Saturday, December 31, 2016

Wishing all Vagarians and Readers a very Happy and Successful 2017...

Let us not wriggle out of 2016 without mentioning some of the uncommon, nonseasonal and rare weather events in the world. Have tried to cover up the most, but must have missed out, lets start with January....

The heavy snowfall that hit northern and central Turkey in the last days of 2015 has continued into the New Year,
Temperatures fell below 0C for the first time this season in New York City on Monday morning, the latest date on record for such an occurrence. The city's previous record for the latest date for temperatures to drop below freezing was 22 December 1998.
Tropical Storm Pali formed 1,500 miles southwest of Hawaii, making it the earliest on record that a tropical storm has formed in the central Pacific basin. The storm system is the first tropical cyclone to form in the Central Pacific this year and is also the earliest storm on record, beating Tropical Storm Wiona, which formed on Jan. 13, 1989.
Snow, sleet and icy winds across east Asia have caused deaths, flight cancellations and chaos as the region struggles with record-low temperatures due to an Arctic cold snap that brought snow to several tropical areas for the first time in many people's lifetimes. In Taiwan, the capital Taipei recorded a low of 4C, the coldest in 44 years. Local media said 90 people had died due to the cold weather, mainly from hypothermia and cardiac arrest. Five more died in Japan. Hundreds of flights were cancelled across the region, tens of thousands of holidaymakers were stranded in South Korea, and freezing conditions in sub-tropical Hong Kong caused mayhem on its tallest peak. In northern Vietnam, snow blanketed mountain areas as the wave of cold air arrived on Sunday to Lào Cai province. In the capital, Hanoi, it dropped to a milder 6C, although authorities said that was the coldest the city has been for two decades. The southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, which is by the tropic of Cancer, saw sleet for the first time in 60 years, the local meteorological station said.  In Hong Kong, on Monday after temperatures fell to 3C, a 60-year low. In Bangkok, labelled the planet's hottest city by the World Meteorological Organisation for its mean air temperature of 28C, the mercury dropped to 16C on Monday. Scarves and padded jackets, normally bought only as winter holiday items by residents of Bangkok, appeared in the city as locals dealt with the unusually cool weather. In China, 24 weather stations recorded all-time low temperatures. Further north, in Inner Mongolia, the temperature dropped to a record low of -46.8C (-52F) and in China's eastern city of Qingdao, fishing boats were stuck fast in the frozen waters.

Storm Henry has lashed Scotland with winds of over 100 mph, forcing the closure of roads, rail services and leaving 2,000 homes without power. Gusts reached 148mph on the summit of Cairngorm and a speed of 100mph was recorded at the Tay Road bridge, Dundee. Winds of 90mph were recorded in South Uist on Monday night, with gusts of 60mph in Glasgow and 63mph in Loftus, North Yorkshire.
A storm brought severe weather to parts of the Middle East Sunday night into Monday as heavy rain and thunderstorms produced flooding, strong winds, and hail. Rainfall averaged 25-50 mm across Israel, Jordan and Lebanon with local amounts up to 100 mm.
Seattle set its wettest winter precipitation record by receiving 24.65 inches of rain. This broke the previous record of 22.77 inches set in the winter of 1998-1999. Records in Seattle date back to 1894

Heavy snow and icy, freezing conditions wreaked havoc across the north of the UK on Thursday night and Friday morning as the storm swept in from the Atlantic. Snowfalls of up to 10 cm on higher ground forced schools to shut in parts of Yorkshire and Lancashire on Friday,
Melbourne sweltered through its hottest March night on record on Tuesday, hovering around 30C after reaching a peak of 38.6C in the city at 5pm. The temperature dropped to an overnight minimum of 27.7C at 8.45am Wednesday, just before the 6am cut-off for overnight temperatures. It broke a previous record for the warmest overnight minimum of 26.5C, which was set on 13 March 2013. However the daytime maximum of 38.9C fell short of the March record of 41.5C, set in 1940. Sydney has also been unseasonably warm, with a record-breaking 31 days in a row above 26C. Canberra has had a daily maximum temperature of more than 30C for every day of March so far. Alain Baillie, forecaster with the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, said the uncomfortable night was the result of a low-intensity heatwave, which has hovered over south-eastern Australia for the past week. Mildura has not had a daily maximum temperature below 36.7C since March began.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms also lashed Oman on Wednesday causing flooding and closing schools. The Royal Oman Police have reported at least 40 distress calls from flooding along with numerous flooded roadways. 
March: 11th-15th
Islamabad received around 135 mm of rain from Friday to Tuesday. Normal rainfall for the entire month of March is less than 75 mm. Murree, a mountainous area just north of Islamabad, has recorded about 200 mm. Banhial, in the Indian state of Kashmir and Jammu, reported around 300 mm of rain through to Tuesday.

