Sunday, June 30, 2024

Friday, June 28, 2024

 28th June 

MMR rainfall as 28th morning

Average 27th/28th cumulative about 100 mms..( we estimated 140 - 170 for 3 days on our blog)





Thursday, June 27, 2024

27th Morning

Rains in cms in Ghats and Mumbai Lakes

Ghat: Tamini-9, Dungarwadi-7, Dawadi,Bhira,Ambone -6 each , Shirgaon-5 , Koyana (N)-4, Wangaon,Dharavi, Lonavala(T)-3 each , lonavala(O),Walvan ,Thakuwadi,Koyna(P) ,Shirota- 2 each , Shirota,Khopoli,Khan -1 each 

Lake : : Tansa-5,Tulsi-4 ,Mid Vaitarna,Vihar,Bhatsa-3 each ,Vaitarna-2,Upp Vaitarna-1 

Karnataka Rains in cms👇



The rains in Mumbai have kept the commitment...to start with 👌( as per last posting): (Hope at least to achieve 3 days cumulative rainfall targeted) 

Indications are that current spell of rains can extend upto 30th June.

24 hrs Rains as on 27th morning

IMD Colaba 47 mms

Memonwada & Nariman Pt 39mms

Aarey 37 mms

Malabar Hill 34 mms

Colaba &Dadar 32 Mms

Bandra 29 mm

Vagaries 28 mms, Versova 28 mms.

Worli & Powai 26 mms

IMD Scruz 14 mms

Monday, June 24, 2024

Mumbai Special: What to expect in the remaining days of June?

24th June data 👇:

Colaba: Though it seems less, Colaba has received 80% of the normal rainfall as on date. ....328 mms received. 

Now, this is 64% of the total June normal.

Santacruz: Suburbs have received 52 % of the normal rains as on date. ...200 mms. Definitely less. 

This is only 38% of the expected total on  June 30th.

There are 6 days to reach the normal June figures of 526 mms ( Scruz) and 506 mms ( Colaba).

Is it possible?

Mumbai will see an increase in rainfall from 26th to 28th.

How much ?

26th-28th will probably get approximately 140 - 170 mms cumulative rainfall. 

That would still keep Mumbai rainfall in  month end deficit for June of around -10%.

Lakes:

The Mumbai lakes are largely deficit at 5.3% of the storage on 22nd June.

Expectations are that till June end it would average another 150 - 200 mms in the catchment.

Hopefully it should increase the storage by another 10%.

If it happens so ( another 10% additional storage), city supply could be good till 10th August. 


Sunday, June 23, 2024

 23rd June

After a record 39 days (14may-21june), delhi safdarjung recorded below 40c temperature

Data From Vag. Vineet☝

----------------------------------------



Big cloud patch over the Arabian Sea has given rise to a UAC at 500 hPa over the Sea. 


This is likely preventing the onset of strong westerly winds over the west coast and Ghats, delaying the predicted heavy rains.

Doppler weather radars of Goa, Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram do not show strong westerly winds over the coast yet.

This scenario was not forecasted by any of the leading weather models. 

Vagaries will continue to provide regular updates on this.

From Vag Shreyas

Saturday, June 22, 2024

 22nd June

#Raigad district rainfall ending 8:30am in mm:


#Karanjwadi: 156

#Wava: 145

#Sanderi: 140

#Tala: 124

#Kolad: 122

#SudhagadPali: 116

#Mhasala: 110

#Pabhare: 105

#Nate:103

#Kalote: 97

#Roha: 94

#Poladpur: 78

#Mahad: 69

#Panvel: 59

#Mangaon: 56

#Karjat: 42

#Ratnagiri district massive rainfall figures ending 8:30am in mm:


#Mandangad: 205

#Makhjan: 202

#Palgad: 190

#Kadwai: 174

#Chiplun & #Wakawali: 150

#Savarde: 148

#Rampur: 128

#Kalkavane: 121

#Dabhil: 119

#Kherdi:117

#Khed: 93

#Devrukh: 78

#Cherrapunji seasonal total till now (From 1st June - 22nd June 2024) stands at 2542mm ( 102 ")!


