Saturday, October 31, 2015

Mumbai, oh what a Sunday !...The east winds keep the sea breeze at Bay till late in the day, and warms the day at 35c !

Posted Saturday 31st October Night:

A continuation review from Last Posted Blog on Last Saturday (24th)...(Also gives me a chance to evaluate Vagaries' Outlooks):

1. The Low off Sri Lanka persisted for a few days from Monday, and now today, having tracked North, is located off the North TN Coast. The Low (BB-9), will track NE along the coast (and in the trough) and dissipate off the Odisha coast in a few days.

Much against our expectations, Chennai received 14 mms as on (last) Thursday morning and another 13 mms only as on Friday morning Around 28/30 mms against 50 mms estimated in Vagaries). Some International models had shown 150/170 mms for Thursday and Friday, enlightening the hopes of the Chennaites.
Some parts of Chennai got heavy showers on Saturday, the official Minambakkam station recorded 10 mms till 8.30 pm IST.
For Chennai, the wait for good meaningful rains continues. Well, BB-9 is moving NE, along a well defined trough, so at the most another day of moderate thunder shower for Chennai...maybe around 20 mms ?

So, with BB-9 "showing its pace", East coast towns can expect showers on Sunday.

Kolkata, which is waiting for a good effect from BB-9,  will see some overnight showers, light to medium on Saturday night, and extending into passing showers on Sunday.

AS-2, as we all now, has become a super Cyclone, Chapala at estimated 950 mb core pressure, and is moving towards the Yemen Coast.
With favourable conditions and lack of dry air (dry air is only to the South, which now has no decreasing effect) Chapala will remain strong and as a severe cyclone on landfall. Landfall on the Yemen /South Oman coast will be around night of 1st or 2nd November.
Kerala was dumped with heavy rains last week.

Another factor on expected lines was that with the passing of the Western Disturbance O-3, the nights in North plains and Central India started showing the marginal drop.
Punjab towns are now between 12-15c, Delhi S'jung is about 15/16c and Rajasthan towns are around 15-17c.
From Thursday/Friday morning, Gujarat and interior Mah saw a slight fall in night temperatures.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Posted Saturday 24th Evening:

1. Continuing from yesterday's Post, the  latest shows  the Low, off the East coast  of Sri Lanka has formed as expected.
The Sri Lanka Low, BB-7, should track North, towards the TN coast, and approach Chennai. The system will deepen to a depression and track into the A.P. coast by mid next week.
The trough in the Arabian Sea persists, and a Low is expected in the trough West off Kerala.
Tuesday heavy rains expected in Kerala.

Chennai: Few showers till Monday. Rains and NEM expected from 27th, Tuesday. By Wednesday, the rains pick up in intensity, and Chennai can expect around 55-60 mms by Thursday morning, and another (about) 40 mms by Friday morning. 
( A  4 day advance forecast may vary a bit.)

2.The AS-2, will also track North initially, and dump rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka on Wednesday and Thursday.
Goa can expect some spill over light showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.

3.O-3 now moving into North India from Pakistan. Rain/Snow expected in Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday and Monday. Punjab and parts of Haryana can expect winter showers on Sunday and Monday. 
The passing of the WD will see clear skies and sharp fall in night temperatures in North and NW India. Places in Punjab may see the nights falling to 12-13c on Thursday/Friday morning.
( A  4 day advance forecast may vary a bit.)

Delhi NCR can expect thunder showers in many parts of the region on Tuesday. Some chances of extension of showers on Wednesday morning.. From Thursday, NCR may see a fall in night temperatures, touching around 14-15c.

Cooler nights and drop by 2/3c expected from Thursday/Friday morning in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra. Showers will be occurring in regions of M.P. on Wednesday...after which there will be a sharp fall in night temperatures.

Light rain expected in Mumbai on Sunday.

There will be no Vagaries Update on Sunday 25th, Monday 26th and Tuesday 27th.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Posted Friday Night:

Mumbai: Finally, finally we see the day temperatures drop (exactly by 2c from peak as estimated)...With the day's high at 35.3c at Scruz on Friday and 33.9c at Colaba. Now, we will see the nights getting more comfortable also, after  a record 28.2c minimum at Colaba on Friday morning.

