31st October
Unseasonal Rains in Drought hit Saurashtra
Severe hail storm in Devbhumi Dwarka district west saurashtra today
Gaurav Raninga Reports:
Saturday, October 31, 2026
31st October
TOP 10 BMC RAINFALL AMOUNTS
*12 HOURS (FROM 9.30PM ON 30/10/26) TO 9.30AM ON 31/10/26)*
S Ward Office Bhandup: 73 mm
Tagore Nagar Mun. School, Vikhroli: 72 mm
Building proposal office Vikroli West: 61.8 mm
Tembipada Mun. School, Bhandup: 32.8 mm
Ramabai Mun. School, Ghatkopar: 31 mm
Eye Hospital Grant Road: 28.4 mm
Frosberry Reserviour: 28 mm
Savitribai Phule Mun. School Worli Naka and
Britania storm water pumping Darukhana : 27.8 mm
Maravli Mun. School, Chembur: 26.4 mm
Memonwada Fire Station: 24.4 mm
Record low day temperatures in UP
Maximum temperatures on 30 October 2026
Varanasi: 22.6c (9c below normal), this is the 3rd lowest day temperature in October in history
Muzaffarnagar: 20.2c (9c below normal). this is the 2nd lowest day temperature in October in history.
Meerut: 20.6c (9.1c below normal)
Barabanki: 23.0c (8.1c below normal). This is jointly the 2nd lowest day temperature in October in history.
Banda: 22.6c (10.8c below normal). This is the lowest day temperature in October after 1997.
Fursatganj: 21.8c (9.6c below normal). This is the lowest day temperature in october in history.
Jhansi: 22.6c (10.1c below normal). this is jointly the 3rd lowest day temperature in October in history.
Gorakhpur: 22.1c (9.3c below normal). This is the lowest day temperature in October after 2013 and 3rd lowest in history.
lucknow: 23.8c (7.6c below normal). This is the lowest day temperature in october after 2015 and jointly 5th lowest in history.
Sultanpur: 22c (8.1c below normal). This is the 2nd lowest day temperature in October in history
Etawah: 23.6c (5.6c below normal). This is the 5th lowest day temperature in October in history.
Coldest October day in Delhi in history
On 30 October, Delhi Safdrajung maximum temperature only 20.7c, this is the lowest day temperature recorded in Delhi in October month in history, breaking the previous record of 21.5c set in 1975.
Delhi Palam: 20.5c (11.1c below normal)
Friday, October 30, 2026
2nd wettest October for Delhi since 2009
Delhi (Safdarjung) recorded 61.4mm rain in last 24hours. Delhi October rain total now stands at 123.3mm.
This is now the 2nd wettest October for Delhi at least since 2009. Yearwise October rain (mm)
2026 (till 30 Oct): 123.3
2025: 89.3
2024: 0.0
2023: 5.4
2022: 128.6
2021: 122.5
2020: 0.0
2019: 47.3
2018: 0.0
2017: 0.0
2016: 2.0
2015: 0.4
2014: 2.2
2013: 72.7
2012: 8.1
2011: 0.0
2010: 6.0
2009: 5.4
Data: IMD
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
28th October:
Input by Vag.Dr Vineet Kumar 👇
Whatever on Earth happens add ElNino in it 🥴
This is totally wrong message that ElNino fueled this cyclone
We need to see other factors , earth doesnt revolve only around ElNino
See this attached graph, it shows avg. Maximum windspeed of postmonsoon season cyclones in bay of bengal during different ENSO phases
IMD BULLETIN
Cyclone Warning :
Date : 28-10-2026 Time of issue : 11:00:00 Validity : 6 hrs
VSCS Arnab crossed AP and Yanam coasts near Narsapur during 0200-0800 IST on 28 Oct, with winds 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph.
Landfall completed by 0800 IST.
It will move NNW and weaken into CS within 6 hours and DD in the subsequent 6 hours.
