Weather Knowledge Site updated with No.58
Vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Thursday, July 03, 2025
Wednesday, July 02, 2025
The South Asian Monsoon 3D Large-scale circulation is now fully established:
While,June has been an above normal rainfall period for the country as a whole with a cumulative rainfall departure of +9%, there were regional variations in the rainfall pattern with north east and southern peninsular India ending with below normal rains.
Meanwhile, the latest sub-seasonal scale forecasts from global NWP models for the next 2 weeks indicate that the pattern of monsoon rainfall anomalies over India and the larger south Asia could be exhibiting regional differences. While the forecasts continue to indicate an active rainy spell for much of the core monsoon zone (central India) due to an active Monsoon Trough with frequent westward propagating transient lows, the peninsular India could be under the influence of suppressed rainfall conditions.
With the onset phase of the current year's South Asian Monsoon now drawing to an end, the 3D large scale monsoon circulation associated with it is now completely established as seen from the latest available observations. Several semi-permanent features like the large scale upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, Tropical easterly jet, low level monsoonal westerlies, large scale upper level divergence over NW Pacific, Mascarene High, Monsoon trough,etc., have all established. One can see a completely established Baroclinic atmospheric structure over South Asia. Interesting days ahead with anomalies across spatial and temporal scales that would interact with this established Monsoon background.
Credit for above analysis to Vagarian GokulMumbai: Increase in rainfall frequency from Saturday 5th.
Occasional heavy showers.
Tuesday, July 01, 2025
Monday, June 30, 2025
Rainfall of Major Indian cities in June
Hyderabad: 15mm
Bengaluru: 24.4mm
Srinagar: 37.5mm
Patna: 61.6mm
Amitsar: 100.9mm
Chennai : 106 mm
New Delhi S'Jung :107 mm
Raipur: 125.9mm
Bhopal: 155.9mm
Shillong: 184.2mm
Guwahati: 185.1mm
Kolkata: 198 mms
Prayagraj: 231mm
Ahmedabad: 249.6mm
Chandigarh: 262.1mm
Jaipur: 263.8mm
Imphal: 264.6mm
Shimla: 271mm
Thiruvananthapuram: 307 mms
Agartala: 391.2mm
Dehradun: 398.7mm
Mumbai santacruz: 513 mm
Panjim: 733mm
Port Blair: 754.1mm
Cherrapunji: 974 mms
Mangaluru: 1257.1mm
Compiled by Vagarian Vineet
vagaries day hits 8000 (28th)and 7219 (30th)
Sunday, June 29, 2025
29th Evening:
The Monsoon axis is in the North today, and the BB 5 developed may track along the axis.
But, the system may keep the west coast and Gujarat somewhat rainy. Interior Maharashtra and Gujarat will continue to lesser intensity rainfall..
Mumbai: Next 4 days will be partly cloudy. with a few passing showers, some heavy in localised areas.We may assume 15-20mms/day. No meaningful rains to worry.
Pune; Partly cloudy and some light showers ...morning /afternoon.
Sambhajinagar: Light rains around 5 mm/day. The standing crops do not need the rains now, till next 4 days.
29th June
Very heavy rains around Pune Ghats:
Pune 03 UTC Rainfall(mm) dt. 29.06.2025
LAVALE 181.2
Taminin 50.0
Ambona 47.0
Munshi 42.0
KURVANDE 37.5
GIRIVAN 30.0
Mumbai Lakes Storage improves over last year levels☺
Storage %
2025: 39.5% full
2024: 5.4% full
2023: 8.9% full
-------------------------
New UAC developing near West Bengal/Odisha region.Monsoon trough axis close to Delhi NCR. Rain/TS likely.