Parts of Sydney (Australia) have experienced the hottest April day on record, with the weather bureau saying the temperature reached 34.2C at Observatory Hill about 1:30pm. The previous April record of 33.9C was set in 1986. It was a hot day in the west, with Richmond hitting 36.6C, but that was shy of the April record there of 38.2C in 1986. Meanwhile at Bourke in the state's central-west, the mercury hit 38.6C, recording the hottest April day anywhere in New South Wales for 30 years.
Tropical cyclone Fantala's estimated maximum sustained winds reached 150 knots making it the most powerful South Indian Ocean tropical Cyclone of 2016. This increase in intensity made Fantala a category five tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane wind scale. Fantala became this powerful while moving over the open waters of the South Indian Ocean to a position north of Madagascar. On April 18, satellite radar found rain falling at over 186 mm per hour in an intense feeder band on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone.
In recent weeks all-time national heat records have been observed in Cambodia, Laos, and (almost) in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Meanwhile extreme heat has resulted in all- time record high temperatures in the Maldives, India, China, and portions of Africa as well. Here are some details:
Cambodia: National all-time record high of 42.6C set at Preah Vihea on April 15th. This surpassed the record set just two days previously at Bantey Ampil (42.2C on April 13th). Prior to this year, the maximum measured temperature in Cambodia was 41.4C at Stoeng Treng in 1960.
Laos: National all-time record high of 42.3C set at Seno on April 13th. This surpassed the former record of 42.0C recorded at Savannakhet in March 1933. An all-time national record high minimum temperature was measured at Takhek on April 13th of 30.5C.
Malaysia: Near national record of 39.2C measured at Batu Embun on April 10th (the hottest temperature ever measured in central Malaysia). The all-time Malaysian record is 40.1C at Chuping on April 9, 1998. In March this year Chuping reached 39.5C.
Singapore: Near national record set in Singapore with a 36.6C at Pulau on April 13th. National record is 37.0C at Tengah on April 17, 1983.
All-time national temperature records have also been set for the Maldives Islands, India, China and in Africa. China's southernmost province of Hainan (Island) saw several sites breaking all-time heat records with the warmest being Danxian with a 40.5C reading on April 16th. In India on April 24th the city of Titlagarh measured 48.5C. This is the highest reliably measured temperature in India for the month of April. In addition, Bangalore recorded its all-time highest temperature on record with a 39.2C reading beating out its previous record of 38.9C observed on May 22, 1931. In the Maldives a national record high of 34.9C was observed at Hanimadhoo on April 16th edging out the previous record of 34.8C set at Kadhdhoo on March 27, 1999. In Africa Burkina Faso set its all- time national record high with 47.5C on April 13th; the previous record was 47.2C at the same site on May 13, 1984.
Thailand is currently experiencing its longest heatwave in at least 65 years and authorities have advised people to stay indoors. The average temperature has risen above 40C in many regions in April, with the mercury spiking one day to a near record breaking 44.3C. The hottest day ever recorded in Thailand was 44.4C on April 27, 1960, in the northern province of Uttaradit. According to the Thai Meteorological Department, the average temperature nationwide has surpassed alert levels and the heatwave is expected to continue,

64 people have reportedly been killed by lightning over the past two days during tropical storms across Bangladesh. The reports said most of the deaths have occurred in rural Bangladesh
It has been unusually warm across much of eastern Australia so far this May. The high for Sydney was 28C on Tuesday when the average temperature for May is 19.5C. All the way from Brisbane down to even Hobart is warmer than average for this part of year, acording to the Bureau of Meteorology In Brisbane the average high temperature for May is 23.2C - and so far this month not a day has failed to reach 24C. Canberra has also been warmer than the average May, with an average high of 18.9C so far this month compared with the usual 15.6C. And the effect has been felt as far south as Melbourne, where this month it has been 20.3C while the average May day peaks at 16. 7C. 
May: 19th:Historical High for India ! Phalodi, Rajasthan, India, records India's highest ever temperature when it recorded 51.0c on 19th May 2016.