Arnab Fury ( Courtesy Vag. Gokul)
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
Inputs from Vag.Vineet, Mitan, Shreyas
*Cyclone Arnab with windspeed 120knots hold the record of strongest bay of bengal postmonsoon season cyclone in elnino year in satellite era (1982 onwards)
*Cyclone Arnab windspeed 120knots (as per jtwc). This is now the strongest postmonsoon season cyclone in north Indian ocean since 2019
*Cyclone Arnab along with hudhud in 2014 hold the record of strongest bay of bengal postmonsoon season cyclone in elnino year in satellite era (1982 onwards)
*As per visakhapatnam radar an outer ring seems forming around inner ring, which can trigger onset of eyewall replacement cycle
Arnab..2.50 pm IST..eye dispersing...Landfall ?
Arnab..1. 15 pm IST 27TH
.
*New stats alert: As per JTWC Cyclone Arnab intensification of 55knots in 24hrs is jointly the 4th most intense rapid intensification by a postmonsoon season cyclone in the Bay of bengal during the satellite era (since 1982)
27th Morning Update brief on Arnab from Vag.Vineet,Mitan Shreyas
Based on JTWC data, Cyclone Arnab intensified by 55knots in 24hrs, this is the most intense rapid intensification observed in Bay of Bengal postmonsoon season cyclone after year 2018
Latest structure shows it has reached to Cat 3 intensity at least 100knots
* Most rain over coastal Andhra will happen before cyclone center hit Andhra
* Going to be a big one for AP coast...they haven't got such a strong storm in quite some time
*Bad underestimation for Cyclone Arnab . According to ADT it’s 100knots now with 959hpa pressure.
* Arnab pressure now 957.1hpa as per ADT analysis
*Massive rapid deepening of Arnab cyvlone in progress
*It is going through steep fall in pressure
Monday, October 26, 2026
Arnab Update 26th 10. 30 PM IST
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Arnab"
| Current Intensity Analysis | |
| | UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2026 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 16:00:00 N Lon : 86:35:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.0mb/ 74.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.7
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -29.8C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C
Scene Type : EYE |
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Friday, October 23, 2026
Mumbai Outlook and Synoptic Situation of Arabian and Bay Systems.
23rd Night Post:.. Arabian and Bay Systems outlook below.
Mumbai region may see a slight drop of 1-2°C to (34/36°) in the day and to (22/23°) at night temperatures 27th onwards from the current values.
As the Arabian Sea low dissipates and the Bay low intensifies by Sunday, weather over Maharashtra will remain dry.
Slight drop in temperatures likely for Madhya Maharashtra region next week, with nights and early mornings turning pleasant (below 17°C in areas of Pune/Nashik/Satara).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Synoptic Situation
First Cyclone Watch for 2026 over the North Indian Ocean!
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been active since last few days over the Indian Ocean (Phases 2-3). Two lows had formed earlier, one in the Arabian Sea (moved towards Somalia), one in the Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast and a weak tropical cyclone (named Agueda) in the southern Indian Ocean.
The earlier two lows have now dissipated, but two new low pressure areas have formed, one over the southeastern Arabian Sea off Keralam coast and the other over central Bay of Bengal.
Although as of present, the clouds appear little more dense over the Arabian Sea and the sea surface temperatures are favourable for intensification, higher vertical wind shear is likely preventing this low from developing further. This low could eventually move east and dissipate while crossing Keralam coast by 25th October, bringing moderate-heavy rains for southern peninsula, mainly Keralam, and Western Ghats.
On the other hand, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favourable for the further development and intensification of the Bay of Bengal low pressure area into a depression, deep depression and thereafter into a tropical cyclone over next 48 hours.
This will be the first cyclone over north Indian Ocean for 2026 and as per the nomenclature, it will be called "Arnab".
Guidance from various weather models suggest the Bay low to intensify into a strong cyclone and move towards central-north coastal Andhra Pradesh by 27th/28th October. The east coast from central AP upto south Odisha could experience impacts from this developing system, with gusty winds and heavy rains. Storm surge is possible for north coastal AP and south Odisha coasts.
