Friday/Saturday/Sunday city forecast posted below stands valid...
Posted @ 8.50 pm Friday:

BB5 ( 998 mb) lies at 20N and 77E as on Friday afternoon. Axis slides south -eastwards from the Sindh region. 
The proposed "sympathetic  in conjunction" low (998 mb)  has formed to the North end of the trough, embedded in the axis over the Eastern Gujarat region. Clouding excessive in the SW and West quadrants. Sindh wind shear is effective.

See Current Weather Page for August performance and city wise analysis.

UAC strong at 700 hpa off Mumbai at 5.30am Friday.

Synopsis:
The Bay Low is numbered as BB5. It has tracked inland, and at 998 mb is over Orissa. 

The UAC off the west coast will persist next 3 days. May form a "sympathetic" low (slight chance) off the Northern part of west coast. But, persistent trough aloft across North Mah will remain, and axis will be around the same position as long as the low BB5 remains and tracks west.
Rainfall in Saurashtra decreasing after Saturday. Friday will see medium rains.
The off shore trough off the East coast has moved away from the land.

City Forecasts for this weekend:Friday, 31st August/Saturday 1st Sept/Sunday 2nd Sept.
Mumbai: Heavy overnight rains (Thursday Night) might Average 35-40 mms.
Actual:

South Mumbai had heavy overnight rains, accompanied by loud thunder and lightening. As per the official station at Colaba, it was 112 mms in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Friday, amounting to 107 mms at night after 8.30 pm Thursday. Vagaries recording was 47.4 mms till 8.30 am Friday. Dadar had 45 mms at night.

AWS stations show highest at Nariman Point, 125 mms in 12 hrs till 8.30 am Friday.
These heavy overnight rains forecasted by vagaries, totally skipped the suburbs, with Scruz recording just 10 mms at night, and 11 mms till 8.30 am Friday.

Friday: Overcast with showers in the day. Thunder in the evening with heavy showers. Rain amount till 8.30am Saturday: 25 mms (Avg).
Actual: A thundershower in South Mumbai in the evening. Rainfall: Colaba 24 mms, Scruz 12 mms. Avg= 18 mms.

Saturday: Overcast and increase in rain intensity over Friday. Thunder possible with showers. Windy at times. Rain amount: 35-40 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy with intermittent rains. Showers will be heavy and frequent. Rainamount: 35-40 mms.

Pune: 
Friday: Cloudy, getting more in the afternoon. Thunder and rain in the evening. Rain amount (heavy in pockets and widely distributed in different araes), but average 15 mms.
Actual : Showers in various parts. Rainfall: 17 mms.

Saturday/Sunday: overcast with cool day. Rain in the day will be about 10 mms.

Nagpur:
Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a couple of Showers in the day.Rain amounts around 5-7 mms.
Sunday: Increase in rainfall, with thundershowers. Rains will be around 25 mms. 
Marathwada reion gets rainfall on Friday thru Saturday evening.

Delhi: 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Not very consistent rains. All days will be cloudy with possible thunder and rain in the day. Different areas will get varied intensity, but there will be pockets of heavy rainfall in some areas. But on an average, the capital region should recieve about 10-15 mms /day.

Surat: heavy showers overnight.
Friday: cloudy with heavy showers in some parts. Light rain will be persisting. Rain amount: 30 mms.
Actual :Heavy rains with 17 mms .
Saturday/Sunday: Increase in rain frequency, with several showers in the day. Rain amount: 20 -30 mms/day.

.
Chennai: Not much meaningful rains this weekend. Except for the isolated rainshower in some areas, rains will not average more than 5 mms/day, in areas where it rains.

Bangalore: 
Friday/Saturday: A couple of showers. Rain amount 5 mms.
Actual: Some showers measuring 2 mms.
Sunday: A slight increase in rains as thundershowers appear on Sunday afternoon with 10-15 mms.

Synoptic situation as on Thursday:

The monsoon axis slides south, specially the eastern end. The eastern end of the axis passes thru the low off the North AP coast. 
However, the westernend is tilted Northwards in the Sindh region of Pakistan. It runs from Sindh thru Kota (Rajasthan) and thru Sagar (MP) and into the low.

Now, we have a double dose of systems. 
Exactly above the sea level low is an UAC at 850 hpa, and the trough aloft at 850hpa runs from the low westwards thru Southern MP and Northern Mah. 
Finally it runs into an fresh UAC at 700 hpa, formed Thursday evening off the North Mah coast. 

A multiple swift trough formation is seen as very benficial to the Northern Mah and Northern Marathwada regions. Aurangabad recorded 78 mms of rain till 5.30 pm Thursday. The Interiors of Northern Mah were also receiving very good rainfall Thursday...posted @ 8.40pm.

The western end continues to precipitate thundershowers in Sindh, and Karachi finally gets its first showers of the monsoon. A fresh thunderstorm lashed Karachi in the evning again. Rain measured is 12 mms....


x-------------------------x-----------------------------------------x-----------------------x--------------------x
Latest : A low has formed in the Bay off the East coast at 19N. (Was estimated only by Vagaries about a week back).
Also expecting an UAC (and maybe a low) in the trough off the west coast soon...
3 day forecast and details tonite...posted @3.30pm Thursday

x---------------------x---------------------x------------------------x---------------------------------x
The UAC in the Bay off AP coast could descend as a sea level low today (Thursday). Vagaries shall number it once it descends. 
There is a likely hood of an UAC forming in the west coast trough...posted @9.00am Thursday

The western end of the axis has shifted towards the Central Sindh (Pakistan ) region, but weakened since yesterday. Possibility of thundershowers still on in pockets of southern and central Sindh.

