Monday, May 31, 2021

RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1-3-2021 TO 31-5-2021

 



Mumbai scruz... 48.2 mms in 12 hrs from 8.30 am on 31st....

Mumbai pre Monsoon showers on 31st May... Rainfall from 8.30 to 2.30.

Andheri (W) 40.3

Andheri (E) 36.3

Milan subway 24.1

Ram Mandir 21

Goregaon 18

Bhandup 15.2

Vikhroli 11.1

Ghatkopar 6.6

Bandra 4.6

Chembur 3

Kurla 1.5

Mulund 1.3

Sunday, May 30, 2021


Posted 30th night

On seeing this UAC , Monsoon progress seems likely in 48 hrs





Posted 30th May 2021:

Weather for Aurangabad and Marathwada Farmers for 4 days from 30th May:

Pre Monsoon  Thunder Showers are expected in Aurangabad Region and Marathwada for the next 4 days. These are not the Monsoon , but only pre monsoon. Will benefit soil conditions for sowing. Sowing to be done after proper Monsoon is set..maybe around mid June.

---------------------------------------------------औरंगाबाद आणि मराठवाडा येथील 30 मे पासून 4 दिवस हवामान:

विवार, 30 मे 2021

30 मे 2021 रोजी पोस्ट केलेले:

औरंगाबाद आणि मराठवाडा येथील 30 मे पासून 4 दिवस हवामान:

औरंगाबाद विभाग आणि मराठवाड्यात पुढील चार दिवस पूर्व मान्सून थंडर सरी बरसण्याची शक्यता आहे. हे मान्सून नसून केवळ मान्सूनपूर्व असतात. पेरणीसाठी मातीच्या परिस्थितीचा फायदा होईल. योग्य पावसाळा तयार झाल्यावर पेरणी करा. जूनच्या मध्यभागी.


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With pre monsoon rainfall and lower and upper winds fulfilling the conditions slowly, a weak monsoon current is entering Kerala next 48 hrs...around 1st June.(Delayed by a few days due to non fulfilling parameters

Below  is the rainfall in Kerala as on 30th morning.




Friday, May 28, 2021

South West Monsoon weak current set to move into Kerala by 30th

 

Posted 28th afternoon 
SWM has moved  into Sri Lanka..and set to advance as a weak current into Kerala by 30th..Monsoon progress North wards into Coastal Karnataka/Goa will be around 4th or 5th June.

We see some pre monsoon rainfall currently occurring Kerala 
Last readings and map shown below 




Mumbai: Now hot,humid and stuffy, waiting for the rains !Look at the high minimum ( Nights) temperatures in the Konkan and Mumbai.. Unbearable with high humidity. Nights  at an unbearable  29c.


Outlook next 4 days till 1st June.
Mumbai will be same with no change. Maybe light overnight drizzling from a passing cloud, that too in some parts of city. 
Pre monsoon  showers or thundershowers  after 3rd/4th June. Proper Monsoon to set around 10th to 13th June. 

Pune: Thundery clouds development  possible  in late afternoon/evening. 

Thursday, May 27, 2021

 Extremely heavy rain continues in Odisha for the 3rd day due to Cyclone Yaas.Rainfall ending at 8.30am today, 27th....MIN 100mm

Compiled by Vagarian Mitan ( Bhuvaneshwar) 

