Friday, July 31, 2020

Maharashtra's Top 12 Stations Seasonal Rainfall with Ghat sections, Mumbai MMR & lakes seasonal maps

Amboli is 1st station to achieve 4K mark from Maha ghat!

Maharashtra Rainfall Toppers from 01-06-2020 to ending till 8.30 am on 31-07-2020
in mms

1. Amboli, Sawantwadi - 4126 (*data till 22 Jul)
2. Malvan, Sindhudurg - 3467
3. Patgaon, Bhudargad - 3346
4. Dajipur, Radhanagari - 3181
5. Gaganbawada, Kolhapur - 2957
6. Tamhini, Pune - 2870
7. Sawantwadi, Sindhudurg - 2785
8. Patharpunj, Patan - 2647
9. Kumbhi Dam, Gaganbawda - 2610
10. Kitwade, Ajara - 2592 (*data till 22 Jul)
11. Rajapur, Ratnagiri - 2555
12. Walwan, Mahabaleshwar - 2539

Top 12 list Compilation by Abhijit

Maharashtra's Western Ghat Seasonal Rainfall Map below

Mumbai MMR seasonal Rainfall map below

Mumbai's MMR region water supplying lakes area seasonal rainfall with live water storage map below

All above three maps made by Tejas & it's data compiled by Abhijit with Lakes input courtesy Richa Pinto TOI
Posted Friday 31st July:
  • With the month ending, Mumbai total for the season stands at 1898 mms at Scruz and 1754 mm s at Colaba.
In comparison lakes total are much less than City:
Vaitarna (U) 822mms, Modak Sagar 800 mms, Tansa 752 mms, Vaitarna (M) 1031 ms, Bhatsa 1082 mms,Vihar 1547 mms, Tulsi 1924 mms.

  • 34.49%
    Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 82% same time last year. 499199 million litres - Live storage as at 6 am 31 Jul 2020. [Annual requirement: 1,447,363 million litres, Total capacity: 1,778,000 million litres].
  • 130
    Number of days of supply left in all lakes combined (@ 3,800 million litres BMC supplies to city each day).
  • Last Modified: 31-Jul-2020 5:49 AM

Mumbai: substantial increase in rainfall from Sunday 2nd August. A wet spell is expected Sunday 2nd thru Wednesday 5th August.
However, the lakes may still remain deficient as the rains there will be less.
Initially heavy rains restricted to Coastal Belt in Konkan till Tuesday. Then moving to Nasik/Pune Regions.
Pune: expecting few showers in parts of city this weekend. But increase to meaningful rains (Heavy showers) on Monday and Tuesday.

Jabalpur: Will see some increase in rainfall from Monday 3rd for a few days. North M.P. will see good rains this period.
We may see rainfall pattern increasing for East M.P. regions after the 4th of August, when a Low forms in the Head Bay and tracks West into Odisha.
A proper low should form in the Bay around Mid August , finally, to bring good rainfall into Central India and the regions around.

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Meteorological Explanation of  July Weather Systems Absence in Bay this year...( for vagaries By Jivan Prakash ji Ex Scientist IITM)

Some facts regarding July 2020 rainfall 
(1)  Low Pressure Systems (LPS)  over India. 
July 2020 is typical month in the history that not a single Low Pressure System (LPS) formed. 
Study by Mooley (1990) showed that all India rainfall(air) and over central India (CI)  are correlated with number of LPS. The correlation coeff. (cc)  increases with number of LPS days (.6 for the period 1888-1983) and further increases to 0.7 for total westward longitudinal displacement.

LPS days means the number of days a Low Pressure System is present in any part of India. 
The lowest number of LPS days 3 occurred in the July 1903 .
In this way July 2020 has   record number of low LPS days i.e.0 till today. 
Mean number of LPS days in July is 13.9.( Maximum Number of LPS days occured in Central India. From 1888-1983 , there were 884 LPS days.

Although there is no off shore trough on West coast,I think there must be sufficient off shore cyclonic vorticity arising from across the flow shear of monsoon westerly. In the expression of vorticity in natural coordinate, we know there are two terms, shear vorticity and curvature vorticity. Generally curvature vorticity is attributed for the vorticity associated with off shore trough. I think we n the present situation, shear vorticity term is very much strong and curvature vorticity term is dormant.

