Vagaries of the Weather ©: April 2026

Thursday, April 30, 2026

April Showers Break Records: Delhi Sees Wettest April in Over a Decade

Delhi Safdarjung recorded the wettest April at least since 2010

Yearwise April rainfall as follows (2010-2026)

30th April :

Hottest April Nights on record in Panjim:

29.2c :29/4/1995

29.0c: 26/4/1973

28.6c: 30/4/2026

28.5c: 24/4/2025

28.4c: 27/4/2026

28.3c: 28/4/2026

28.2c: 30/4/2015

28.1c: 28/4/2014

Warmest night any month: 29.8c: 24/5/2023

Courtesy Vag: Atul Naik (Margao)

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

29th Night Post :

A W.D. has saved and prevented a "Major" heat spell.. In North India.

Check the 29th Day Temperatures below.. 👇

And the anomalies ( Variation from the normal👇

[This was expected.. ( writer only mentioned what he had read earlier)] 👇

29th April Reality vs Rumour – Ground Truth

🌡️ Actual Day Temperatures (29th April)

Core heat belt (Central India / Vidarbha): 42°–45°C

North India plains: 34°–38°C

Northwest (Punjab/Haryana): ~36°C

Peninsular India: 34°–38°C

➡️ Conclusion:

Yes, hot — but typical late-April continental heat, not extreme or unprecedented.

📊 Temperature Anomaly (Departure from Normal)

Max Temperature Anomaly

North India: -2° to -8°C (below normal)

Central India: 0° to +2°C (near normal to slightly above)

East India: -3° to -6°C (below normal)

Min Temperature Anomaly

North India: -2°C (cooler nights)

Central India: +1° to +3°C (slightly warm nights)

➡️ Key Insight:

👉 The “hotbed regions are NOT above normal”

👉 In fact, North India is significantly cooler than normal

⚠️ The Rumour vs Reality

What was circulated

Entire India shown in deep red

Impression: Extreme / unbearable / crisis heat everywhere

Emotional messaging: “Pain in the air”, “no relief”, etc.

What data shows

Mixed pattern:

Cooling in North India

Normal heat in central belt

No widespread extreme anomaly

➡️ Scientific Reality:

This is not a pan-India heatwave scenario

This is seasonal variability with regional contrasts

🧠 Vagaries Insight

“Colour is not climate truth.”

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BTW... Mumbai at 22.30 on 29th (just for information)

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29th April Morning Post

Oh No...The so called "Heat wave" is letting some forecasters go wrong

After our caution in Vagaries..overnight temperatures have stared dripping and into the "below Normal" zone especially in the "hotbed" Regions of North India ! !

See the North India cooling Nights below 👇

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

28th Post

Dispelling "fake news" of impending 1) fatal heat waves to hit India,

2) A"super El Nino"..

A once in 150 years El Niñocoming this summer,

3) Record temperature touching 55°c

4) India is going to have an unlivable summer

5) "This is only April, the hottest months are not yet here"... And more of these alarming and panic news circulating.

>Like we said in the blog on 27th article, there is nothing so vastly unusual...

> Some facts and actual early high temperatures in the past... Showing earliest 40°c in the past... And much earlier than this year.. (Ref : Vagaries Extreme Blog.)

1953 . 28 -Feb Akola 40.0°c , Ahmedabad h28 Feb 40.6 °c, Baroda 28th Feb 40.6°

1963 - 23-Feb Bhubaneshwar 42.7c

1973 28-Feb Ahmadabad, Baroda, Bharuch, Rajkot, Surat.Baroda 41.7c, Bharuch 42.8c

1974. 27th Feb Jalgaon 40°

1976 20- Feb Dohad 42.0c

1981 3-Mar Mumbai Scruz 40.0

February: In exceptionally warm years, parts
of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana can hit 40°C by
last week of February. For instance, in 2023,
several locations in Maharashtra and Gujarat recorded temperatures
close to or at 40°C as early as February 12-16.
Pune recorded it's earliest 40°on 20th March 2006.
New Delhi Palam on 23rd March 2004.
In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the
same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April
2010, Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c,
Simla to 28.2c
on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c.
On 19th April 2017, first ever 50 c
temperature in April in
Asia has been recorded at Larkana (Sindh).
And so on and on... So what's different or unusual in heating this year in 2026 ??
> Super El Niño scare: Current State: ENSO Neutral
Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly
Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)
Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026
So let us actually wait and watch.
Conclusion : 1) Hyper blown up
contravertial situations
2) Things and
Temperatures not going to extreme
unbelievably high
3) We need to be alert
and cautious, not generating panic.

