Monday, September 30, 2019

Maharashtra Rainfall Toppers from 01-06-2019 to ending till 8.30 am on 30-09-2019
in mms

1. Lamaj, Mahabaleshwar – 10790
2. Tamhini, Mulshi – 9635
3. Amboli, Sawantwadi – 9544
4. Patharpunj, Patan – 9514
5. Shirgaon, Mulshi - 9170
6. Tapola, Mahabaleshwar - 8816 (available till 9-9-19)
7. Jor, Wai – 8728
8. Davdi, Mulshi - 8720
9. Mahabaleshwar – 8521
10. Navaja, Patan - 8128
11. Ambone, Mulshi - 8050
12. Walwan, Mahabaleshwar - 8031
13. Kitwade, Ajara - 7849
14. Dongarwadi, Mulshi – 7790
15. Shirgaon, Bhor - 7696
16. Gaganbawada – 7518

Top 16 list Compilation by Abhijit

Maharashtra's Ghat sections, Mumbai surroundings & Lakes Seasonal Rainfall in map format (June to Sep SWM 2019)

Mumbai MMR seasonal Rainfall map below

Mumbai's water supplying lakes area rainfall (with live water storage on 99%) map below

All above three maps made by Tejas & it's data compiled by Abhijit with Lakes input courtesy Richa Pinto TOI

Highlights of Mumbai Monsoon 2019
1. One of the most delayed Monsoons set after 1974: 25th June. Record 28th June 1959
2. 5 days of Extreme rains in a day, after many years;235 mms June 29th,375 mms July 2nd, 219 mms July 27th 204 mms Aug 4th, 242 mms September 5th.
3.Wettest September ever: 1116 mms (Previous ATR 921 mms 1904) 

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Posted Saturday Afternoon

Posted 28th September Morning:

Prospects of withdrawal of southwest monsoon: 

 There is no indication now of  the establishment of an anticyclone in the lower tropospheric levels over northwestern parts of India (which is an indication of beginning of withdrawal of monsoon) upto 6th October. We see development of an anticyclone on 7th October.
 There is a possibility of an increase in rainfall activity over west Rajasthan, most probably under the influence of a mid-latitude westerly trough (W.D.) in the first week of October. 
However, a revival of the shifting of the jet stream south wards is seen from 30th September.  
Reduction in the moisture content is also likely only after 6th October. 

The UAC mentioned yesterday has shifted North into Saurashtra, and could descend to form a Low.

Thus the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from west Rajasthan is likely to be delayed and could commence only around 7th/8th October. 
North India will see withdrawal after the 8th, and thence Central India.

Mumbai withdrawal could be after 15th October.

Yesterday's rain in cms:
West Rajasthan ( To indicate current rains )
Bihar: ( As per estimate)

EAST UTTAR PRADESH: (As per estimate)

Friday, September 27, 2019

Posted Friday 27th Afternoon:

Heavy Rains lashed Madhya Maharatshtra for the last 3 days...Pune was specially hit with extremely heavy thundershowers. Last 3 posts gives the Pune local rain amounts.
These heavy rains were predicted in Vagaries , as early as 20th Friday (See post of date), and warned regularly in every post since.
As mentioned last week, an UAC formed in Madhya Maharashtra and persisted with convective triggering. 

Pune seasonal total 1070 mms, that is 480 above normal !

Yesterdays Morning amounts in cms for rest of the heavy rainfall towns in Madhya Maharashtra.

An UAC now formed off the Mumbai coast on Thursday, will move Northwards.
Heavy rains likely in Coastal Saurashtra, Gujarat region and some areas of Kutch and South Rajasthan ( Withdrawal delayed again).
Due to the axis position, from UAC eastwards, heavy rains likely this weekend in Bihar, Jharkhand and East U.P.
Modertae showers upto 10-30 mms in Madhya Pradesh the weekend.

