Posted Monday 30th Night: 

Cold conditions prevailed in the North Sub -Continent, as mentioned in the article below.
Besides, across the border too, Monday morning temperatures dipped. Islamabad AP fell to -1.0c and Islamabad ZP dropped to -2.7c.Lahore AP was at 0.4c. Karachi was cold at 6.5c and Nawabshah at 2.5c was a bit better after Saturday's 1c.
Kathmandu froze at 0.5c.

Synopsis of Monday 30th:
Rains were reported on Monday 30th, in the vertical strip in North India stretching Southwards roughly from Dehra Dun into Central MP.
An upper air WD ( 700 hpa-500hpa) has moved over Punjab region. The SE and Eastern quadrant of the system id deeper, with resultant SW winds at upper level blowing at 40 knts in the mentioned segment. SW winds at 10000-18000 feet were perfect for cloud condensation, with the already low temperatures. Rising to 18000 feet resulted in thunder cloud formations.

Cold Wave abating  a bit in the start of 2014...
Tuesday 31st, rainfall will occur in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR and adjoining West UP. Also, some Northern regions of MP will get showers. Cloudiness will prevail over the Northern bordering Mah. areas.

Delhi NCR will be partly cloudy and hazy on Tuesday, with showers in some areas. Day will be around 18/19c and Tuesday night will be around 10c. Skies start clearing from New Years Day, and Thursday 2nd and Friday 3rd morning will be foggy and cooler at 5/6c.

Mumbai will be partly cloudy, and around 28/29c on the last day of 2013. 31st night  maybe less cooler than the few preceding nights, at 19c in the suburbs and 21c at Colaba.
New Years Day will be hazy, and warm at 30c, but getting warmer at 31c on the 2nd day of January. Nights are expected to hover around 18/19c at Scruz and 20c in South Mumbai till the end of the week.
Outer townships too, will be partly cloudy and "warmish" compared to the previous week on 31st night.
Pune will be sunny, and 31st Night will be pleasant at 13c.. first week of 2014 will be  between 30c and 13/14c.

What's in store of a Long Range Forecast for 1st Half of January 2014 ?

South:
An Easterly wave has formed east-west along the 8N line. An embedded UAC will form in the trough, and move WNW. It will gradually become well marked (BB-1), and move into Southern most TN and Kerala by around 4th January. Chennai will be cloudy, with some showers by Friday.
Another system (BB-2) may march westwards and cross the TN coast around 13th January.

North: 
Another western disturbance, J-1, moves into Kashmir and HP around the 7th. Since the Upper air trough will slant eastwards, this system will bring negligible rains west of Delhi (including Pakistan). This system will precipitate rains most probably along UP and the Eastern states of Bihar and then Bengal (including Kolkata) around the 8th/9th.
J-1 is expected to bring good rains to Nepal.

J-2 will be more effective and strong, and will bring good precipitations to entire Pakistan (upto Karachi) and move into India. This will be around 13th January by rough and approximate calculations.


A well compiled video by Santosh Subramanian of Major Weather Events of 2013 is made for Vagaries. The Video is worth watching , and can be seen here. 

On Inter active Page, Abhijit Modak's Private Observation of Badlapur Weather , 2013

Freezing cold across Delhi-NCR, North India...

Delhi-NCR and the whole of north India continues to reel under severe cold as the temperature plummeted further. Delhi recorded the coldest morning today in the past 10 years in December. Temperature almost touched freezing point in few parts of Delhi-NCR.

(DELHI-NCR)
Jafarpur: 0.7 °C
Mungeshpur: 0.9 °C
Pusa(IARI): 1.0 °C
Hindon: 1.1 °C
Ayanagar: 1.2 °C
Akshardham: 2.3 °C
Lodhi Road: 2.3 °C
Safdarjung: 2.4 °C
Nuh: 2.4 °C
Najafgarh: 2.6 °C
Faridabad: 2.6 °C
Palam: 3.1 °C
Meerut: 3.5 °C
Noida: 4.5 °C
Ridge: 4.8 °C

(PUNJAB)
Adampur: -2.4 °C
Amritsar: 0.8 °C
Ludhiana: 1.0 °C
Patiala: 2.3 °C
Chandigarh: 3.4 °C

(HARYANA)
Narnaul: -0.5 °C
Hisar: -0.1 °C
Bhiwani: 0.8 °C
Rohtak: 3.4 °C
Ambala: 3.7 °C

(RAJASTHAN)
Churu: -0.1 °C
Mount Abu: 1.0 °C
Sriganganagar; 2.5 °C
Jaisalmer: 5.8 °C
Ajmer: 6.5 °C

(UTTAR PRADESH)
Kanpur: 1.2 °C
Lucknow: 1.9 °C
Agra: 2.5 °C
Meerut: 3.5 °C
Aligarh: 4.0 °C
Bareilly: 5.0 °C
Gorakhpur: 5.4 °C