Last year till same date (22nd June 2023) seasonal total was 2021mm


Friday, June 21, 2024

21st June 

Mumbai water situation is precarious no doubt.

City lakes have just 77132 million litres in stock on 20th....maybe enough for 30 days with cut in force.  Reserve stocks have been dipped into. State reserve stock from the Upper Vaitarna & Bhatsa dams have been drawn into.

Comparison with last 10 years on date

Graph details courtesy MidDay 
Do we see rain coming ?
We may see an increase this weekend, in coastal areas (Mumbai).
There will be a temporary increase in the lake areas also, maybe getting 50/80 mms per day on Saturday and Sunday.
This will not be much of a meaningful relief in storage levels.

The Bay branch Monsoon revival and the Easterlies in the Northern Plains hold the key to the Monsoon Axis.
The resulting strengthening of the offshore west coast trough is being monitored.

Depending on this, We hope, for a proper revival of monsoon after 28th..."fingers crossed"

Mumbai Special 

A recovery " of sorts," in the Mumbai rains 

By 20th morning, Mumbai suburbs received unexpected heavy rains...like 👇

Some readings in mm below ending 8:30am 20th:

Palghar: 83

Naigaon: 56

Bhayandar: 84

MiraRoad: 99

Dahisar: 141

Borivali: 171

Kandivali: 126

Malvani: 133

While in Santacruz received 18mms, Vagaries ( Mahalaxmi) 26 mms, Colaba 29 mms.


But , there was definitely relief from the persistent hot weather 👇

Now, baring an unusually heavy spell, Mumbai may get average 25- 50 mms / day..( occasional showers).
Rain intensity projected to increase more  from Wednesday 26th June.

Lake levels precariously low at 5.3% only. Not receiving much rains...but hopefully after 26th.


Wednesday, June 19, 2024

 19th Night

Hottest Weather in North India Persisting relentlessly....



New Delhi witnessed on 19th morning, the worst Night temperature ( minimum) as Safdarjung recorded a low of 35.2°c

Incidentally it's beats the previous hottest Night record of 34.7°c.


Delhi is witnessing one of its hottest summer in many years...a display of temperatures this June👇

Reason for Heatwave..Westerlies 


Heat Abating In 2 days from 21st..👇

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Weather outlook for this week - 
Monsoon is likely to enter active phase gradually after 22nd:

Mumbai: No major change from the present weather. Some increased clouding with more frequent passing showers/thundershowers is possible tomorrow 19th June. 
However, the typical continuous heavy monsoon rains are still missing and could begin after 23rd June. 

Mumbai lakes' combined water storage is concerning with just 5.3% stock left as of 16th June!
It was 8.8% in 2023 and 12.3% in 2022 on the same day.


Pune: No major change in the weather is expected for the next 3 days. Localized afternoon/evening showers are possible as westerly winds are not strong.

With westerly winds not strong across the lower 3-4 km of the atmosphere, we do not expect sustained moderate-heavy rainfall over Ghats and catchment areas of north Maharashtra for the next 5-6 days.
  • The offshore trough along the west coast is likely to form and rainfall will likely increase along Goa and south Konkan by 23rd June.
  • Ghats will also see an increase in rains (helpful for filling up of lakes and dams). 

•Monsoon revival for north Konkan seems from/after 24th June...more updates towards the weekend.

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Light-moderate showers can continue for the next 3-4 days, mainly during the afternoon/evening. Rain will not be uniformly distributed. 
  • On and off showers to continue along Kerala coast this week. 
  • Monsoon revival is likely from around 20th/21st June with Kerala and coastal/Ghats of Karnataka seeing a substantial increase in rains. 

Monday, June 17, 2024

17th June Evening 

Gujarat:

Heavy pre monsoon showers lashed parts of Saurashtra on 16th ...in cms 

Technically Monsoon has advanced into South Gujarat coast...we see occasional showers continuing in Valsad abd Surat regions.

As Monsoon advances into Gujarat region and Coastal Saurashtra on 22nd/23rd, Substantial increase in rainfall in South Gujarat coast from 22nd..( Valsad /Surat).

Bharuch: Max today 38.5°...minimum 29.5°.

Rains likely to increase from 22nd. as Monsoon advances. 