Mumbai: Friday and Saturday will see partly cloudy and sunny periods in the day. A thundershower, (Hit /miss chance) likely later in the day in some parts. 
Sunday evening will see a thundershower in some parts of city and surroundings.
Pune: Much reduced rains this weekend for Pune. Cloudy with sunny periods and a few light showers 

Jabalpur: Heavy rains expected in Jabalpur on Friday & Saturday (approx 45-55 mms) and Sunday also around 35 mms.
Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy and light rains in some parts.

Karachi: Partly cloudy, no meaningful rains. 

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Pune has recorded the highest 24hrs rainfall in a decade for the month of September & also for current monsoon season till now!

Pune recorded 87 mm ending 8.30am today. With this achieved 1000 mm mark! Seasonal Rainfall stands on 1018 mms now.

Last night Widespread Thundershowers lashed Pune city & its surroundings. Some rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today (25-9-19):

Pirangut 103
Wakad 97
IITM Pashan 94
Bibwewadi 92
Khed 89
Hadapsar 86
Thergaon 85
Tathawade 81
Chinchwad 71
Bhosari 68
Yerwada 65
Paud 58
Saswad 52
Kothrud 51
Alandi 46
Urlikanchan 45
WadgaonSheri 43
Theur 41
Wagholi 40

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Posted Tuesday 24th Morning:

Pune region lashed by strong Thundershowers overnight:
Rainfall: Talegaon 73 mms, Welu 60 mms, Pune City 56 mms, Chakan 55 mms, Bhosari 54 mms, Hadapsar 51 mms, Chinchwad 42 mms, (All figures from Vagarian Abhishek)

Marathwada: Beed 140 mms, Wadawani 52 mms, Shirur (Latur) 40 mms, Dharmabad (Nanded) 35 mms.

Posted Monday Afternoon:
Cyclone "Hikaa"
Location: 20.3N/65.0E ....Winds (Kmph)70-80 gusting to 90...... Cyclonic Storm
Posted Sunday Night:
Depression AS-2, now located at 20N and 68.4E...Likely to strengthen. 
According to IMD, to strengthen to Cyclone strength.

Observe the raining segment of the system.
 AS-2 will move away from the Indian Coast North/North-Westwards.
Coastal Saurashtra may get moderate rains on Monday. 
More rains to come next week to Saurashtra.
Marathwada & Vidharbh to get good rains Monday thru Wednesday..

Karachi may see light showers on Tuesday.

The 200 level jet stream has formed into a trough like position over the NW India. 
The Divergence in the 200 levels will not encourage the withdrawal for a few more days, even though the Monsoon axis has moved Southwards.
The resultant withdrawal has been thus delayed by a few days, as the needed anti cyclone over the NW India in the upper air level will now form after 3 days. 

Mumbai: Monday will be partly cloudy with sunny periods. Tuesday evening thunder shower possible in some parts of city.
Wednesday will see some increase in rains with thunder.
Pune: Increasing rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Delhi NCR: Warm and partly cloudy next 3 days. Stray shower in some parts. Possible increase by weekend.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Posted Saturday Morning:
AS-2 is now Well Marked Low. Tracking slowly W/NW.
Heavy rains in Coastal Saurashtra.

Mumbai: Saturday /Sunday periods of sunshine with a couple of passing showers.

Pune getting ready for some showers on Tuesday.
Posted Friday Morning:
Rainfall till 8.30 am Friday 20th: Colaba 81 mms, Malabar Hill 57 mms, Nariman Point 50 mms, Vagaries 46 mms, CSMT 40 mms, Worli 35 mms, Santa Cruz 3 mms. 
Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit.
So, Thursday Day/Night rainfall more concentrated in South and Central Mumbai  (40-80 mms).

Localised flooding in Sion, Kurla and Mahalaxmi.

Arabian Sea Low forms as AS-2..expected to track W/NW.