Bhanjabasa(Mayurbhanj)-383mm

Ramatirtha(Mayurbhanj)-358mm

Bareipani(Mayurbhanj)-332mm

Kabatghai(Mayurbhanj)-307mm

Nawana North(Mayurbhanj)-279mm

Joda(Keonjhar)-269mm

Josipur (Mayurbhanj)-255mm

Kulipal(Mayurbhanj)-222mm

Kendumundi(Mayurbhanj)-219mm

Lathkatha(Sundargarh)-208mm

Champua(Keonjhar)-205mm

Keonjhargarh (Keonjhar)-198mm

Panposh(Sundargarh)-197mm

Basudevpur (Bhadrak)-195mm

Thakurmunda(Mayurbhanj)-190mm

UBK(Mayurbhanj)-182mm

Chandikhol(Jajpur)-175mm

Jenabil(Mayurbhanj)-171mm

Karanjia(Mayurbhanj)-168mm

Chahala(Mayurbhanj)-166mm

Podadiha(Mayurbhanj)-154mm

Rajgangapur(Sundergarh)-141mm

Nawana south(Mayurbhanj)-140mm

Sawampatna(Keonjhar)-138mm

Deoghar (Deoghar)-131mm

Satkosia(Mayurbhanj)-124mm

Tiring(Mahurbhanj)-121mm

Udala(Mahurbhaj)-113mm

Barkot(Deogarh)-113mm

Gurundia(Sundergarh)-113mm

Hatadihi(Keonjhar)-112mm

Tihidi(Bhadrak)-112mm

Pallahra(Anugul)-112mm

Ghatogaon (Keonjhar)-103mm

Luhunipara(Sundergarh)-102mm

Sarpada(Keonjhar)-100mm

Soro(Baleshwar)-100mm

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Posted 26th May night:

Yaas weakening fast and moving NW into Jharkhand/Bihar and East U.P...

Once cyclone Yaas dissipates, which is expected around May 28, the ocean and atmospheric conditions would once again normalise and favor the advancement of the monsoon

Now, let's shift our attention to the SWM....Vagaries had given the date of advancement to Kerala ( as a weak current) by 26th..so where are we now  ?

Monsoon has moved upto Maldives and South Sri Lanka.

Now, seeing the OLR box ( 5N - 10N and 70E- 75 E) we see favorable values of below 200 wm2



The upper winds, upto 600 hpa levels also tend to become Westerly in 2 days.




Judging by this, we feel the SWM will advance to Kerala, as a weak current on 27th May

Will remain weak and stagnant till 1st June at least.  Giving a few days for the off shore trough to stabilize,and the pressure gradient to establish.

Forecast for 27th Thursday, 28th Friday, 29th Saturday.

Mumbai: Proper Monsoon still 12- 15 days away..around 8th-10th June. But pre monsoon  showers may start by 4th June..+- 2 days.

Warm and humid next few days.

Pune: Partly cloudy. A mild shower in some parts on 28TH/29TH possible.

Monsoon proper expected after 8th June. 

Goa: As the  off shore trough forms, Goa  will start with pre monsoon from around 29th or 30th.

 Posted 26th May

Cyclone Yaas made landfall today between 9:30am-12 noon with a wind speed of 130-140 kmph at the north Odisha coast as Cat 1..and on estimated track


Rainfall in Odisha till 8:30 am

Kusumi: 300 mm

Chandbali: 288 mm

Rajnagar: 275 mm

Ersama: 271 mm

Rajkanika: 251 mm

Tihidi: 242 mm

Kujang: 226 mm

Paradip: 200 mm

This is only the fourth pre-monsoon cyclone in the satellite era (1980 onwards) and second pre-monsoon cyclone after 1989 to hit Odisha coast with at least severe cyclonic storm strength (winds greater than 48 knots).

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Posted 25th night

Yaas... Located as shown..satellite image below. Estimated 130-140 kmph winds.. Cat 1.

Crossing near Balasore/ West Bengal border around pre noon on 26th.Maybe peaking at 135-145 kmph. 



South West Monsoon advanced into the South Arabian Sea and Sri Lanka.. 



Monday, May 24, 2021

Will it reach cat 2/3 ?

Posted 24th 12 midnight

Yaas position at 17N and 89 E. 

But study the map below..Seems Might Cross as Cat 1




Posted 24th May...1 pm

BB-3, expressed as a Depression till yesterday, now satellite images showing tightening of the pressure around the centre.. Thus rapidly formed into a Cyclone "Yaas" with estimated core pressure at 990 mb and core winds estimated at 65-75 kmph.

Tracking towards the Odisha/West Bengal border line....as Cat 2/3




Monday thru Thursday cumulative rainfall expected in 

Balasore 300-350mms, Bhubaneshwar 275-325 mms....can vary depending on the intensifying of the Cyclone.

Kolkata can expect 80-100 mms in the time frame.