Maharashtra, Mumbai, Pune reservoir levels updated as on 29th August..Mumbai Page.

Sindh (Pakistan) Report:

We have mentioned the axis falling a bit southwards, and travelling thru central India, but the extreme western end of the axis, has also slid dpown and is over SE sindh, with the "gift" of an embedded UAC in the region.
The Western End of the Monsoon axis is today over the SE region of Sindh and adjoining Rajasthan. Though not very strong on surface level (998 mb), it has an embedded UAC over Rajasthan/Sindh region, "enriching" the region with moisture. Upper winds coming into Sindh are from the WD aloft, and these winds interacting with the UAC have caused much needed precipitation and thunder activity due to upper air interaction.

Our regular reader, Nasir, reports of 50 mms of rasin from a location 35 miles east of Sukkur. Other overnight rains were meagre and low, like Chhor 18 mms, Mithi 12 mms, Thata 9 mms and Sukkur 2 mms. 
Thunderstorms are active in Chhor as of Wednesday evening.
We can expect the rains to move into Karachi tonight. Hyderabad can get some thundershowers tonight and maybe tomorrow afternoon. Sukkur can also expect thunder and rain tonight. 
Though the rain amount may not be much, it will be a welcome releif as the rain amount thus far this season in these two cities has been 0 mms and 2 mms in Karachi.

We may even expect rain in Larkana on Thursday. Would expect the UAC to fizzle out by Thursday evening, with rains decreasing after Thursday. This spell in Sindh will last 2 days restricted to SE and than Southern Sindh region, with Central areas getting lesser rains. Gusty dust and thunderstorms likely in Larkana, Hyderabad and Sukkur Thursday evening.

A part of Pune received rain in a small area today, and shivajinagar obseravtory measured 34 mms till 5.30 pm Wed. Bund Garden areas received negligible rain with Lohgaon measuring only 0.5 mms. Localised rain.

An UAC at 850 hpa has formed in the Bay around 19N as on Wednesday morning. Likely to descend as a low around the same region.
Massive clouding is seen in the S/SW/SE quadrant.

Sympathy vortex and trough will strengthen along west coast from Thursday.
Details tonite...
heavy rains late afternoon early evening in Mumbai...posted @ 3.30pm


Delhi rains ease out after 11 am...currently cloudy and temp at 27c....GK2 private weather station measured 21 mms till 8.30 am and 1 mm later till 10.30 am.

Very Heavy overnight and morning rains reported by readers from Delhi and NCR.
Some of the rainfall till 8.30 am: S'Jung and Lodhi 60 mms, Ayanagar 51 mms, Noida 39 mms,  Indrapuram 32 mms, Palam 29 mms, Mungeshpur  20 mms, Gurgaon 17 mms and University 11 mms.
Seems like a localised heavy patch built up on convection. 

Though many areas are still receiving heavy rains , it seems from the doppler and cloud study, that rains should decrease and brighten up after 11 am IST.

As per current, latest position the El-Nino indicators remain close to El-Nino parameters, just on the "threshold" as the BoM Australia terms it.

ENSO conditions remain a mixed bag, indicating a "not yet" El-Nino situation.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), approached or exceeded El Niño values during the past fortnight, as the consistent above +8 in SOI values indicate an EL-NINO. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to August 26 is -8.9.

But, other indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have yet to show typical El Niño norms.
The latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral.

Various Forecast Models SSt indications for Sept/Oct/Nov.

MODEL / 
GROUP                              1-3 MONTHS(Sep 2012 to Nov 2012

Australian Bureau of Meteorology Neutral/Warm

NCEP (US)                                  Neutral/Warm

NASA Goddard GMAO (US)                 Warm

MeteoFrance                                     Neutral/Warm

ECMWF (EU)                                                 Warm

Japan Met. Agency                                 Warm

UK Met Office t                                         Warm

On going through various models, predictions and views, vagaries would be of the opinion that at least for September, the El-Nino would NOT materialise to full scale levels.It would remain neutral.

On 1st September, vagaries will put up a note on SWm Withdrawal and NEM Advance Parameters....


Mumbai was low on rains as per our forecast. On Tuesday, Scruz got 11 mms and vagaries and colaba 1 mm.
Mahableshwar received 38 mms till 5.30pm.

Brief note on current El-Nino situation will be up a bit late, under preparation...

Vagaries mentions of the trough axis position and updates its readers periodically.

The question i ask is , why is the IMD going on mentioning of a low in Central India ? 
1. There is no low seen even in IMD MSLP charts. 2. The low, which was there, has merged into the axis 3/4 days ago mentioned in vagaries. 3. In many a years, i have never seen any low linger on for so many days. Even the associated clouding has disappeared long back.
Currently, the axis runs through Rajasthan/Northern MP, straight along 25N into Bangladesh and Assam.