Surat: Max 35.7°...Minimum 30.0

Valsad : Max 36.2°...Min 22.4°

Rainfall expected to increase from 22nd.


17th Afternoon Post:

Extremely heavy rain is expected over Northeastern states over next few days.

Cherrapunji has received 1924 mms in June till date.

Floods expected in the Brahmaputra river basin.

Sikkim and Darjeeling to also get very heavy rains. 

From Vag Dr.Vineet Singh 👇

 An unusually long stretch of heatwave in west UP, Delhi NCR

Generally heatwaves are seperated by strong squalls every summers, and a single heatwave spell does not last more than 6-7 days, but this summer has been exceptional for delhi ncr west UP

High chances the average maximum temperature of delhi this june will break all june records, ~30 days in a row now with delhi maxiumum temperature >40c, this is very rare, and is due to lack of strong WDs, squalls

 One theory which I challenge every season and is highly doubtful and need to be reconsidered:

The role of seasonal low over North India in monsoon advancement

Many times below normal heat in may june but monsoon advances north quickly

While other times lots of heat like this summer, but monsoon ka ata pta nahi

This shows that rather than seasonal low, there is MJO, biso which plays a more important role in the northward advancement of monsoon


Saturday, June 15, 2024

 15th Night Post



North India Is enduring a heatwave with temperatures soaring above45° c.

 Can expect some relief soon.

Today we see  " no monsoon trough" scenario.



 A change starting June 19th, with the trough getting into formation stage from 18th, the arrival of the monsoon expected by June 20th or 21st.

 15th Morning 

Today we see  " no monsoon trough" scenario.
But expected to form by 19th..

Mumbai :Monsoon to remain weak along Mumbai/Thane and konkan coast for next 4-5 days...and gradually strengthen after 20th June. Only passing showers/localized thundershowers likely with sunny periods in the day. Hot and humid weather. 

Not helpful for water stock in the lakes.


Total rain this season 

Colaba:198 mms

WSC Vagaries: 188 mms

Santacruz: 128 mms 

Gradually strengthen from 19th

Last week of June and early July can see heavy rain.

Pune: Due to weak westerly winds of monsoon, afternoon/evening showers/thundershowers likely for next 3 days in parts of the city and district. Localized moderate/heavy showers likely and rainfall will not be uniformly distributed.

Interior Maharashtra: Chance of moderate rain/thundershowers in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha region. Districts such as Pune, Ahilyanagar, Nashik, Satara, Sangli, Solapur, Jalgaon, Ch. Sambhajinagar, Jalna, Buldhana, Beed, Dharashiv, Nanded, Akola. Amravati, Nagpur can receive light to moderate rain. Few pockets can receive moderate-heavy showers, but not well distributed.


Thursday, June 13, 2024

13th June Morning 

Mumbai:

June summery: The average daily maximum temperature was 34c. At night it cooled down to temperatures between 27°C and 29°C. 4 days of rain.

Monsoon reaches Mumbai..and weakens !

Not much of meaningful rains expected this weekend 14th - 17th June. Passing showers or localised rains in parts of Mumbai. Unlike a full fledged Monsoon onslaught. 

Sunny periods will add to the discomfort with high humidity prevailing and stuffiness at night.

The absence of a strong off shore Monsoon trough ( Along Maharashtra Coast) and weak South West winds are the main cause for this " lull"

Expected recovery maybe by middle of next week, after 18th June.. 


Tuesday, June 11, 2024

 11th June Afternoon 

As per our calculated assumptions, the Monsoon advanced into Mumbai region on 11th...( with heavy thundershowers on 10th night).

The Monsoon has made a formal entry into Mumbai/Pune. 

Mumbai:

Monsoon will now be in "moderately easy" mode, this week. 

Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers or a thundershower. 

Days may be lower at 32°, but may feel like 35°. Very humid conditions. 

Pune: Partly cloudy and light to moderate rains in parts of city. Even with temperatures around 31°, the "rea feel" will be 35°

The soil moisture, in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada, initially has sunk in upto 6 inches in the fields, perfect for sowing operation. Lesser rains in interior Maharashtra farmland for next 5/6 days should be ok for crops..