1. UAC in both the Arabian Sea and South Bay persist, and will become Lows as predicted...As of now, we predict the same as given yesterday...
NEM rains can start in Chennai from 27th as expected...
Next Update on Saturday evening by 5 pm IST.

2. Western Disturbance O-3 Precipitating over North Pakistan from Saturday. coming on schedule..

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Posted Thursday Night:

Normally, MJO activity is very much subdued or is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episode.
Currently, the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) is seen strengthening ( slightly to neutral stage) in our seas from the 26th...and its effect could last till around 5 th November. 

The existing UAC in the Southern Bay, embedded in an Easterly trough, will in all likely hood descend as a Low, and deepen . The system should track North towards Tamil Nadu.
NEM is likely to set in by the 28th of October. 
Good rains are likely, as the rains push into interior TN.

Chennai: Getting ready for the NEM rains...starting from Tuesday 27th and gradually increasing to downpours by Thursday 29th. Heavy thunder showers on Wednesday night. Thursday could accumulate  around 50 mms in 24 hrs.

Western Disturbance O-4 to precipitate rains in the lower regions of Kashmir and plains of NW India from 24th ...and snow in the middle hills of Kashmir and higher reaches of H.P.

Srinagar will be cold and rainy on Saturday 24th and Sunday 25th, with day temp going down to around 12-14c. About 35 mms rain expected on these 2 days.
Punjab and adjoining Haryana can get medium showers.

As the induced Low forms in the WD trough, the location is around Punjab region. The NE movement of this Low may just about bring light rains on 26th/27th to the Delhi region.
Light to medium rains likely in North Pakistan this weekend. Islamabad will be cool with rains this weekend.

Mumbai: Very marginal drop to 36.4c on Thursday, and 23.6c as minimum. Should see a change for the better now as WD moves in.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Mumbai: Its been a unbearably hot week for Mumbai. But, from Dussera ( Thursday 22nd), City will see the day and night temperatures dropping by around 2c...good enough to start with !

This Western Region un-seasonable heat is sizzling covering a Large area:

The heated Western region will show signs of diminishing temperatures initially from 22nd October, and then substantially from 25th October.

Weather changing in a few days...Northern Region Winter Soon:
As explained on 17th (comments), from 24th,a WD (O-3) will engage itself in the Northern Sub Continent, and bring precipitation to Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana, ( Parts of) Delhi and North Rajasthan, Western U.P. and parts of Uttarakhand. 
Srinagar gets rains from 24th, and colder days. The day's high could go into single digit on Sunday 25th. 
Snow expected in the mid hills of Kashmir (Gulmarg, Pahalgam) and upper reaches of H.P.

Also, from 24th, Northern Pakistan, that is Pak Punjab will get good precipitation. Sharp drop in temperatures .

O-3 should last for 3 days...some possibility of rains coming South towards Central Sindh and Kutch (No commitment at this stage).

NEM wait continues..We see some hopes towards this Month End..a strong "push" likely to bring the current arond 28th/29th...spreading much rain in entire southern Peninsula (Bringing some clouds and showers to South Mah ?)

Monday, October 19, 2015

Mumbai : Heat and record Heat last 6 days  >>>
Scruz: October
20th:   37.1c -   24.2c
19th    37.5c -   25.3c             
18th :  37.4c -   25.7c             
17th:   37.5c  -  25.6c           
16th:   38.6c* - 22.4c         * Record All Time High for October      
15th :  37.2c - 25.4c          

Colaba: October  

20th    35.4c - 27.4c
19th    35.8c - 27.8c
18th    33.5c - 28.0c**     ** Record Night High for October
17th    36.1c - 27.6c
16th    34.8c - 26.5c
15th    34.8c - 27.4c.