Mumbai: No cyclone threat to Mumbai. Partly cloudy weather for 24th -27th  with light drizzles in some parts of city ..very scattered.

Pune: Partly cloudy with chances of thundery development in some parts of Pune on Monday/Tuesday.

Sunday, May 23, 2021

Continue from previous post

See the TPW image, clear to meteorologists.. System strengthening rapidly in next 12 to 24 hrs to cyclone " Yaas"



Track... Vagaries estimate... From 24th tracking North/North-West. Heading for landfall between Baleswar (Odisha) and Digha (W.B.).. On 26th.

Posted 23rd 9 pm

BB 3, Depression as shown. Estimated winds at 45 -55 kmph.Heading to be a cyclone "Yaas" In next stage by early 25th. Towards West Bengal.

Now onwards the rainfall will be concentrated in the West, Southwest and South/South-West sectors of the System. 

Till landfall on 26th...



 Posted 23rd May 1 pm:






Saturday, May 22, 2021

 Posted 22nd at 2 pm IST

South West Monsoon has advanced into Andaman Islands. The monsoon touches South Sri Lanka. 


The Low BB 1 has formed in the eastern Bay off South West Myanmar. 

Now likely to intensify to cyclone stage in 3 days. 

Friday, May 21, 2021

Posted 21st May 1 pm :

Low Pressure will form in the Bay location 15N and 95E off SW coast of Myanmar.

Due to conducive  atmosphere, where the TCHP , Water heat content, is more than 100kg/cm2 in major portions of Bay (except extreme North Bay), very rapid development to a cyclone stage  ( Cat 2/3 possible) within 2-3 days from forming. 

Seeing the above conditions, Cyclone (Yaas) may hit Odisha/West Bengal coast around 25th/26th May.

South West Monsoon will advance into South Andamans by 22nd May.

Monsoon Likely in Kerala ,as a weak current around 26th...Needs to be monitored.

Weekend Weather:

(*Real feel of any temperature in the forecast means how the temperature will feel to your body. Basically, temperatures that thermometers record and the that our body feels can be different under wind/humidity/cloud conditions etc).

Mumbai ; Sunny with patchy clouds and humid, feeling discomfort and sweaty.

. Real feel* 37/38c.

Pune: Partly cloudy with hot day around 37c , with real feel* around 37c. Slight drizzle possible in patches or parts of Pune.

Lonavala: Getting cloudy by afternoon /evening. and warm days around 34c. Nights around 22/23c.

 Goa: Partly cloudy with humidity at 85-90%. Real feel* will be 38c.

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The chief amount of rainfall from remnants of Tauktae:

The chief amount of rainfall 

Uttarakhand: Nainital-117.0; Mussoorie 103.0; Mukteshwar-85.0; Haldwan 83.

 Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi: Jhajjar-117.0; Gurgaon-115.0; Mewat-84.0; Faridabad -80, Narnaul-77.0 

West Uttar Pradesh: Bareilly 146.0; Meerut-85.9; Aligarh-71.6; Muzzafarnagar 69.

 East Uttar Pradesh: Gorakhpur 68.0 ,Varanasi-82.8; Sultanpur-73.4; Mirzapur 72

West Rajasthan: Nagaur-68.0 o 

East Rajasthan: Dholpur-103.0; Alwar-90.0; Jaipur-80.0; Dausa-70.0; Sikar- 70.  

(Source IMD)

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

 North India Today.. By Navdeep Dahiya




See Gujarat Rain Amounts from Tauktae below this article.. Posted 

Posted 19th May afternoon:

Mumbai: The "Post Cyclone" passing showers continue even on the 19th Wednesday. These are due to the strong South Westerly winds still lashing the West Coast , heading towards the System, now as a Depression over West M.P....

The passing showers will continue till the erstwhile system weakens...maybe another day. 

But in patches, Mumbai one next day will have a few passing showers with bright sunny periods. Getting hotter.

This is not the Monsoon  !

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Post Cyclone showers also continue in some patches of Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and N.I. and Coastal Karnataka.