(JAMMU & KASHMIR)
Leh: -17.0 °C
Gulmarg: -10.0 °C
Pehalgam: -9.0 °C
Kupwara: -6.2 °C
Srinagar: -5.3 °C
Qazigund: -4.8 °C
Banihal: -4.3 °C
Jammu: 3.5 °C
Katra: 5.2 °C

(HIMACHAL PRADESH)
Keylong: -8.9 °C
Kalpa: -5.0 °C
Manali: -3.0 °C
Sundernagar: -1.6 °C
Bhuntar: -1.3 °C
Solan: -1.0 °C
Dalhousie: 0 °C
Hamirpur: 0 °C
Una: 0.3 °C
Chamba: 0.6 °C
Kangra: 2.2 °C
Shimla: 2.5 °C

(UTTARAKHAND)
Almora: 0.1 °C
Tehri: 0.6 °C
Pithoragarh: 1.3 °C
Pantnagar; 2.5 °C
Joshimath: 2.6 °C
Mukteshwar: 2.8 °C
Mussorie: 3.5 °C
Dehradun: 5.6 °C
Nainital: 6.4 °C

Around Mumbai

From Rohit Aroskar

DIFFERENT WEATHER PATTERNS OBSERVED IN WEST INDIA ! AS GUJARAT SEES THE COLD WAVE BUT MAHARASHTRA MISSING THE SAME.

Cold weather grips Kutch, Saurashtra & North Gujarat Region..

As the cold North winds sweeps the region after Christmas so day by day drop in the temp was observed & today various parts of Gujarat experienced cold wave like conditions except South Gujarat region! 

Below are the minimum temperature recorded today (28-12-2013): 

Naliya 2.6°C (below normal by 8c)

Gandhinagar 7.0 °C

Amreli 7.5°C (below normal by 4c)

Rajkot 7.8°C (below normal by 5c)

Ahmedabad 8.3°C (below normal by 4c)

Bhuj 8.6°C

Deesa 8.8°C

Porbandar 8.8°C (below normal by 5c)

Kandla port 9.3°C (below normal by 5c)

Mahuva 9.5°C (below normal by 7c)

Diu 10.0°C

Surendranagar 10.6°C

Mandvi 10.7°C (below normal by 5c)

Valsad 11.6°C

Dwarka 12.2°C (below normal by 5c)

Veraval 12.4°C (below normal by 3c)

Baroda 12.7°C

Bhavnagar 13.0°C

Idar 14.1°C

Surat 15.4°C

Okha 18.3°C



On other hand Maharashtra continues to see above normal min temp due to hazy sky & spotty cumulus clouds popping up with none of the place in the state recorded single digit min temp for today!!

Below are the minimum temperature recorded today (28-12-2013):

Amravati 11.4°C (which is lowest in the state today!)

A'Nagar 12.4°C

Nanded 12.5°C

Pune 13.4°C (Above normal by 3c)

Nagpur 13.6°C

Nashik 14.0°C (Above normal by 4.3c)

Jalgaon 14.2°C (Above normal by 3c)

Beed 14.6°C

Sangli 14.7°C

Aurangabad 15.0°C (Above normal by 4.4c)

Bramhapuri 15.2°C (Above normal by 3.3c)

Chandrapur 15.2°C

Buldhana 16.0°C

Solapur 16.1°C

Akola 16.7°C (Above normal by 3.6c)

Ratnagiri 17.5°C

Mumbai (S'Cruz) 18.0°C

Washim 18.0°C

Alibaug 18.3°C

Dahanu 18.9°C

Panji, Goa 19.3°C

FREEZING COLD CONTINUES IN NORTH INDIA...

Cold wave intensified again today with Hisar in Haryana freezing at 0 °C down by six notches & lowest in the plains of the country. Moradabad recorded the lowest maximum temperature of 13.8 °C in the plains yesterday. The hottest town of Himachal i.e. Una again recorded a low of just 0.2 °C, freezing for the second consecutive day. Churu remained the coldest plain area in Rajasthan today with minimum of just 0.6 °C. Mount Abu dropped below 0 °C and settled at -0.5 °C  Adampur in Punjab dropped to 1.3 °C whereas Amritsar saw minimum of 1.4 °C . Bhatinda at 1.7 °C, Ludhiana at 2.6 °C. Also Narnaul in Haryana recorded minimum of 2 °C today. Chandigarh also at 4 °C.

Cold wave also swept across Delhi-NCR making it the coldest morning of the season. Safdarjung recorded a minimum of 4.9 °C whereas Palam saw a minimum of 5.7 °C. Pusa University(IARI) again remained the coldest in the region at 3.4 °C . Jafarpur & Mungeshpur at 4.1 °C and 4.2 °C, Ayanagar at 4.4 °C, Lodhi Road and Ridge at 4.6 °C.