Thursday, June 26, 2025
26th June:
Gujarat gets good rains;
Some high rainfall amounts in cms;
Dolvan (dist Tapi) 19, Umerpada (dist Surat) 14, Vansda (dist Navsari) 13, Sagbara (dist Narmada) 12, Khergam (dist Navsari) 12, Karjan (dist Vadodara) 12, Bardoli (dist Surat) 12,Waghai (dist Dangs) 11, Kamrej (dist Surat) 11, Valod (dist Tapi) 10, Chikhli (dist Navsari) 10,Dediapada (dist Narmada) 10, Dang_kvk Aws (dist Dangs) 9, Mahuva (dist Surat) 9, Valsad (distValsad) 9, Pardi (dist Valsad) 8, Ukai (dist Surat) 8, Narmada_kvk Aws (dist Narmada) 7, Vyara (dist Tapi) 7, Kalol (dist Panchmahal) 7, Ghoghamba (dist Panchmahal) 7, Bodeli (dist Chhota Udepur) 7, Naswadi (dist Chhota Udepur) 7, Jambughoda (dist Panchmahal) 7, Padra (dist Vadodara) 7,Himatanagar (dist Sabarkantha) 6, Dhansura (dist Aravalli) 6, Subir (dist Dangs) 6, Sankheda (distChhota Udepur) 6, Kukarmunda (dist Tapi) 6, Jetpur Pavi (dist Chhota Udepur) 6,
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26th June:
Mumbai :
Mumbai Colaba reached a total rain of 548 mms for June, and Santacruz 479 mms for June. Theses have already surpassed the normal June rainfall of 506 mms(Colaba) and 526 mms (Santacruz).
Annual, adding May Rainfall, it is already at 1051 mms at Colaba....Annual Normal is 2213 mms !
Now, this weekend 27th - 30th June, Mumbai can expect occasional passing showers and accumulative rainfall of 55-65 mms in the 4 days.
Pune will see light to moderate passing showers and monsoon weather...cool days .Expect 25-30 mms next 4 days cumulative.
Sambhajinagar: though more rains are required, the next 4 days does not indicate much meaningful rains. Passing showers accumulating just 20-25 mms in next 4 days.
संभाजीनगर: जरी आणखी पावसाची आवश्यकता असली तरी, पुढील ४ दिवसांत फारसा अर्थपूर्ण पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता नाही. पुढील ४ दिवसांत फक्त २०-२५ मिमी पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता आहे.Bharuch: Will now see some reduction in rains next 4 days. Though there will be showers, it will be lesser frequency, wit around 25 mms cumulative next 4 days. Warmer nights though.
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Monday, June 23, 2025
23rd June afternoon Post
The Axis of the Monsoon is in a Northerly Position.
The West Coast off Shore trough will remain fairly active this week ...bringing normal rains.
Mumbai: 23rd - -26th:
Cloudy skies with a couple of occasional showers during the day.
Cumulatively Mumbai can get around 60-80 mms from 23rd to 26th.
Colaba has covered 90% of Normal June Rainfall. and 90% of June was received in May.
Santacruz has covered 80% of Normal June.
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Pune: 23rd - 26th;
Days cool around 27c..Cloudy Monsoonish weather weather with pockets getting light rains.
Cumulative rainfall from 23rd to 26th around 20-30 mms.
Total June rainfall 242 mms ...142% of Normal.
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Goa: 23rd to 26th: Moderate to heavy rainfall expected daily.
Panaji has received 70 % of June quota. June total may normalize, as we can expect 100 -120 mms next 4 days.
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Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada will not the sufficient rainfall required . Nexts 4 day may cumulate to 25-30 mms. Sambhajinagar has received only 27% of June rainfall... 43 mms in June
मध्य महाराष्ट्र आणि मराठवाड्यात आवश्यक तेवढा पाऊस पडणार नाही.Friday, June 20, 2025
20th June...Not a Usual Scenario
Monsoon Trough (Dynamic Low) gets established for the first time this monsoon season:
-------------------------------------
The Monsoon Trough or the Dynamic low is getting established for the first time this monsoon season over the Indo Gangetic Plains. The mechanism is an indication of the arrival of moist monsoonal air mass and related physical processes over the northern boundary of the Indian subcontinent. With this, the advancing phase of summer monsoon rains is nearing completion. The latest update from IMD indicates that the monsoon isochrone has covered most parts of Uttar Pradesh and parts of north western Himalayas in the past 24 hours. Satellite observations indicate formation of persistent low to mid level cloud layers on a large scale to the south of the Monsoon Trough axis. Rainfall observations over the core monsoon zone show that the region has been experiencing huge positive rainfall anomalies in the past 4-5 days with area averaged rainfall being close to + 2 standard deviations. Meanwhile, NWP model forecasts continue to indicate an early advance of Monsoon over the north western regions of the Sub Continent.