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Bay of Bengal: Around 21st May, A Low pressure can form in the North- East Bay off the Myanmar coast at location at 15N , 95E..SW off Yangon. The will strengthen and move in days to come and move towards Bangladesh.

May cross as a Deep Depression/ Cyclone around 25th/26th.. 

This will attract good strong SW winds towards the system in the Bay from Below Sri Lanka (Bay Branch of Monsoon Cross Equatorial  Winds). As seen in IMD Forecast Map.


The  South West Monsoon will advance into the Andaman Islands on around 23rd May.

As regards the West Coast, stronger SW winds will develop off Kerala coast and CAN  bring in a feeble current of the South West Monsoon around 27th/28th May...Needs Follow up though  !

---------------+-+---+-+----------------+----++-+---+

Cumulative rainfall of Gujarat and Daman for the dates 17th and 18th May 2021 from the cyclone Tauktae 

Compiled by Vag. Shitij (Surat) 

1. Gir Gadhada (Somnath) 375 

2. Una (Somnath) 347 mm

3. Umergam (Valsad) 332 mm

4. Daman 290 mm

5. Bhavnagar 244 mm

6. Palitana (Bhavnagar) 240 

7. Bagasra (Amreli) 235 mm

8. Nadiad (Kheda) 232 mm

9. Pardi (Valsad) 183 mm

10. Savarkundla (Amreli) 171

11. Mahuva (Bhavnagar) 170

12. Valsad 169 mm

13. Olpad (Surat) 168 mm

14. Amreli 163 mm 

15. Surat IMD 135 mm

16. Navsari 130 mm



Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Record Mumbai Rainfall as on 18th morning.. Tauktae tail wags!


From Vagaries' Archives:
Rain Fury in Mumbai on 17th May 2021


Rainfall figures of MMR and nearby regions ending at 8:30am on 18/05/2021 are as follows:-

1.Juhu:330mms
2.Malad:321mms
3.Kandivali West:318mms
4.Borivali West:313mms
5.Vakola:307mms
6.Ram Mandir:303mms
7.Andheri:292mms
8.Dahisar:289mms
9.Dahanu:283mms
10.Goregaon West:279mms
11.Grant Road:273mms
11a Dadar (w) (Vag Pvt) 272 mms
12.Century Bazaar:249mms
13.Vile Parle West:241mms
14.Worli:238mms
15.Santacruz IMD:230mms
16.Mira Road:224mms
17.CSTM:218mms
18.Colaba IMD:208mms
19.Thane:206mms
20.Byculla:199mms
21.Cuff Parade:189mms
22.Bandra West,Bhendi Bazaar:186mms
23.Sandhurst Road:181mms
24.Nariman Point:178mms
25.Masjid Bunder:171mms
26.Kings Circle:166mms
27.Marol:161mms
28.GTB rly Stn,Sion Koliwada:152mms
29.Parel:139mms
30.Lalbaug:133mms
31.Vikhroli:128mms
32.Bhandup,Reay Road,Kasarvadavali:122mms
33 Ghatkopar East,Wadala:116mms
34.Chembur:97mms
35.Airoli:84mms
36.Ghansoli:83mms
37.Mumbra:81mms

Data Source:IMD,MCGM & IITM
Data compiled by:Vag Abhishek Apte

Monday, May 17, 2021

 Posted May 17th..9.45 pm IST

Finally.. "Tauktae" Makes Landfall near Jafarabad ( Amreli Dist) Gujarat. 

(See Mumbai Monday Rainfall figures below




Unexpectedly strong tail of the Gecko.. ( Actual Meaning of Tauktae) lashes Mumbai. 
Beyond anticipated rainfall creates May one day record.
Strong gusts at 110 kmph at Colaba and Scruz wind gusts 96 kmph!


