am on 5/10/2021:

1.Wadgaon Sheri:106

2.Loni Kalbhor:68

3.Magarpatta:53

4.Khengarewadi:50

5.Pabal:47

6.Talegaon Dhamdhere:44

7.Yerwada & Jejuri:39

8.Pune IMD:30

9.Saswad & Dudlgaon:37

10.Bibwewadi(Vagarian Pvt Reading):35

11.Lavale:32

12.Walhe(Purandar):30

13.Sansar(Indapur):24

14.Khutbav Daund:19

15.Lakadi(Indapur):17

16.Chinchwad & IITM(Pashan,Vag Pvt Reading):7

Data compiled by:Vagarian Abhishek Apte.


Withdrawal Process of South West Monsoon commences from extreme west Rajasthan..5th October...






Sunday, October 03, 2021

  The Sub Continent Track of BB 14

The Path of Nature... From BB 14 .. Blossoms to Gulab... And flew away with the Falcon. (Persian personal name Shahin, meaning 'royal white falcon )

Path along the Monsoon Trough. 

This delaying the withdrawal. 

Now tracking  away from UAE



Friday, October 01, 2021

MONSOON REPORT 2021

                                                       

                                                                                                       


Posted 1st October Afternoon;

Monsoon This Year: 





The Withdrawal indications of the Monsoon, Indications in the Upper Air anti cyclone , will start from Sunday 3rd October , from the Extreme West Rajasthan Region.



The actual withdrawal from Extreme West Rajasthan will be on around 5th October, a few days after the Water Vapour image shows it clearly.

Meanwhile, 

Cyclone Shaheen forms in the Arabian Sea. May intensify to severe cyclone as it heads west towards Oman. Moving away from the Indian Region.

Western India Outlook for next 5 days:

As westerlies weaken and wind regime changes to easterlies, retreating monsoon Thunderstorms expected in parts of south MP, Gujarat and most of Maharashtra from tomorrow onwards. Madhya Maharashtra belt (Pune, Nashik, Jalgaon, Satara, Kolhapur) and adjoining western Ghats may receive moderate Thundershowers with some places getting localized heavy rain. 

Interior Konkan has more chances than coastal Konkan, although almost entire Konkan belt may receive Thundershowers over next 5 days.

Mumbai:

Monsoon to remain in Mumbai, not withdrawing till at least another 10 days.

Mumbai MMR: Chance of  Afternoon/Evening Thundershowers  from Sunday/Monday 3rd/4th October.  

Eastern outer townships may see some thunder activity from tomorrow.

Pune: Pune and neighborhood region likely to get  late afternoon Thundershowers over next 4-5 days starting Saturday 2nd  onwards. Some areas in Pune district may witness localized heavy thundershower.

Some patchy showers possible in a few areas in Pune district today.

Aurangabad: Next 3/4 days, Heavy Local Thundershowers in many areas expected in Aurangabad district.औरंगाबाद: पुढील 3/4 दिवस, औरंगाबाद जिल्ह्यात अनेक भागात जोरदार मेघगर्जनेची शक्यता आहे.

दुपारी/संध्या

Goa: Monsoon showers/thundershowers to continue for next 10/12 days.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Posted 30th September...

Heavy Rainfall Amounts from other regions in last 24 hrs given Below






 

The "Kings" this Season

Cherrapunji  6396 mms

Mawsynram 7770 mms.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai: SWM Rainfall 2021 

S'Cruz : 3164 mms...6th time after in last 21 years...Third consecutive year more than 3000 mms. ( Annual 2021 till end September 3420 mms.)...

Colaba:  2332 mms. ( Annual 2021 till end September 2590 mms)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Top 15 highest rainfall cities of Gujarat till SWM end. 

1. Kaprada(Valsad) 2875 mm

2. Umergam (Valsad) 2443 mm

3. Vapi (Valsad) 2265 mm

4. Dharampur(Valsad) 2173 mm

5. Valsad 2056 mm

6. Khergam (Navsari) 1994 mm

7. Pardi (Valsad) 1912 mm

8. Palsana (Surat) 1808 mm

9. Navsari 1801 mm

10. Gandevi (Navsari) 1791 mm

11. Waghai (Dang) 1787 mm

12.  Ahwa (Dang) 1786 mm

13. Chikli (Navsari) 1746 mm

14. Visavdaar(Junagadh) 1679 

15. Mahuva (Surat) 1580 mm

compiled by Vagarian shitij

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Massive rains in Bengal/Jharkhand from an unexpected BB-14...Last 24 hrs ended 30th September in cms.

