Dr.Vineet's Page

  This page is totally devoted to Vagarian Vineet..and his research.

Dr. Vineet Kumar Singh is a research scientist at Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University, South Korea with a Ph.D. from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. His expertise is on cyclone and monsoon research.

On this page, you will get updated information on the trending research in the field of atmospheric and ocean science, along with updates on extreme weather events in India and global cyclone activity.

Cyclone Mocha Update

12 May 2023

The latest Satellite estimate of Cyclone Mocha rainfall shows that a very high rain rate of 30mm/hr or higher is occurring in the western and southwestern quadrant of the core of the cyclone. Less rainfall is occurring in the eastern quadrant of the core of the cyclone. This asymmetric rainfall pattern is mainly due to the higher positive vorticity in the western quadrant of the system leading to stronger convergence as compared to the eastern quadrant of the cyclone.

Figure: Wind speed estimate of Cyclone Mocha on 12 May 1:30am IST

As per the latest satellite image (12 May 2023 1:30am IST), the maximum wind speed in the core of the cyclone is 59knots, and higher windspeed is observed in the western quadrant of the cyclone as compared to the eastern quadrant of the cyclone core. Image source: JAXA

Rapid intensification of Cyclone Mocha: Latest JTWC analysis shows that Cyclone Mocha has reached a wind speed of 65 knots (Category 1 cyclone) on 12 May 00 UTC, it has intensified by 30 knots in the last 24hrs.

Latest JTWC forecast indicates that Cyclone Mocha is likely to reach a peak windspeed of 120 knots (Category 4 cyclone). 

IMD-HWRF Rainfall Forecast for Cyclone Mocha

Figure: Forecast of accumulated rainfall (cm) from 11 May 12 UTC to 15 May 15 UTC along the track of Cyclone Mocha.

More rainfall is expected to occur on the cyclone track's left side compared to the cyclone track's right side.

26 April 2023

Unbated record warm SSTs across the globe from over a month

Global SST (60S-60N) continue to run at record values for over a month now.

3 April 2023

Record warm SSTs across the globe

Global SST (60S-60N) are now running above 21C for the first time in the satellite era (since 1982). Data: OISST

18 March 2023

How unusual are March rains?

Attached graph shows all India average rain from 1901-2019. On avg. India get 28.33 mm rain in March. The all India March rainfall si showing a nonsignificant increasing trend of 0.3mm/decade.

This March, India got 6.4mm so far which is 60% below normal. Thus ongoing March rain in India are normal (in fact below normal so far) & nothing to do with climate change. Data:IMD

16 march 2023

For the first time after 1997, the global sea-surface temperature (averaged from 60S - 60N) reaches 21.0°C on March 15, 2023, and is tied with March 6 and 7, 1997 as the highest ever–since records began in 1981. Data: NOAA OISST

12 March 2023

Record MJO activity in phase 7-8 

The MJO has amplified into the Pacific and is moving towards the Americas. This is one of the strongest pulses on record (third highest) into phases 7/8 of the RMM plot (corresponding to the Eastern Pacific), lagging just behind the 2015 event, which triggered a super Niño for now.

For the first time in recorded history, RMM1 of MJO crossed -4.0.

Cyclone Kevin in South Pacific Ocean

4 March 2023

Cyclone Kevin is the first category 4 cyclone of the season in the south Pacific with a maximum wind speed of 135 knots.

Cyclone Freddy in the south Indian Ocean

14 March 2023

Cyclone Freddy has been active for 37 days. It is the longest-lasting cyclone ever globally (since the satellite era).

Top 4 long-lasting cyclones are

1. Freddy (2023): 37 days

2. John (1994): 31 days

3. Leon-Eline (2000): 29 days

4. Ginger (1971): 27.75 days

12 March 2023

Cyclone Freddy has undergone 7 rapid intensifications during its lifetime; this is the highest frequency of rapid intensification by a single cyclone globally till date.

12 March 2023

The accumulated cyclone energy of Cyclone Freddy is 87.0. This is the second-highest accumulated cyclone energy by any cyclone on earth till date. Also, this is the highest accumulated cyclone energy generated by a cyclone in the south Indian Ocean.

Top 10 highest ACE-producing cyclones globally till March 2023

1. Freddy (2023): 87.0 (South Indian Ocean)

2. Ioke (2006): 85.6 (East Pacific, West Pacific)

3. John (1994): 70.6 (East Pacific, West Pacific)

4. Ivan (2004): 70.4 (North Atlantic)

5. Paka (1997): 70.2 (West Pacific)

6. Irma (2017): 64.9 (North Atlantic)

7. Isabel (2003): 63.3 (North Atlantic)

8. Rita (1972): 62.9 (West Pacific)

9. Fico (1978): 62.8 (East Pacific)

10. Fengshen (2002): 61.2 (West Pacific)

Cyclone Freddy most number of hurricane days after 1978

Cyclone Freddy has now produced 18.25 hurricane days (e.g., max sustained winds >=64 kt). That's the most hurricane days by a single hurricane/typhoon/cyclone globally since Fico (1978-eastern North Pacific).

The most #hurricane days on record for a North Atlantic storm is Ginger (1971). Ginger was a hurricane for a whopping 19 days and 12 hours.

Cyclone Freddy crossed the entire south Indian Ocean; this is only the fourth cyclone in recorded history to cross the entire south Indian Ocean.

15 March 2023
Top 11 highest Accumulated cyclone energy years in the south Indian Ocean since 1980

1. 1994: 230.5
2. 2019: 220.5
3. 1997: 213.3
4. 1996: 201.5
5. 2000: 197.6
6. 1980: 188.1
7. 2004: 178.4
8. 2002: 175.5
9. 1989: 172.1
10. 2023: 158.3
11. 2003: 157.6

15 March 2023

The accumulated cyclone energy so far (till 15 March) in 2023 in the south Indian Ocean is 158.3 which is 58.1 above normal and is the second-highest accumulated cyclone energy in the basin after the year 2004.
The total number of major hurricane days so far in this season in the south Indian Ocean is 14.25 and is the highest after 2004.

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