Very weak Developments of Cumulus clouds (Towering) was seen in the NE and Eastern Sky of Mumbai on Monday afternoon...but to disappear soon....
Mumbai should get some relief from Thursday 22nd ..City may see a drop of around 2c in day and Night temperatures

The 2 comparison Graphs below  of same October periods of 2014 and 2015 ....shows heat and similar conditions prevailing last year also..

Mumbai Temps from 11th Oct-18th Oct 2014  ( first Graph below)

Temperatures of Mumbai from 11th Oct -17th Oct 2015 (Below)

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Mumbai starts the week with a Hot Monday ( 35c-37c) and warm Nights around 27c at Colaba and 25/26c at Scruz.....Partly cloudy skies may bring  light drizzles in some areas of Mumbai City.

Light rains also likely in other regions around Mumbai, including Roha and Pen.

Mumbai ( vagaries readings) equals highest minimum temperatures record for October ...
Vagaries recorded a Low of 28.4c on Sunday Morning. 
Colaba record for highest minimum also equalled ( Most Probably) on Sunday as Colaba records a low of 28.0c.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

El-Nino: North East Monsoon: Quantum:

“Whether El Niño gets slightly stronger or a little weaker is not statistically significant now. This baby is too big to fail,”...2015 El Nino !

It has been known for some time that an El Nino has very different effects on the south-west and north-east monsoons. This abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific waters has often been associated with failure of the south-west monsoon. But sometimes, the very same phenomenon appears to have just the opposite effect on the north-east monsoon, leading to more bountiful rain.

Research that was published recently by Pankaj Kumar and M.Rajeevan of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, K. Rupa Kumar, currently with the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva and A.K. Sahai, also of IITM, examined the relationship between the “El Nino/Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) and the North-East Monsoon between 1901 and 2000.

They found that the correlation between ENSO and the north-east monsoon had fluctuated during this period. The relationship was positive and strong from 1930 to 1950, and then became weak for the next two and a half decades. But since 1976, the relationship has picked up and become strong again. This, the scientists noted, was “diametrically opposite” to the relationship between ENSO and the south-west monsoon, which has weakened greatly in recent decades.

Moreover, North-East Monsoon rainfall during the El Nino years after 1976 had on average become considerably more copious than during the period from 1950 to 1976. The scientists pointed to evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation during an El Nino were now strengthening easterly wind flows, thus bringing more moisture to the subcontinent and increasing rainfall during the North-East Monsoon.

El Nino:

This year, however, an El Nino, is fully developing. An El Nino is generally weak for the south-west monsoon but could it strengthen the north-east monsoon? 

NASA Earth Observatory map 

The maps above show a comparison of sea surface heights in the Pacific Ocean as observed at the beginning of October in 1997 and 2015.  Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood higher (in tens of millimeters) than the normal sea level because warmer water expands to fill more volume. Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (contraction). Normal sea-level conditions appear in white.

The latest analyses from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from NASA confirm that El Niño is strengthening and it looks a lot like the strong event that occurred in 1997–98. Observations of sea surface heights and temperatures, as well as wind patterns, show surface waters cooling off in the Western Pacific and warming significantly in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

“Whether El Niño gets slightly stronger or a little weaker is not statistically significant now. This baby is too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA. October sea level height anomalies show that 2015 is as big or bigger in heat content than 1997.

In its October monthly update, scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center stated: “All multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter. The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño...Overall, there is an approximately 95 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015–16.”

NOAA Climate Prediction Center (2015, October 8) El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion. 
NASA Earth Observatory] 

As mentioned in our previous article, the NEM arrival is delayed this year. NEM may arrive as a weak current around the 27th of October. 

Though there is no direct connection with the El Nino, it is possible, however, that this year the north-east monsoon may be above normal.

For Tamil Nadu, Vagaries' estimates around 110%-115% rainfall of the Long Term Average (LTA). LTA as worked out by IMD for Tamil Nadu is 438 mms for Oct-Nov-Dec.

Chennai expectations are around +10% more than the average. Chennai receives around 850 mms (Average for both Stations) rains in these 3 months...

As yet, in October, Both Stations have measured 85 mms...