Analysis and Report of Latest Scenario by Vagarian Gokul.
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Twin low pressure systems...one over Gujarat (AS-2) and the other near West Bengal (BB-3).
Monday, June 16, 2025
Sunday, June 15, 2025
Saturday, June 14, 2025
14th June;
Pune Shivajinagar: 63mm
: Pashan: 67mm
Lohegaon: 54.2mm
Chinchwad: 58mm
Magarpatta: 43.5mm
Rainfall ending 8:30am on 14/06/2025 for DIST: Ratnagiri in mm:
1. Nate: 175
2. Satwali & Pawas: 163
3. Jaitapur: 153
4. Rajapur: 135
5. Kumbhwade: 81
Source: Agriculture Department Rainfall ending 8:30am on 14/06/2025 for DIST: Sindhudurg in mm:
1. Aajgaon: 196
2. Shiroda: 193
3. Vengurla: 143
4. Mithbav: 129
Source: Agriculture Department
Friday, June 13, 2025
Wednesday, June 11, 2025
11th June ...afternoon post
Vag. Dr.Vineet informs:
For the 1st time after 2012, no cyclone has formed in north Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea+bay of bengal) in the pre-monsoon season (April-june).
Vag.Shreyas informs:
Pacific system activating SW winds over Bay...Somali Jet gradually increasing in strength so Arabian Sea branch will get activated soon...the current ridge will break down and westerlies will strengthen from 13th.
UAC seen at 700 hPa over east coast - likely to move west
The UAC will give moderate-heavy rain over parts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
Next 24-36 hours: chances of some heavy rain/TS for south Madhya Maharashtra and north Interior Karnataka...possibly even covering parts of Goa and South Konkan coast/Ghats.
Vagaries confirms its view;
Mumbai/Pune Rainfall frequency and intensity will increase from 13th June and will continue with better rains next 7 days.
Sambhajinagar will see an increase in rainfall frequency from 13th for next 7 days.
Gujarat Region will get dry weather till 16th at least. Maybe with rains on South Gujarat coast: Valsad/Surat and Bharuch regions from 14th..
Monsoon may slide into South Gujarat.
Sunday, June 08, 2025
8th June.... Overall SWM Deficiency is - 25%
We see Monsoon progress stalled at Mumbai since 26th May.Moved upto Mumbai by 26th May, not as a technical Monsoon current, but temporary advance helped by the Low Pressure AS 1.
Later on 3rd June, aided by W/SW winds upto 700 depth, we got a "feeble" advance of monsoon upto Mumbai.
Now with the system having fizzled out after 29th May, there is no supporting system to revive the Monsoon. Hence, we expected the break and decrease in rainfall all along. {Due to moisture incursion, however there were sporadic sharp spells in Maharashtra,}
No meaningfully revival is seen along the West Coast, as the off shore trough remains dormant or absent.
Till Friday, 13th June no proper Monsoon Rains , the June types, will be possible along Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka coast, interior Maharashtra and N.I. Karnataka and Gujarat.
Belgavi, Solapur and Adjoining towns will get regular " pop up" thundershowers.
Bangaluru can get the local thundershowers on a few days in the week.
Mumbai: The coming week remains without the Typical " Mumbai Monsoon " rains. Showers in parts of city, not widespread possible.
No meaningfully revival of proper Monsoon rains till Friday 13th June.
Pune: Partly cloudy. with some showers in the parts of city. Properly revival of rains from 12th June only.
Mahabaleshwar rainfall increasing substantially after Friday 13th.
Bharuch : Almost dry, with no meaningfully rains till this weekend, heating up the Weather. Heat upto 42-in 43c expected in Ahmedabad.
We are concentrating on the staggering Monsoon, but the coming week, 9th onwards, can see a major Heat spell in Rajasthan ( > in 45c) and Delhi Punjab around 42-44c. The lows May not go below 30c!