The vortex in the West coast trough will move North today (see vagaries' Tuesday forecast in yesterday's post below) . I expect it to move in the South Gujarat region by today as an UAC, and possibily move west into Saurashtra. Favourable conditions may propogate this. 

x----------------x------------------------x-------------------------------x------------------------x----------------------x
There are several factors are to be considered while studying or monitoring the SWM withdrawal. 
1. An anticyclone starts forming at sea level and 850 hpa level initially in Sindh and spreading to NW India. 
2. An anticyclone moves towards central India at the 200 hpa level.
3. The SW cross equatorial winds weaken.
4. Extreme High pressure initial formation starts in Lower Siberai regions.
5. Upper air stability visible observations to be seen.
6. The axis starts movin Southwards, and for the NEM, rotates the wind directions.
7. Once these commence, we can start chasing the NEM...
..........more on this later. 

Analysis sent by GSB on Inter Active Page....

The Monsoon axis is now almost stationary from Sindh(Pakistan) in the west thru Jaisalmer and running thru North MP along the 25N line, into Bangladesh and further Eastwards.
Another trough "aloft" runs along the same lines as the sea level trough.See Thai Chart. 

Tuesday would also bring rain showers, a few heavy, to Haryana. Delhi NCR will surely get some regional showers on Tuesday, with weather brightening by Wednesday.

The West Coast off shore trough remains strengthened, but i am searching all charts for the vortex. Its possible the vortex may just re-appear a bit to the North, along the South Gujarat coast by late tonite.
The combined effect of vortex and upper trough is likely to bring rains to Eastern Gujarat region (Ahmadabad) and adjoining regions of Eastern Saurashtra on Tuesday. The Southern Cambay gulf region and Surat will see some precipitations (around 30 mms) on Tuesday.

Wednesday could see the vortex disappearing. 

The erstwhile low having merged in the axis, the trough off the East coast has become less marked, or feeble. The line of wind discontinuity along TN has also vanished.
Normal Westerlies will get a bit strong along Chennai region. Shall monitor the formation of the trough again as and when the new low appears in the bay, since a lot depends on its position. Thunder and local activity around Chennai and interior TN may be subdued next few days. 

Note on the current El-Nino Situation will be on Vagaries tomorrow..

Mumbai:
Monday 27th: Cool day not going over 26/27c.
Actual: Day was at 26.6c Monday.

Intermittent heavy rains in the day Monday, with potential floodings in low areas. Rains should decrease in intensity by late noon. commuting and mobility will be better and easier by evening. Night will get a few showers again.Rain Amount till 5.30 pm 75-90 mms and another 25 mms by 8.30 am Tuesday (Average).
Actual Rain 8.30am-8.30am (Tuesday) Colaba 90 mms, Vagaries 77 mms, Scruz 63 mms.Vagaries and Colaba were the highest day's rain this year.

Tuesday 28th: As the vortex lingers, the rainfall will be less on Tuesday. Heavy showers though will break in occasionally, but not prolonged to cause flooding. Lessening even further today. Rain Amount: 30-40 mms (Average).

Wednesday 29th: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Definite decrease in intensity, but still will manage 25-30 mms(average).

Mumbai 5.30 pm rainfall updated below..night forecast holds good.
Mumbai:
Its all happening in a hurry. The vortex rushed up the coast and the axis slide down to almost central India. Normally this would have taken place by Tuesday.

Monday 27th: Cool day not going over 26/27c.

Intermittent heavy rains in the day, with potential floodings in low areas. Rains should decrease in intensity by late noon. commuting and mobility will be better and easier by evening. Night will get a few showers again.Rain Amount till 5.30 pm 75-90 mms and another 25 mms by 8.30 am Tuesday (Average).
Actual Rain 8.30am-5.30pm (Monday) Colaba 66 mms, Vagaries 55 mms, Scruz 45 mms.Alibag measured 78 mms.

Tuesday 28th: As the vortex lingers, the rainfall will be less on Tuesday. Heavy showers though will break in occasionally, but not prolonged to cause flooding. Lessening even further today. Rain Amount: 30-40 mms (Average).

Wednesday 29th: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Definite decrease in intensity, but still will manage 25-30 mms(average).


Latest Development as on Monday Morning:
1. Monsoon Axis slides South, almost running thru 25N line across India.
2. The vortex in the West coast trough moves north and is off Goa Coast. Sliding up along the Karnataka coast last 24 hrs precipitating good rains.
3. Vortex at -30 depth. Forecast was estimated by vagaries over region by Tuesday originally.
4. Boosting of trough and axis line rains possible with strengthening MJO in our region and "Tembin" pulse should bring in the next Low as mentioned.
5. Good precipitation expected along Konkan. Initially restricted upto Konkan, not advancing into Gujarat today.

Next Update follows around 1 pm

Mumbai Scruz saw overnight rains of 36 mms and Colaba 28 mms. Thane 44 mms and Panvel 38 mms.
Low temp was 24.2c at Colaba, a welcome relief after sweltering hot nights. Pressure drops to 1005 hpa in the morning reading. 
Monday will see intermittent showers, heavy and flooding low areas. Rain amount next 9 hrs: 55-75 mms.
Rainfall from 8.30 am - 9.40 am (Monday)...25 mms (vagaries)
Mumbai 3 day Forecast coming up shortly....

Current Low in Bay persists off Orissa /W.Bengal coast as at 05.30am IST.Trough from the low stretches southwards to South TN coast. 

As Typhoon "Tembin" embeds itself in the extended Monsoon Trough, better possibility of Low in the Bay around 29th August. ( Only forecasted by Vagaries as yet).

Also, as estimated by vagaries, a vortex has formed on Sunday morning (IST) off the Kerala/Karnataka coast at 700 mb, (depth velocity at -20). (Formed earlier than estimated). 