मध्य महाराष्ट्र आणि मराठवाड्यातील जमिनीतील ओलावा सुरुवातीला 6 इंचांपर्यंत जमिनीत बुडाला आहे, पेरणीसाठी योग्य आहे. पुढील ५/६ दिवसांत महाराष्ट्रातील शेतजमिनीमध्ये कमी पाऊस पडल्यास काळजी करू नये.

Now, from 11th to 18th, the Monsoon winds are seen weakening  for Maharashtra, due to shifted Shear Zone, lack of off shore trough support, Anti Cyclone in interior...at 700 levels.



.


Monday, June 10, 2024

10th June ..Morning



Although it is large scale monsoon moisture effect, the upper wind pattern remains northerly over Mumbai due to UAC over South interior Maharashtra...so Mumbai SWM onset declaration by Vagaries is not done.

We expect , at least the surface and 850  winds to  gain as westerlies over Mumbai region around 11th. Monsoon could be advanced on 11th

Initially, after 11th, Monsoon rains will be moderate (not strong) over Mumbai...for a week.

Sunday, June 09, 2024

Posted on Sunday 9th June

Top 5 rainfall amounts in Mumbai (BMC) 

*at 11.55pm*




*N.M.Joshi Marg Mun. School *Lower parel : 132 mm*

Britania storm water pumping *Darukhana :128 mm*

SWD Workshop *Dadar West: 120 mm*

F South Ward Office *Dadar East: 117 mm*

Tagore Nagar *Vikhroli :109 mm*

Mumbai

Monsoon now advancing towards Mumbai:

Received pre monsoon showers on Saturday night. This is due to the UAC stationed at S.Konkan and brought in moisture. UAC expected to move away, and result in NW winds, which can stall the Monsoon by another 24 hrs over Mumbai.

Metropolitan Region got good thundershowers overnight! Below are some readings ending 8:30am : BorivaliWest (Vag Nilay Reading): 59 DahisarWest: 58 Aarey: 54 JogeshwariEast: 45 Magathane: 43 Powai: 34 Andheri: 33 MulundWest: 32

Pune  lashed by heavy rains:

Pune Shivajinagar: 117.1mm in last 24hrs

This is the highest 24hrs rain in June after 1991. Highest ever in June is 132 mms in 1961

Pune got 64% of normal June rain in just 1 day.

Pune June total now 209.2mm and already exceeded the total June normal rain quota (184mm).

Pune rainfall readings of 24 hrs ending 8:30am in mm:

1.Shivajinagar IMD: 117, 2.SadashivPeth: 113

3.Kothrud: 106, 4.SinhagadRoad: 96

5.Bibwewadi (Vag Abhishek Reading) & Pashan: 81

6.NDA: 72, 7.Kharadi: 50, 8.Magarpatta: 43

Monsoon advances further into S Konkan region! 👇




Monsoon into South Konkan & Goa...👇

Resulting rainfall readings below ending 8:30am today in mm:

1. Mulde  207 , 1(a). Kudal: 197

2. Amboli: 179, 3. Masure: 169

4. Sawantwadi: 165, 5. Pinguli: 149

6. Vetore: 147, 7. Vengurla: 143

8. Devgad: 136, 9. Walaval: 120

10. Kasal: 112, 11. Ratnagiri 107

Ratnagiri district rainfall figures ending 8:30am in mm:

1.Pawas: 149, 2.Aabloli: 137

3.Nate: 123, 4.Ratnagiri: 107

Raigad district rainfall figures ending 8:30am in mm:

1.Alibag: 109, 2.Poladpur: 104

3.Mahad: 103, 4.Kihim:73, 5.Pen:60

Data Credits: Agri Dept: Compiled by Vag. Abishek Apte

More Rains from  Maharashtra in mms

Satara 61

Mahabaleshwar 41, Matheran 32, 

Ahmednagar 20, Sangli 19

Kolhapur 17, Solapur 12







  Rains lash Pune

Pune Shivajinagar: 117.1mm in last 24hrs ended Sunday Morning 

This is the highest 24hrs rain in June after 1991.

Pune got 64% of normal June rain in just 1 day.

Pune june total now 209.2mm and already exceeded the total june normal rain quota (184mm)

Info by Vag Vineet


Saturday, June 08, 2024

Posted on Saturday 8th June Afternoon.

