Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The other parameters are slipping ! The anti monsoon, withdrawal parameters are moving Southwards. Today,Tuesday, on observing the OLR map, we find the "browns" creeping towards Maharashtra, and the UTH also shows a reduced humidity (blue)ribbon sweeping across Mah. and totally covering the areas north of the state. 200 mb jet streams are westerly above the 25N line.

According to vagaries, SWM is done with (in addition to regions given previously) from North Gujarat, Rajasthan, North and Central M.P, and East U.P.
Next would be all of Gujarat, North Mah, Utterakhand, rest U.P, and M.P. Besides, Eastern and Central Nepal would see withdrawal in the next 2 days.

And the ridge ? Has it moved away northwards again? On the contrary ! A high pressure area has established itself right over the state of Mah. at sea level. Even at 850 mb, it is seen over the Western Mah.region. So,a high pressure is seen from sea level (1012 mb) to the upper atmosphere over western India.

It seems, that the withdrawal signs and criterea are "catching up" fast on Maharashtra.
Too fast for a last shower in Mumbai ??
Can the hills of Matheran, Mahableshwar and Lonavala still see a farewell thundershower ? Yes, its possible.
One can never say with the weather !


junaid said...

the south west monsoon is very unfair we the ppl of greater mumbai also want their farewell!!!!:)

Anonymous said...

Interesting, I think folks reading this blog from the Western world would be a bit amazed at this clamour for Thunderstorms!! I mean I can understand if the Monsoon has failed and water is required but people praying for Thunderstorms in a bounty year - this is new.

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,
Dont you think its a bit odd that SWM is withdrawing with little firework virtually no thunderstorms. Isnt this bit unusual phenomenon. Places such as Bangalore, Dharwad , Hyderabad usually get heavy showers during withdrawal phase

Regards, Ananth

Rajesh said...

Ananth: I too have been waiting (and forecasting) for the thunderstorms since last week...but, the unusual ridge..as i have explained in the last 2/3 blogs..has come up quite unexpectedly..my Mumbai page says it all :))

NT said...

Rajesh, I do recall one of the years in the last 5 - 7 years (can't put a finger on exactly which year) when there was very little Thunderstorm activity in Mumbai around the SWM Withdrawal phase. Also looking at the 00z runs of the GFS (purely basing my comment on the output of this model) the CAPE values are absolutely zero for the Mumbai region starting tomorrow, the Lifted Index too is completely in the negative. The Precipitation model runs too show no rainfall around Mumbai from Wednesday onwards - completely dry. If this were true, one would have to conclude that the 2011 SWM has sung it's song over Mumbai.

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