Heavy downpours could result in Kerala and coastal Karnataka on Sunday thru Tuesday. Heavy rains could extend to Konkan from Monday (shall monitor the vortex).

Vagaries had estimated heavy showers in the Nilgiri district for Saturday night. But, as explained yesterday, a formation of the line of discontinuity moved the thunderstorm areas Eastwards, as the winds curved 90 degress (NW> SW) along the "line", and as a result, Chennai got heavy rains on Saturday night. 

The MJO is coming out of its weak phase rapidly, and going into "neutral" mode. Possibly can get into a moderately (not very) strong phase from the 26th of August.

I do not expect much from the Low mentioned below, hence do not think it should be numbered.
But, I expect another "better" low in the Bay around the 29th of August. 

The mentioned vortex (Friday Blog) off the West coast may form by Tuesday, and strengthen the trough.

A Low has detached itself from the monsoon axis in the North, and stands independently below the axis. Situated on the Orissa/W.Bengal coast, and is at 1000 mb. 
A trough runs down south from this low. Running along the Easy Coast, the trough cuts inland from North TN coast, and at 1200 UTC Saturday, shows a line of wind discontinuity from North TN coast down Southwards. Winds to the West of the "line" are NW and SW to the East of the "Line."
The progress of the Low and trough needs to be monitored next 12 hrs.


Saturday Thunderstorms Lash Chennai...
Pradeep promptly sends these figures..
IMD official Rainfall in mm till 8.30 pm

Taramani – 86

Marina (DGP Office) – 2
Ennore – 0
Nungambakkam – 0
Redhills – 0

IMD official Rainfall figures in mm till 7.30 pm

Avadi – 38
Sholliganallur (Sathyabama University) – 16
Guindy (Anna University) – 14
Puzhal – 9
Kattupakkam (SRM University) – 6

Rainfall figures in mm till 8.00 pm

Uttiramerur – 36
Madurantakam – 31
Ellapuram – 13
Kaveripakkam – 7
R.K.Pet – 6
Kancheepuram – 5
Kadambathur – 4

Wow 72 mm in just 45 minutes in Taramani...Southern Chennai really got battered

Disappointing .....

Nungambakkam 0 mm
Marina Beach 0 mm
Redhills 0 mm

 Saturday Delhi NCR seen getting overcast..Radar shows cloud cover increasing and region gearing up for afternoon precipitation..Mungeshpur has recorded 36 mms and Ayanager 7 mms.

Saturday/Sunday forecast  on Current Weather Page (to give preference to this article below).

A New Dimension has been added to Meteorology in the last 20 years.Sprites, A fresh and newly found phenomena, hitherto unknown to us , was discovered as early as 1989.And was systematically imaged and studies carried out only after the satellites were able to locate the sprites. The first color image of one wasn’t taken until 1994.
 
An example of how energy can be exchanged between lower and higher regions of Earth’s atmosphere,

Back on April 30, Expedition 31 astronauts aboard the ISS captured this photo of a red sprite hovering above a bright flash of lightning over Myanmar. 

Elusive atmospheric phenomena, sprites are extremely brief bursts of electromagnetic activity that are associated with powerful lightning discharges, but exactly how and why they form isn’t yet known — although recent research (along with some incredible high-speed video) is shedding new light on sprites.

Although the appearance of bright high-altitude flashes above thunderstorms have been reported by pilots for nearly a century, it wasn’t until 1989 that a sprite was captured on camera —and in 1994 a clear study picture was taken...

So-named because of their elusive nature, sprites appear as several clusters of red tendrils above a lighting flash followed by a breakup into smaller streaks, often extending as high as 55 miles (90 km) into the atmosphere. The brightest region of a sprite is typically seen at altitudes of 40-45 miles (65-75 km).

Because they occur above storms, only last for a thousandth of a second and emit light in the red portion of the visible spectrum (to which our eyes are the least sensitive) studying sprites has been notoriously difficult for atmospheric scientists. Space Station residents may get great views but they have lots of other things to do in the course of their day besides sprite hunting! Luckily, a team of scientists were able to capture some unprecedented videos of sprites from airplanes in the summer of 2011, using high-speed cameras and help from Japan’s NHK television.

Based on the latest research, it’s suggested that sprites form as a result of a positive electrical charge within a lightning strike that reaches the ground, which leaves the top of the cloud negatively charged — a one-in-ten chance that then makes conditions above the cloud “just right” for a sprite to form higher in the atmosphere.

“Seeing these are spectacular,” said Hans C. Stenbaek-Nielsen, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Alaska, where much sprite research has been conducted. “But we need the movies, because not only are they so fast that you could blink and miss them, but they emit most of their light in red, where the human eye is relatively blind.”

Image from Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Center,nset image: the first color image of a sprite  (NASA/UAF.) Video: NHK.

By Jason Major, Universe Today.

Rare Lightning Sprites Caught On Camera | Video

For cities, See Actual v/s Forecast in post below.
Outer townships of Mumbai on mainland can get showers early morning, and late evening due to developing cumulus clouds. Mumbai pressure Friday morning at 1009 mb.(See vagaries Readings).


Though the rainfall in Central and NW India has improved the overall deficit and monsoon position, there are some regions of the country which have not recieved any rains at all.

Kutch Region of Gujarat has received no rains at all, with many stations at 0 mms (Abdasa, Nakhatrana) and the capital Bhuj having measured just 2 mms.
Reports from Kutch state of the ground watre having gone down to "un-reachable" levels, and all the reservoirs are dry.