Very hot weather across the Southwest USA challenged all-time record highs and provided ideal conditions for burgeoning wildfires this week. Highs soared well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in many cities during the first half of the week. Phoenix recorded its fifth highest all-time temperature on Sunday, hitting 118F; Las Vegas (115F) and Death Valley (126F) each set new daily record highs on Monday. Blythe, California, about 200 miles east of Los Angeles, set all-time record highs on consecutive days after hitting 124F on Monday and 126F on Tuesday. At least five hikers died while hiking in Arizona as temperatures approached record high levels.
Thunderstorms brought heavy rain to Karachi and surroundings parts of Pakistan on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall on Tuesday totalled 1.71 inches, the highest single-day total since September 2011. Additional rain falling on Wednesday brought an additional 0.79 of an inch to the city for a total of 2.50 inches in a 24-hour time period. This is more rain than was reported during the entire 2015 calendar year and almost as much as was reported in 2014-2015 combined. 
277 mm of rain fell at the Limburg (Netherlands) weather station at Ysselstein, a new national record for the month of June. In the southeast of the country many places recorded over 200 mm of rain.

A record was set in the tropical northwestern Pacific Ocean as the basin entered its longest stretch of time without a named tropical cyclone. The new record of 199 days ended on Sunday with the development of Tropical Storm Nepartak. The lack of tropical systems occurred from 17 December 2015 to 2 July 2016. The previous record was 198 days which occurred from 15 December 1972, to 30 June 1973, and also from 22 December 1997, to 7 July 1998.
Across parts of Iraq, western Iran, Kuwait and northern Saudi Arabia, extremely high temperatures have been recorded over recent days. On Thursday Basrah Airport, Iraq reached 53.4C, while Mitribah in northern Kuwait recorded 54.0C. Both of these temperatures, subject to confirmation, are new national records and the 54.0C recorded at Mitribah is among the highest temperatures ever recorded in Asia.
Stifling heat has been baking the central United States, but will finally ease across northern areas this weekend. Some figures include:
109F in Pierre, South Dakota on the 20th was the highest since 29 August 2012.
Dallas first reached 100F on the 22nd, 21 days later than normal.
105F at Little Rock, Arkansas, on the 22nd tied the day's record high with 1943.

August: 9th
A rare 'landspout tornado' was photographed on the southwest side of Chicago. The tornado was the first to occur inside Chicago's city limits since 22 September 2006, according to the National Weather Service in Chicago. The National Severe Storms Laboratory defines landspouts as "narrow, rope-like condensation funnels that form while the thunderstorm cloud is still growing and there is no rotating updraft." The NWS said there was no rain shower or thunderstorm, just cumulous clouds along the lake breeze. Landspouts are typically observed under cumulonimbus clouds or towering cumulous clouds and are the land-based equivalent of waterspouts.
France has been hit by a heatwave that will last until Friday at least, weather forecasters said as temperatures soared into the high 30s C and authorities warned the elderly to stay indoors during the middle of the day. The highest temperatures at 4.00pm on Tuesday were recorded in the west - Rennes (34C), Nantes, Cognac, Bordeaux (35C) and Mont-de-Marsan (36C).

Samoa has been hit by a hail storm so rare that it was believed to be a hoax by many of the island's inhabitants. The tropical nation of Samoa lies in the Pacific Ocean, where the average temperature at this time of year is 29C. But on Friday evening an unexpected hail storm struck the eastern side of the island of Savai'i, accompanied by heavy rain and strong wind gusts. It was only the second time since records began that hail has fallen on Samoa, the first was in 2011. The storm lasted 10 to 15 minutes and produced hail stones roughly 2cm wide. 'Because it was so unexpected a lot of people thought it had been invented. We had to release satellite images of the conditions that led to to the hail for people to believe it was real.'

In the Atlantic, the post-tropical cyclone Nicole (formerly Hurricane Nicole), has been declared the longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone, since 1906, to have formed after the first day of October. Wind speeds of up to 75mph were still prominent in the north Atlantic on Monday morning, but lost strength the following day out to the west of Maine. Nicole regained hurricane status twice, since initially starting up on 4 October and lasting a total of 14 days. Coastal regions of Britain are now on flood alert following Atlantic sea-surge warnings.
October : 20th
One of the most powerful typhoons to ever hit the Philippines destroyed houses, tore roofs off schools and ripped giant trees out of the ground. Super typhoon Haima hit the northern province of Cagayan late on Wednesday night with winds almost on a par with catastrophic Haiyan, which was then the strongest storm to strike the disaster-prone south-east Asian archipelago and claimed more than 7,350 lives in 2013. Haima hit coastal towns facing the Pacific ocean with sustained winds of 225 km/h, and wind gusts of up to 315 km/h

Snow fell in Tokyo and other parts of eastern Japan on Thursday, with the capital recording its first November snowfall since 1875 when the government started collecting records.

