Friday, September 16, 2011

The upper air W.D. S-3, which is traversing the Northern regions of the sub-continent has precipitated good rains in the regions. Inter action with the easterlies has brought good beneficial rains in the region.
Amongst the heavy rain figures till Friday morning: Ludhiana 149 mms, New Delhi (Palam) 121 mms, Patiala 94 mms, Ambala 91 mms.
and in Pakistan:Rawalpini 125 mms, Islamabad: 76 mms, Muree 60 mms.

On Friday, W.D. will move eastwards into the hills, and precipitate rains in H.P. and Kashmir, with possible snow in the higher reaches. Rains in Punjab, Haryana ,Delhi and west U.P. will decrease after Saturday.

BB-7, at 1000 mb, lies over Jharkand. Getting resistence from S-3 and from a high ridge forming in the west. Expected to move NNE, and track towards East U.P. in the next 24 hrs. Precipitation in the eastern region of the state could be heavy from Friday thru Sunday.
Possibly, rains will also move into Central Nepal from Saturday. Kathmandu will have a rainy day on Saturday and if the system survives, possibly Sunday.

West coast off shore trough remains weak. But never the less still present. Forecast charts indiacate a slight "bubbling-up" in the trough off the Konkan in the next 24 hrs. I would put it as a temporary surge, looking at the "anti" scenario in the region.

All regions of South Madhya Mah. will receive thundershowers on the weekend. Lonaval and Mahableshwar too will get thundershowers.

Konkan will get scattered thunderstorms.

Activation of a fading off shore trough will ensure some rains in South Gujarat also.
Surat and Bharuch towns can expect rain with thunder for the weekend.
SWM withdrawal pushing into Kutch and North Gujarat from next week.

On the western front, we see the Vagaries estimate of SWM withdrawal taking shape. With the 200 mb jet streams changing direction sharply by 180 degrees in the above 30N regions, the process has started.

A ridge is seen forming in the region at the 850 mb level. 700 mb winds indicate a post monsoon scenario in the coming 2 days over Central Sindh and West Rajasthan. Looking at the current chart and next 2 days expectations, vagaries would withdraw the SWM from Sindh and West Rajasthan from Sunday. ( Mentioned in vagaries on Tuesday, 13th).


NT, the decreasing "monsoonish" atmosphere mentioned in Vagaries will continue.

Mumbai received 16 mms rain average between the 2 stations, S'Cruz and Colaba on Friday. Vagaries estimate was 15 mms.

Saturday/Sunday/Monday: Partly cloudy day and sunny spells. Thundershower later in the day. Heavy spells in some areas of the city. Light drizzling rain preceding the thundershower. Daily Rain amounts 20-25 mms.

(Only for those interested: Kaas photo album put up on Vagaries Links section).

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