Posted Friday Night:
Heat in Gujarat and adjoining North Konkan.

Heat Wave and Heat Record for Mumbai Santa Cruz:
Friday 16th October 2015 turned out to the Hottest October day ever for Mumbai S'Cruz...Recording 38.6c (5.2c above normal).On Thursday, S'Cruz saw a high of 37.2c.
The previous hottest was on 23rd October 1972 when 37.9c was recorded.

Mumbai S'Cruz  Last 10 years hottest Days in October were :
Year     Temperature(oC)
2014 37.2(24)
2013 36.5(20)
2012 35.9(29)
2011 36.3(28)
2010 36.0(2)
2009 36.8(30,31)
2008 37.0(16)
2007 36.1(19)
2006 36.8(18)
2005 36.4(14)

Mumbai Colaba saw a high of 34.8c on Friday...far from its all time October high of 39.5c on 22nd October 1968.

Hottest in Asia was at Makkah (on Friday 16th): 41c
Hottest in India was at Bhuj which was 39.6c...Veraval followed at 39.1c. Surat was 38.6c.( Surat October record is 41.4c on 16th October 1987.) Ahmadabad was 38.4c.

Pakistan Heat:
Hottest Places on Friday 16th:  Mithi 40c, Sh. Benazirabad, Chhor, Lasbella, Padidan, Hyderabad 39c.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

                                               Designed by vagarian Salil

One Million ! That's some Achievement !...Its 1 million page views.. with the support of readers and followers of Vagaries !
I am overwhelmed by this achievement and by the warmth received from so many friends around the country and across the borders, who have interacted with vagaries over the past years. I am deeply honoured by your trust, and truly inspired by your confidence. This is a cherished moment for me and a memorable moment for Vagarians.

Special thanks to the friends from IMD (and all Regional Centres), IITM, AccuWeather and CustomWeather for their constant support to Vagaries. 
Vagaries has now several co authors to cover regional weather details.
With contributions from Vagarians Abhijit, Arpit, Atul, GSB, Pradeep, Rohit and Waqas, as co-authors, Vagaries has reached out to various sections and readers with regional reports. They have helped Vagaries mantain its standard and place in the international arena of Weather blogs.

Constant interaction with friends and readers, has helped me in bringing Vagaries up to international status and has spread the viewer ship globally.
I also thank all the readers for their comments, support, inputs and suggestions.

Vagaries is able to scale this heights due to its integrity and straight forward views. Readers now trust and have full faith in whatever is printed.

My theory has always been to put in facts and explanations of my estimates and forecasts. Each prediction has been as far as possible supported by charts and reasoning as to why it could be so. Its always prudent for a meteorologist to give reasoning and explain his views. Not just prophesies.
Things may eventually fall in place or go either way. Like I said, I am a meteorologist, not a magician.

Vagaries also feeds it readers with as much information as possible and with extreme records and events. 

Active WD brings Snowfall In Kashmir and Rains in H.P....See Current Weather Page

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Vagaries' Note: a brief Summary of the North East Monsoon.

As the south-west monsoon draws to a close, the direction of the surface winds change and the stage is set for the north-east monsoon. Much of the country is heavily dependent on the south-west monsoon for most of its annual rainfall. However, many parts of southern India also receive considerable rain from the north-east monsoon. 
Tamil Nadu, in particular, typically gets nearly half its annual rain during this monsoon. In fact, as much as 60 per cent of the rain that the State’s coastal regions receive in a year is from this monsoon.

Salient Features:
-The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.
For the NEM, it is not so.
In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the widhrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.
-The main has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

-The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.
-The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM. Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.
-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.
- The Sub Tropical Ridge (STR) in the stream determines the track of cyclones during the NEM months.The STR osscillates East-West, and shifts along the North Bay.

-The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.
-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.
-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure systems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The advent of the NEM is getting  delayed this year.
Vagaries predicts its advance by the 24th. taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM. The SWM lingers on, and even today, on the 14th, is still prevailing over parts of Karnataka and T.N.

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are prevailing west of Java and Sumatra.