Parts of the Big Island of Hawaii were hit by a major storm that left the area with several feet of snow. The worst of the winter storm struck Mauna Kea, which rises to a height of 13,803 feet. Despite the tropical latitude of Hawaii, snow is not unusual on Mauna Kea.
12th-14th: Direct hit by Severe Cyclone "Vardah" on Chennai...winds upto 130 kmph brought considerable destruction in the city.
December data yet incomplete.
Data from Roger Brugge's Page

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Posted 29th December:

1. Day temperatures are unseasonably warmer in Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, Haryana and H.P. See departure map below. This is due to the absence of active WDs and corresponding cool NW winds associated with it.In fact, next 2/3 nights, the minimum will also show a rise of 2/3c. This is before

2. the next WD, that is J-1 arrives over the Kashmir region and H.P.around 3rd Jan. The winds in Delhi then change to N/NW. 

3. Another, stronger WD follows. J-2 will arrive over North Pakistan on 5th Jan and over North India by 6th Jan. Northern region will surely feel the cold on arrival of J-2.J-2 will cover regions in Central Pakistan and cross into Indian Punjab . Sharp drop and cold wave expected in Rajasthan, Gujarat and M.P. besides North and Central India.

Mumbai : Days will remain warmer than normal around 33/34c till 2nd Jan. Nights will be around 17c.Real effective drop in temperatures expected after J-2.Cold wave expected after J-2 in Nasik, Pune, Aurangabad and North Konkan.

Wednesday, December 28, 2016


As the calendar year comes to an end , the subcontinent winter shows it's myriad shades ..
From the freeze of the Himalayas (Leh : 6 c / -13 c) to the tropical weather of the Indian ocean islands ( Port Blair: 31 c / 26 c ) /south India ( Chennai : 31 c / 23 c ) ..
In between ,the fog of North India (Patna : 23 c /11 c) and  the crisp , sunny, fine weather of the Deccan plateau (Pune : 29 c / 9 c) ..
The day temperatures are above normal at most parts of North India ( @ Churu max temp above normal by 7 c)   ..except parts of Uttar Pradesh (@ Lucknow max temp  4 c below normal )

The day temperatures are above normal at the west coast ( @Kannur,Kerala recording it's hottest december day)

The minimum temperatures are below normal in parts of Maharashtra ( @ Aurangabad min temp 3 c below normal) ..

(Click and enlarge the map below for better view)


Friday, December 16, 2016

Posted Friday Night:

A low pressure formed from the "Vardah" pulse will deepen to a Well Marked Low. Likely to move West.
Weekend: No major systems expected.
Northern and NW India will remain dry and foggy in the morning. A WD would affect Kashmir and H.P. on Monday. 
Delhi NCR will see patchy fog in the pre noon hours, with the nights remaining around 8c.

Night temperatures dropping by 3/4c in Western Maharshtra. Pune likely to drop to 10/12c alongwith Nasik.
Mumbai:Night temperatures in Mumbai likely to fall by 2/3c this weekend.Day at Colaba was hot on Friday at 35.8c. Likely to be around 34/35c this weekend also.

Bangalore: Weekend will be foggy in the morning and partly cloudy later. Nights will drop to 15/16c.
Kolkata:Night temperatures around 13/14c.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

A first hand Experience of "Vardah" from Vagarian Pradeep John.

Historic winds speeds in entire Chennai and massive deluge rains in South Chennai - A fearful memory of Cyclone Vardah to remain for lifetime
Atlast power is back in Anna Ngar West. Sorry to all, i could not continue to post yesterday after the Cyclone landfall as my battery drained out and then the network was down. 2nd time in my life i had witnessed Cyclone's fury and maybe as i grow old i will forget the 1st one in 1994, but this one i will not. I dont know exactly how much damage this has caused in terms of loss of life or assets. It was really scary even to me who has dreamt of seeing a landfall like this for 20 years. I know lot of lives are affected (direct or indirectly), its not my wish to see joy in others sufferings. I am a pluviophile, its in my heart and mind waiting to witness a event like this. Coming to rains, the worst are over. Dont believe in Rumours that next cyclone is coming. Next one will probably be Low Pressure Area (max) or in the worst case a Depression. We need more rains. Vardah has brought much needed inflow into the Chennai lakes but we need more. For Official wind speeds of Cyclone Vardah we have to wait for some more time. IMD Chennai HWSR recorded 110 km/hr while the pressure drop was huge at 975 mb. Based on pressure, it seems cyclone has made landfall as Very Severe Cyclonic storm itself. The rainfall particularly, the southern Chennai people would not the rains accompanied with winds in life time. In few hours Shollingallur - Guduvanchery - Kancheepuram belt recorded over 300 mm rainfall, this is one scary rainfall happened in South Chennai and add to that the winds, South Chennai will not forget the intensity of rains from the Eyewall bands of Cyclone Vardah so soon. See the precipitation accumulation. Widespread rains and very intense in south Chennai belt. Vellore too got good rains along with Tiruvannmalai boundary areas while Krishnagiri district got some heavy spell too.

