The Northern Magnetic Pole Shift

On Weather Knowledge blog-59

Posted 13th July

Mumbai Special 

Mumbai, on Monday 14th, will see increased rain frequency and intensity.  After almost no rain last few days, city will see some occasional showers on Monday. 

Due to a weak circulation off the coast, Mumbai will get some rain only for 36 hrs. Expectations are around 25- 35 mms.

Pune will also see the effect of the development on Monday with some increasing rain frequency. Expectations are 10-15 mms.

 Weather Knowledge Blog Updated with No.58---Cross Winds in Mesosphere

12th July 

A Meteorological Note on the Synoptic Situation by Vag. Gokul.

Moist Equatorial Waves at play over the Equatorial Indian Ocean:

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As the equatorial region is convectively active, peninsular India could be temporarily under a relatively drier spell.

Recent satellite based images/analyses and NWP model based real time analyses suggests that transient moist equatorial waves are at play in the equatorial Indian Ocean. An eastward propagating Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave(CCKW) is seen over the central equatorial Indian Ocean near Maldives that is associated with enhanced atmospheric deep convective clouds. The wave is embedded in a deep Baroclinic large scale environment. The wave is also seen associated with deeper moist column, intense upward motion, high theta-e at mid tropospheric levels, enhanced upper level divergence etc. Also in the vicinity is a mid tropospheric circulation, which could be a high frequency Rossby wave response to the heating. Latest forecasts suggest that this CCKW could interfere with the large enhanced convective envelope over the Maritime Continent. 

 

Sea Ice Data Cut-off: Climate Alarmists Panic, But Is It Really a Crisis?

Interesting article on Author's Page of this blog

10th July Post

Medium term Outlook (Not frequent in Vagaries)

The South Asian Monsoon circulation to weaken gradually towards the end of July and beginning of August 2025

The monsoon rainfall over major parts of India and South Asia in general have been above normal since the middle of June and gradually the large scale Monsoon Trough got established towards the end of June. 

 In the coming weeks, as per the latest available extended range NWP model forecasts, the monsoon rains will be moderately active until the end of July with large regional variability in rainfall pattern over India.

Note Excerpts from Vag. Gokul.

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Mumbai:

Friday 11th/Saturday 12th/Sunday13th: Some passing showers in parts of city intercepted with some sunshine. 7- 10 mms per day.

Monday 14th & Tuesday 15th : Marginal increase in rainfall frequency = 20-30 mms per day.

16th onwards decrease in rains.

Pune: Weekend >Partly Cloudy and no meaningful rains..hardly upto 7 mms per day in parts of city.

Almost a semi dry spell till 16th at least.

Goa: Moderate rains on Friday/Saturday/Sunday ..but substantial increase on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th with 150 cumulative in these 2 days.

Sambhajinagar : Very negligible Rainfall till 16th at least.

Bharuch: Very little rain this weekend..Some increased rainfall on Monday for a day.

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Medikeri , Bengaluru and Hassan in South Interior Karnataka are facing a very dry and acute Monsoon, as seen from the table below.