Some rainfall figures of MMR and nearby regions from 8:30am-8:30pm on 17/05/2021 are as follows:-

1.Juhu:300mms
2.Vakola:281mms
3.Goregaon, Andheri:260mms
4.Ram Mandir:259mms
5.Dadar West(Vagarian Pvt Reading):251mms
6.Malad:248mms
7.Kandivali West:245mms
8.Century Bazaar:244mms
9.Elphinston Road:235mms
10.Vile Parle West:216mms
11.Santacruz IMD:215mms
12.Borivali West:214mms
13.CSTM:213mms
14.Dahisar:196mms
15.Thane:195mms
16.Colaba:192mms
17.Mira Road:189mms
18.Bhendi Bazaar:185mms
19.Sandhurst Road:172mms
20.Bandra West:171mms
21.GTB rly Stn:137mms
22.Bhandup,Byculla:113mms
23.Kasarvadavali:111mms
24.Ghatkopar:101mms
25.Chembur:95mms

Data Source: IMD & MCGM, Data Compliled by: Vag Abhishek Apte

Posted 3,45 pm...More Stormy weather for Mumbai by evening  ? 
Huge outer band develops in South West. 



 

 Posted Monday  17th 11.30am

The Cyclone is currently  160 kms .. West/ North-West off Mumbai..Cyclone  will move away NW from Mumbai slowly. By late afternoon we may see some decrease in intensity. 



Monday  morning 3 hrs rainfall till 11  am in Mumbai 

Dadar (Pvt) 72mms, Vagaries club 56 mms, Nariman Point  56 mms, BMC office 53 mms, many places between  10 to 30 mms







Sunday, May 16, 2021

 Some interesting facts of this cyclone compiled by Vagarian Vineet

For the first time in the last 40 years, 4 consecutive years (2018, 2019,2020 and 2021)  a pre-monsoon cyclone in the Arabian Sea. Data from: IMD Cyclone e-atlas

Cyclone Tauktae intensified by 45 knots in the last 24 hrs (16 May 0530 IST to 17 May 00 IST). This is the most rapid 24 hrs intensification by a cyclone in May month in the Arabian Sea after 1999. Data from: JTWC

Cyclone Tauktae current wind speed is 120 knots (as per JTWC estimates), this is now the strongest pre-monsoon Arabian Sea cyclone after 2010 and third strongest pre-monsoon Arabian Sea cyclone in the satellite era (1982 onwards): Data from JTWC

Cyclone Tauktae intensified from category 1 to category 4 cyclone in just 24 hrs.

First time after 1976 and only the second time since 1900, a cyclone in May going to hit Gujarat coast with wind speed greater than 35 knots. Data from: IMD Cyclone e-Atlas


Some more Interesting Facts compiled by Vagarian Vineet.. Only in Vagaries

 This is the third cyclone in last 4 years in the Arabian sea in pre-monsoon season that has attained 100knots windspeed

 Last 24hrs 5.30 pm to 5.30 pm Sunday..intensification now : 40 knots

This is the most intense intensification by a cyclone in May month in the Arabian sea after 1999 

Another fact not mentioned 

First time in last 40 years, 4th consecutive year 2018,2019,2020,2021, Arabian sa hosted a cyclone in the premonsoon season.


Posted Sunday 16th at 11.30 pm

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm  "Tauktae" moved N/ÑW and located centre at 17.2 N and 72.3E. 220 kms South/South West off Mumbai. 


Estimated core pressure 970mb, estmated core winds 140 to 150kmph.

Central temperature rises further to - 10c

Track ,maintained, and Tauktae now heading towards Saurastra Coast...likely  to hit landfall around Porbandar on 18th morning.

Crossing through  the Kathiawar Peninsula  towards Ahmedabad as a Depression (19th) and bringing very heavy rains to Saurashtra on 18th.

Kathiawar, Porbandar and Rajkot will get heavy  rains from Monday evening & on Tuesday  ,about 125 to 150.mms mms.

Frequent showers for Ahmedabad /Surat and Bharuch from Tuesday...about 20 to 35 mms.

Then curving NE towards South Rajasthan  as a Low.

No effect  on  Sindh Coast.

Mumbai: Hot and cloudy  day on Sunday,with light drizzle in some parts.

As the cyclone passes by Mumbai in the  sea on Monday, frequent showers on Monday ( 45 to 55 mms) with gusty winds at 40 to 50 kmph. Rains decrease from Tuesday. 