Rain amounts from Vardah in mm (min 100 mm)

Sathyabama University (Shollinganallur) - 382
Katupakkam (Near SRM University) - 341
Vembakkam (near Kancheepuram) - 333,Kancheepuram - 280
Korattur Anaicut - 220,Chembarabakkam Lake - 210
Kalavai - 231,Chennai Airport - 203
Sriperumbudur - 170,Taramani - 165
Yercaud - 154 ,Alangayam - 150 
Tambaram - 140 ,Chennai City - 119
Thiruvalangadu - 118 ,Anjatti - 115 
Cholavaram - 110 ,Vellore - 108
Tiruvallur - 107 ,Red hills Lake - 106 
Cheyyar - 106,Ambur - 103 ,Avadi - 103
Chengalpattu - 102 ,Kandhili - 102
Poonamalle - 101 ,Kaveripakkam - 100 
Tiruttani - 100 ,Arani - 100 ,DGP Office - 100.

Rainfall from VSCS Vardah compiled by Vagarian Praneeth :

Thanks to both.

Estimate for 14th and 15th December:
Light rain is likely to occur in Goa and parts of South Konkan on Wednesday and Thursday. Light thunder showers likely in Coastal Karnataka also,

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Posted Monday 12th Night:

"Vardah" crosses coast near Chennai on Monday Afternoon as a Severe Cyclonic storm wit winds at 100-110 kmph and very heavy rains in Chennai.
System will move West and wweaken into a Deep Depression by Tuesday morning, approaching Bangalore.
Heavy showers expected in Bangalore on Monday night and Tuesday. Day's high will be around 20c with about 40 mms on Tuesday.

Rains decreasing sharply in Chennai from Monday night.Meenambukam saw a high of 25.1c and measured 179 mms till 8.30 pm. Nungambakkam saw a high of 23.1c and 101 mms till 5.30 pm.

Sathyabama University measured 347 mms of rain and KVK Kattupakkam saw 314 mms.

Vardah moves Inland...Position as on Monday Night:


 Posted Monday Noon:"Vardah", now about to cross the Land just North of Chennai...Centre of system is just about 50 kms East/North East of Chennai at 11.30 am. System is weakening, and the distinct "Eye" is getting covered with convective clouds. 

However, the Western segment  of the wall shows deep and heavy convection, resulting in very heavy downpours with gusty winds, gusts averaging around 65-70 kmph, in Chennai currently.
55 mms were recorded till 8.30 am..and another 60 mms till noon Monday.Current  temp 21.5c.

Posted 11th Sunday Night:

"Vardah" has moved Westwards since last reporting here. It now ( Sunday Night)lies at 13.1N and 82.5E, around 225 kms East of Chennai.
Current winds are estimated currently at 125-135 kmph. 

Latest Expectations: Likely to track Westwards along the edge of a deep layered Sub Tropical Ridge. Ridge is building westwards as mentioned yesterday.Will be crosing the North T.N./South A.P. coast 12th late morning.
At time of crossing, the system can weaken to a Cyclone status, with 80-90 kmph winds at core.
Very heavy rains expected in North Coastal T.N. and Southern A.P.

Chennai: Light rains have commenced in Chennai.
Very heavy Rainfall and winds in the 80-90 kmph range expected to lash the city from late Sunday night. Difficult to say, but we can estimate around 150-160 mms till Monday mid night.Very cool day.

Bangalore: Light rains on Monday evening. Tuesday: Overcast with showers. Day will be cold with the mercury not going over 20c.

Posted 11th Sunday Evening 6 pm IST:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Vardah" has moved West as aniticipated and is located 300 kms East of Chennai at 13.1N and 83.1E. 

Currently estimated pressure is 980 mb  and estimated core wind speeds are 125- 135 kmph. Winds are gusting to 150 kmph.

Latest Expectations:  Storm likely to weaken from Sunday evening, and tracking West, likely to cross North TN coast and adjoining South A.P. coast (close to Chennai) on 12th late morning.
On crossing, winds may reduce to 80-90 kmph. But, will remain a Cyclonic storm with potential danger of a cyclone.
System will track West, and reach Bangalore in about 24hrs (by 13th) as a depression/well marked Low.

Next brief progress report with expected rainfall in Chennai and Bangalore by Sunday 11 pm IST

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Posted 10th Saturday Night:

"Vardah" a very severe cyclonic storm in the Bay at 13.2N and 86.3E...Sustained winds (1 minute average) estimated at 65 kts and gusting to 80 kts,and estimated core pressure at 985 mb.