July 2020 Rainfall features 
We all know that Low Pressure System (LPS) over BoB form at the eastern end of Monsoon trough in its normal orientation. Monsoon trough being the locus of all points with maximum cyclonic vorticity, fulfills the criteria for Barotropic instability. Thus genesis of cyclonic vortex over Head BoB during southwest monsoon season is attributed to the barotropic instability. Non formation of LPS during this July 2020 may be due to absence or inadequate barotropic instability. 
Of course it is my own hypothesis only, which needs to be negated or verified by comparing meridional shear of mean zonal wind, with climatological normal. Of course during July on most of the days, eastern end of Monsoon trough was not over head BoB, rather to the north. This synoptic feature itself demonstrate the inadequacy of Barotropic instability over head BoB.

July 2020 Rainfall features 
a)  no Low Pressure system
b)  wetest Mumbai July
c)  above normal rainfall over rain shadow subdivisions viz. Marathwada,  North interior Karnstaks (NIK) , Telangana, Rayalaseema,   etc. 
d)  below normal rainfall over central India
Absence of LPS
1)  Absence of remnants from west equatorial Pacific,  as cyclonic activity over Pacific was subdued. 
2)  subdued activity of off shore trough over west coast of India.  Xang (2013) showed that diabatic heating in the west coast trough excites stationary Rossby wave with ridge over Peninsular India and trough over BoB giving cyclonic vorticity for formation of LPS
3) not dipping east end of monsoon trough but situated over head BoB. 
Above points showed that no cyclonic vorticity prevailed over head BoB for formation of LPS.

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Mumbai sees Wettest July 2020 ever !

It is official now Mumbai Santacruz IMD records wettest July 2020 ever since the observatory was started i.e since 1944! It breaks the all time monthly record of July by recording 1474.4 mms rainfall till 8.30pm today. Previous July 2014 ATR was 1468.7 mms is broken!

So in 76 years for the first time we seeing this magical figure!

All Time Record of 2020 July from Mumbai Scz is given below in the descending order of previous years wettest record !

1. 1474.4 .. 2020 till today
2. 1468.7.. 2014
3. 1465 .. 2019
4. 1454.5 .. 2005

After Malvan, it is Mumbai on 2nd place which has seen highest rainfall till date for July in terms of current year in entire Konkan belt of Maharashtra..

Also Santacruz July 2020 Rainfall till date is on 1474 mms which is higher than many Ghat stations like say Mahabaleshwar, Matheran, Lonavla, Lavasa, Igatpuri & more.

So for a change this July, King comes near the sea from ghat section

Posted Tuesday 28th Afternoon:

Weather for Marathwada Farmers:

On Tuesday and Wednesday, 28th/29th, Aurangabad District will get frequent showers in many areas. The rains may last till Thursday. Upto 10-15 millimetres per day. Slight decrease after Thursday. Be careful of water accumulation in fields.

Mumbai: Tuesday 28th will get frequent showers showing decrease by evening. Cloud height shows thunder possible in showers. 
Wednesday 29th will see intermittent heavy rains in different parts of city..still we can estimate 40-50 mms per day on these 2 days.
slight decrease in trend (Temporary) from Thursday , as first week of Augaust shows good rains.

Mumbai Lakes still devoid of good rains..and may not get much this month of July.
Last Modified: 28-Jul-2020 5:51 AM
  • 31.81%
    Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 69.62% same time last year. 460,345 million litres - Live storage as at 6 am 27 Jul 2020. [Annual requirement: 1,447,363 million litres, Total capacity: 1,778,000 million litres].

Pune , Tuesday/Wednesday showers in different parts of city. 

Goa: Moderate intermittent showers expected in Goa till 30th July. A few heavy showers with thunder. Increase from Net weekend

However, Monsoon Axis hovers close to the Himalayan Foothills, and may move South in 2 days. Hopes of good rainfall to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan from 29th till 31st.
Delhi sees rains on 29th/30th.

Monday, July 27, 2020

For Mumbai; Vagaries estimated rains on Sunday (in the previous post).. Heavy showers with thunder on Sunday night accumulated 101 mms at the Scruz station and 60 mms at Colaba till Monday morning.
Later in the day on Monday 27 th, On-off showers measured 54 mms at Colaba and 17 mms at scruz in 12 hrs. 

Outlook for Mah and Mumbai tomorrow

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Visit Weather Knowledge Page (12)..

Time Lapse Video of Altocumulus with Virga

Friday, July 24, 2020

Interior Maharashtra Rainfall Update for 24-7-2020

Widespread Rainfall with Thunderstorm activity across the state was witnessed under influence of UAC over interior Maharashtra.