We can safely say that the SWM has not yet reached the Kutch area of India.

Saurashtra is another such region facing acute shortage of water and rainfall.

Kutch and Saurashtra: : -82%
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH Deficit % as on 22nd August           
AMRELI                                   -73
BHAVNAGAR                         -56
DIU                                           -83
JAMNAGAR                            -84
JUNAGARH                            -84
KUTCH                                    -99             
PORBANDAR                          -91
RAJKOT     
SURENDRANAGAR              -74
SUBDIVISION RAINFALL    -82

 Such are the high Extremes of deficit figures in Gujarat.

Maharashtra Drought Regions are depicted in this re-Organised map:

In Pakistan, Sindh, bordering Kutch, has received negligible rains this Monsoon.
Major cities Rainfall till 22 August:
Karachi: 1 mm, Hyderabad (Sindh): 1 mm, Sukkur: 0 mms, Larkana 0 mms, Jacobabad 3 mms.

For Kutch and Sindh regions, it is very crucial and critical, as the Monsoon withdraws from these regions normally by first week of September.

Drought Scene In India Improves in the last 15 days...Deficit rains decrease from  -18% on 5th August to  -14% on 22nd August...See Region wise Comparison map on Current Weather Page

Wednesday's actual performance put up against forecast date, see below.. 
2 changes in Mumbai weather observed on Thursday morning.  1). Pressure rises to1008 which is highest since May (See vagaries' Readings Page if interested) and  2) winds were SSE in the morning.

If interested, Read my views on Cloud seeding here...http://epaper.dnaindia.com/story.aspx?id=25325&boxid=15340&ed_date=2012-08-23&ed_code=820009&ed_page=2


Cherrapunjcrosses 10000 mm for the year 2012

Peninsula Giants in Maharashtra and Karnataka stole the show in August with stations such as Kollur, Agumbe, Kitwade, Amboli, Shiragon, Tamini and Dawdi all getting close to 2000 mm in 20 days in August.

Cherrapunji, after posting monstrous rainfalls of 3600 mm in July and 3450 mm in June 2012, August was silent till yesterday with just 500 mm till 19th. 

Yesterday it got around 105 mm and followed it with a 384 mm today. I posted earlier that Cherrapunji would cross 10000 mm mark by mid August. 

Here is the list of instances in past few years, when Cherrapunji has crossed 10000 mm and the date of crossing is as follows -

2012 - 21st August, 2012 (10298 mm till date)

2011 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 8372 mm)

2010 - 23rd July, 2010 (ended year at 13472 mm)

2009 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 9070 mm)

Will it cross 14000 mm mark for the year, i dont think so personally. In last 20 years of rainfall in Cherrapunji it managed to cross 14000 mm mark only thrice.

1995 - 14210 mm

1998 - 14537 mm

2004 - 14791 mm

Last time when hell broke loose in Cherrapunji in a Calender Year was in 1974 when  it got around 24555 mm rainfall with 8205 mm falling in July alone.
By Pradeep (Prepared for Vageries, Indian Weatherman and Tamil Nadu Weatherman)
x------x----------------------------------x--------------------------x---------------------------------x-------------------x


3 days Forecast for Wednesday 22nd, Thursday 23rd, Friday 24th: (Rain amounts shown are upto 8.30 am next morning).

Mumbai:
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Couple of Passing showers in different areas will bring about 10-15 mms of rain.
Actual: couple of showers early morning in South Mumbai, and last evening in North. Here at vagaries (Mahalaxmi) almost no rain. Scruz :38 mms, Colaba 19mms and vagaries  2.4 mms. Avg = 20 mms.

Thursday: Again partly cloudy with sunny spells, and day temp rising to 32c. Rains in a couple of showers will be upto 7 mms.
Day was hot with Scruz showing 32c and vagaries 34c. Rainfall measured 1 mm.

Friday: Sunny with cloudy intervals. Day warmer at 33c and real feel at 37c. Rains will be scattered measuring upto 5 mms.

Pune: Wed/Thursday/Friday: Days will be around 32c. Not much significant rainfall with partly cloudy skies with light drizzles spraying about 2-5 mms/day.

Surat: No major increase in rains, with daily scattred showers in parts measuring upto 5 mms/day.Decreasing Thursday/Friday.

Delhi NCR: Sharp showers expected late Tuesday night.

Wednesday: Overcast to Cloudy with a couple of sharp showers in different areas measuring upto 15 mms/day.

Actual: Some sharp showers in South delhi with Lodhi getting 39 mms, S'Jung 28 mms. Palam managed 1 mm and Ridge and Gurgaon 6 mms. Najafgarh got 2 mms, while there was no rain in Jafarpur.Avg = 12 mms.

Thursday: Decreasing rains. Cloudy day with temp at 33c. A few showers in different areas may guage up 10 mms of rain.
Few showers in different areas. Rain measured 9.6 mm at S'Jung

Friday: Partly cloudy with light rains in some parts. Measuring upto 5 mms.

Chennai:
Wednesday: Localised thundershowers in some parts after a hot day at around 35c, real feel at 39c. Rain amounts: upto 7 mms.
Actual:No rain recorded anywhere in Chennai. Day temp was 33c at NGM and 34c at MKB.

Thursday:Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and some rain. Days around 35c, and stuffy night. Rains upto 5-7 mms.
Day temp was 35c and not much rains seen. Almost nil.