Gangetic West Bengal: Luchipur-41; Asansol-40; Bankura-35; Durgapur, Kharidwar22 each; Tusuma-19; Purulia-18; Simulia, Kansabati-14; Rajnagar, Hetampur, Burnpur, Panagarh-8 

Jharkhand: Dhanbad-31; Bokaro-29; Deoghar-28; Jamtara-24; Giridih-15; Dumka-9; Koderma-8; Hazaribagh-7 

BB-13 (Depression)

Saurashtra & Kutch: Junagarh-28; Devbhoomi Dwarka, Amreli-14; Bhaunagar, Jamnagar-12; Veraval, Keshod, Somnath-11; Porbandar-10  Okha, Rajkot-7 each Odisha: Mayurbhanj-10; Jagatsinghpur, Puri-8; Chhattisgarh: Kondagaon-7 Gujarat region: Bharuch-10; Anand-7

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Posted 29th Night.. 



Remnant of cyclone Gulab now lies over Saurashtra as well marked low pressure area. It could also develop as an upper air cyclonic circulation up to medium tropospheric levels. 

Arabian Sea is now feeding enough moisture and the warm waters is supporting intensification of this weather system. 

A depression is likely to form soon over the Western Gujarat region. Further, this depression is expected to move into Northeast Arabian Sea with a chance of further strengthening to deep depression or even a (weak) cyclone.If formed, will be re-named. 

24-hour accumulated rainfall in CMS realised over the country (from 0830 hrs IST of 28 th to 0830 hrs IST of 29 th September, 2021)
Gujarat Region: Khanvel-37, Silvasa, Surat-22, Bharuch-18, Dangs,Valsad, Narmada-16, Ahmedabad-15, Anand, Tapi-14, Navsari-10, Chhota Udepur-8, Vadodra, Daman-8; 
Saurashtra & Kutch: Jamnagar-14, Rajkot-11, Botad-10, Junagarh-8; 



 Gangetic West Bengal: Haldia-21, Mohanpur-19, Kharagpur, Midnapore, Kalaikunda-17, Sagar Islands, Diamond Harbour,-15 each, Digha, Contai, Kakdwip10, Alipore, Uluberia-9, Jhargram-7; 

Konkan & Goa: Palghar-19, Thane-15, Raigad-13, Sindhudurg-10; 
Madhya Maharashtra: Nandurbar-18, Nasik-15, Ahmednagar-14, Jalgaon-12, Pune9, Dhule-7; 
Marathwada: Aurangabad-14;



Gujarat rains.. From ''remnants'' of Gulab



Mumbai & Bengal (Below)) rain amounts

Some rainfall figures in #Mumbai Metro Region and nearby areas from 8:30am-8:30am(24hrs) on 29/09/2021 are as follows(in mm):-

1.Mumbra:139

2.Airoli & Matheran:135

3.Mulund:129

4.Vikhroli:128

5.Mumbai Central:122

6.Goregaon:116

7.Bhandup:115

8.Andheri:114

9.Dombivli & Kurla:112

10.Dharavi:111

11.Byculla:110

12.Chembur:107

13.Koparkhairane:106

14.Naupada & Dadar West(Vag Pvt Reading):105

15.KandivaliWest:104

16.Bandra:102

17.Matunga:101

18.Santacruz IMD:100

19.Juhu:99

20.Dahisar:95

21.Grant Road:91

22.MiraRoad:83

23.Sion, Umerkhadi & Mahalaxmi:78

24.Borivali West:72

25.Belapur:60

26.Colaba IMD:20

Data Credits: MCGM, IITM & IMD

Data compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte



Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Posted Tuesday Night:


Tuesday evening scenario. Showing Monsoon Trough. 

Erstwhile Gulab may re emerge in the sea off the Kutch /Sindh coast. 

Mumbai on Wednesday 29th will get occasional showers.. Lessening by afternoon. 

Mumbai rainfall from Monday Night - Tuesday Night almost in the range of our estimate.. 