Pune..light to moderately rainfall on Monday  and decrease from Tuesday. 

 

Pic by Paulomi


Posted 16thMay 1pm

" Tauktae" Now slightly NW off Goa as seen in noon Doppler

Estimated core Pressure 972 mb and estimated winds at centre 140-150 kmph. 

Centre temperatures now -4. 3c..eye.

Tracking NW and away from coast. ( now hugging the Goa coast) 

Heading towards between Porbandar-Okha on Saurashtra Coast. 

Heavy rains in Saurastra ( West) on Tuesday 18th.

Entire North Konkan will be getting  Rainfall  and gusty winds on 17th Monday..

Mumbai : City had light drizzle on Saturday night.. 4.6 mms. And, another day at 37.4c, (4c above  normal)...and desert like dry humidity ( for a coastal city) of only 29% !

Cyclone by passing Mumbai in the Sea.Only the outer peripheral effects on Mumbai. 

Sunday evening starts getting more windy and showers increasing by night.

Sunday cloudy and windy, with showers in the evening. Rainfall and winds increasing by night and overnight winds around 45-55 kmph. Monday also windy and gusty, with rain showers. Sunday & Monday cumulative rainfall 50-70 mms.

Cloudy and windy Monday  with gusty winds upto  50 to 70 kmph..

Pune: Very windy and occasionally  raining on Sunday  & Monday. 

--_---------------------------------+


Tauktae Rainfall figures of Karnataka till 8:30am on 16/05/2021 are as follows(150mms+ only):-


1.Nada(Udupi):385mms

2.Koni(Udupi):335mms

3.Kambadkone(Udupi):314mms

4.Kirimanjeshawara(Udupi):307mms

5.Alur(Udupi):286mms

6.Kaduru(Udupi):255mms

7.Thagarasi(Udupi):238mms

8.Barkur(Udupi):213mms

9.Kandavare(Udupi):205mms

10.Kudarur(Shivmogga):203mms

11.Irodi(Udupi):199mms

12.Kodi(Udupi):191mms

13.Chitturu(Udupi):189mms

14.Aryapu(Dakshina Kannada):186mms

15.Kalbhag(Uttara Kannada):184mms

16.Bettampady(Dakshina Kannada):180mms

17.Kadra(Uttara Kannada):178mms

18.Narimogaru(Dakshina Kannada):171mms

19.Bhagamandala(Kodagu):168mms

20.Balnadu(Dakshina Kannada):164mms

21.BRAHMAWAR(Udupi):159mms

22.Manki(Uttara Kannada):156mms

23.Kaniyooru(Dakshina Kannada):152mms

24.Navunda(Udupi):151mms

25.Kadirudyavara(Dakshina Kannada):150mms

Rainfall figures of Kerala till 8:30am on 16/05/2021 are as follows(150mms+ only):-


1.Mahe(Puducherry):237mms

2.Vadakara(Kozhikode):233mms

3.Kakkayam(Kozhikode):216mms

4.Vythiri(Wayanad):210mms

5.Mattanur(Kannur):199mms

6.Peruvannamuzi(Kozhikode):191mms

7.Taliaparamba(Kannur):170mms

8.Thalaserry(Kannur):169mms

9.Irikkur(Kannur):161mms

10.Quilandy(Kozhikode):156mms

11.Pilicode(Kasaragod):151mms

Compiled by Vagarian Abhishek

Saturday, May 15, 2021

 Posted 10.30pm IST 15th

Severe Cyclonic Storm " Tauktae" On Saturday Night


Time : 9.30 IST
Estimated core pressure: 985 mb
Estimated Winds: 100- 110 kmph

Central Cloud Temp: -81c

The TPW ( for future strength) 


Track forecast maintained 



 Posted 15th May 1 pm:


Complicated and Unusual Imagery of Cyclone..Like Not seen by me in last 5 decades.

Track expected maintained as yesterday, along coast and then N/NW on reaching 15N..Heading towards Kutch crossing near Okha.

Due to the reasons explained in below post (at 11.30 pm 14th) (VWS , upper divergence in SW etc), The Cyclone will track more away from the coast and head towards Okha.. Hence coastal precipitation along Maharashtra and South Gujarat coast will be less than expected .