Below is rainfall ending 8.30am today (min 50mm) :

Nagar district:

Parner 87
Pathardi 79
Shevgaon 76
Akole 75
Sangamner 74
Nagar city 68
Chinchodi patil 66
Rahuri 63
Nighoj 60
Rahta 59
Shrigonda 58
Kopargaon 55
Savali vihir 53
Kashti 50

Dhule district:

Sindkheda 164
Gidhade 113

Nashik district:

Nandur Madhyameshwar 118
Wavi 105
Shaha 97
Nandgaon 86
Dubere 85
Nandur Shingote 77
Lasalgaon 70
Deogaon Mukhed 69
Igatpuri 65
Ozarkhed 53

Pune district:

Khamgaon 115
Shirur 95

Aurangabad district

Kannad 85
Sambhajinagar 74
Sillod 68
Paithan 57

Beed district

Dharur 87
Asthi 76
Kaij 63
Georai 60
Shirur Kasar 56

Jalna district

Partur 65

Vidarbha region:

Karanja (Wardha) 94
Amravati 78
Nagpur 68
Ashti (Wardha) 54

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Posted 23rd July Afternoon:

Farmer's weather for Marathwada: Good and heavy showers in Aurangabad District on 23rd Thursday and 24th Friday.Around 10-20 millimeters per day spread out in the region. May cause water accumulation in fields... Rains becoming less from Sunday. Partly sunny weather expected from Sunday and decrease in rains.

Weak Surface Low and UAC forms over off Kerala Coast.
Spotty showers in Mumbai on Wednesday night.  with Scruz IMD recording 49 mms and Colaba IMD recording 0.4 mms.
Mumbai Water Supplying Lakes:

438,584 million litres
Live storage as on last date of update. At 30.3% of combined live storage across all lakes compared to 56.64% same time last year. Annual requirement: 1,447,363 million litres, Total capacity: 1,778,000 million litres].

Mumbai will see partly cloudy weather on Friday and Saturday 24th/25th, with few showers varying between 10-25 millimetres. Slightly more rain showers with thunder on Sunday 26th.

Pune: After some good showers on Thursday 23rd, Pune may see spotty showers upto 5 millimetres per day on Friday/Saturday and Sunday.

Goa: Moderate showers of heavy intensity at times..intermittent..around 20-35 mms/day till Sunday 

Delhi: Warmer weekend for Delhi as rains decrease.
Surat: Moderate showers on 23rd and 24th..varying from 10-30 mms.
Valsad will get moderate showers on Friday and Saturday.
Showers expected in Saurashtra 25th/26th..concentrating on West and Coast.

Monday, July 20, 2020

Posted Monday 20th Afternoon:

Farmers Weather for Marathwada:

From 21st July to 24th July, Aurangabad District will get cloudy weather with some showers . Rain per day expected around 10-20 millimetres in some parts of region. Soil moisture will nor reduce and will be at good level till this week.

An UAC over the SE Arabian Sea existing now would descend and create a Low Pressure in the SE Arabian Sea in 48 hrs.

The Low pressure would form (AS-4) and track off the Karnatak Coast and then may not strengthen later.

Due to Northward position of Monsoon Axis, Very heavy rains are expected for next 2 days in Punjab, Haryana  and Delhi. Rains decrease thereafter.

Very little meaningful rains for Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra ( Pune & Nasik) till 24th of July.

Mumbai: 20th/21st/22nd/23rd July: Partly sunny and a few showers in parts of city. Marked decrease in rain frequency.

Weather Knowledge Page -(11) Updated

Friday, July 17, 2020

How Ghats are struggling and only Coastal Konkan are getting more heavy spells will be shown in below comparison

Let's do only July month Rainfall comparison till date 17-07-2020 to show how Ghats ( Mountain Ranges along the coast) are performing poorly this season! 

Maharashtra's Ghat ( Mountain Ranges along the coast) stations vs State capital Mumbai's Rainfall for July till Date

Note: We have not taken South Kokan coastal station as many stations only July month Rainfall is either ahead of Mumbai or is around of it. But considering just topper station Malvan from Sindhudurg which has recorded whopping 1575 mms rainfall in just 17 days of July which is highest in whole Kokan plains & also in Ghats of the state except of Amboli !

So now we will compare North Konkan's Mumbai July Rainfall vs Rest Ghats of the State 

Santacruz July 2020 Rainfall as on 17 July stands on 1179 mms which is higher than many Ghat stations!