One of the main factors that guide and steer the track of such storms is the Sub Tropical Ridge. Now, as a change, we see this ridge as deep layered, Also, the ridge is showing positive signs of extending towards West  into the Bay of Bengal. 

Latest Expectation: Thus, from the current NW track, "Vardah" will start tracking towards the West along the 15N line after 12hrs ( from this report).
Will start weakening in 24 hrs ( from Saturday Night period) and cross South A.P. coast on 12th December.

Chennai: Sunday cloudy and windy with about 10 mms of rain. Rains and winds increasing on Monday. Monday: Cool at 24c with overcast skies and very windy. Chennai can expect about 40 mms Sunday Mid night- Monday mid night.Decrease in rains from Tuesday.

Next Update on 11th Sunday at 6 pm IST

10 DEC 2016 ( EVENING ):

Severe Cyclone Vardah ,"I am in the bay ,getting the power by guzzling moisture ."

Image result for cyclone moisture sucker cartoon
Image result for cactus cartoonPeninsular India ," You suck the moisture and be on cloud nine ,for the time being my weather will be dry,sunny and fine ."

1) With severe Cyclone Vardah in the bay guzzling the moisture , the Indian peninsula has been rendered sunny,dry and lower than normal min temps have been recorded in the peninsular states and parts of central India (MP).
  • Bijapur (Karnataka) has recorded min temp of 7.5 c today morning (10 degrees below normal).
  • Adilabad (Telangana) has recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .
  • Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) / Rewa (MP) have recorded min temp of 5.6 c today morning.
  • Betul / Umaria (MP) have recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .Yesterday, Damoh had recorded 4.4 c
  • Anantapur (AP) has recorded min temp of 12.7 c today morning .
Coastal regions :
  • Valpoi AWS(Interior Goa) has recorded min temp of 13.2 c today morning.
  • Chennai AP(Tamilnadu) has recorded min temp of 19.5 c today morning.
  • Palghar AWS (Mumbai region) has recorded min temp of 11.7 c today morning.
!! Mumbai SCZ min temp (15.7 c) was lower than that of Bikaner , Jaisalmer, Barmer (Rajasthan)..The desert state is pretty warmer (min temps at some locations 7 c above normal) this time of the year !!

2) The dry weather has caused significant swings in day and night temps right upto the coast, with Vengurla (coastal Maharashtra) recording 20 c daily range .Valpoi's (Interior Goa) daily temp range was over 22 c.
  • Most places in the interior peninsula have recorded daily temp swings of over 20 c , with the semi-arid city of Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) recording daily temp swing of over 25 c .
Refer the map below

3) As severe Cyclone Vardah will approach the east coast (for prediction refer the post of Rajesh sir below) , the associated cloudiness is expected to increase the min temps of peninsular India in the coming days.

 4) Many cities in Maharashtra have recorded below 10 c min temps.Refer the map below of Maharashtra and surrounding areas (click and enlarge for better viewed on smartphone)

 (Source for Badlapur : Abhijit Modak's private readings)


Thursday, December 08, 2016

Posted Friday 9th Night:

Cyclone "Vardah" latest position is 12.1N and 89.7 E, having moved NW. Estimated sustained winds speed is 45 kts and gusting to 55 kts. Deep convection (heavy rains ) is now seen West and North-West of the circulation centre. Will continued to be steered by the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will track NW.

Latest Expectations: As it enters favourable conditions, it will continue to intensify. But from 11th morning, it will encounter dry air and increasing shear....and hence will stop its intensification and decrease in strength. Winds speed will reduce, and may be around 35 kts on crossing land. Should be crossing land around 15N -16N by 12th December.

Posted Thursday 8th December Night:

#BB-18, let us now call it Cyclone "Vardah", is located at 11.6N and 91.8E. Having an estimated core wind speed of 45 knts, its core pressure is estimated at 995 mb. Very prominent convection ( very heavy precipitation) seen North of the Centre of the system. 

Expected to strengthen further and track NW.

Latest expectation: Expected to hasten a bit now and can hit A.P. coast at around 16N, South of Vizag as early as 11th December.
Will Chennai get the rains ?

Next report on 9th Friday Night.

Friday, December 02, 2016

Posted 6th December Night:

# BB-18 showing rapid movement and development. Convective bands have appeared to the North and East of a well formed Low level circulation. Thus developed into a Depression. Cloud banding steadily becoming prominent. Centre of circulation approximately at 9.2N and 91.5E. 
System will track NW. As per indications today, will track towards North A.P.( Vizag) Coast and may cross the coastline by around 10th evening. Cyclone strength possible. 
Seems it will by-pass Chennai ?