Monday, April 27, 2026

27th Night Post

In foreign and Indian social media and the press there is a lot of discussion about rising temperature in India.

It is noteworthy to understand that through the Indian summer, 40°c or even 44°c is a natural seasonal phase, not an anomaly or an unexpected event.

In this context, experiencing 40–45°C temperatures during April to June across India is not unusual, but rather a direct outcome of seasonal solar movements—something that has always been occurring, and known as "the typical lndian Summer"

Therefore, high temperatures during this period are a " occurrence " not an exception.

In fact, Intense heating over the Sub Continent landmass leads to the formation of The Seasonal low- which is essential for the onset and advancement of the Indian Summer Monsoon.

Summer months on the Sub Continent, April, May, and early June (until the onset of the monsoon) represent the hottest period of the year across large parts of India, especially over interior Maharashtra,Karnataka Telengana and much of Central, Northern, and Eastern regions.

This is not a recent phenomenon—it has been consistently observed for decades, supported by long-term meteorological records.

This year is no exception...in fact the heating starts and fake news of 55°c possible starts...

While this is how week by week the summer has been...see the "below normal" in the anomaly map 👇

Mostly below normal👆

Large Below Normal Areas👇

still showing below normal areas👆

Heating started after 15th April 👇

---------------—------------------——------------------------------------—-----------------------------

Mumbai is currently at 34°c, considered normal. And the real feel factor, (with high humidity at 75%,) is around 38°c.

So, nothing alarming for Mumbai!

Yes, in the first half of April Mumbai showed higher day temperature of 37°c. But March does show high temperatures, even touching 40°c at times.

For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term average maximum temperature during peak For cities like Pune and Nashik, the long-term average maximum temperature during peak summer is around 38°/39°C.

Therefore, temperatures reaching 40°C or slightly higher fall well within the expected natural variability of the regional climate and should not be immediately considered abnormal.

Nagpur, the normal average maximum temperature in May is around 43°C. Hence, temperatures occasionally rising to 45–46°C are also within the natural range of variability for that region.

New Delhi and Rajasthan cities see >44° normally, so same reasoning.

April May & June (till monsoon sets) the peak summer months.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

26th April Post

Indian Sub Continent Heats Up

--------------------------------😓------------------😓-------

Outlook from 27th - 30th April

Mumbai:

Hot but Humid and sweaty temperature at 34°and nights warm at 26°... Real feel temperature 39° and AQI = 150. 😓

Pune: Hot, very hot with Thunder Showers on 27th/28th. Temperature at 40° with nights at 21°

Mahabaleshwar : Hot for a hill station at 32-22° 😓

Goa:Hot humid at 34°

Sambhajinagar : Very hot and sunny.. Temperature at 42°and night at 27°.

Akola : Even hotter at 46°

Bharuch : Hot at 40°..but better on 29th/30th at 37°.

New Delhi: A few stray Dust Storm but hot in the day at 42° and low at 27°

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Monsoon Watch - 2

🌧️ Vagaries Monsoon Watch – 2

23rd April

1. Mascarene Highs

Forming speed is slow and inadequate at present.

The pressure gradient is yet to strengthen sufficiently to support robust cross-equatorial flow.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

2. Seasonal Low & Heat

The seasonal low (~1000 mb) is developing on expected lines for now.

Interior regions have already touched 45°C (17th April), indicating progressive heating.

Indicator: 🟢 Normal

3. Equatorial Winds

With the Mascarene High still weak, the SE winds remain south of the equator and feeble.

Cross-equatorial push is yet to establish, which is crucial for monsoon onset dynamics.

Indcator: -ve

4. Bay Branch

No organized or strong convective systems seen in the Bay yet.

The Bay branch currently lacks momentum and structure.

Indicator: 🔴 -ve

5. ENSO Status (April 2026)

Current State: ENSO Neutral

Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly

Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)

Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026

This evolution is not supportive for a strong early monsoon.

Indicator: 🔴 Strong El Niño tendency

🔎 Vagaries Summary

South West Monsoon likely delayed, especially in the Bay branch.

West Coast arrival currently estimated around 1st week of June.

Overall tilt: Slightly negative as of now.

⚠️ These assessments are based on current parameters and may evolve in the next 10 days.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

19th April Weather Statistics:

Hottest Place in the World:

Akola & Wardha ( Vidarbha): 45°.