In NCR Hindon recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 3.5 °C, Meerut at 6.8 °C and Faridabad at 6.9 °C.

In UP, few eastern parts of the state received light rainfall with Capital city Lucknow getting 5.4 mm of rain, Jhansi recorded 8.8 mm of rain. Due to the cloudy weather, most parts of eastern UP recorded higher minimum temperature. However western parts of the state recorded lower temperatures with Agra at 4.9 °C , Aligarh at 6 °C and Bareilly at 6.5 °C.

In the mountains, Leh dropped to -15 °C, Gulmarg at -8.2 °C, Pehalgam at -6.9 °C, Srinagar freezes at -1.9 °C and Jammu at 4.7 °C.

In HP, Keylong remained the coldest in the state with minimum of -9.1 °C , Kalpa -5.6 °C, Manali at a low of -3.2 °C, Dalhousie & Sundernagar at -0.1 °C , Bhuntar and Hamirpur at -0.4 °C and 0 °C. Solan at 0.4 °C. The state Capital Shimla recorded minimum of 1.7 °C.

In Uttarakhand, Tehri dropped to 1.2 °C, Mukteshwar at 1.1 °C and Joshimath at 1.7 °C Mussorie & Nainital at 2.1 °C and 5.2 °C. State Capital Dehradun recorded minimum of 4.9 °C today.

Cold weather continues in North India. Adampur in Punjab recorded the lowest temperature in the plains at 1.1c. Ludhiana recorded minimum of 1.6c, Bhatinda 2.3c, Anandpur Sahib 2.9c, Amritsar 3c, Pathankot 3.1c and Chandigarh 3.8c. The maximum stood at 17.7c and 20.2c in Amritsar & Patiala today. The Day temperatures are largely normal in the state due to less fog and abundant sunshine.

In Haryana, Hisar recorded minimum of 1.7c lowest in the state, Narnaul recorded 3.9c, Bhiwani & Kurukshetra at 5.4c and 5.7c. Hisar recorded maximum of 21.1c which is normal for this time of the year.

Delhi-NCR remained cool & cloudy today with few places getting drizzle/very light rain till afternoon. Safdarjung recorded minimum of 6.5c whereas Palam at 6.9c today. Due to the cloudy weather, almost all places recorded day temperature below 19c. Safdarjung & Palam maximum for today is 17.1c and 17.6c. Pusa University recorded the lowest temperature in the region at 4.2c today.
In NCR, Hindon recorded the lowest minimum of 4.6c whereas Nuh recorded the lowest maximum temperature of 15.4c. Faridabad recorded maximum of 16c today. Noida recorded 1 mm of rain also.

In UP, Lucknow at 5c and Bareilly at 6c. Few places in the western parts also recorded light rainfall.
Maximum places in Rajasthan saw rise in minimum temperature due to cloudy weather. Few places in east Rajasthan also recorded light rainfall. Kota recorded 4.2 mm of rain. Churu recorded the lowest minimum of 2.1c. Mount Abu stood at 5c today.

In the mountains, Leh recorded minimum of -15c, Pehalgam at -9.6c, Gulmarg -8.6c, Sringar -0.6c and Jammu 4.6c. Shimla at 0.2c, Manali -3.6c, Kullu 0.5c and Una recorded minimum of 0c today.
Tehri recorded -0.4c, Mussorie 2.6c and Nainital 7c. Dehradun minimum is 5.5c today.

MAHARASHTRA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS..

After experiencing cold mornings & below normal min temps last whole week, now the conditions has got reversed as above normal min temps has been recorded in most parts of the state today !


We will see max/min temp trend for today(26-12-2013)..


As East winds are ruling the Konkan & Goa  region so days are warmer and min temp are also above normal by 1/ 2°C for this time of the year..


Mumbai (S'Cruz) max 33.0°C & min 19.4°C

Alibaug max 30.9°C & min 20.3°C

Ratnagiri max 33.2°C & min 18.4°C

Panji, Goa max 33.5°C & min 20.2°C

Dahanu max 27.5°C & min 19.4°C (Only place to see an below normal max temp today  !)



With East winds prevailing so days are comfortable in interiors part of  state but morning are less colder with above normal min temp by 1/2°C..


Pune max 28.2°C & min 12.0°C

Nashik max 28.9°C & min 12.7°C

A'Nagar max 30.5°C & min 12.0°C

Solapur max 30.4°C & min 14.7°C

Aurangabad max 27.6°C & min 14.6°C

Akola max 30.1°C & min 15.8°C

Nagpur 28.2°C & min 13.0°C

Nanded min temp 9.0°C (which is lowest in the state & also only place to see a single digit min temp today !) 

NORTH INDIA SHIVERS...

Temperatures further dropped today in most parts of the North-Western India.