Some rainfall figures in Mumbai Metro Region and nearby areas from 8:30am-8:30pm(12hrs) on 28/09/2021 are as follows(in mm):-

1.Andheri:111

2.Mumbai Central:110

3.Mulund:102

4.Goregaon & Airoli:99

5.Bandra:98

6.Vikhroli:95

7.Byculla:94

8.Bhandup & Mumbra:93

9.Dadar West(Vagarian Pvt Reading):92

10.Kurla:91

11.Dharavi:89

12.Juhu:87

13.Santacruz IMD:83

14.Chembur:80mms

15.Matunga:79

16.Umerkhadi & Grant Road:78

17.Naupada:71

18.Kandivali West:69

19.Dombivli:68

20.Koparkhairane:67

21.Sion:60

22.Dahisar:47

23.Borivali West:43

24.Belapur:39

25.Colaba IMD:20 ( + 39 mm overnight) 

Data Credits:MCGM, IITM & IMD

Data Compiled by: Vag Abhishek Apte


Gujarat extreme rain today


Saurashtra & Kutch may get substantial rains/ thunder showers

BB-13..

24-hour accumulated rainfall (7 cm or more) realised over the country (from 0830 hrs IST of 27 th to 0830 hrs IST of 28 th September, 2021) 

 Telangana: Jakranpalle 23, Navipet 21, Dhar Palle (dist Nizamabad) 21, Ranjal (dist Nizamabad) 18, Dich Palle (dist Nizamabad) 18, Armur (dist Nizamabad) 18, Nandipet (dist Nizamabad) 17, Chandurthi (dist Rajanna Sircilla) 17, Sirsilla (dist Rajanna Sircilla) 17, Jammikunta (dist Karimnagar) 16, Bheemgal (dist Nizamabad) 16, Yeda Palle (dist Nizamabad) 15, Makloor (dist Nizamabad) 15, Ellanthukunta (dist Rajanna Sircilla) 15, Jukkal (dist Kamareddy) 15, Sarangapurnrl (dist Nirmal) 15, Velpur (dist Nizamabad) 15, Kothagudem, Khammam-11 each, Mahabubabad, Adilabad-9 each, Ramgundam, Medak, Kamareddy and -7 each  

Odisha: Cuttack-13, Gajapati-8, Jajpur-7

Madhya Maharashtra: Jalgaon-11, Kolhapur-7

Marathwada: Nanded-15, Aurangabad-13, Beed-11; Osmanabad and Latur-10 each; Jalna and Bir-8 each, Hingoli and Parbhani-7 each;

Vidarbha: Chandrapur-10; Buldana-9

Gujarat Region: Mehsana-9  

Saurashtra & Kutch: Amreli-12, Gir Somnath-8. Jamnagar, Junagarh, Morbi and Porbandar-7 each 

IMD Press realease

Posted  Tuesday 28th afternoon:

Mumbai: Against expectation for Mumbai, rains play Hide & seek with the city.

Overnight 39 mms rain in Scruz and 0.4 mms at Colaba.

BB-13 definitely weakening and being resisted. TPW ( Put up in Blog) maps were indicating that earlier. difficult to forecast the further development as Upper air indications are strong, but TPW and shear are against.

(By the way Scruz season crosses the 3000 mms mark (120 ").

Mumbai/Pune: What is in store for Tuesday...showers possible, but below expections  ..(Expectations were at least 75 mms).


BB-13 keeps its appointment with with Interior Maharashtra...rainwise ,moderate in interior Maharshtra...

Marathwada Rainfall as on 29th Morning : Nanded 105 mms, Bed 79 mms, Osmanabad 70 mms, Aurangabad 45 mms, Parbhani 32 mms.

Vidharbh: Washim 64 mms, Buldana 61 mms, Chandrapur 32 mms, Akola 24 mms.

Madhya Mah. Solapur 38 mms. Jalgaon 15 mms. 



Sunday, September 26, 2021



Post: Sunday evening 7 pm IST

Gulab crossing the East Coast on 26th Night..Cyclonic Storm with estimated winds at 75-85 Kmph.

Low TCHP..Loosing strength

Outlook for next 3 days, 27th/28th/29th September.

As the Cyclonic storm moves West ( and weakens into a Depression) from the East Coast of India towards Maharshtra, the rainfall in the State will gradually increase from Monday.

Monday 27th will see heavy thunder showers in Vidharbha and also Marathwada.

North Madhya Maharashtra will be impact of the system with  heavy rainfall on Tuesday 29th. Nasik can record more  than 100 mms on Tuesday. Jalgaon impact may not be very heavy, but moderate.

Marathwada and Aurangabad Region will get frequent heavy showers on Monday 27th  and Tuesday 28th. Intensity will be more from Monday. Rainfall amount around 25-50 mms per day in the various places. Precautions and covering of the already cut crops lying in the open will have to be taken .

Less rainfall from Wednesday 29th.