Mumbai: Low will bring strong gusty winds to Mumbai on Friday and Saturday. As the AS-2 moves away, Rainfall quantum decreasing for Mumbai from Saturday afternoon. (Friday fore cast given below & in snippets. (As showers Frequency increased).

Pune rains decreasing from Saturday. Can increase again by Tuesday as UAC expected in Marathwada/South Madhya Maharastra by 25th.

High pressure domination at 850 seen over West Rajasthan/Sindh. other criteria except 200 hp Jet streams fulfilled for withdrawal. Expect to fall in line in 2 days.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Posted Thursday Morning:

The expected overnight Thunder showers on Wednesday Night brought 69 mms in Santa Cruz and 17 mms to Colaba. Vagaries gauge recorded 32 mms.

Rainfall intensity increasing to more frequent showers with heavy falls in some areas on Thursday 19th and Friday 20th. ( 40-80 mms). Localised flooding possible.

No major large scale disruptions...

Low expected in Arabian Sea on 20th:...Good weekend rains for Saurashtra

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

                  COSMIC RAYS AND CLOUDS
            On the 17th of August this year, a few of us from Vagaries had the privilege of visiting the Cloud Physics Laboratory in Mahabaleshwar, on the invitation of IITM, under guidance from Rajesh sir. It was interesting to see the various instruments used to study the formation of clouds and their various attributes using physical and chemical methods.
One of the instruments we saw was a cloud chamber. This is used to analyse the formation of water droplets when a charged particle passes by. One of the reasons for formation of water droplets that eventually collectively form a cloud which produces rain, is cosmic rays.
Cosmic rays are atomic fragments that rain down on Earth from outside the solar system. Their origins are mysterious and some scientists claim supernovas as the point of origin. Recently the Pierre Auger Observatory ( Argentina) studied the trajectory of 30,000 particles.  "It concluded that there is a difference in how frequently these cosmic rays arrive, depending on where you look. While their origins are still nebulous, knowing where to look is the first step in learning where they came from, the researchers said. ("
The Solar activity/cosmic ray link climate modulation system can be summarized by the following chart:

So essentially cosmic rays help in the formation of 1-2nm sized Ions. These coalesce to form 20nm sized and then 50nm sized Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). These lead to further 15micrometer sized cloud droplets.
But what is the actual link between cosmic rays and clouds? Mr. Henrik Svensmark, Danish scientist, recently made a presentation at the 12th International Climate Conference in Munich, where he showed the link between solar activity via cosmic rays and cloud cover and how this cloud cover influences climate.

"Observations and proxy data show that “when you have high cosmic rays, you have a cold climate” because of greater cloud cover. According Svensmark, the net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by up to 30 W/m2.
Clouds are extremely important for the Earth’s energy budget. The net effect is about 20 to 30 watts per square meter.”
That figure is great in terms of impact on climate change, and it is grossly neglected by CO2-fixated climate scientists.("
See the following chart:
His experiments confirm that solar cycles cause energy changes of 1.5W/m2 on the oceans of the world. It has an 11 year cycle that is consistent with climate changes over the Holocene and even going upto a 100 million years.
Another aspect is the link between cosmic rays and solar sunspots. Solar minimum ( when there are zero sunspots on the surface of the sun) causes lower radiation which in turn allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system and reach Earth. This link is visible in the cosmic ray count chart shown below:

Below is the chart of the solar cycle:
You can clearly see a 11 year cycle in the cosmic ray counts, consistent with the sunspot solar cycle of the sun.
As the debate over global warming continues it is important to look at evidence that is emerging in different fields too. The link between cosmic rays and clouds is one such link that needs more study. 

Monday, September 16, 2019

Posted Monday 16th September:

Anti Cyclone High at 850 hp establishing over West Rajasthan by 19th, and BB 11 steering N/NE from North M.P.

Low likely by 19th in North Bay.

Mumbai Santa Cruz has set a new Record for Monsoon Season Rains, after 65 years.:

The Current total rainfall for the Monsoon this year is 3462.8 mms, till 8.30 am 16th September, ...and counting.