Mumbai: Windy weather from Saturday Evening through Monday ...35-50 kmph. The Cyclone will move away from Mumbai when by passing. Hence reduced (than expected earlier) amounts of rain on Sunday and Monday.

Pune: Very windy , but light rains , except some isolated moderate falls on Saturday/Sunday and Monday.
Goa: 
Heavy thunder showers on Friday night (Total Rainfall from March:Mapusa 90 mms, 84mms in Ela old. Sanguem 78  mms, 68 mms  Margao & Mormugao, , Quepem 60 mms,Canacona 53 mms, Panaji 33 mms) 
Showers windy (40 kmph) also on Saturday , ( avg 50 mms) Winds and rains reducing from sunday evening/Monday.


Friday, May 14, 2021

Posted 14th May 11.45 pm IST



The latest image of Cyclone "Tauktae" 
This type of an unorganized cyclone  (at this stage of initial formation) has been noticed by me after along time..do not remember  when in last  5 decades.
Shows more convective clouding and organized bands in the West. 
Reason...Low level convergence in the Southwest of the center and there is an Easterly Shear delaying the convection.
Upper 
Steering ridge at 12.5N.
Recently convection has built-up to the  North of the cyclone.
Shown the TPW image earlier which shows good intensification chances.
Hoping to see a proper cyclonic formation, without the dominating wind Shear.(VWS 25-30 knots)

 



Posted 14th May 12.30 pm

AS 1, a Depression, is located off North  Kerala coast. Estimated core pressure shows a fall to 998mb. However estimated wind speed around 20-30 kmph.

Strengthening  to Deep Depression and finally Cyclone..Tauktae. 

Track will be North/North - North West initially till reaching off Goa Coast (around 16th).Then tracking North -West heading towards West Saurashtra  Coast near  Okha (18th). Then towards Kutch border. 

Heavy rainfall  in Kerala and Coastal  Karnataka  next 2 days.

Heavy rains for Goa from 15th thru 18th...125-145 mms cumulative. 

Heavy rains  for coastal  Saurastra 17th to 18th...Porbandar to Okha can get  70-80 mms cumulative. Heavy rainfall  for Kutch (18th).

Surat will get Moderate  showers on 17th.

Mumbai..Monsoonish Weekend...Sunday Gusty winds (35-45 kmph) with moderately  heavy rain  on Sunday 16th and 17th. Around 55 -60 mms cumulative. 

Cyclone by passing Mumbai ,so no direct  hit.

Pune.. Monsoonish..light to moderate rainfall  on 15th,16th,17th.very windy.Cooler days  at around 30-31c.

Today's Kerala  AWS rainfall 




Thursday, May 13, 2021

 Posted 13th May 1.30 pm

Repeating, A Well Marked Low will form off Kerala coast  in next 24 hrs.

The effective  Monsoon type rainfall has already  commenced in Kerala as massive  convection is seen. Pradeep has put  up the rainfall figures below.

Very heavy rains expeceted  in Kerala  and South Karnataka  Coast on 14th.

The system  will intensify to Depression in next 24hrs ( 15th) and soon  to Cyclone  " TAUKTAE" by 17th or 18th.

From tomorrow,  System  AS1 Will move along the coastal belt and then from 17th , track North/North West after reaching Goa. Going away from coast after 17th.

Will ,as per  conditions seen now, head towards the Kutch International  Border. As shown in map yesterday. 

Rainfall in  the Western  Saurashtra  Region when the cyclonic approaches the region..17th & 18th.

Mumbai,though no direct hit, will be very windy with gusty winds and rain showers on Sunday 16th and Monday 17th.

Pune, light to moderate rainfall on Saturday 15th and Sunday  16th. Strong gusty winds .

Very heavy rains in Goa on 15th and very  windy with cyclonic winds.

Monitoring AS 1 is on.. and major deflection or any variation will be updated.


Widespread monsoon like rainfall in Kerala and Kanyakumari on the last 2 days

 


 

 

 


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