This is in liueof the missed heat waves in May.😉😉
Saturday, June 07, 2025
Vagaries' Views:
IMD AWS page is not available for public, IMD Rapid Satellite section is also is not available. When other agencies like ECMWF are fully to open data to foster research IMD has opted to make data inaccessible. What could be the thought process behind these decisions.
It's very important to get real time data for public during emergencies. Keeping this information confidential/inaccessible makes it illogical! And there was no point of developing this website with this data at all if you can't keep it open for all
What IMD has said earlier:
"Mrityunjay Mohapatra (IMD DG) is spearheading a major expansion of AWS and ARG stations through the WINDS program. This plan will boost station numbers from a few thousand to over 200,000 across India, aiming to deliver timely localised weather data directly to farmers and the general public. The enhanced network is expected to fill existing data gaps and significantly improve forecast accuracy."
AWS and ARG data now not accessible to general public and farmers
These AWS ARG are only source of weather data for farmers. Why does IMD restrict it to access?
We don't think the National Institution like IMD needs to worry about private weather enthusiasts or be threatened by them. In fact all private meteorologists take data from IMD stations !
Met department must think twice on this decision.
Friday, June 06, 2025
6th June Evening
Outlook for Weekend 7th-9th
Mumbai: 2-3 Moderate showers daily. Day warm at 33c and stuffy warm at 25c. Expect around 30-45 mms cumulative rainfall in 3 days. Distributed in the parts of city.
Pune: Rainfall with some heavy falls...Moderate to heavy thunder Showers in various parts of city. Days better at 31/32c and nights at 22c. Cumulative rainfall for 3 days around 30-35 mms distributed in city.
Sambhajinagar: Some increase in rainfall from 7th to 9th. Sharp showers can help to start the sowing now, as fields are ready.
Mahabaleshwar: Cool foggy days with occasional rains. Cumulative rains could be around 50-70 mms.
Bharuch/Valsad: A thunder shower on Saturday, Lesser rains on Sunday/Monday.
मुंबई: दररोज २-३ मध्यम स्वरूपाचे सरी. दिवस ३३ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर आणि २५ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर उष्णतेची शक्यता.
शहराच्या काही भागात ३०-४५ मिमी पर्यंत ३ दिवसांत एकत्रित पाऊस पडण्याची शक्यता.
पुणे: काही ठिकाणी जोरदार पाऊस... शहराच्या विविध भागात मध्यम ते जोरदार मेघगर्जनेसह पाऊस पडेल.
दिवस ३१/३२ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर आणि रात्री २२ अंश सेल्सिअस तापमानावर चांगला राहतो. शहरात ३०-३५ मिमी पर्यंत ३ दिवस एकत्रित पाऊस पडेल.
संभाजीनगर: ७ ते ९ तारखेपर्यंत पावसात काही वाढ. शेत तयार असल्याने आता पेरणी सुरू करण्यास जोरदार सरी मदत करू शकतात.
Wednesday, June 04, 2025
🌩️✨ *Breaking News from the* *Skies*! ✨🌩️
We’re thrilled to share that *Vagaries of the Weather*©️
has been officially ranked:
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Tuesday, June 03, 2025
Sunday, June 01, 2025
May 2025 ....Excessive rains: Mar/Apr/May...Pre Monsoon season
As on 1st May showed :-16%
Heavy Record rainfall totals of May 2025
Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms (ATR)
Mumbai Scruz,:387 mms
Pune : 240 mms (ATR)
Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( Normal=67 mms)
Matheran : 551 mms (ATR)
Guhagarh: 707 mms
Mormugao : 700 mms
Panjim: 637 mms ( Normal=65 mms)
Dabolim : 680 mms
Mapusa: 693 mms
----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms--
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Kakkayam Dam, Kerala 1420
Bhagamandala, Karnataka 1270.1 mm
Talakaveri - 1676.8 mm
Kottigehara - 1141.2mm
Hulikal - 1006mm
Courtesy Pradeep John 👆
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Konkan Rainfall
Courtesy Abhijit Modak 👇👆Courtesy Abhijit Modak
Saturday, May 31, 2025
31st May:
Weather wise, an event full May for Maharashtra...specially for Mumbai and Pune.