Churu(Rajasthan)  today recorded the lowest temperature in the plains at 0.9c.
In Haryana, Narnaul recorded 1.8c. Also Hisar stood at 2.1c, Bhiwani at 2.8c, Karnal at 4.4c, Rohtak at 5.8c.
In Punjab, Amritsar recorded 2.2c, Ludhiana at 3.6c, Chandigarh  at 5.8c, Patiala recorded 6.2c as the minimum temperature.

In Rajasthan, Sriganganagar recorded minimum of 2.5c, Bikaner at 5.3c whereas the pink city Jaipur recorded a minimum of 7.4c. Jaisalmer stood at 7.8c today.

National Capital also saw a fall in temperature with Safdarjung at a low of 6.2c, Palam at 6.7c, Pusa University recorded a minimum of 3.8c lowest in the whole Delhi-NCR region. Mungeshpur at 4.7c, Najafgarh & Jafarpur at 4.9c, Lodhi Road at 5c and Ayanagar at 6c.
NCR also saw a fall in temperature today with Hindon at 4.7c, Faridabad at 6c, Nuh at 7.9c.

In UP, Taj city Agra recorded 3.5c, Lucknow 5.4c, Sultanpur 5.6c, Bareilly at 6c, Kanpur at 6.6c, Aligarh at 7.2c, Meerut 7.3c, Moradabad at 8c and Varanasi stood at 8.6c today.

In the mountains, Leh remained the coldest city with minimum temperature at -14c, Gulmarg saw a minimum of -7.4c with 0.32 cm of snowfall, Kupwara at -3c, Pehalgam at -2.4c, Bhaderwah at -2c, Qazigund recorded 0.2c whereas Srinagar recorded 1.8c. Jammu city recorded a minimum of 5.7c.

In Himachal, Keylong dropped to -7.6c, Kalpa remained at -4c, Hill station Manali at -2.4c, Kullu at 0.2c, Solan at 1c whereas the Capital city Shimla saw minimum going down to 2.4c, Dharamsala a 6.4c. Also Sundernagar dropped below 0c and recorded -0.3c. Una city recorded minimum of 2.3c today.

In Uttarakhand, Mukteshwar stood at 0.6c, Tehri at 1.4c, Mussorie & Nainital at 2.7c & 6.1c, Pithoragarh at 3.3c, Joshimath 3c. Dehradun recorded a minimum of 4.6c.

 

Mussoorie received the first snowfall of the season yesterday to the sheer delight of tourists, visitors made a beeline to the famous hill resort and its neighbouring Laltibba and Dhanaulti areas to be in the lap of snow-clad environs.
Testerday, Tehri was the coldest place in the state recording a low of 0.8 degree Celsius followed by Mukteshwar (1.6 degrees), Pithoragarh (2.6 degrees C) and Mussoorie (2.7 degrees C).
Today, In Kashmir, Gulmarg, covered with snow, saw a low of -9.3c, while Leh was -8.9c.

Meanwhile,  a new heat wave with maximum temperatures around 37 C (99 F), residents of Greater Buenos Aires prepare Tuesday to celebrate Christmas Eve. 

Tamil Nadu on Christmas Morning...Rohit's Page
A rare Christmas conjunction of stars..which inlcudes our own Planet !..See Space News Page

         Next few days colder in North>>> See Flash Snippet>>>>>>

Global Warming - 5 

Weather Alarmists Forecasted “Ice-Free” Arctic by 2013; Ice Cover Expands 50%

Everyone who has been following news about “global warming” — now more often referred to as “climate change” owing to public-relations concerns — also know that global temperatures have not risen ''alarmingly" for last 17  years. 2013 marks the 17th year of no warming on the planet. 

Almost everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the cause of global warming. 2013 was the best of years for climate sceptics; the worst of years for climate change enthusiasts for whom any change – or absence of change — in the weather served as irrefutable proof of climate change.

The spectacular lack of warming demolished all 73 of the “climate models” used by the United Nations to push its controversial theories.

Self-styled “global-warming” supposed “climate scientists” have egg all over their faces — big time. In 2007, 2008 and 2009, they publicly and very hysterically warned that the North Pole would be “ice-free” by around 2013 because of alleged “man-made global warming.” Citing “climate” experts, the governments hyped the mass hysteria, running a now-embarrassing article under the headline: “Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’.” 
German scientists have predicted that based on declining sunspot activity and natural climate oscillation the world will cool over the next century. Temperatures will eventually drop to levels corresponding with the “little ice age” of 1870.

Speaking to an audience in Germany five years ago, Gore  alleged that “the entire North Polarized cap will disappear in 5 years.”  “Five years,” Gore emphasized again, is “the period of time during which it is now expected to disappear.”

