vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather since 55 years For Any Information taken from here, due credit must be given to Vagaries.
Saturday, March 02, 2019
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Weather outlook till Friday 31st March - As we calculated in mid March after the Heat spell, remaining days of March stayed below 40c in In...
The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat...
south India witness searing temperatures!
50% of India is in grip of drought - specially south east India
While northern India is enjoying rains due to monsoon type of western disturbances including Rajisthan. Is it not climate change pattern -> consecutive northeast monsoon failure and consecutive strong western disturbances ?
For more climate and weather related information please refer my blog below
CREDIT AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEROLOGY
Issued 5 March 2019
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
Tropical Pacific Ocean warms over past fortnight
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have continued to warm. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed over the past fortnight, and have touched on El Niño thresholds. This rapid warming was largely due to a period of weakened trade winds, associated with an active period of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the impacts of tropical cyclone Oma and typhoon Wutip. These trade winds have now returned to near average as the MJO has moved eastwards, suggesting that ocean temperatures may also ease over the next fortnight.
Five of eight climate models indicate the central Pacific is likely to reach near borderline or weak El Niño levels during autumn, with four models remaining above threshold levels into winter. However, El Niño predictions made in early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with some caution.
El Niño typically results in below average rainfall for southern Australia during autumn and for eastern Australia during winter and spring. The March to May climate outlook, which factors in ENSO and other climate influences, indicates autumn is likely to be drier than average for the eastern half of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.
Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 email@example.com
Next update expected on 19 March 2019
My GOD ! Heat wave over South East India - Rayalseema, Anantapur touch 40c + !
With 3 years of successive drought due to failure of NEM worse than desert
south east India unabated heat wave -> AP + TN.... already in drought!
In next 5 -10 years Bangalore will have no WATER ! Already lost 80% of tees and lakes. India most unlivable city! Bangalore is very close to Rayalseema (which is in near desertification).
Insanely comprehensive :)
Thank you so much,
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