1. 26th May, An earliest ever Monsoon setting date for Mumbai. The previous earliest was May to 29th in 1956, , .
However, this year, we announced a " temporary advance". Now, this has never been termed before anytime. Looking at the initial surge , due to the meandering Low pressure system ( AS 1) over Maharashtra, we coined this term " temporary " as we saw very heavy rainfalls in Mumbai and Interior Maharashtra (Pune Region).
(all records and figures in previous posts).
Showing a image of our 26th blog post :👇
Rainfall Total of May 2025 (with normal in Brackets)👇
Mumbai:
Mumbai Colaba: 503 mms ( 16mms). ...Record for May beating 218 mms in 1918.
Heaviest 27th 24 hrs fall of 162 mms on 27th May broke the previous May Record of 128 mms in 2000.
Mumbai Scruz: 378 mms ( 18 mms)....Scruz record of 388 mms in 2000 hold good !
Mumbai Avg. May month Average Max in 2025 is 33.5c...Day/Night Average 30.0c...Normal Average is 30.5c
------------------------------------------------------------
2. Pune:
One of the coolest May on record for Mumbai & Pune....With coldest May Day ever for Pune at 24.8c on 27th...
Pune: 240.2 mms ( 30 mms) Record for May beating 182 mm in 1933
Mahabaleshwar: 445 mms ( 67 mms)
Matheran : 551 mms
Guhagarh: 707 mms
Mormugao : 700 mms
Panjim: 637 mms ( 65 mms)
Dabolim : 680 mms
Mapusa: 693 mms
----Cherrapunji : 1437 mms---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And sure enough, the rains have drastically reduced after 29th.
The days got warmer..as the Monsoon current weakened..
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Well Done IITM..and Prof Mukhopadhyay and his team !
How India’s cutting-edge weather forecast system was built from a lab in Pune
------------------------------------------------------------------------
29th May:
The Depression, BB-2, has crossed into the West Bengal Coast. Will track N/NE.
Very heavy rains now will occur in Bangladesh and NE States.
The Axis will move Northwards, As a result>
30th May - 4th June:
Mumbai, Pune , Marathwada and Gujarat will see little rainfall. Few Passing showers for Mumbai.
Hotter days and nights.
Opportunity for completing any pending civil work and water proofing👇
----------------------
Current Winds as on 27th with Monsoon Axis:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025
The southwest monsoon made its earliest entry into India this year, hitting Kerala on 24th May and rapidly advancing (temporarily) to Mumbai by 26th May, its earliest arrival.
Cool Summer Days in Maharashtra ...27th May..Coldest May Day ever in Pune at 24.8°c
**Mumbai (CLB) 27th Morning 24 hrs rain: 161.9 mms
May total: 456.5 mms. (Departure from Normal: +446.7 mms)...Previous May Month record 280 mms in 1918.
**Mumbai (SCZ) 27th Morning 24 hrs Rain: 144.2 mms
May Total: 342.0 mms (Departure from Normal +329.6 mms)... Previous May Month record 388 mms in 2000.
**Pune may total as yet on 27th:218 mms... Previous may record 182 mms in 1933
Monday, May 26, 2025
MONSOON ENTERS INTO MUMBAI AND PUNE AS A "TEMPORARY" CURRENT.
WE TERM "TEMPORARY" AS EVEN AS RAINFALL IS HEAVY, IT IS NOT STABILISED AS PER CRITERIAS. HENCE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SCALING DOWN IN RAIN INTENESITY FROM 29TH MAY, FOR A WEEK/10 DAYS.
Wettest May ever: Colaba 280 mms ( 1918) , Sanatcruz: 388 mms (2000)
Weather Knowledge Site updated with No.58
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Much Awaited Monsoon Analysis to Date from ..None Other than Our GSB..on "Stats and Analysis" Page..Just Recieved On Saturday ...
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Short Narration: Monday 1st/Tuesday 2nd : The heaviest rains are in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka and No...