Moist 700 mb trough (east -west)to propagate north with cyclonic circulations seen developing on the poleward edge of monsoon current. Monsoon to strengthen in South Maharastra in the next 48 hrs. 


Chart by Shreyas

Chart by Gokul


Widespread heavy rains expected over western Maharashtra.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai: Mumbai Region got a repeat of Pre Monsoon Showers on Saturday Morning.

Rainfall in Mumbai expected to increase from Saturday Night. Sunday will see showers increasing with good rains on Monday /Tuesday as the Monsoon sets in properly. (40-60 mms/Day expected).

Day temperatures to ease by 2/3c.

This is a moderate beginning of the Monsoon..NO ALERT.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Meanwhile....Monsoon advances into Coastal Karnataka, Interior Karnataka with super heavy rains !

Resulting Rainfall today👇

UTTARAKANNADA District

-----------------------------------

KUMTA - 360.7 mm

HANEHALLI (KUMTA) - 252.5 mm

HALDIPUR (HONNAVAR ) - 248.5 mm

HEGDE (KUMTA)- 243 mm

KADATOKA (HONNAVAR) - 238.5 mm

BOBRAWADA (ANKOLA) - 237.5 mm

KARKI (HONNAVAR) - 234.5 mm

KALBHAG (KUMTA) - 233 mm

DEVAGIRI (KUMTA) - 225.5 mm

BELAMBAR (ANKOLA) - 222 mm

AGRAGONA (ANKOLA) - 218 mm

VANDIGE (ANKOLA) -217 mm

TORKE (KUMTA) - 215 mm

SAGADAGERI (ANKOLA ) - 204.5 mm

GOKARNA (KUMTA) - 202 mm

ANKOLA - 200 mm

BLALE (ANKOLA) - 195.5 mm

SHETAGERI (ANKOLA) - 190 mm

HOSAKULI (HONNAVAR ) - 186.5 mm

HIREGUTTI (KUMTA) - 186 mm

CHANDAVAR (HONNAVAR ) - 183 mm

MAJALI (KARWAR) - 181 mm

KADLE (HONNAVAR) - 179.5 mm

DEEVGI (KUMTA) - 177.5 mm

ALAGERI (ANKOLA) - 171 mm

SALKOD (HONNAVAR ) - 166.5 mm

BHAVIKERI (ANKOLA) - 159 mm

MUGWA (HONNAVAR ) -  153.5 mm

KADAWADA (KARWAR) - 152 mm

MOGATA (ANKOLA) - 150 mm



UDUPI DISTRICT

--------------------

PADUVARI (KUNDAPUR) 155.5 mm

KERGALU (KUNDAPUR) 130.5 mm

GOLIHOLE (KUNDAPUR) 110 mm

SHIRUR (KUNDAPUR) 105 mm

KALTHODU (KUNDAPUR) 104 mm

UPPUNDA (KUNDAPUR) 93.5 mm

KAMBADKONE (KUNDAPUR) 89 mm

HAKLADI (KUNDAPUR) 85.5 mm

BIJUR (KUNDAPUR) 83.5 mm

MARAVANTHE (KUNDAPUR) 81.5 mm

HEMMADI (KUNDAPUR) 81 mm

CHITTURU (KUNDAPUR) 78.5 mm

KIRIMANJESHAWARA (KUNDAPUR) 77.5 mm

VADDARSE (UDUPI) 76 mm

GANGOLLI (KUNDAPUR) 75 mm

AJRI (KUNDAPUR) 74 mm

MOLAHALLI (KUNDAPUR) 73 mm

INNA (KARKALA) 72.5 mm


AGUMBE - 42 mm

Compiled by Naveen Reddy

Data Credits: KSNDMC

Wednesday, June 05, 2024

5th June Post

Mumbai:
Several parts of Mumbai got Pre Monsoon Showers on Wednesday..👇



Pre Monsoon Thunder showers expected till the Monsoon sets in around 11th June.
Rain frequency increasing after 10th/11th. Monday/Tuesday.

Pune: Late afternoon Thundershowers. Some showers will be heavy, specially on the weekend.