The previous highest for Monsoon season was 3452 mms in 1954.
The Annual rainfall record is however at 3784.9 mms.

New September Record also coming:

The wettest September for Santa Cruz station is 920  mms of 1954. 
Currently till 16th Sept 8.30 am..909 mms....

Mumbai: Monday and Tuesday will get occasional heavy showers in parts of city. Wednesday a thunder shower in some parts by evening. Monsoon is here to stay till this month end at least.
Pune : To be ready for soome increase from Wednesday. 
Good rains in Rayalseema;
Massive rains in Kurnool - Kadapa belt. Pennar should see some flow and Somasilla should see increase in inflow.
in mm

Gospadu, Kurnool - 290
Deebaguntla, Kurnool - 199
Mahanandi, Kurnool - 163
MPP Elementry School, Kurnool - 160
Ururi Chintala, Anantapur - 158
Dhodium, Kadapa - 151
Nandyal, Kurnool - 126
Panchayat Office, Kurnool - 123
Gundlakunta, Kadapa - 119
Chagalamarri, Kurnool - 114
Old Bustand Complex, Kurnool - 112
Talamanchi Patnam, Kadapa - 110
MPP School, Kurnool - 110
Raju Palem, Kadapa - 108
YPPM College, Kurnool - 104
Market Yard, Kurnool - 104
Mangapatnam, Kadapa - 103
Nandyala Agro, Kurnool - 103
Alla Gadda, Kurnool - 101
Z.P Boys High School, Kurnool - 101
Muthyalapadu, Kurnool - 100
Water Tank, Kurnool - 100
MPDO Office, Kurnool - 97
Gandlur, Kadapa - 100

Kalukogta, Kurnool - 100

From PJ.

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Lamaj, a station in Satara District of Maharashtra reaches 
10426 mms of rain this monsoon season 
Highest in India 

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Posted Saturday 14th Sept Night:

Recent heavy rains (from a steady BB-11) have boosted the rain amounts and total of Gujarat:

Totals till 14th : Umerpada (till 12th) 3611 mms, Mangrol (till 12th) 2644 mms, Valsad crossing 100": 2587 mms, Baroda 1712, Surat 1396 mms,  Bharuch (till 12th) 1339 mms, Rajkot 1164 mms, Porbundar 923 mms, Naliya (Kutch) 771 mms, Ahmadabad 731 mms,

Rains will reduce, except in Valsad and south Gujarat coast willl precipitate till Monday.

Mumbai: Sunday 15th : Partly cloudy and sunny periods. Few passing showers. 
                Monday 16th : Cloudy with occasional showers.

Pune: Usual cloudy with light rains, but increase from Wednesday.

A very Interesting Article by GSB  on Cosmic Rays and Clouds will be Published on Vagaries on Monday Evening. Not to be missed !

Thursday, September 12, 2019

A) Will Mumbai create September Month new record ..

Mumbai (IMD Scz) has experienced it's 4th wettest September rains (803 mms) within first 12 days of the month , 
1st : 920 mms (1954) , 2nd : 904 mms(1993) , 
3rd: 821 mms(1981) , 4th : 803 mms (2019) and continuing..

With good rains expected during the next 3 days and thundershowers expected during 3rd week of September, it remains to be seen whether Mumbai (IMD Scz) will set a new September monthly rain record..
This July, IMD Scz missed all time July monthly rain record by a mere 4 mms .. (July 2019.. 1465 mms against all time July 2014 record of 1469 mms )
So ,once again this season it has a chance to make the records straight.. 