Friday: Partly cloudy with chance of a measurable thunderstorm by evening. Guage will measure 15-20 mms rains (average).

Delhi NCR: Vagaries' Tuesday estimate of "increase in rains" and "Heavy to moderate rains" can prove correct.
Good precipitation on Tuesday in the NCR , with East and South areas getting heavy downpours from late morning....the entire region may get heavier showers by afternoon.



See Mumbai Page for Monday readings of Mumbai and Panvel..

For the latest ALl India Toppers, covering 75 days of SWM 2012, Pradeep has got some very unusual stations and records. Would like to compliment and appreciate his hard work and efforts.
On behalf of Vagaries, and all its readers, we are grateful and thank him for his contribution exclusively for Vagaries...see Current Weather Page

GSB's analysis on Inter Active Page..very informative GSB, and keep them coming..
Curiosity Blasts 1st Mars Rock with Powerful Laser Zapper...See Space News Page

BB3 is estimated to track westwards on Monday, and fizzle out by night.
Monsoon axis moves North into HP and Utterakhand, and thru UP into the Bay
Off shore trough along west coast remains very weak, and along East coast moves inland and subsequently weakens.

Outlook for Monday, 20th, Tuesday 21st and Wednesday 22nd:

Monday 20th: 
Rains: Heavy in West MP and adjoining Rajasthan. Moderate in Eastern Gujarat, (including Bharuch), Goa and coastal Karnataka.

Tuesday 21st:
Rains: Very Heavy falls in Utterakhand. Heavy to moderate in Haryana, Delhi NCR, adjoining UP, HP plains and hills and Punjab. 
In AP,only regions around Vizag get moderate rains on Tuesday. Light rains in Konkan and coastal Karnataka.

Wednesday 22nd: 
Very heavy in Utterakhand. Heavy to moderate in Punjab, Delhi NCR, Haryana and adjoining UP. Light to weak along west coast.

No significant increase or potential of rainfall enhancement these 3 days in Southern Peninsula, all Maharashtra, all Karnataka, AP and Gujarat.

No system or movement of major rainfall towards Pakistan.

Mumbai city: 
Monday: Partly cloudy with sunny intervals. A few showers, passing types in some regions. Rain Amount: 15 mms.
Tuesday: Sunny spells with a few passing showers. Decrease in rains overall. Rise in day temperatures.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with sunny spells. Hot day. A shower in some parts. Rain Amount: 5-7 mms.
Rainfall decreasing to 10-15 mms/day next 3 days in townships of Thane/Panvel and around.

Pune: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy with light rains in parts. Rain amounts upto 5 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: 
Monday: cloudy with light drizzles in some parts. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Increase in rains, specially from Tuesday evening. Some heavy showers with winds in many parts. Rain Amount: 30 mms.

Surat: Monday: Cloudy, with light rains in parts. Rain Amounts: 5-7 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Decrease in rainfall with warm day. Not much rainfall.

Chennai: A sharp shower possible on Monday night in some regions. Subdued rains, or localised thundershowers in the evening till Wednesday. Rain Amounts upto 7-10 mms in areas where it rains.

Hyderabad: No significant rains. 

Bangalore: No significant rains increase till Wednesday, with some shower (local) in some parts. Rain amount around 5-7 mms where it rains. Day may cross 30c.

A short burst of rains, i would call it a blip, occured pre dawn, Sunday, over the Mumbai and surroundings. 

BB3, effect managed to direct some moisture along a small 100 km areas (North/South) and brought moderate rains. 
Not very heavy. Rest of west coast (including N.Konkan) remained weakish. In fact Scruz was the highest with 83 mms.The trough is still weak.

As per vagaries' Sunday forecast, Konkan rains were weak during Sunday.
During the day, 8.30pm Sunday, save Dhanu (62 mms), most other stations got less than 5 mms. Mumbai Scruz got 5 mms and Cloaba 2 mms, while Vagaries recorded 25 mms and Mahableshwar got 31 mms in the day.
The expected rains did occur in Vidharbha, with Chandrapur getting 85 mms, Gondia 59 mms, Yeotmal 31 mms and Nagpur 13 mms during the day , Sunday.

What next with BB3 ?...coming up around mid night......

Rains slow down in Mumbai in the day time Sunday, with Colaba and Scruz measuring less than 5 mms after 8.30am..vagaries measured 25 mms on Sunday till 5.30pm. True to city day forecast, the city had 2/3 showers in the day, with sunny intervals.

BB3 moved slightly west and at 998 mb is at 82E and 22N, almost same position. 
Initial reports (phone) from Marathwada speak of no rain there..but waiting for more news from farmers.



Yes guys, rains in Mumbai since pre dawn hours Sunday, is the effect of BB3 moving west as a deep low.
Vagaries had predicted aan increase in Mumbai rains Sunday ,if the low deepens and moves west (on Thursday). With both conditions in order, its result is 6 hrs earlier than estimated. (Was  difficult to envisage exact time on Thursday -:))
Anyway, last position of BB3 was almost stationary of previous position given on vagaries, and is at 82E and 22N. and at 996 mb.
With Nagpur getting heavy rains, the Vidharbha rainfall and North AP rains are on as anticipated, and rains will spread to Northern districts of Marathwada. 
Sunday forecast remains valid.

Mumbai colaba measured 27.4 mms, vagaries 45.0 mms and Scruz 82.8 mms till 8.30am Sunday.