Monsoon Watch---

Typical Monsoon Advance Signature ( Over Kerala) seen in today Morning's Satellite Image


T.N. Rainfall today:
Nedungal,, Krishnagiri 125mm
Adirampatnam, Tanjore 74mm

Chennai north suburbs
Redhills 63mm
Ponneri 56mm
Chennai City 22.3 mm
Chennai AP 20.6 mm
 (Chennai got westerlies rain...west to east moving)

South-West Monsoon shows proper advance into Kerala & T.N...Limit given in Image👇
Kerala Rains:

Strengthening low level monsoon circulation with embedded UAC in 700 mb, Monsoon trough expected to evolve in the next 3-4 days and thereby bringing in monsoon upto Konkan.

Continuing with our estimate, Monsoon to reach parts of Western Maharashtra & Konkan (including Mumbai and Pune) between 10 and 12th June 2024.

True to our estimate Monsoon expected to move into Coastal Karnataka, S.I. Karnataka and Goa in the next 24/48 hrs ( by 7th June).

Goa: Regular thundershowers, increasing frequency from 7th. Can see around 50-70 mms/day on 7th/8th.


Tuesday, June 04, 2024

Mumbai:

Mumbai Santa Cruz saw, a record 18 Nights ( 18th May - 4th June ) of Minimum temperatures of 29c or more. A record streak as per Vagaries. It peaked on 3rd June , when the "Low" touched 30c.
Santa CRUZ all time record "Highest Minimum '' for June is 30.2*c on 10-06-2007. 2nd highest for June was 30.2c on 11-06-2014. 
*All time any month Highest minimum also 30.2c as on 31-05-2015 (May)the reading was same at 30.2c
Colaba Highest Minimum Record for June is also 30.2c on 10-06-2016



Monday, June 03, 2024

Bengaluru region was lashed by heavy thunderstorms yesterday. Vagaries had mentioned this in our earlier outlook on 31st May. 

Bengaluru city 111 mm ending 8:30 am today - this is the all time June record for 24 hrs rainfall, breaking the previous record of 101.6 mm on 16th June 1891!

Seasonal total for Bengaluru this year (till today) is 141 mm. 
June record highest is 228 mm in 1996.

We expect some thundershowers to continue for another 2-3 days in Bengaluru-Mysuru regions.

Mumbai region - Some moderate showers reported in Panvel, Kharghar and near Kalyan regions. 
Panvel got good rains of 24 mm.




 2nd June...

We want to change the Tune...Enough of "Heat" News😠!


Weather Forecast: UK to Face Unseasonal Cold Wave and Snowfall Prior to Summer’s Return

The U.K. situation is set to change dramatically with the arrival of a cold front.

Weather maps predict that Glasgow will experience snowfall on June 4, which is unusual for this time of year. Other areas are expected to experience rain showers.

This wintry weather will persist for two days

By Arezki AMIRI (EC Nostrum)

Sunday, June 02, 2024

2nd June Night:

Monsoon Watch - 


The surface winds need another 24 hrs to establish:


The lower level Monsoon winds are taking a long time to set in over the Kerala region. 


The uppermost Jet Stream is properly established.


This being the precursor, we expect proper Monsoon setting in over Kerala by 4th June. Gradually strengthening from 6th.

South Karnataka Monsoon set by 6/7th June

Mumbai:

With a record streak of unrelenting high temperatures and humidity, the city awaits some relief.

Pre Monsoon thundershowers in late afternoon expected from 4th June. Not to be mistaken for Monsoon though.

Monsoon should set in by 11th June.

Pune: 

Pre Monsoon late afternoon thundershowers expected from 4th June. Monsoon should set in by 11th June.

Goa: Expect pre monsoon showers from 3rd June.. Fairly good, around 15-20 mms /day. Frequency increasing daily. Monsoon should set in by around 8th/9th June.

Sambhajinagar (Aurangabad): Pre Monsoon thundershowers expected from 4th June. Not to be mistaken for Monsoon.

Sowing should be not started before 14th June.as the seeds may not germinate with scattered pre monsoon rains.

Gujarat: Hot and Dry. No rains expected till 11th at least.

Bharuch Max on 2-06-2024: 38.2c

Min: 28.4c

Expect around 40c next week,

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