Rainfall in Andaman Islands till now from BB-18 as compiled by Pradeep John.

Dense fog likely in Parts of NCR, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar next 3 mornings.

Posted 5th December Monday:

# BB-18, a Well Marked Low, is currently at 5N and 98E. The system tracks W/NW initially, and soon has a potential to develop in favourable conditions.Currently it has an elongated low level circulation, which will concise as it strengthens.
Seems as of now, will track NW till it reached 87E-90E region. 

The strength and exact location of the WD coming in the North regions on the 10th will depend where and how the WD and its associated upper height tilt is located.
As of now, judging the BB-18 and upper level trough in the North West regions of the sub continent, the effect of WD may be possible in Kashmir and H.P. only and in extreme North Pakistan. 

BB-17 has moved into the East Central Arabian Sea area.

Posted 3rd December Saturday:

# BB-18 is still to form. Slow on the schedule mentioned yesterday, There is an UAC over the expected region (of BB-18 formation). UAC will descend to form a Low on 4th around the location 7N and 92E. 
Observing the parameters, and the steering Sub Tropical Ridge, we (today) see the track, as the system on formation, heading towards the A.P. coast. The conditions favour the formation of a Cyclone on approaching the East Coast of India.

BB-17 has emerged in the Arabian Sea. A Low is seen over the Lakshdweep region.An associated UAC also prevails.

Posted Friday Night (2nd December):

# BB-18 (Low) likely to form on 3rd around location 7N and 92E. Initial study of parameters show track as NW towards A.P. coast. Again, synoptic conditions indicate further strengthening and high possibility of Cyclone formation on reaching coast. At present it seems BB-18 will cross coast after about 5 days.
Follow BB-18 on Vagaries...Rare occasion when Vagaries has announced the possibility of Cyclone formation before system is formed.
Next update: Saturday Night (3rd) at 11 pm IST.

BB-17 is now stationed in interior T.N. as a Low. Upper air trough associated with it is tilting towards South West.

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Chennai got 39.5 mms and Chennai AP measured 35 mms in 24 hrs as on Friday morning.Vagaries estimate was around 50 mms.
Some Thursday Day temps and Friday morning Lows: Adirampatanma saw a high of 21.5c, and a Low of 18.9c.
Karaikal saw a high of 22.6c and a low of 22c.
Kodaikanal saw a high of 13.4c and low was 10.7c.
Many towns in TN saw a cool day at around 23c, with the range between day and night of around 2c.

Posted Thursday Night ...

True to its expectations, BB-17 is crossing into Tamil Nadu on Thursday night as a Depression.
Vagaries has never mentioned a Cyclone from the start of its tracking BB-17 8 days ago. And also clarified yesterday that IMD and International Models are mentioning a Cyclone. 

Chennai received 30 mms on Thursday in 12 hrs ended 5.30 pm. 50 mms were estimated here in 24 hrs.

BB-17 is a Low level Circulation ( Depression) crossing the TN coast tonite. The estimated winds around the circulation is 30 knts. Vertical shear is not favourable for the circulation.
It is not showing any associated deep convection.

Let us start the chase for BB-18 ...Likely to form around the same location as BB-17. 
BB-18 could be more effective for TN...

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Posted Wednesday Night:

BB-17 has been upgraded to Cyclone "Nada" status by IMD and International Weather Models.

As per IMD Bulletin .." The cyclonic storm “Nada” over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards during past six hours with a speed of about 27 kmph and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2016 near Latitude 9.8ºN and Longitude 84.0ºE over southwest Bay of Bengal, about 550 km southeast of Chennai,"

Moving along the Southern Edge of the Sub Tropical Ridge, this "Cyclone" will track towards the Tamil Nadu coast. 

Please not I have put "Cyclone" into inverted commas.Estimated central Pressure is 1000 mb and estimated core winds at 40 knts, 

Heavy showers expected in Chennai from 1st December, amounting to around 50 mms. Rains will decrease to half the amount on 2nd and substantially decrease thereafter.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Posted Tuesday 29th Night:

BB-17 is now a Depression, estimated location on Tuesday night is at 6.5N and 87.1E. No change in track forecast.
Chennai: Squally weather from 30th, with very windy conditions on 1st, winds gusts upto 45-50 kmph. Thunder showers on 1st December.Around 50 mms of precipitation expected.
Bangalore: Showers on 1st December, with cool day at around 24c, Can expect around 25 mms on 1st.

Mumbai: Mumbai skies will get partly cloudy the next 3 days, Wednesday 30th - Friday 2nd December. 
Days, which are quite hot currently at 34-35c, will see a fall to 31/32c levels. But, no appreciable fall seen in the night temperatures.Maybe a marginal rise in the minimum temperatures from Wednesday night.