But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are seasonal and weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late.

Look out for Saturday 17th October Posting: El Nino Position and Quantum of NEM.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Posted Tuesday Night:

Mumbai: After slight chances of very light drizzles in some areas on Wednesday, Monsoon season to be over from Thursday 15th October. Winds change from Thursday to NW direction, and drop in humidity. 
Pune: Pune remains dry now onwards as the Monsoon season gets over from Thursday. Drop in night temperatures to 17/18c expected from Friday morning.

1.South West Monsoon has Withdrawn from Marathwada, N.I. Karnataka, Telengana and Chattisgarh. Further withdrawal from Bengal, Madhya Maharahtra, Konkan and Goa  on Friday 16th October.
Coastal regions of Kerala, Odisha and A.P. get some rains till this weekend.
Axis moves southwards does not have distinct wind contrasts.

SW monsoon rains continue in Kerala till Sunday. 
Chennai: Though winds become Easterly, we do not see a systematic easterly trough developing till Sunday to herald the NEM. Chennai will not be getting any meaningful rains this week. ( Vagaries will put up the introductory article on NEM on Wednesday 14th October.) 
As of now, according to Long Term Forecast of Vagaries, NEM seems to enter TN earliest not before 24th October.

Kolkata will see some light rains till Friday.Monsoon withdraws this weekend.

Delhi NCR remains dry and warm. Thursday may be partly cloudy with chances of light rains in some parts.

AS-2, A Low Pressure now, moves towards Oman coast. 
By Thursday, S/SW winds enter the Sindh coast along with clouding. More moisture is attracted towards Central Sindh and parts of Pak Punjab from the Arabian Sea due to the WD passing over North Pakistan.
Rains likely in Pak Punjab, Central and upper Sindh and parts of coastal Sindh on Thursday 15th and Friday 16th. 

Clouds and rain likely in Oman and Muscat on Friday and Saturday.

Monday, October 12, 2015

South West Monsoon Toppers (All India) for the 2015 Season....Compiled By Pradeep.

Min 4000 mm

1.Mawsynaram, Meghalaya - 11492* ( To be re-confirmed)
2.Cherrapunji RKM, Meghalaya - N.A.
3.Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - 10085
4.Hulikal, Karnataka - 5350
5.Mastikatte, Karnataka - 5102
6.Agumbe, Karnataka - 4943
7.Shiragaon, Maharashtra - 4921
8.Lamaj, Maharashtra - 4721
9.Yadur, Karnataka - 4704
10.Mani, Karnataka - 4458
11.Cogar, Karnataka - 4500
12.Talacauvery, Karnataka - 4451
13.Mulshi, Maharahstra - 4391
14.Nilkund, Karnataka - 4200
15.Kuttiyadi, Kerala ~ 4100
16.Walvan, Maharashtra - 4050
17.Patherpunj, Maharashtra - 4000
18.Kollur, Karnataka ~ 4000
19.Kerekatte, Karnataka - 4000 (till 31.08.2015)

Comparison with 2014 Toppers:

  1. Mawsynaram, Meghalaya -
  2. Cherrapunj, Meghalaya - 10235
  3. Talacauvery, Karnataka - 7912
  4. Hulikal, Karnataka - 7770
  5. Agumbe, Karnataka - 7640
  6. Surlabhi, Karnataka - 7180
  7. Yadur, Karnataka - 7149
  8. Mastikatte, Karnataka - 7141
  9. Nilkund, Karnataka - 7049
  10. Amboli, Maharashtra ~ 6912
  11. Mani Dam, Karnataka - 6634
  12. Mulshi, Maharashtra - 6402
  13. Kollur, Karnataka - 6324
  14. Kogar, Karnataka - 6090
  15. Amgaon, Karnataka - 6036
  16. Hosakere, Karnataka - 5928
  17. Kitwade, Maharashtra - 5900
  18. Naladi, Karnataka - 5851
  19. Kanakumbi, Karnataka - 5834
  20. Hongadahalla, Karnataka - 5832
  21. Castle Rock, Karnataka - 5802
  22. Gavali, Karnataka - 5709
  23. Kundal, Karnataka - 5700
  24. Mahabaleshwar, Maharashtra ~ 5700 
  25. Dabbaedka, Karnataka - 5519
  26. Kerveshe, Karnataka ~ 5500
  27. Aralagod, Karnataka ~ 5500

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Posted Sunday Night 11 pm IST:

Several parts of Mumbai received showers on Sunday evening. Mumbai can expect some showers on Monday. Decreasing from Tuesday.