Now lets see Maharashtra Ghats July Rainfall in mm below till 17-07-2020

Gaganbavda 1086 
Patharpunj 1083 
Kumbhi dam 1010 
Matheran 965 
Mahabaleshwar 932 
Bhira 905 
Dongarwadi, Tamhini 960 
Ambone, Tamhini 900
Shirgaon, Tamhini 880 
Navaja, Patan 856 
Davdi, Tamhini 830 
Radhanagari 828 
Kaas, Satara 809 
Koynanagar 774 
Kasari 714 
Lonavla 671 
Igatpuri 580 
Bhimashankar 542 
Lavasa 434 
Ahupe 400 
Khireshwar, Malshej 350 
Trimbakeshwar 183 

Also Below Rainfall pattern clearly states that 14 July to 16 July Active Monsoon Spell was just coastal strip Heavy Rains show and interior region of N.Raigad,Thane & Palghar districts saw just light Rain so it was not widespread level Heavy Rainfall event for North Kokan Division!

Posted Friday 17th:

MJO this monsoon stuck in phase 1 & 2. As per research mjo should move to phase 3-4 for an insitu genesis of low of bay of Bengal. As MJO in phase 3 & 4 enhances the vorticity & the convection in the bay of Bengal. MJO in phase 3&4 further enhances the upper level divergence which favours the formation of low pressure in Bay.
Also the west Pacific has not seen any tropical storm after 13 June. West Pacific has been inactive from last 1 month due to large scale subsidence over the region. So, due to absence of any tropical storm in the west Pacific no remnants are coming in the bay of bengal from Pacific side.
With inactive mjo & no pulse from Pacific side, bay of Bengal is not able to produce any low pressure system this month.
Further, MJO forecast indicates that will continue to be in phase 1,2 for another 10 days. Thus possibility of formation of a low in Bay of Bengal this month looks bleak.
Research by Vagarian Vineet Kumar ( Reasercher at IITM) 

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Struggling Monsoon continues around of Catchment areas of Triangular cities of Maharashtra

Lets be clear that once again last 48 hrs active spell was confined to only Coastal Region of North Konkan while Interior N.Konkan with ghats section and catchment area (Dams) of Mumbai, Pune & Nashik continues to struggle!

To show how heavy rains sticking to coastal and are not widespread in nature this monsoon till now, as beyond Thane belt hardly it is raining from last 3 days! With mostly seeing single digit rains while triple digits are recorded on coastal! So below is rainfall detail of same.

Thane dist rainfall trend clearly shows how rainfall completely devoid interiors

Some rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am of 15 July 2020

Thane 27
Diva 18
Ulhasnagar 16
Mumbra 15
Badlapur 7
Bhiwandi & Dombivli 6
Shahapur & Ambarnath 3
Kalyan & Titwala 2
Murbad & Ambivli 1

Thane dist interiors in eastern side continues to be elude from heavy rains for 2nd straight day were Mumbai lakes are situated! 

Some rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am today dated 16-7-2020 

Mumbra 45
Diva 32
Bhiwandi 23
Dombivli 14
Kalyan 13
Badlapur 8
Shahapur 5
Ambernath & Ambivli 4
Ulhasnagar 2
Murbad 1

So Mumbai Lakes Position continues to be grim as on 16th July is on Actual 3.73 lml of Total Capacity 14.47 lml !! That is just 26% full. Last two years on same date storage was double at 50 & 64% respectively.

While Nashik Region on 30% & Pune region Dams having 29% live storage as on today

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Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Rains lash Mumbai on Wednesday 15th.
Amounts in 24 hrs ended 8.30 am Thursday wit (Totals this season)
Colaba 156 mms (1348 mms), Scruz 191 mms (1418 mms). 

Some rainfall in mm ending 8.30am today dated 16-7-2020 

Vashi, Navi Mumbai 117
Nerul 102
Kasarvadavali, Thane 99
Belapur 97
Bhayandar & Mira road 96
Koparkhairane 91
Juinagar  81
Airoli 57
Mumbra 45
Thane official 43
Diva 32
Bhiwandi 23
Dombivli 14
Kalyan 13

Badlapur 8
Data from Vag. Abhijit

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Posted Tuesday 14th ..Afternoon:

For Farmers:
Aurangabad Region got good showers as mentioned on Monday/Tuesday with the A.P. recording 55 millimetres.
This rainfall of around 20-35 millimeters per day will continue for 2 more days.
Just received pic from Farm in Aurangabad District :

The Monsoon Axis is expected to slide Southwards towards its normal position in the next 2 days...

And an upper air trough will be Forming around M.P. region..
 Rains tracking From East M.P. towards West...
Good rainfall is likely in West M.P,and adjoining East Rajasthan. Gujarat regions will get moderate to good showers ( around 30-40 mms/day) and moderate rains in parts of Eastern Saurashtra. 
Rains will be heavy in Coastal Karnatak and Konkan.

