Wednesday, September 07, 2011

For those Interested, my views on Ananth's point and comment put up on Inter Action Page of Vagaries.

The monsoon axis now shows an embedded low, a sort of a "core low" at 996 mb in an enlarged 'west end" low of 998 mb. A small variation from the parent low, and over a limited area, as was seen in the charts on Wednesday morning. See here.
As a result of persistent feeding, and stubborn resistence to survival, very heavy rains, flooding rains were reported from the surroundings of this low.

As on 24 hrs ended Wednesday morning, all places in Kutch received torrential rains. Amongst them, Nakhatrana (dist Kutch) 27, Abdasa (dist Kutch) 20, Bhuj (dist Kutch) 19, Mandvi (dist Kutch) 17, Naliya (dist Kutch) 14 cms.
Yesterday, Dwarka received 304 mms, Kalyanpur 298 mms and Naliya (Kutch) 198 mms. Previous day as on 6th morning 24 hrs, Kalyanpur had received 210 mms. Bhuj seasonal total has now shot up to 694 mms. Several places in Kutch have now reached totala between 500-800 mms.

Across the border, Torrential rains in Sindh saw Mithi getting 225 mms, Karachi A.P. 75 mms.
Karachi recieved thundershowers on Tuesday. As per vagaries' normal system of city rain measurement, the average rainfall of 5 centres worked out to 30 mms (as reproduced by Tyrone), Vagaries estimate was 20 mms.
Thundershower possible in some parts of Karachi on Wednesday, ad decreasing rains from Thursday.

We see the core low within the main low "peeping" in and out quite frequently in the last 36 hrs. But, now it has rained out its utility, and from Thursday, we will be left with the "normal" seasonal low over Barmer.
Rainfall activity will drastically decrease in SE Sindh and Kutch, and most of Saurashtra.

However, as the west coast off shore trough runs from Saurashtra coast to Karnataka, rainfall along the Porbandar-Veraval Saurashtra coast will continue till Friday.

BB-6 has formed, and at 1000 mb and is over North Orissa/Jharkhand region. BB-6 is waiting for the clearance to move inland. As per forecasts, it will move Westwards into M.P., and then fade away.

Wednesday 7th September, and Thursday 8th September, system will move and strenghten a bit, and by Friday 9th, should be over East M.P. Wednesday and Thursday will see precipitation in Jharkhand, Orissa and Chattisgarh. Precipitation moving towards M.P. and Vidharbha from Friday.
Thundershowers in Nagpur on Thursday and Friday.
Increased rainfall also in North Konkan from Friday, as BB-6 attracts Arabian Sea moisture.

Mumbai saw some showers from Tuesday evening onwards. Vagaries had predicted 20 mms, for Tuesday, while between Colaba and S'Cruz 13 mms were recieved. As per MCGM , in the 24 hrs eneded Wednesday morning, Deonar got 55 mms and Dadar received 28 mms.

Wednesday forecast will be valid as put up on Monday's blog.

We see rainfall intensity increasing from Friday due to BB-6 approaching central India.

Thane has crossed the 3000 mms mark, and it seasonal total now stands at 3024 mms, 122% of the normal rains. Its normal for the entire season is 2468 mms.


Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh, Since last 5 years isnt it been a consistent trend that kutch and Saurastra getting abover 50 or 100 year average rain and North east below average. Even onset and withdrawal dates been delayed by 10 or more days. Will you consider this significant or we need to wait for more years ?

Regards, Ananth

mrigaen said...

Congratulations on crossing the 100000 mark.

Pavan said...

Sir, its regarding ur interaction even before i have stated due destrucion of flora in westrn ghat and ne region, i have noticd the weather and i am intrested i these from 1993, earlier there were no enough media and aws to record the obsrns,
wrt Uac and cyclonic circulations forming in bay, these crosses or landfall occur al along the bay from kanyakumari to chitagong in b'desh but in case of uac and cc formd in a'sea rarely pass(landfal) in kerala/kar/mah instead they move sau/kutch/oman this may be due to altitude of w'ghats more than e'ghats?
and another question s why the intensity of rain does nt exceed 140mm/24hr in the region between w'ghats and plains ths condition s very prominant in karnataka, even though annual rain exceed 1500mm

Anonymous said...

Thank you Rajesh for your explanation.
As you rightly pointed out, I agree we should make a note of happenings find reasons and not make hasty conclusions.
On another note the spate of UACs and Lack of depressions has helped monsoons in traditional drought prone areas(West Rajastan, Kutch, Bundelkhand) . i wonder how long will this last.

Thanks for the detailed write up.
Regards, Ananth

svt said...

@Rajesh Any reason why we are not getting classic monsoon depressions from bay during peak season. If I am right 20 years ago bay used to host around 8 depressions every year. Is it cause of worry? But even without many depressions we got normal to surplus rains in most of regions just through uac & weak low in last 2 year. We might get couple of depression in october but they most likely to go towards bangladesh.

Rajesh said...

svt and Pavan..shall give my views on your comments next week...thanks

 26th Day Temperatures..Mumbai cooler than Pune,Nasik and Same as Mahabaleshwar