There could be some change in the expected track of this cyclone, will be updated in subsequent posts.
850 hPa winds are shown below. Combined effect of both the lows would result in gusty southwesterly winds for south Keralam and Sri Lanka for the next 2 days.
More updates in the coming days...
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Meteorological Status of El Niño ( Below)
Vagaries was not absolutely off the mark in the forecast for 17th to 19th for South Maharashtra... Pune, *Rainfall(mm) Pune from 0830 hrs IST of 19th October 2026 to 0830 hrs IST of 20th October 2026*
HADAPSAR 14.0, MAGARPATTA 14.0, CHINCHWAD 3.0, NARAYANGOAN 1.5, HAVELI 1.0, NDA 0.5
& Mahabaleshwar did get moderate rainfall on 18th /19th.
2 dayscAccumulated rainfall map
- ----—---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Meteorological Status of El Nino
- The latest weekly relative Niño3.4 index value for the week ending 11 October 2026 is +2.81 °C, well above the El Niño threshold (+0.80 °C).
- In the bureau weekly sea surface temperature (SST) data, (GAMSSA, starting in 2008) this is the highest value on record, exceeding +2.78 °C for the week ending 22 November 2015
- Outlook & Forecast
- Peak Intensity: Models indicate the event will peak around November–December 2026, with a high probability of becoming a historic, ultra-strong event exceeding pre-1950 levels.
- Duration: El Niño conditions have a 100% probability of persisting through the remainder of 2026 and boreal spring (MAM) 2027.
- Transition: A gradual weakening is expected by mid-2027, with ENSO-neutral conditions favored by summer (JJA 2027).
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Saturday, October 17, 2026
Friday, October 16, 2026
IMD-based 1–15 October average maximum for Mumbai and Pune
IMD-based 1–15 October average maximum
For Mumbai Santacruz
For Pune
Year Average maximum
1991. 32.81°C
1992. 30.41°C
1993. 31.12°C
1994. 32.34°C
1995. 31.29°C
1996. 29.86°C
1997*. 32.79°C
1998. 30.39°C
1999. 29.87°C
2000. 32.1°C
2001. 30.21°C
2002. 34.78°C
2003. 32.97°C
2004. 30.88°C
2005. 30.87°C
2006. 31.04°C
2007. 32.50°C
2008. 31.86°C
2009. 30.51°C
2010. 32.09°C
2011. 31.94°C
2012. 31.43°C
2013. 30.43°C
2014. 33.34°C.
2015. 32.35°C
2016. 28.78°C.
2017. 30.68°C
2018. 32.41°C
2019. 30.22°C
2020. 30.26°C
2021. 31.23°C
2022. 28.93°C
2023 33.09°C
2024. 32.58°C
2025. 31.40°C
2026. 34.97°C
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
14th October Post
1. Low Pressure forming in shear zone Trough in T. N. Can bring in the NEM into Tamil Nadu on the 17th.... *See NEM note below*
2. Low pressure moves NW through T. N. into Karnataka towards South Maharashtra.
3. Heavy thundershowers in Bengaluru from 16th - 23rd.
4. Unseasonal rains expected in South Maharashtra and along Ghats on 18th - 21st.. Mahabaleshwar : Thundershower expected on 17th/18th.
5. Pune :Thundershowers expected in Pune on 19th/20/21..Heavy on 21st... Wet Dussehra.
6. Mumbai Rain expected in Mumbai from 18th - 20th...Wet Dussehra.
—-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*NEM Arrival Criteria :
On many occasions, there is no clear indication between the withdrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.
So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.
-The main has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.
-Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.
In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
14th November Night: WML now...Depression on 15th..heading for more strengthening Cooler Nights in Interior Maharashtra Yavatmal 12.4°, Go...
-
Much Awaited Monsoon Analysis to Date from ..None Other than Our GSB..on "Stats and Analysis" Page..Just Recieved On Saturday ... -
Short Narration: Monday 1st/Tuesday 2nd : The heaviest rains are in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka and No...
