Posted 17th November 2016:
Why is the NEM Weak this year (as yet)...an brief analysis from Vagaries.

While reading this , compare the article of the normal conditions and parameters of the North East Monsoon on this link from Vagaries.

The Deviations seen and observed this year from the normal are:-
1. Today the Centre of 500 level Anti Cyclone is located over Southern India. Normal should be moving towards Central Myanmar.

2. Upper Air currently warmest between 10N and 20N (at -5c)..while normally it should be over 10N and upper air temperature gradually decreasing Northwards.

3. In the jet streams, S/SW winds are dominant as of today. Not Westerlies as required.

4. No prominent Low pressure (Larger) region seen in Bay. No trough extending Westwards (to embed a Low) seen forming.

5. Presently very weak or Negative MJO prevailing in Bay region. Prevents the entry or formation of any system from the far east pulse.

6. Read "A brief Analysis of the "Peninsular" rainfall for the period October to December." by GSB on the link.

See Blog below for actual performance till date.

Posted Wednesday 16th November:

Very Poor Performance as on date of North East Monsoon..... Large Deficient in South India:
No major rains or recovery in Southern Region for next 8-10 days...Bangalore and Chennai do not get any meaningfull rains next 8 days at least.

Some Largely Deficient Districts in:From 1st October - 16th November

Tamil Nadu:                       Actual     Normal
TIRUVALLUR                    33.4        380.0     -91%    LARGE DEFICIENT
PUDUCHERRY                  44.4        481.3     -91%    LARGE DEFICIENT
KANCHEEPURAM            50.1        397.8     -87%    LARGE DEFICIENT
NAMAKKAL                      31.6        223.2     -86%    LARGE DEFICIENT
SALEM                                42.1        269.0     -84%    LARGE DEFICIENT
VELLORE                           38.1        242.1     -84%    LARGE DEFICIENT
KARUR                               37.9       223.3      -83%    LARGE DEFICIENT

CHENNAI                            94.3       499.5      -81%    LARGE DEFICIENT
KRISHNAGIRI                    43.2        226.3     -81%    LARGE DEFICIENT

Kerala: (upto 16th November)                                        Actual     Normal
KOZHIKODE                                51.3       360.4     -86%    LARGE  DEFICIENT
KASARAGOD                              45.5       291.3      -84%    LARGE  DEFICIENT
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM      73.2        408.1      -82%    LARGE  DEFICIENT
KANNUR                                      67.1       292.8      -77%    LARGE  DEFICIENT
WAYANAD                                    71.8       274.6     -74%    LARGE  DEFICIENT
IDUKKI                                       153.9       467.7      -67%    LARGE  DEFICIENT

Karnataka:(upto 9th November)
                                                            Actual   Normal
COASTAL KARNATAKA    
DAKSHINA KANNADA                     64       275      -77%
N. I. KARNATAKA    
BAGALKOTE                                       15       126      -88%
BELAGAVI                                           18       131      -86%

DHARWAD                                           22       136       -84%
GADAG                                                   3       135       -98% 
HAVERI                                                   8       135       -94% 
KALABURGI                                        38       114       -67%
KOPPAL                                                28       120       -77%
RAICHUR                                             16       119       -86%
VIJAYAPURA                                       21       124       -83%
YADGIR                                                18       135       -86%

S. I. KARNATAKA    
BALLARI                                              13       131       -90% 
BENGALURU RURAL                        61       199       -69%
BENGALURU URBAN                       35       184        -81%
CHAMARAJANAGAR                        18       186        -91% 
CHIKABALLAPURA                          13       181        -93% 
CHIKKAMAGALURU                        26       192        -87%
CHITRADURGA                                  21       131        -84%
DAVANGERE                                       13       143        -91% 

Posted Saturday Night....5th November 2016...
Wither North East Monsoon ?

And Karnataka (Below)....

And the days are getting hot, breaking November records at Tirupathi, Ongole, Nellore, Dharmapuri and Salem....