Pune: Next 3 days will be partly cloudy to cloudy on Thursday. Substantial drop in day temperatures from the 34/35c levels. But rise in night temperatures, maybe by 5c...minimum rising to around 15c from Wednesday night.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Posted 28th November Night:
Initial Gear Up of NEM ...

As mentioned yesterday, BB-17 has formed and is a Well Marked Low in the South -East Bay Region as on Monday evening. System is intensifying fast, and can become a depression by Tuesday Night. 
Tracking NW and heading towards Tamil Nadu Coast as expected.Could cross South of Chennai around 1st. By 3rd, BB-17 ( Weak Low) re-emerges in the Arabian Sea off Kerala Coast.
Squally winds likely along TN coast from 30th, and rains commencing from 1st December.
BB-18 follows soon...

Chennai: Rains expected from 30th evening. Around 55-60 mms from  30th Night-1st Night. Gusty winds and squally weather, with wind speeds peaking around 55-60 kmph on 1st December.
Bangalore: Thursday 1st December, and the city will cool down with heavy showers in most parts. With around 15-20 mms on Thursday, the day's high will be around 25c. Friday 2nd, will be overcast with lesser rains, but cooler day at around 22/23c.

Mahableshwar (Maharashtra) , a hill station at an average height of 4400 feet above sea level, recorded its hottest ever November day at 32c !
Bangalore, the Garden City, also saw a new November record at 33c !
The Day Night range continues in Maharshtra. 
Shivkumar Mogal sends this table of 28th November.

Posted 28th November Night:
Initial Gear Up of NEM ...

As mentioned yesterday, BB-17 has formed and is a Well Marked Low as on Monday evening. System is intensifying fast, and can become a depression by Tuesday Night. 
Tracking NW and heading towards Tamil Nadu Coast as expected.Could cross South of Chennai around 1st. By 3rd, BB-17 ( Weak Low) re-emerges in the Arabian Sea off Kerala Coast.
Squally winds likely along TN coast from 30th, and rains commencing from 1st December.
BB-18 follows soon...

Chennai: Rains expected from 30th evening. Around 55-60 mms from  30th Night-1st Night. Gusty winds and squally weather, with wind speeds peaking around 55-60 kmph on 1st December.
Bangalore: Thursday 1st December, and the city will cool down with heavy showers in most parts. With around 15-20 mms on Thursday, the day's high will be around 25c. Friday 2nd, will be overcast with lesser rains, but cooler day at around 22/23c.

Mahableshwar (Maharashtra) , a hill station at an average height of 4400 feet above sea level, recorded its hottest ever November day at 32c !
Bangalore, the Garden City, also saw a new November record at 33c !
The Day Night range continues in Maharshtra. 
Shivkumar Mogal sends this table of 28th November.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Thirivallur & Puducherry -92%, Kancheepuram -88%, Nammakal -87%, Salem & Vellore -86% and Chennai mention a few,a very poor picture is depicted for Tamil Nadu. (Below)
i) After a very Poor November Start for the North East Monsoon, things seem to be looking bright soon.
After the formation of the much awaited trough, On 28th November, low pressure (BB-17) is forming at 5N and 90.5E in the South East Bay.....System will intensify, and track towards the Tamil Nadu coast. The intensified system may cross as a Deep Depression South of Chennai around 1st December.
Squally winds are likely along the T.N. coast from 30th November.
Studying the current possible scenario and BB-17 strength, the estimated rain amounts ( estimated as on 27th November) for Chennai would be around 55-60 mms on 1st, and then reducing to around 15-20 mms on 2nd December. But we will judge and monitor the developments daily.
BB-17 will weaken on crossing, and a weak Low will re-emerge in the Arabian Sea.

Another back to back Low, BB-18, is possibly forming in the same 5N and 90E region around the 3rd of December. Along a trough, the BB- 18 will track almost along the BB-17 track towards TN.

ii) Massive temperature variations were seen in some Maharashtra towns on 26th/27th November...

On 26th November Ahmednagar (Maharashtra) max temp 35.4°C and min temp 6.6°C. So, Temperature difference was 28.8°C.(Ahmednagar record and India range record is 29.2c on 15th December 2003.See here on the page for more variation ranges and Sub Continent record of 29.5c...

on 27th, Mumbai Scruz saw a difference of 19.6c, (high for a coastal city), when the day was 36.2c and night 16.6c. 
Pune saw a range of 22.8c, with 32.1c as the high and 9.3c as the low.

19th May .. South West Monsoon season has commenced for India..👇 Monsoon moves into South Andaman Islands... Kerala Expected to get heavy P...