Well, 2013 is almost over, and contrary to the alarmist “predictions” and what critics refer to as  “doomsday cult,” the latest satellite data show that Arctic ice cover has actually expanded 50 percent over 2012 levels. In fact, during October, sea-ice levels grew at the fastest pace since records began in 1979. 
Experts now predict the expansion to continue in the years to come, leaving global-warming alarmists scrambling fiendishly for explanations to save face — and to save the rapidly melting climate hysteria.   

In the Arctic, for example, data collected by Europe's Cryosat spacecraft pointed to about 9,000 cubic kilometres of ice at the end of the 2013 melt season. In 2012, which was admittedly a low year, the total volume was about 6,000 cubic kilometres — some 50 percent less than the 2013 total. (Polar bear populations are thriving, too.)   

See the the Sat Images of Ice levels (as discussed which are purported to be decreasing) are shown here for 2013, 6 years ago 2007 and 13 years ago 2000. See the Ice coloured yellow.

Alarmists claims at a  UN “climate” summit in Copenhagen. 
“Some of the models ... suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore claimed in 2009, “We will find out.” 

Lets see, here is the Sat Image of the Ice Cap end June 2013 !

In fairness, in December of 2007, the BBC highlighted alleged “modelling studies” that supposedly “indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.” Incredibly, some of the supposed “experts” even claimed it could happen before then, citing calculations performed by “super computers” that the BBC noted “has become a standard part of climate science in recent years.” BBC... too joined the band wagon ? 

Across the southern hemisphere, the figures from 2012 showed a record high level of sea-ice cover — more than at any point since records began in 1978. This year set another new record, with ice covering more than 19.5 million square kilometres of ocean around Antarctica by September.

Around the world, meanwhile, record low temperatures continue to make a mockery of “global warming” theories.  Cairo, Egypt, just saw its first snowfall in more than 100 years. In the United States there have been thousands of new records for cold temperatures and snowfalls just in the month of December. 
Vietnam sees snowfall and Cambodia wrapped in a cold wave...See Here

Many experts are now even predicting global cooling.

And last, but not the least, a comment and video from our much respected meteorologist Joe Bastardi....see video here  

Surprise! The media still doesn’t want to discuss climate change that much.The media and press are now increasingly failing to inform the general public of these "reverse" changes....And, as expected, the cause of this extreme cold and record snows ?....Global Warming say the "climate scientists" and the GW theory backers !.heat wave and cold wave..both caused by Global Warming.  Some “climate scientists” have even started claiming that the freezing temperatures are actually more evidence of “global warming.” ...confusing isnt it ? You are the Best Judge ..??

Major excerpts from Whatts Up with that, Ice Age now, several News Coverages, NOAA Sat Images and MET Office Hardcut Data. 

The Previous 4 Articles are in the Archives of this Blog

Snow on Nagaland Hills...Due to snowfall in Japfu peak, just above Kohima town,.The second highest peak Mount Japfü, at an altitude of 3,015 meters under Kohima district, also wore the snow cap for more than 20 days now and there were reports of snowfall in the Viswema and surrounding villages for past few days.
Kohima, located at an altitude of 1,444.12 meter above sea level, has also been reeling under severe cold wave. The lowest temperature has been swinging between 1.5 to 2 degree Celsius. Snowfall is reported on almost all hilltops .Mount Saramati, at an altitude of 3840.00 meters, the highest peak of Nagaland located near Tuensang town, Tuensang district and Thanamir Village in the Kiphire district, has been covered with snow for past one month.(From Nagaland Post)

 

Article on Global Warming, the next in the series,  will be Published on Monday 23rd evening...

Quetta receives first snowfall; cold wave reaches Karachi | SAMAA TV

Quetta receives first snowfall; cold wave reaches Karachi | SAMAA TV

First Snowfall this season in Simla..clicked Sunday afternoon

Posted Sunday Morning: 

Rain/Snow in North as WD-2 whizzes past...
Simla minimum dips to 0c with 5 mms of rain till Sunday morning...Manali received 27 mms with temperature dippingbelow freezing at -1.2c

Sinagar had 5 mms with a high yesterday at 6.5c...so, snow expected on Sunday, as morning temperature was 0c.
In Punjab, Chandigarh received 9.9 mms and Amritsar 2.4 mms till Sunday morning.
Mumbai Scruz dipped to 14.8c, a shade higher than Mahableshwar, which was at 13.5c...and Colaba measured 19.0c. ...

Quetta receives first snowfall...The valley here on Saturday received first snowfall of the winter season that sent the mercury sliding down to -7c and the resultant cold waves reaching Karachi also suddenly took the city in its grip with overcast skies and cool winds. Jawad reports of cool winds and 21c at noon. . Murree had snow on Saturday.

WD-2 vanishes in 24 hrs, to be followed by a cold spell..Details tonite

From Rohit

A new article in the (so called) Global Warming series will be up on vagaries blog on Sunday night...