Mumbai rains will "slow down " after 11 am Sunday, and brighten up a bit. However, day will remain cloudy, 3/4 showers intersparsed in the day, but showers will be of shorter duration (not intermittent like overnight), and rainfall may be around 25-30 mms (average) next 12 hrs.(See short term forecast)

Mumbai, Pune and All Maharashtra Lake and Reservoir levels as on 18th August Put up on Mumbai Page.
Mumbai Weather actual also updated.

BB3 deepens further and at 996 mb, is situated at 82E and 22N. Clouding in W/SW quadrant.
Precipitation moving into Northern AP and Vidarbha as estimated.

BB3 stationary but deepens to 998 mb as on Saturday Morning...associated clouding in S/SW quadrant. Covering Orissa and Northern AP (as estimated). Now, let wait and see if Hyderabad gets the predicted rains.

Bangalore Readers, Very Good and Easy to Understand Analysis of Bangalore Rainfall done with meticulous hard Work by GSB: see Inter Active Page...Thanks.


A Low (BB3) has formed along the Orissa coast, with its centre near Bhubaneshwar.
Now, with the formation of BB3, i had mentioned it necessary to monitor the axis.
Well, the axis has moved further North, and is almost snugged into the Himalayan foothills.
As the SE winds strengthen the Hills with moisture, the states of HP, Utteranchal and Western Nepal can expect heavy rains from Sunday. Local streams and rivers can get flooded.

The axis of the Monsoon runs through Pakistan Punjab, Northern Rajasthan, Delhi, Adjoining UP, Bihar and into the Bay from Gangetic W.Bengal.

The UAC off the Orissa coast is persisting in the region. Should descend to sea level as a low at 1000 mb by Friday afternoon. The Low will be centred at Bhubaneshwar.

The latest MJO situation is seen in this map below. The "regular" weak MJO shown in models, seems to have been "distrubed" by a restricted surge along the Arabian Sea. But, overall, the MJO is weak in our seas.

Seeing the strength of the Bay pulses, and the current weakness of the MJO, i do not hope to expect much from this low. Will move as a weak low at 1000 mb and fizzle out by Sunday over East MP.

Friday 17th/Saturday 18th/Sunday19th Outlook:
Rainfall Weak over Konkan.
Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains and same  with TN ( save Nilgiri Hills which may get rain Friday) and interior Karnataka.

Friday 17th: Precipitation will be good in Orissa, adjoining W.Bengal and North AP. 
Rainfall weakens abruptly in Rajasthan and all of NW India and adjoining North Pakistan.
Weak monsoon along the Konkan and slightly better off along coastal Karnataka.

Saturday 18th: as the low tracks west, we see rainfall spreading into Northern AP and adjoining Vidharbha, with heavy falls from Vizag to Hyderabad. Hyderabad can can intermittent rans on Saturday, with heavy falls. The plains of Punjab and adjoining plains of HP (Amb region) may get some showers on Sunday. Coastal Karnataka sees a better day with moderate rains 3-5 cms. 
Southern Peninsual, Interior Madhya Mah. and Konkan remains weak.

Sunday 19th: As the low starts fading, the rainfall is restricted to Vidarbha, adjoining East MP, North AP (including Hyderabad). Weakening along entier west coast.

Again, throughout these 3 days, rains are negligible to nil in NW India and all Pakistan. Sindh remains dry and hot.
Nepal: Western regions get good precipitations as the axis remains in the Himalayan hills.

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Friday/Saturday: Sunny spells with warm days,around 32/33c. A few passing showers may occur towards evening which could  make the nights stuffy. Rain Amounts: 7-10 mm/day.

Sunday might see some increase in rains from afternoon, if the system heads due west or NW, and if it retains its capacity.

Pune: Partly cloudy with warm days. Light drizzles in some parts in the afternoon. Thunderclouds by evening on the horizon on Sunday. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms/day.

Surat: Weak rainfall situation with upto 7-10 mms/day.

Delhi: Partly cloudy with not much of any meaningfull rains. Showers in some areas on Sunday evening possible. 

Hyderabad: City gets increased rainfall from Saturday thru Sunday. Rain Amounts 25-30 mms Saturday/Sunday. 

Chennai: Local thundershowers in some areas on Friday, but decreasing by Saturday and Sunday.

Bangalore: Thundershowers possible in some parts on Friday evening. No significant increase on Saturday/Sunday. Rains on the weekend may measure upto 7 mms.

Pradeep's All India Rainfall figures have been Put up on Current Weather Page...again superb effort as usual..Vagaries is thankfull to Pradeep for presenting these details..

Night Update: UAC formed over Bay off Orissa coast.

But, do not expect axis to move South. Low may form and track along axis and merge into it.
So, break monsoon conditions from tomorrow south of axis will start and continue next 4 days. 
West coast weak rains continue for this week. Interior Mah, and interior South Peninsula rains decrease considerably.

Thursday: 
Mumbai will be sunny with partly cloud cover at times. Warm day rising to 32/33c. Rain Amount: 5-7 mms in areas where it showers.

Chennai: The "popping" up of thundershowers decreases after Thursday.

Latest Drought (improved) position Map as on 15th Aug. Put up with 5th Aug map for comparison..on Current Weather Page

A Low can form the Bay on 16th evening..off the Orissa coast. May be initially at 1000 mb, with likely hood of deepening later.
Vagaries had estimated a low after 12th in the August forecast.http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2012/08/special-monsoon-watch-for-august.html

As the axis has moved North, i would not like to comment on the track today, maybe we see the axis behavior by tomorrow. 
HP has recieved heavy rains, with Kullu getting 33 mms and Manali getting 48 mms, and Simla 25 mms, Dharamsala 39 mms and Chandigarh 21 mms till Wednesday morning.