September 2019 rains in Mumbai region :
South Mumbai - Vagaries (Mahalaxmi): 859 mms 

IMD Scz (Vile Parle) : 803 

Tulshi : 1073
Vihar :941
Thane city : 900 
Vasai: 752
Badlapur: 654

B) INDIA Seasonal Rains 

  • Reports to be confirmed say Lamaj (Mahabaleshwar Taluka) in the Sahyadri range of Maharashtra has received 10,000 mms rains this season topping India ( unconfirmed yet) 
  • Tamhini ghat (100 kms from Mumbai)seasonal is at 8980 mms
  • Matheran seasonal is at 6657 mms

  • Cherrapunji seasonal is 6529 mms (from 1st Jan is 8501 mms)
  • Mawsynram seasonal is 6570 mms

  • Some other regions : 
  • Nepal : Pokhara seasonal ..1797 mms (from 1 Jan is 2560 mms)
  • Sub Himalayan Bengal .. Alipurduar seasonal 3206 mms (from 1 Jan is 4169 mms)
  • South Gujarat .. Umerpada seasonal 3611
  • North Gujarat .. Quant 2100
  • Rajasthan (East) .. Dug 2256
  • Aravalli Range..Mount Abu 1520
  • Satpura Range .. Toranmal 2336
  • Eastern Ghats .. Munchingiputtu 2392
  • Odisha .. Deogaon 2432
  • Madhya Pradesh..Khandwa 1830
  • Himachal (Kangra) .. Dharmsala 1550 
  • Terai .. Kishanganj 1404

C) Seasonal 2019 rains in Mumbai region :
South Mumbai - Vagaries (Mahalaxmi): 3070mms 

IMD Scz (Vile Parle) : 3357 (all time record 3785 mms in 1958)

Tulshi : 4929
Vihar :4050
Thane city : 4260
Panvel : 4407
Vasai: 3192
Badlapur : 5328

IMD SCZ (Vile Parle) -

Vihar and Tulshi (behind the marked hills on the left of the photo)- 

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

South West Monsoon Withdrawal 2019

Posted Wednesday 11th September:

The following is quoted from the criteria for South West Monsoon withdrawal from IMD

Withdrawal of SW Monsoon a) Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September.
b) After 1st September: The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the western parts of NW India.
i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days.
 ii) Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below)
iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries and tephigrams.

Now, out of these criteria, we see the 850 level anticyclone getting (and started ) to  establish.
We also the the BB-11 stuck and persisting around M.P. due to resistance of drier air and upper anticyclone conditions.

The Water Vapor content from the North West areas has also started getting low as per satellite images.

Another important criteria not mentioned here is the reversal to Westerlies of the 200 hp Jet Streams. From the Monsoon Easterlies, the Jet Streams have to become Westerlies starting from the Northern regions of the Sub Continent on the change of season.
As of today, we see the Westerlies coming as South as 30N, an indication of commencement of the reversal process.

The parameters should be full y or properly met, which i calculate to happen in the next 5 days.
Hence, i expect the South West Monsoon to begin Withdrawal from West Rajasthan after 5 days (from 11th).

Decreasing rains in NW India.

 Rains to continue next 3 days in West M.P. Decrease in Saurashtra and remaining Gujarat .

Delhi hot . Mostly dry and light rains on Thursday/Friday in some parts.


After a gap, Mumbai will see increasing rains intensity from Thursday Night. Rains frequency will increase from Thursday Night into Friday and Saturday.
We will get rainfall increasing all along the North Kokan region.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Maharashtra's Ghat sections Top 16 list till date

Maharashtra Rainfall Toppers from 01-06-2019 to ending till 8.30 am on 10-09-2019
in mms

1. Lamaj, Mahabaleshwar – 9647 (available till 7-9-19)
2. Tamhini, Mulshi – 8920
3. Amboli, Sawantwadi – 8906
4. Tapola, Mahabaleshwar - 8816 (available till 9-9-19)
5. Shirgaon, Mulshi - 8620
6. Jor, Wai - 8204
7. Davdi, Mulshi - 8140
8. Patharpunj, Patan – 8134 (available till 6-9-19)
9. Mahabaleshwar – 8005
10. Navaja, Patan - 7667 
11. Kitwade, Ajara - 7560
12. Ambone, Mulshi – 7430
13. Walwan, Mahabaleshwar - 7399
14. Dongarwadi, Mulshi – 7220
15. Shirgaon, Bhor - 7205
16. Gaganbawada - 7020

