Saturday, December 31, 2022

 Mumbai, Delhi and World Ranking Air Quality Index on Last Day of 2022

Thursday, December 29, 2022

New Year Weekend Forecast - 30th December till 1st January:

With the Western Disturbance over Himalayas set to move away eastward tomorrow (30th), cool northerlies likely.

Getting cooler...another round of wintry feel for Mumbai and Konkan.

Mumbai: Warm day on Friday 30th, cool breeze likely from evening. Saturday 31st and Sunday 1st would see cool breeze through the day, with max around 29-30°C, and min on New Year Eve can drop till around 15-16°C. 

Very good weather for outdoor New Year celebration and revelries.!!

Pune: Due to westerly component in the wind, days can remain warm around 31-32°C, nights will be cooler with min dropping till around 11-12°C.

------------------------------------Estimated Saturday..👇

Interior Konkan and Thane district can see min dropping till about 12°C, with some places even touching 10°C.

Nashik: Slightly cooler than Pune, min temperature around 9-10°C. 

Ratnagiri: Warm day on Friday, but Cool breeze on Saturday 31st and Sunday 1st, max can remain around 31°C, and min around 17°C. 

Gujarat to also see cooler weather over this weekend. Expected range of temperatures:

Bharuch: 28°C/15°C

Ahmedabad: 28°C/12°C

Rajkot: 28°C/12°C

Surat: 28°C/14°C

Vadodara: 28°C/11°C

Naliya: 27°C/7°C

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

28th December  2022...

Global cold wave updates: Snowstorms in US, Canada, extreme cold waves in India, sinking temperatures in UK, Europe brings world to a standstill....

(Warmest Year in Decades. ?)

Winters this year have been wrecking havoc around the world with extreme cold and snowstorms. Millions of people around the world are facing extreme weather conditions and the consequences that they come with, like cancelling of flights, highway blockades, and almost zero travel at a time when people go to their homes ahead of the holiday season. 

Howling winds, heavy snow and frigid air which can turn boiling water into ice instantly have hit most of the nations like the USA, India, Japan and parts of Europe, including parts of the world which are normally temperate. But why the world is freezing? It is due to a phenomenon called La Nina, which is almost the opposite of the warming phenomenon of the El Nino effect. 

What is La Nina?

La Nina is an oceanic phenomenon that influences the atmosphere around us by opposing El Nino. When warm winds blow, the surface of a body of water warms. The El Nino effect causes trade winds to blow east, pushing warm water off the surface of the Pacific Ocean towards America's west coast. As a result of heat evaporating into the atmosphere, temperatures rise in regions near the equator. Cooler water from the depths naturally begins to rise.

28th December North India Cold

Tuesday, December 27, 2022

Slight warming trend across Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra this week...

Below forecast till Thursday 29th December:

Temperatures rising by 2-3°C this week for Mumbai and konkan...would be in the range of 31-32°C max and around 18°C min. 

Interior konkan can be slightly cooler at night around 15°C.

Pune: Warm daytime with max around 32°C and min would be around 12-14°C.

Nashik max around 31°C and min close to 12°C. 

A fresh Western Disturbance would affect north India from 29th December...temperatures can drop across north, central and western parts of the country from 30th weather during New Year for Maharashtra and Gujarat...more updates by Thursday.

Sunday, December 25, 2022

 25th...North Shivers with Ladakh at -20.8°c, Sikar at 0.5°c, Delhi Ridge at 3°

Saturday, December 24, 2022

 World Weather Page Up dated

Vagaries Blog  touches 40 Lacs...4 Million Hits ...Still  Ranked No.2 Weather Blog in India and No.33 in the World.

Message from Ex - IMD Scientist Shri Sikandar ji👇

 "Congratulations Mr Rajesh Kapadia Sir and Team " Vagaries of Weather" motivating young generation to learn & develope the prediction of weather , especially the current weather and its implications, Changes etc.

It is very remarkable that how you developed your skill in  developing the weather forecast in different parts of India in your own technique.

Moreover you started the study of Meteorological events from.last 42+ years by decoding and plotting on  charts @Regional Met.Center at Colaba, Mumbai. 