AS-2, having moved N/NW since last reporting. Located 500 kms W/NW off Goa at 16N and 69.2E. Core pressure constant at estimated 1002/1004 mb. Fewer concentric isobars downgrades it to a Depression. 

As explained yesterday, dry air almost "choking" the system.Losing strength, will be down graded again to a  Well marked Low by Monday.

Rain/Thunder showers in Konkan and Madhya Mah.( Pune, Nasik) and South Gujarat Coast (Valsad and Surat) and parts of Saurashtra on Monday 12th. 
Decreasing on Tuesday 13th.

AS-2 moves W/NW, and as it weakens, its cloud cover starts expanding. 
Clouds would reach Oman by Wednesday 14th, and Muscat can expect some rain on Thursday.

At the same time, there could be a 'flow" of clouds "stretching" towards the NE from the weak system, towards Sindh and Central Pakistan.

These regions can expect rains on Thursday 15th. Possibility of rains on Friday 16th in Northern Pakistan and India ( Punjab and Delhi)also. More on this later.


Position as on 5 pm IST Sunday....

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Posted Saturday Night 11 pm IST:

Satellite imagery imposed with shear shows the actual rain region and intensity.

(Some International Agencies are terming it as a "Tropical Depression", some as a "Tropical Storm" and some as a "Cyclone".)
Core winds estimated at 27-32 knts.

Dry air is now encircling the system from the North, West and South-West...and encroaching in the South also. Almost "choking" AS-2. 
But, as the system is stationary, it is not moving into the dry air, and remaining in the saturated region. 
Once it moves, I dont see it strengthening further.

Even now, expecting some rains in Mumbai Saturday Night/Sunday...
Pune got some showers on Saturday. 10 mms were measured in the city.Ghat regions of Khandala and Lonavalla too received rains.

On Saturday, Interior Konkan regions had some light rains also, including Eastern Outer townships of Mumbai.
Next Details at 11.30 pm IST Saturday

AS-2 now a Deep depression, but having moved very little to the West. Located 15N and 69.1E...996 mb.

Posted Saturday Noon IST:

AS-2, as a Depression with winds at around estimated 30 knts, with concentric 2 mb difference isobars. Core winds are estimated to be around 28-30 knts and pressure 996 mb.

Will soon strengthen to a Deep Depression

Currently 460 kms WSW off Goa and 550 kms S/SW off Mumbai( 15N & 69.6E )Actual rainfall region and convective area small.

Tracking NW to WNW now and encountering surrounding dry air.As the system tracks WNW, it will encounter the dry air around Monday (the dry air to its West). Will Weaken gradually after 48 hrs ( Monday).

A system (Low) may traverse towards Oman, and Muscat may see rain on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Friday, October 09, 2015

Mumbai Saturday rains will occur as mentioned.
next update Saturday 12 Noon.
The Below Chart of States' Highest Rains from Rohit..

Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Posted Thursday Night:
Cloudy and light rain in Mumbai on Saturday. Sunday will be hazy.

1. AS-2 is now located as a Well Marked Low ( 1004/1005 mb) West off the Karnataka Coast.

Will track North initially and then WNW. AS-2 will strengthen to 1000 mb, and as it tracks WNW, it will encounter dry air.  

Repeat Forecast: Heavy rains on Friday and Saturday along Karnataka coast. Moderate rains in South Konkan.
Interior regions of North Konkan may get some (Light) showers on Saturday.

Light showers in parts of Pune on Saturday and Sunday.