Lake Michigan ice a month earlier than usual...See International Page

Graphical Presentation of Mumbai and Pune Temperatures (Hourly) ..See Rohit's Page

Posted Wednesday 18th Evening:

Dense fog in Punjab, Delhi and Western UP have resulted in a sharp fall in day temperatures, with Amritsar not rising over 12.0c on Wednesday, and 13.8c on Tuesday. Most Punjab cities were below 20c in the day. 
Delhi NCR recorded a drop and cold day on Wednesday, with the range around 20c. Mungeshpur was coldest in the day today at 18.3c, while S'Jung aw a high of 22.3c
In UP, Meerut and Hindon high on Wednesday was 19.8c, as versus 20.7c on Tuesday.

Thursday/Friday/Saturday: Sub Continent ( India, Pakistan and Nepal) Precipitation : Nil ! Dry as a Bone ! NEM showers continue in Sri Lanka.

On Saturday, a trough will start to form (East-West) along the Northern plains. On Saturday, this will bring some cloudiness in the Northern parts of the plains of India.

Sunday 22nd, the above mentioned trough would merge with a WD. Overcast weather with light rains expected on Sunday 22nd, in Punjab and parts of Haryana. 

Delhi NCR would be cloudy, with light rain in some areas. As a result, the current fog would abate from Saturday. By Saturday, Days would get cooler to around 20/21c and nights would edge up a few notches. Delhi weather clears up quickly by Monday.

But, Sunday and Monday heavier and more widespread rains are more likely in Northern Pakistan, and Kashmir and HP regions of India. Snow over the middle hills (Gulmar/Pahalgam/Keylong) possible on Sunday and Monday. Srinagar may get some dusting of snow alongwith rains.

Mumbai: Maximum temperatures in Mumbai have been around 32/33c last few days, with E and NE winds blowing. 

The above mentioned trough will be good for Mumbai, as Northern winds will dominate from Thursday itself, and the day temperatures will see a fall of 2/3c till the week end. The current maximum temperatures in Mumbai are 32/33c. Would expect a fall to 29/30c. A very "smoggy" and low visibility Friday night and Saturday morning. Night lows at Scruz would remain around 15/16c till Saturday, with slight rise on Sunday.
Outer townships too could have a similar effect.

I would not anticipate much change South of Mumbai in the Konkan. The E and NE winds would continue South of Mumbai as the effect of the N winds  from the trough would not be far reaching. S.Konkan and Goa would be warmer in the days.
South winds would warm up Vidharbh for the week end.
Gujarat would have strong Northerly winds, cooling down the days appreciably. Nights would also see a fall in temperatures in Gujarat from Thursday through Sunday.

The east west trough instability will bring some stray clouds over Kolkata on Friday. The night temperatures would rise as a result to around 16/17c. On clearing, a drop and a foggy morning on Sunday.

Chennai, what's with the NEM ? Only NE winds blowing. Chennai, with cool, misty mornings with the mercury reading around 19/20c, there are no signs of any revival (of the NEM ) this week till Sunday. The Vagaries NEM page is also running dry !
Chennai AP has received 486 mms ths season, which is 259 less than normal, and city has guaged up 436 mms, again as much as 382 less than normal.
Clear and cool , foggy mornings for Bangalore. Nights around 13/14c.

Karachi will be clear, with the current 17c falling to 14/15c at night. 
Kathmandu will be cold in the 16c- 5c range, with shallow fog in the morning and hazy sunshine in the day.


Southern Peninsula places below 20c today ...(Minimum)...See Rohit's Page

Sri Lanka Weather: On Monday, 16th Dec, Typical NE Monsoon Weather in Sri Lanka as the Easterly Wave has been pushed South. The Eastern Region and  Uva region are expected to get good showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Highest rainfall of 44 mms was recorded from Kahagolla Estate...and coldest was, as usual, Nuwara Eliya at 8.2c...

Dry weather for India and Pakistan next few days, with the HPA sitting pretty over the region. Fog enveloped the entire NW and Northern regions, with bisibility down to almost 0. 
Thick fog enveloped Delhi NCR and adjoining UP till 10.30 am IST. Amritsar reports fog till 2.30 pm IST with temperature not rising over 13c till last report.

The expected cold wave conditions for Northern Odisha and adjoining Chattisgarh prevailed (as per map). Monday Sambhalpur recorded a low of 7.8c....

More on the coming weather and wet spell in update late tonite...

 Delhi Fog Pic sent by Rajiv...17th December 2013

Recent Middle East Snow of 15th December..Sat Image

See Maharashtra Temps (Sunday)on Rohit's Page..This List Prepared by Rohit

U.S. has some astounding News ! 98 high temperature records, and 141 high minimum temperature records, 1234 low max records and 606 low min records...and 2825 New Records THIS WEEK !!

Snow (Massive) reports from Up-State New York here...