Monsoon Axis moving Northwards. Along the North Rajasthan/North MP, UP line.
As the line moves up, precipitation expected again in the Hill States.
The West Coast trough weakens, in fact chart shows it is almost gone, with "ridges "forming along the coast.
The East Coast trough persisits due to the Eastern end of the axis remaing in a "low" loop.
Not yet confirming about the low announced by IMD...shall make a statement when sure of it..

Mumbai Observations (for Mumbai Readers):
Just yesterday, i had seen huge cloud tops forming. On personal observations today evening (Tuesday), i saw the clouding over the Western sky over Mumbai getting into a "flattening" mode. That means, as per what i saw, around 50% of the clouds were strato -cumulus, not developing or rising. Though there were some moderate rise in some clouds, the rising "trend" was reversing, to some extent. This indicates a stable upper atmosphere condition developing. 
This is an initial observation, and the tendency of cloud formation has to be followed up. In cases like this, in this season, things can change again in a couple of days.

Today's TOI mentions of Artic Ice breaking off from main chunk...due to "you know what"...But now we now the real reason...An Unusual Storm over the Artic Ocean...Read on International Page.

This is what global warming looks like..&.

Snow record broken in South Africa..See Global Warming Hysteria Page. 

Reports of good rainfall on Saturday/Sunday from Gujarat and Rajasthan are coming in. 

An UAC from the monsoon axis has emerged strong, and is over SE Rajasthan as on Sunday afternoon.
I have tried to keep it as simple as possible, but, Please read the following forecast carefully Day by Day, lest it gets confusing.

Monday,13th: 
UAC at 700/850 hpa remains over the Southern Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat region. Rains over the Central Gujarat (Ahmedabad/Baroda) continue on Monday.
Precipitation extends into Eastern Rajasthan and will be concentrated South of Jaipur.
Kota and Jaipur too get some good showers, and adjoining MP region (Gwalior).
Off shore trough along west coast extends weakly from Coastal Karnataka to Kerala. Rainfall showing slight decrease in Coastal Karnataka. Decrease in Konkan rainfall too.
Gusty SW winds sweep Saurashtra and South Gujarat coast.
Vidharbha regions get some showers in regional pockets, between 5-15mms.

Monday, Moderate precipitation in Western Nepal.
Some precipitation in of SE Sindh region of Pakistan.Sukkur may get very light rain on Monday.

Tuesday,14th:
Weak rains along Konkan, but moderate (5-9 cms) along Karnataka coast. The trough persisits weakly along Karnataka coast.
Rainfall concentrates on Eastern Rajasthan and adjoing MP. Moving away from Gujarat. 
As the coastal rains creep inland, S.I. Karnataka may get some light to medium rainfall, ranging from 10-30 mms. 

Wednesday 15th:
Rainfall will continue over Rajasthan barring extreme West of the state. UAC finally fizzles out on Thursday.
Jaipur can get good rainfall. 
S.I.Karnataka (Bangalore) can get medium rains on Wednesday too.

Wednesday, Northern Pakistan region can get light precipitation. Islamabad can recieve light rains.
Nepal, continuing rains in Western Nepal regions.

Not much to write about for Madhya Mah and AP for all these 3 days.
Interior TN will be dry, except the region adjoining S.I.Karnataka.

Thursday, axis crashes into Himalays, and break monsoon conditions could affect the sub-continent. 

City Forecasts:
Mumbai: Decreasing trend from Tuesday.
Monday 13th: Decrease in cloudiness. Day will be Partly cloudy and warm, with a couple of showers in some areas. Not really giving a boost to the total rainfall with just about 10 mms.

Tuesday 14th: Sunny spells and cloudy intervals. A showers or two in some areas. Rain Amount: Average Upto 10 mms.

Wednesday 15th: A few showers, marked decrease in rains. Amount: 5-10 mms.

Pune: Not much of widespread heavy rains seen.
Mon/Tues/Wed: Cloudy with sunny spells. Light rains or a moderate shower in the afternoon restricted to small areas. Rain Amount: upto 5 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: 
Monday:Thundershower possible in some regions on Monday evening. Rain Amount: 10 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy day with light drizzles in some parts. Rain amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.

Surat: Rainfall just about decreasing after Tuesday. Tuesday may see 2/3 showers amounting to 15-20 mms. 
Tuesday/Wednesday will see a decrease in rains with skies brightning, and rains will be less than 10-12 mms/day.

Chennai: 
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: The "popping up" of thunder showers in the evening continues.
Warm and hot Tuesday, maybe seeing 35/36c.  The humidity is high, and the convection rate encouraging with moderatelt strong NW winds. Daily rain will average out to around 7-10 mms in different areas.

Bangalore: Rainfall on Tuesday:
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy with an occasional evening shower. Tuesday/Wednesday city can get some good showers in the evening averaging around 10-12 mms.

Hyderabad: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Nothing much to write about with almost dry conditions. Practically no rains.In fact, AP may not get any meaningfull rains.

In Pakistan, Karachi and Hyderabad (Pakistan) practically dry. 
Sukkur may get light rain on Monday, and Islamabad on Wednesday.

Rainfall Stats worked out by GSB on Inter Active Page..Must see.