2. Well Marked Low (1004 mb) in the Bay now lies over the Delta South Coast of Bangladesh, West of Chittagong. Heavy rain areas now concentrated along SE Coast of Bangladesh.

Expected to track Eastwards into Tripura, Manipur, where heavy rains will occur.

Posted Thursday Afternoon (8th October):

1. The Low in the Arabian Sea (AS-2) mentioned in previous posts, has remained off the Karnataka/North Kerala coast. System is likely to strengthen by Thursday evening to the next stage i.e. a Well Marked Low. Currently at 1002 mb.

AS-2 will track a bit North till 15N, and then veer towards the W/NW direction, moving away from the Indian Coast. It will strengthen more to the next stage in the sea.

2. The Bay Low remains a Low at 1006 mb, and is likely to cross the Bangladesh coast by Friday morning.Currently just off the Bengal Coast.

Rains decreasing in Kolkata from Sunday.

Mumbai: Hot day on Thursday and Friday, with hazy skies.Saturday will be partly cloudy, with light rains in some parts of city.
Sunday will be clear and dry.

Chennai: Some thunder showers in Chennai till Saturday, or maybe a hit and miss chance on Sunday. Rainfall decreasing from Monday.Winds turn Easterly.
Bangalore gets the usual thunder showers this weekend also.

Thursday 8th and Friday 9th: Heavy rains likely in Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and S.I. Karnataka. Heavy rains in Odisha and Gangetic W.Bengal on Thursday.

Saturday 10th :
Heavy rains in Coastal Karnatak and moderate rains in Goa and South Konkan.
rainfall decreases in Odisha and Bengal.

Sunday 11th: Rainfall decreases along West Coast. Parts of S.I. Karnataka get Thunder showers.

South West Monsoon Withdraws from Vidharbh and Chattisgarh.

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes Position as on 6th on Mumbai Page

Posted Tuesday 6th Afternoon:
Mumbai: Getting warmer from Tuesday, and the day temperature can touch 36c on Wednesday.
Tuesday may just get thundery developments in the Eastern sky (weak), but chances of rains diminishing from Thursday.
Pune may get a Shower in some parts till Wednesday. 

The UAC in the South East Arabian Sea will descend as a Low by Tuesday night. Initially around 1006/1008 mb.
This will deepen by Wednesday 7th and Thursday 8th, and after tracking along the West coast of India till about 15N, may move towards NW.
Heavy Rainfall in Kerala, Coastal Karnatak and some regions of Goa on Tuesday 6th /Wednesday7th /Thursday8th.
Thunder showers a plenty for Bangalore all through this week.

The SWM has withdrawn in all regions North from Gujarat, M.P. North Chattisgarh and Bihar.

Alongwith this Arabian Sea Low, the Monsoon axis, both ends, will slip South of Maharastra. As the axis moves Southwards, the SWM starts retreating, and The NEM conditions start strengthening. See 200 stream chart.(Shall put up a note soon on NEM).

Chennai too will be seeing almost daily thunder showers this week.

The UAC over North Bay off Odisha coast has formed, but, due to un favourable land winds, may not intensify. System as an UAC will track North into Bangladesh by Thursday or Friday.
Kolkata may get the last thunder showers on Wednesday and Thursday.Monsoon could be withdrawn after the system dissolves.

New Delhi remains hot this week, around 36/37c. But we may see the nights getting cooler to around 20c by the weekend.

Monday, October 05, 2015

See Latest Storms and other Storms by Vagarian Salil on vagaries You Tube

Moderate Thunder Showers in Mumbai on Sunday night...and in some parts of Madhya Mah.

Mahableshwar 57 mms, Ahmadnagar 27 mms, Satara 14 mms, Kolhapur 11 mms, Mumbai (Vagaries) 8 mms, Colaba 4 mms, Mumbai Scruz 0.2 mms.