Top 16 list Compilation by Abhijit

For Comparison:

Amagaon, Belgaum, KA - 8800
Gavali, KA - 7500
Castle Rock, KA - 7413
Hulikal, KA - 6788
Agumbe, KA - 6500
Mawsynram, ML - 6400
Masthikatte, KA - 6397
Cherrapunji, ML - 6312 

KA list input from Vagaries Rainman Pradeep & Naveen

Sunday, September 08, 2019

Heavy Rain lashed Coastal Konkan Region of Maharashtra

And finally we get official data from rainiest place of Maharashtra (also can said from entire country till now) from Mahabaleshwar taluka in Satara!

Lamaj 9647 mms
Tapola 8667 mms

Above Seasonal Rainfall till 6-09-2019

Mumbai MMR Rainfall Map below

Above map made by Tejas & it's data compiled by Abhijit

Some More Mumbai Rains in last 24hr ending 8.30am today(8-9-19):

Dindoshi 207
Worli 184
Wadala 166
Kandivli 164
Parel 158
Matunga 155
Malad 143
Sion 138
Dahisar 137
Kurla 130
Mulund 129
Bhandup 118
Malbar hill 111

Mumbai's nearest hill station Matheran is wettest place this monsoon season than Cherrapunji & Mawsynram in seasonal rains till today!

Seasonal Total Rainfall in mms till date (8-9-19)

Matheran 6457
Mawsynram 6218 (till 6-9-19)
Cherrapunji 6163

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Saturday rainfall in Mumbai in 12 hrs ended 8.30 forecasted
Compiled by Vagarian Abhijit
[07/09, 8:52 p.m.] Abhijit Modak: Mumbai rains in 12hrs till 8.30pm

Bhandup 51
Borivali 114
Byculla 91
Chembur 69
Dahisar 94
Dindoshi 150
Goregaon 117
Kandivli 132
Kurla 74
Lalbaug 82
Malad 111
Malabar hill 88
Matunga 76
Mulund 71
Parel 85
Sion 83
Vikhroli 74
Worli 95
Wadala 85
Dadar 96
Colaba 53 mms scruz 59

Friday, September 06, 2019

Posted Friday evening:

As the BB-11 pulse moves West, we see enhanced heavy rains on Saturday in M.P. and Interior Maharashtra regions. 
Heavy rains in North Kokan, specially from Roha  till Vasai in the North..
Heavy rains expected in Saurashtra .

Mumbai: As the pulse interacts with the strong Westerlies and off shore trough,
Frequent heavy showers on Saturday, covering the region around Mumbai outer townships also. Pockets and some places may exceed 100 mms. 
Sunday too will have showers, but Rain intensity reducing on Sunday.

Pune can also expect frequent showers,  20-25 mms, on Saturday.

Aurangabad and Marathwada can expect good rains on Saturday/Sunday. Aurangabad days will be cool at 24c.

We see the first parameter and indication of Monsoon Withdrawal as the 200 hpa Jet Streams show a Westerly turn over Extreme North India from 10th September. (Not the withdrawal but first indication.)
Had a detailed discussion with fellow Vagarian and co-author Abhijit regarding BB10. 
We thought that BB-10 continues as it is after staying dormant for 5 days. Abhijit feels a new pulse has strengthened it and should be now BB-11. As a new system ...
A technical point as Odisha was dry during BB-10 days.
Hence we keep a watch on BB-11 now.

BB-11 should travel West thru Central India, but not lasting beyond Gujarat.

 14th July Good rains tops Mumbai lakes to 29.7%  ! ( Last year this date 29.7%!) Tamhini tops the list by recording 315mms #Khandala: 264 #...