Rare snow blankets Middle East..See International Page

Video on "Madi" from Santosh Subramanian (yet again)....see video

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The 3 corner Cities of our map, Islamabad (5c) Chennai (25c) and Kolkata (14c) went haywire on the first weekend morning....Posted Saturday Evening

Posted on Friday Night..For the Weekend 14th/15th December

Tuesday Night: 

If we continue from the last post (Monday Night), we see the dry air from the West of the cyclone has covered the entire Southern Semi Circle as expected. The clouding has weakened and so has the system. At just about T3.7 with winds in the Northern segmant at around (estimated) 60 knts and pressure estimated at 990 mb. 
Located at 15.1N and 85E, it is now just hovering around a point like a top about to loose speed.

Will weaken and dissipate before reaching any land mass as mentioned yesterday. The dry air will catch up on Madi. 

As estimated few days back, as Madi "winds up" later, an Easterly wave forms ( from 12th) in the Southern Bay and expands Westwards in a couple of days.

Lowest minimums as on Tuesday Morning: : Orissa @ 6 c ..(Phulbani) ..Maharashtra : 6.8 c (Ahmadnagar), Pune was 7.2c. ..
Karnataka :7 c ( Bijapur) ..Andhra Pradesh .. 8.5 c (Adilabad), 
Ooty 5.2c, Kodai 8.2c, Chennai (MNBKM) 18c.

NCR was cold too, with Pusa University going down to 6c and most places in NCR around 8/9c.

All due to High pressure and bringing in of dry air...Rohit and Abhijit tell of these low humidity figures along West coast:, Ratnagiri 13%, Mumbai 19%, Thane 22%,  Pune 19% Nasik 18%, Panji 30%, Mangalore 28%, but Honavar was low at 14%. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday Night Post:

"Madi" is still a Severe Cyclone, with core winds at 60 knts and pressure 970 mb at T4.8...Located , having moved due North in last 12 hrs, at 15.3N and 84.7E. 
Will track NNE slowly and weaken.

A comparatively dry patch of air also runs along the Eastern coast, and is seen seeping into the southern half of the cyclone semi circle. However, the wrapping around the cyclone is slow. 
Since large patches of dry air are to the West, Madi is going to encounter dry air and weaken rapidly after 24 hrs. System most likely to dissipate in the West-Central Bay itself. ( Before hitting land as a system).

Very dry humidity conditions were observed along the West Coast of India, North of Goa. Maily due to strong NE winds blowing from the land into the sea. NE winds due to HPA in NW India.
Ratnagiri had an unusual low humidity of 8%, Mumbai low humidity was 16 % and inland Pune was very dry at 9% humidity !

This extremely dry patch runs from South Gujarat to Goa. Dry air (too a lesser extent) runs Southwards towards the Kerala coast, ( Less humid as winds are Northerly here) and covering the Southern Seas around Sri Lanka. 

Mungeshpur in Delhi NCR had the coldest day temperature on Monday at 23.3c. Other places in NCR were around 24/25c. Minimum is around 9c.
In the Northern plains, Adampur in Punjab was the coldest at 4.4c.

Karachi will be dry and cool, with minimum at 13/14c. Sukkur expected to be between 11-13c, while Hyderabad Sindh can see lows around 11c. Nawabshah will see a low of around 8/9c.


Dry and pleasant for Kathmandu. Maybe some fair weather cumulus clouds by afternoon, but otherwise days around 20c, and nights pleasant at 6/7c.

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Sunday Night latest shows Madi having moved North to 13.3N and 84.5E, with winds at 65 knts. Weakening will start once the dry air covers the Northern and Western periphery...still dry air just about approaching the Southern side.
But, the system will continue to move North and then NE. Further re curving Southwards is not immediately feasible at the current strength.

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A brief Note on why the forecast Models have changed their Track for Madi: Sunday Evening

Most of the International Models and IMD forecasts have changed their forecast track for Madi. We see a new U-Turn, that is a SW track after 12-24 hrs. 
The reason for changing : Dry air is seen seemingly wrapping around the system. Now, that is not un common. Lehar had dry air wrapping from the NE and choked the cyclone as we mentioned in vagaries.
This sytem is not yet getting choked, and the dry air is covering it from the South. A stream is sweeping from Sri Lanka, and is seen now to some extent to the South of Madi. It is just about seeping into the SE outer periphery.
Now, it is assumed, that this will weaken the cyclone. Once it is weakened, the upper air jet streams will loose their grip on the cyclone, so, the contention is it will stop its Northerly track. 
Once in the grip of lower winds, the system as a depression or WML, will get steered alongwith the NE winds.
BUT, all this depends on the initial parameter, the dry air wrapping it.

I would NOT jump to any fast or hasty conclusion of announcing a SW track, till I see the extent to which the much forecasted dry air covers it, and how fast. Because, if it is slow in weakening it, the system could well continue its Northward march.