More Rain figures from Pradeep:
Rain continues for 3rd day in Maharashtra, ending 8.30 am on 05.10.2015 
Andhra - 115 
Sawargaon - 92 ,Belwandi - 85 ,Deshing - 84 
Dhom Balkawadi - 81 ,Wada - 79 ,Suratgaon - 77 ,Wadgaon Maval - 76 
Wadgaon - 76 ,,Amboli - 70 ,Lanja - 67 
Dahiwadi - 66 ,Hotagi - 65 ,Korti - 65 ,Panhala - 65 ,Adarki - 64 ,Nazara - 63 
Pangari - 62 ,Radhanagari - 62 ,Bhama Askhed - 61 ,Kodoli - 61 
Khadkala - 60 ,Wathar Station - 60 
Khatav - 60 ,Malwadi - 60 ,Wai - 60 ,Vita - 60 ,Andhali- 60 ,Khand - 60

AN UAC is prevailing in Bay off the Odisha coast, in fact, a bit to the Central Region of the Bay.
Another UAC has formed off the Karnataka. This is a result of the Easterly wave pushing a pulse westwards( which was explained few days back).The easterly wave still prevails to dominate the UAC.

This ( UAC) is to be observed, as it can descend to a Low. Tracking the Low, (when it forms) will be done. Now it seems it will track West..but will observe...will update tonite.
In lieu of this Karnatak coast will get heavy rains, with heavy falls in Goa.

The Monsoon axis runs from Southern Sindh (West end) towards the 20N line over Maharashtra. From Maharashtra, the axis runs due East along the 20N line and its Eastern end is over Myanmaar (again along the 20N line.)

Sunday, October 04, 2015

Mumbai had violent Thunder showers, on Saturday night 3rd October...some rain amounts around Mumbai...
by Vagarian Tejas)

Lakes supplying water to Mumbai also had good rains...Upper Vaitarna received 70 mms, Bhatsa 65 mms, Middle Vaitarna 45 mms, Tansa 37 mms, Tulshi 27 mms, Vihar 27 mms..
Mumbai Lake levels are now 80% full. Storage at 1152 Mcum.
At the rate of supply today, with 20% cut effective, we have 360 days water stock...or till about 30th September 2016.  
If full supply is resumed, we have about supply of about 300 days, or till end July 2016.
(Info from Vagarian Jayesh Mehta)

Barvi Dam supplying Thane and Eastern Townships, received 27 mms, and is 88% full .

Friday, October 02, 2015

Saturday Evening: Thunder Storms lashed many parts of Mumbai City and surrounding Townships...Some rain amounts till 8.30 pm IST Saturday:
Mumbai Central 81 mms (AWS), Sea Link 71 mms (AWS),
Dadar 69 mms (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Salil), Vagaries 55 mms, Deonar 62 mms. Borivali 17.5 mms (Pvt guage of Vagarian Tejas), 

Thane 44 mms (AWS), Panvel (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Junaid) 26 mms, Badlapur (Pvt gauge of Vagarian Abhijit) 71 mms.

Posted Friday Night:
Maharashtra :
Weekend (Saturday /Sunday 3rd/4th October) Estimate for:

Mumbai: Saturday and Sunday will see Thunder showers in many parts of the city and surrounding areas.
Rains reducing from Monday. Monsoon probably withdraws from Mumbai and Pune by around Thursday 8th October.
Pune: Thunder showers in the Late afternoon/evening,heavy in some parts of Pune. Rainfall around 20-25 mms per day.

Aurangabad and Akola Region will get a thunder shower in many areas on Saturday. Thunder shower restricted to a few places on Sunday. Rains reduce and decrease from Monday 5th October. Next week, day temperatures rise and hot days will be experienced.
Soil moisture reduces from Monday as drier winds take over with high temperatures (around 37c).

Heavy showers this weekend in Madhya Maharashtra.

Monsoon may withdraw from complete Maharashtra by 10th October.

Actual Monsoon Performance was 86% ( -14%).

Vagaries estimate on 2nd June (see here post of 2nd June) was 91% +_ 2%...amounting to 89%.
Slightly overestimated (By 3%).

  21st  July afternoon post Comparative rain till 21st morning: Panji 2525 mms ( 100 ") and Ratnagiri 2572 mms ( 102") cross 100&q...