One should know .....

you developed   "Study of Meteorology" can be  adopted as a hobby..

We salute you .. Kapadia Sir ji for your enthusiasm and guidance."

"तुस्सी ग्रेट सर जी"


Vagaries response:👇

Thank you for the kind words.

It's always been the encouragement and help from my mentors in IMD and IITM that has made me someone known in Meteorology. 

My creation of the Vagaries platform has been my wish to share my knowledge and bring on many enthusiastic young weatherman. Some are outshining and doing well for themselves.

Thank you for your trust.

24th December...

Finally...(See estimated in post below) Mumbai and Konkan get a taste of winter 

Lowest minimum of the season recorded in Mumbai with Santacruz settling at 16°C, Colaba 18.8°C...Matheran 19.0c..😲

Today 24th and tomorrow 25th - cool winds likely along Mumbai region and Konkan. Mumbai can see further drop by 1-2°C by tomorrow/Monday morning, with minimum settling around 15°C

Mahabaleshwar 15.5c

Pune Shivajinagar 11.6°C

Nashik 10.3°C

Interior Konkan and Thane district may see minimum temperature dropping to 12-13°C

Gujarat minimum temperatures today:

Ahmedabad 10°C

Baroda 10.6°C

Surat 15.4°C

Bhavnagar 13°C

Dwarka 16°C

Porbandar 12.4°C

Thursday, December 22, 2022

Forecast for Christmas weekend.....23rd to 26th.

Drop expected in day temperatures over Konkan

Mumbai : Weather still warm...But, After Friday, cool West/NW breeze would lower the daytime temperature to around 30°C in  Mumbai ( and Konkan), maybe below 30°C  for Mumbai. While last few days it was 👇

Date16-12-202217-12-202218-12-202219-12-202220-12-202221-12-2022Total / Average
Rain (mm)
Temp Max (℃)34.935.635.935.233.533.734.8
Temp Min (℃)23.023.423.622.020.519.622

...Lows at night can settle around 16/17 °C by Sunday and Monday morning

Pune...could be warmer than Mumbai in daytime with max 31-33°C, but nights cooler around 11-12°C...Last few day 👇

Date16-12-202217-12-202218-12-202219-12-202220-12-202221-12-2022Total / Average
Rain (mm)
Temp Max (℃)31.432.331.731.231.331.331.5
Temp Min (℃)16.517.

Nashik/Aurangabad  can be cooler with min around  9/11c.

All India Outlook for 24th/25th...

22nd December...

 Tempted to joke about global warming amid a blizzard?

Most of US to be 'dangerously cold' as holiday week winter storm spawns blizzard, whiteout conditions

More than half of U.S. states are forecast to see some areas with minimum wind chill temperatures in the negative double digits, with the coldest regions bracing for wind chills below -50 degrees, according to the weather service. It amounts to "dangerously cold conditions across most of the country this week."

Temp in Degrees F

Much of the eastern two-thirds of the country can expect heavy snow, damaging winds and even some heavy rainfall to accompany the extreme cold through the holiday weekend, according to the National Weather Service. 

"This storm really means business in the Midwest and Great Lakes," AccuWeather senior meteorol

 Dense Fog on Thursday Morning  in Punjab Haryana


Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Sunday, December 18, 2022

December 18th

The hottest places on India today 

In AWS Stations, Chiplun ( Maharashtra) recorded 37.2c...(Info from Vag Abhijit)

Though unusually hot in Mumbai this December,  in the last 10 years, the hottest day on Mumbai in December was 37.3c on 31st  in 2015

And the hottest ever for December was in 1987...4th December,  when Mumbai saw a blazing 39.8c

This heat this year is due to absence of WDs in North India. Which resulted in East winds overpowering the typical winter Northerlies.

We expect Mumbai to drop to 21/22 c after 23rd December. 

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Mumbai does it again...hottest place in the subcontinent with maximum temperature touching 35.9°C!! 🔥

Summer like feel continues for the city, suburbs and entire konkan belt...

Sea breeze setting in post noon...leading to wind convergence and cumulus cloud development close to Western Ghats. 

Friday, December 16, 2022

Weather forecast till Monday 19th December...