Let us observe and monitor for another 12 hours before drawing a conclusion...

Rohit's Page with Maharashtra Lows today...

Posted Saturday Night

BB-21 is now "Madi" and a Severe Cyclone,....is located at 11N and 84.3E.
Studying the sub tropical ridge, we see the Southern Limit of the ridge slightly South of 10N, and of course the Northern Limit is in the North Bay. We see a sort of  "absolute no upper wind direction and a sort of stagnancy " in the Western core section of the ridge.
Another HPA and ridge is located over the Indian mainland, though at a lower altitude. 
Madi  is located in the stagnant area of the sub tropical ridge. That is the reason why Madi is almost quasi stationary, and expected to remain with very negligible tracking next 18-24 hrs. 

Once it breaks free from the region, it will have a  steering guide, and will enter the Western edge of the sub tropical ridge and move NNE. Also the lower level ridge over the mainland can move East and push the system towards skirting the East Coast.

Some models forecast a Southerly track. It can go the SW way only if it gets "entangled" in the Southern periphery edge of the Sub Tropical ridge, and get pulled SW  with the upper winds...more on NEM Page

The HPA mentioned above is the High Pressure which was anticipated to cover the Northern and Central Indian regions from 2nd week of December.

Few places in the NCR have gone below the 24c mark (maximum temp)...we can expect a gradual fall in day and night temperatures. 

Rajastan, Gujarat and Maharashtra can expect a fall in night temperatures next few nights.
Places in Kutch may go down by 3/4c from current levels, and lowest may reach around 10c. Surat and Bharuch will have cooler nights around 15c.
Mumbai will see cooler nights, with lows around 18/19c (Scruz) and outer townships seeing a fall to 16c next few nights.
Next 2/3 nights, Pune and Nasik will be cooler around 8/9c.

Kolkata gets partly cloudy soon, so remains in the current 27- 16c range till Wednesday. After Wednesday we can expect a drop in night temperatures.

UK Storm in Pictures..Sent By Santosh Subramanian..
 See here...(Posted on International Page also)

Vagaries will not be updated next few days as I will be travelling with very limited time and facility to write..next Update on Saturday 7th December...

NEM Page and Mumbai Page Updated on Monday Night...

India’s First Mars Probe ‘MOM’ Blasts Free of Earth Joining MAVEN in  Race to Red Planet

Race to Red Planet

Trans Mars Injection (TMI), carried out on Dec 01, 2013 at 00:49 hrs (IST) has moved the spacecraft in the Mars Transfer Trajectory (MTT). With TMI the Earth orbiting phase of the spacecraft ended and the spacecraft is now on a course to encounter Mars after a journey of about 10 months around the Sun. Credit: ISRO

India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) swings around Earth on its final orbit and breaks free of the Home Planet following final engine burn on Dec. 1 placing her on Mars Transfer Trajectory.

The Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) firing propelled India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) away from Earth forever and placed the spacecraft on course for a rendezvous with the Red Planet on September 24, 2014 – where it will study the atmosphere and sniff for signals of methane.


From CAPE CANAVERAL, FL – India’s first ever Mars probe ‘MOM’ successfully fired its main engine today (Dec. 1), blasting the craft free of the Earth’s sphere of influence forever to begin her nearly yearlong momentous voyage to the Red Planet.



MAVEN thunders to Space on Journey to Study Red Planet’s Watery History and Potential for Life
 
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FL – NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) space probe thundered to space today (Nov. 18) following a flawless blastoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station’s Space Launch Complex 41 at 1:28 p.m. EST atop a powerful Atlas V rocket.
It will take the spacecraft 10 months to reach the Red Planet, with arrival scheduled for Sept. 22, 2014.

MAVEN will answer key questions about the evolution of Mars, its geology and the potential for the evolution of life.


Similar Goals:

Both MAVEN and MOM’s goal is to study the Martian atmosphere, unlock the mysteries of its current atmosphere and determine how, why and when the atmosphere and liquid water was lost – and how this transformed Mars climate into its cold, desiccated state of today.

India’s MOM – ‘Mangalyaan’ mission is expected to continue gathering measurements at the Red Planet for at least six months and hopefully much longer.

MAVEN could operate for a decade or longer and is also crucial for relaying images and data collected by NASA’s current and upcoming surface rovers and landers.

Although they were developed independently and have different suites of scientific instruments, the MAVEN and MOM science teams will “work together” to unlock the secrets of Mars atmosphere and climate history, MAVEN’s top scientist told Universe Today.

“We have had some discussions with their science team, and there are some overlapping objectives,” Bruce Jakosky told me. Jakosky is MAVEN’s principal Investigator from the University of Colorado at Boulder.

“At the point where we [MAVEN and MOM] are both in orbit collecting data we do plan to collaborate and work together with the data jointly,” Jakosky said.