Estimate for 14th/15th/16th:
Mumbai: Tuesday will be partly cloudy with a few showers. Wednesday 15th & Thursday 16th will see some increase in showers frequency. Around 40-60 mms /day.

Pune: Tuesday 14th and Wednesday 15th will see light showers in some parts with amounts around 5-10 mms. Decrease on 16th Thursday.

Surat: Surat had good rains as on 14th morning 24 hrs, with some areas getting around 100 mms. IMD station Surat recorded 64 mms.. This spell ( 40-60 mms) continues for the next 2 days till Thursday.

Jabalpur: Light to medium rains for next 3 days around 5-15 mms/day

Monday, July 13, 2020

Struggling July Rains till now around NW Maharashtra Ghats including Mumbai lakes section

Below is Rainfall compilation in mm for July Rains in Ghats till today dated 13-7-2020

Lonavla 574 Igatpuri 495 Bhimashankar 452 Karjat 419 Malshej lee-side slope 274 (Windward may be around 400mm) Ahupe 351 Trimbakeshwar 178

Mumbai major Lakes which are located at interior North Kokan are performing poor till now !

July Lakes area Rainfall in mm till today dated 13-7-2020

Bhatsa 481 Middle Vaitarna 366 Modak Sagar 351 Upper Vaitarna 342 Tansa 286

So Mumbai Lakes Position as on 13th July is on Actual 3.39 lml of Total Capacity 14.47 lml !! That is just 23% full. Last two years on same date storage was double at 45-47%.

Whereas North Konkan coastal places is performing better as good July Rains until now has been witnessed till today

Thane sees 900 mm & Mumbai SCZ 735 mm in July till now

Tulsi 926 mm & Vihar 646 mm (Lakes within Mumbai city near coast so performing good)

Posted Monday 13th for 4 days forecast: Farmers Forecast
Marathwada can expect good showers on Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th...Aurangabad District can get good showers upto 15-25 millimetres per day on 13th and 14th. There will be some decrease in rains on Wednesday 15th and 16th. Chance for water in the fields to get less after Wednesday 15th, and crops getting some sunshine to help growth.

Pune District will see some increase in rains on 14th, 15th and 16th..some increase in showers around 10-15 mms per day.

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Posted  1 pm Sunday 12th July:

On Sunday, Mumbai City is getting on and off showers, with a short steady spell at times.Rainfall from south Mumbai to North ranged between 35-50 mms, from 8.30 am Sunday.

This may decrease to few showers by late afternoon.  
For 13th Monday and 14th Tuesday, Mumbai will see intermittent  showers spells, but not of longer duration.
More heavy and continuous downpours of increased intensity are expected from Wednesday .(Will update again as rains expected to increase).

Water Reservoir position in Maharashtra as on 12th July:(Of live storage capacity)
Amravati : 26%, Konkan 49%, Aurangabad 27%, Nagpur 44%, Pune 27%.
Overall Maharashtra 31%.

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Total as on 12th July Morning: 5227 mms.
Cherrapunji total for the season crosses 5000 mms today (11th July).. 5k in 1 month And 11 days... 
World Weather News Page Updated..with the Hottest Record Proof of World & Australia

Weather Knowledge Page (10) updated 
On "Derecho"..Good Knowledge & Must Read for all Meteorologists

Friday, July 10, 2020

Posted Friday 10th Afternoon:

The Monsoon Axis lies North of its normal Position.

Hence, heavy rains expected this weekend ( next 3 days) in U.P, Bihar ,Sikkim and NE States.
Moderate rains expected in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and east M.P.

Subdued rainfall over Konkan, Interior Maharashtra, Karnataka, T.N, and NW India. Less rains in Gujarat and West M.P.

Estimate for this Weekend 10th/11th/12th July:

Mumbai: Partly cloudy with a few showers in parts of city. One or two may be heavy and brief. Around 15 -20 mms/day.
Pune: Partly cloudy with light rains upto 5 mms in parts of city.

Delhi: Cloudy with a few showers in parts of Delhi NCR. Chances of heavier showers on Sunday.

Kolkata: Chances of a heavy shower on Saturday. Rest a few showers in some parts.

Jabalpur: Showers spells expected in city on this weekend, and rains averaging 10-20 mms.

  Posted 13th Night: Outlook for Sunday 14th to Wednesday 17th: An off shore trough along the West Coast is expected to bring good rainfall ...