Again, the dubious record of the Hottest place in the Sub Continent (Unofficially hottest is Karjat,Mah. at 38.6c..Vag Abhijit)

Temperature this weekend will range from 34c in the day to 23,/24c at night. (Feeling of absence of winter)

Pune: Not the typical Pune weather.  Partly cloudy ( hence warmer) With the temperatures around 31 to 16c.

Next 3/4 days Northern plains & Maharashtra ...

No precipitation,  so stable colder/colder in North India. Churu, in Rajasthan saw 1.3 °c today. So, 1° to 5°c temperatures expected in Rajasthan, Punjab,  Haryana next 3 nights.

But not much in Maharashtra. The rainfall system moves away after 2/3 days of moderate rains in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. 

New low BB-19 forms over southeast Bay of Bengal, heading west...can bring rains to Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka. Heavier rains could be around Sri Lanka and southern Tamil Nadu. 

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Posted 15th December Afternoon

Remnants of cyclone Mandous intensify into a deep depression (AS-4) over the Arabian Sea!!

Moving away westwards, light rain/thundershowers in patches likely for Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, parts of south Gujarat and south Madhya Pradesh today and tomorrow. 

The effect on Minimum Temperatures in Maharashtra...Yesterday Mumbai had a minimum of 25c...7c above normal, and a max of 35c..6c April temps.

Light drizzles likely in some areas.

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

 Rainfall West off Mumbai...

Wednesday afternoon...Darker Region Heaviest Rainfall


London Coated In First Snow Of Winter After Cold Snap 

Sunday, December 11, 2022

Tuesday Morning 13th...Drizzles likely in Mumbai Today (13th)

Sunday morning 

Friday, December 09, 2022

Posted 9th Night:

Un Seasonal Rains Expected in Maharashtra..11th to 15th December.

The effect of the Cyclone Mandous which crossed the T.N.coast will be felt in Maharashtra.

Moderate rainfall is expected in Maharashtra and Goa next week...11th thru 15th.

Konkan /Goa: some moderate showers next week could spell ''damaging'' for the Mango flowering trees.

Mumbai can expect off seasonal rainfall from Monday for 3/4 day. Light to moderate rainfall will ''' clean'' the city of the recent smoggy conditions. 

Pune will see light to moderate rains also next week...Sunday 10th thru 14th......though could be heavy at times. Days will cool down next week to around 23/25c maximum. 

Mahabaleshwar will get rains next week from 12th. Cool days expected around 22/23° and pleasant nights.

Rainfall also expected in Aurangabad regions from 11th to 14th. Some off seasonal rain could be beneficial to the standing crops. Cooler days around 27c.

Gujarat: Light showers in parts of Saurashtra and Surat regions around 15th.

For Press 👇
पोस्ट 9 व्या रात्री: 

महाराष्ट्रात अपेक्षीत अवकाळी पाऊस..११ ते १५ डिसेंबर. तामिळनाडू किनारा ओलांडलेल्या मांडूस चक्रीवादळाचा परिणाम महाराष्ट्रात जाणवणार आहे. पुढील आठवड्यात महाराष्ट्र आणि गोव्यात मध्यम स्वरूपाचा पाऊस अपेक्षित आहे...11 ते 15 तारखेपर्यंत. 

कोकण/गोवा: पुढील आठवड्यात काही हलक्या सरी आंब्याच्या फुलांच्या झाडांसाठी ''नुकसानकारक'' ठरू शकतात. 

सोमवारपासून मुंबईत ३/४ दिवस अवकाळी पावसाची शक्यता आहे. हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस अलीकडच्या धुक्याच्या परिस्थितीत शहर ''''स्वच्छ'' करेल. 

पुण्यात पुढील आठवड्यातही हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस पडेल...रविवार 10 ते 14...... काही वेळा मुसळधार असू शकतो. पुढील आठवड्यात दिवस कमाल 23/25c पर्यंत थंड होतील. 