मराठवाडा आणि औरंगाबाद विभागात सोमवार 27 आणि मंगळवार 28 रोजी वारंवार मुसळधार पाऊस पडेल. सोमवारपासून तीव्रता अधिक असेल. विविध ठिकाणी सुमारे 25-50 मिलीमीटर पाऊस. उघड्यावर पडलेल्या पिकांच्या संरक्षणाची काळजी घ्यावी लागेल. झाकून ठेवा.
बुधवार 29 पासून कमी पाऊस.

Mumbai: Rains again ! From Monday, there will be another increase in rainfall. Rains and strong winds from Monday evening turning to intermittent steady rains with thunder on Monday Night., with the rainfall peaking on Tuesday 28th. Around 75-125 mms expected from Monday Night to Tuesday Night. 

Orange Alert.

Intensity decreasing from Wednesday 29th.

Pune: Rains commencing from Monday . Getting more intense and frequent on Tuesday. Tuesday 28th will be a rainy day, with the day around 23/24c and a good 40-60 mms of rainfall.

Less from Wednesday 29th.

Ghat stations will get heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.

The impact will be comparatively less in Goa. Rainfall on Monday will be occasional. Tuesday will get intermittent heavy showers. No alerts needed for Goa.

Gujarat: The State will get the impact of a Depression or a Well Marked Low.

On 28th Tuesday, we see rainfall increasing substantially in the Gujarat regions. Heavy falls expected on Tuesday in Surat ( 30-70 mms) and Bharuch ( 20-30 mms).

Saurashtra region will get the benefit of rains from Tuesday thru Wednesday.

 Sunday 26th Afternoon:

Cyclone Gulab on Vizag Radar


180 kms ESE of Gopalpur.

Tracking West. Good conditions like TCHP at 80-90 KJ/CM² and favourable MJO. 

Heavy rains warning with sea surge along coast as it crosses near Kallingapatnam. 

Maharashtra & Mumbai Outlook:

System moves West and as it nears Chhattisgarh as Deep Depression, and Maharashtra & Gujarat & MP, it will be a depression. 

Rains expected from Monday 27th for 2 days. Details coming by 6.30 today. 

Saturday, September 25, 2021

25th Night Post

Not predicted by any model, the defiant Cyclone "Gulab" has formed in the Bay. 


West ward movement of Gulab, and on crossing Odisha/North AP coast on 26th, very heavy rains expected on crossing. 

TPW


TPW shows Cyclone will weaken  and will move into Chhattisgarh as a Depression, again bringing heavy rains. 

Moving West into M. P, Gujarat and interior Maharashtra, it will pull moisture and precipitation into these States by Monday 27th & Tuesday 28th.

Gujarat will also benefit with increase in the rains. 

Good rainfall in Maharashtra on 27 & 28. Konkan including Mumbai can expect increase in the rains early next week. 

Fresh report tomorrow. 

 25th : Noon IST

BB-13: Deep Depression strength and Locations as per various Members:

CURRENT ESTIMATE

Date (mmddhhmm): 09250323

SATCON: MSLP = 992 hPa    MSW = 51 knots

SATCON Member Consensus: 50.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 54 knots

ADT: 990 hPa    53 knots    Scene: CDO    Date: SEP250515

CIMSS AMSU: 996 hPa    42 knots ( 77 Kmph)      Date: 09250323

ATMS: 995.1 hPa    37.9 knots ( 68 Kmph)   Date: 09241925

IMD :The estimated winds are at 55-65 kmph ( 1 minute & 3 minutes sustained wind speeds will differ)

Strengthening and heading towards Odisha /North A.P. as a Cyclone (Gulab) @ ( 65-75 kmph)








Friday, September 24, 2021

Posted 24th Night. 

Just yesterday we discussed the forming of BB 13 in the Bay. 

Unpredictable Favourable conditions like 80-100 Kj/cm² TCHP, wind shears, and MJO, has catapulted the system into the Bay as a Depression, on 24th evening. 40-50 kmph estimated winds. 


Will strengthen further and seeing good conditions, BB 13 will soon be Deep Depression by 25th morning. ( 50-60 kmph estimated winds) 

Due to the prevailing Sub Tropical Ridge at 20.5N  in the bay, and the Easterly winds South of it,


the System will track West or W/SW towards Odisha/North AP. 

Now, will it become a rare September Cyclone ( Gulab) in the bay? 

It at all, this will be the first cyclone after 2005 to hit AP coast in September month. And only the second cyclone in satellite era (1980 onwards). 

Another update tomorrow noon. 

Mumbai...This day.. That Day Heat Wave and Heat Record for Mumbai Santa Cruz: Friday 16th October 2015 turned out to the Hottest October day...