10 Hottest of 🇮🇳 India:

City Max & Min temperatures:

Mumbai AP: 34.8°c - 24.1°c

Pune: 40.7°c - 22.4°c

New Delhi Sjung: 40.1°c - 21.7°c

Kolkata AP: 35.8°c - 28.2°c

Chennai ( Meena): 37.9°c - 26.4°c

Ahmedabad: 40.0°c -26.9°c

Highest Minimum Temperature: Raipur :29.9°C

Saturday, April 18, 2026

18th April Post

Pre Monsoon Showers:

Mumbai will be Partly cloudy on Sunday 19th and Monday 20th..Light rain expected on 21st.

Thunderstorms/hailstorm is expected across Maharashtra Goa and N.I. Karnataka from 20 April.

Ghat sections extending into the Madhya Maharashtra region. 🌩️

Pune/ Nasik/Satara and Mahabaleshwar will get evening Thunder showers from 20th Monday.

Hit-or-miss Thunderstorm activity near the interior Konkan ghat base will depend and — some areas in Konkan and Goa may benefit if cells move westward.

Rainfall likely to spread further into Marathwada an Vidarbha next week from 22nd.

A wind convergence is the cause of April showers.

Light showers on 22nd/23rd expected in South Gujarat Coast.

Friday, April 17, 2026

18th April...The Rainfall due to storm

Thursday, April 16, 2026

16th April:

Pune – Large Diurnal Swing Continues

Max: 39.7°C (102°F)
Min: 17.1°C (63°F)
Diurnal Range: 22.6°C (≈ 41°F)

Regional Pattern Strengthens

Location	Max °C	Min °C	Range °C
Ahilya Nagar	41.9	17.5	24.4 ( 45F)
Pune	39.7	17.1	22.6
Nasik	38.8	16.3	22.5

Vagaries Insight

Now clearly a well-defined belt of extreme diurnal variation across:
Nasik – Pune – Ahilya Nagar axis

Signals:

Very dry lower atmosphere
Cloud-free skies dominating
Strong radiational cooling at night
Peak pre-monsoon heating building rapidly

Vagaries Line

“A striking inland signature — blistering afternoons giving way to surprisingly cool mornings, with diurnal ranges crossing 22–24°C across the Maharashtra plateau.”

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

14th April Day Maximum Temperatures

As per Forecast estimate

Panjim 34.0°

New Delhi 38.2°

Pune 39.9°

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Quick Reading Monsoon Watch - 1... 2026👇 ...11th April

Detailed Views👇

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Monsoon Watch -1 2026....11th April

These reports are our personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also our own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries.

The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.
And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments.

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting its share of 2026 monsoon rains !

This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.

Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS DATE.

It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.

Initially, in the first few parts, of this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date.
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet.

There are 2 parts to this article:
A)-This is the Ideal Conditions During SWM Onset in Early June.

and

B) Below indicates the actual situation of the parameters situation today (11th April).

1. Mascarene Highs:

The proper formation of these "High" regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper South East winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular to South West in the Northern Hemisphere.

Indicator: -ve: Formation yet to start:

2. Seasonal low at its peak, in early June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008/1010 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards along the coast and inland.

This year, the heating in the sub continent has started in March, with Heat Waves in Gujarat, Central India and parts of NW India..

The above normal heating in many parts decreased in April.
On an average, March has registered above normal temperature (average day and night) in North, and above normal in Central ad South.

The above normal heating in many parts reduced in April. Awaiting the first 45c 0f this year ...Last year first 45c was on 6th April at Barmer and Jaisalmer.

March Rainfall was +24%

These are a points in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the important pre monsoon weather requirement, the seasonal low.

Indicator: Neutral.

3. Cross Equatorial Winds:

Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region.

Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has not started from below the equator.Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region.
Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has started from below the equator.Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region.
Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has started from below the equator.

Indicator: -ve: No clear Indications of proper winds formation either side of Equator.

4. ENSO: ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Indicator: Heading towards -ve

5. Bay Low

4. Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirement is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necessary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.

Indicator: No immediate Low forming Visible -ve

Summary for estimate of arrival Date:

Parameter 1). Mascarene High: -ve.

Parameter 2). Seasonal Low: Neutral Parameter

Parameter 3) Cross Equatorial winds: -ve

Parameter 4). ENSO: Heading -ve.

Parameter 5) Bay Low: No Low forecasted: -ve

Summary: Tilted towards negative..(Late arrival), as of 11th April. Parameters analysed as of now show slow progress for Monsoon Advance on time.

Parameters can vary rapidly depending on the meteorological changes.

New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 27th April. There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.
MW-2 on 23rd.April.