महाबळेश्वर मध्ये पुढील आठवड्यात 12 तारखेपासून पाऊस पडेल. 22/23° च्या आसपास थंड दिवस आणि सुखद रात्री अपेक्षित आहेत

औरंगाबाद विभागातही 11 ते 14 तारखेपर्यंत पावसाचा अंदाज आहे. काही हंगामी पाऊस उभ्या पिकांसाठी फायदेशीर ठरू शकतो. 27c च्या आसपास थंड दिवस.
Maharashtra Gujarat update for next week by 10 pm here

Cyclone loosing strength on 9 th evening as expected 

Posted 9th Morning:

                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 DEC 2022    Time :   054500 UTC
      Lat :   11:17:18 N     Lon :   80:50:48 E

      CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
     3.2 /  995mb /  49kts  (90 Kmph)

     Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
      3.0     2.7     2.6

 Center Temp : -27.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -44.0C

Slightly weakening before Landfall...Loosing Strength will start from 5 pm IST
to around 80 kmph by 5.30 pm IST (9th) and to around 65 Kmph by 5.30 am IST (10th)

90 KMPH > 80Kmph > 65 Kmph

Thursday, December 08, 2022

8th Night

8th December  Morning 

Cyclone may not be at full strentgh at crossing

Cyclone Mandous located as shown...👇

Current estimated core winds at 75 kmph.

Before/While crossing coast near North T.N. by 9th Night/10th morning, likely to weaken . Dry air is enveloping the system. Crossing time winds will reduce to 55 kmph. 

Wednesday, December 07, 2022

BB 18 Deep Depression 7th Evening


Posted  Wednesday 7th 


Mumbai sees this often in Winters...No Panic

But with some rain expected on Monday, Mumbai will get some cleaner air

Temperature inversion and lack of strong breeze from surface till 700 hPa (around 3 km) results in hazy conditions...which is being observed across different places in the country. It is usually a combination of particulate matter and moisture in the air. 

In cities, the urban pollutants also get trapped, resulting in yellowish/brownish haze.

It's not just Mumbai...

Hope winter sets in by normal standards


Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Posted 6th Night

Weather Outlook till Friday 9th December

Maharashtra outlook: 

Some drop in temperatures likely from tomorrow 7th till Friday 9th December, but rising again after 9th. 

Mumbai: Days will be warm, but can get drier with easterlies reducing the humidity. Nights to be pleasant around 18C-19C. 

Interior konkan could see min temperature dropping till around 14C-15C on Thursday/Friday. 

Pune and Madhya Maharashtra: Cool and dry weather returns for next 3 days. Min temperature may drop till around 12C. 

Parts of Nashik and Ahmednagar districts could see min temperature dropping till 10-11C on 8th/9th December in some parts. 

BB-18 is now a Depression and likely to intensify into a Cyclone by tomorrow. 

BB-18 will head west-northwest and approach close to north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast by 9th December. It may weaken slightly before landfall around 10th, bringing moderate to heavy rain and some gusty winds.  

South interior Karnataka may see some rain over the weekend of 10th-11th. 

Extended outlook: BB-18 may emerge in Arabian Sea and its moisture can reach Maharashtra by weekend. As a result, a significant rise in min temperatures is possible from the weekend, with moisture and clouds of BB-18 spreading over the state. Possibility of rain/thundershowers across most of Maharashtra early next week. More details by weekend. 

Monday, December 05, 2022

Saturday, December 03, 2022

BB 18

A Low expected near the Andaman Islands by  Monday 5th. System can strengthen to a depression or cyclone over the Bay of Bengal before closing in near T.N or South A.P  late next week...8th/9th.

Nights to get warmer in Maharashtra ( and Peninsular) next few nights..

Interesting information Compiled by Vag. Dr.Vineet.

Thursday, December 01, 2022

 1st December

Sensational News....Mumbai was the Hottest City in Entire Sub Continent  on the last day of November!

Mumbai was hottest yesterday because of delay and weak setting of the sea breeze.

Sea breeze, by afternoon, sets in and keeps the temperature under control.

In the case yesterday,  East winds from inland dominated the konkan coast. 

5 out of the ten  hottest are from west coast.


Pakistan 👇

  Posted 13th Night: Outlook for Sunday 14th to Wednesday 17th: An off shore trough along the West Coast is expected to bring good rainfall ...