Mumbai March Analysis by Rohit Aroskar on Stats and Analysis Page

How Cold Europe Was in March 2013...check here (Jim's Report)

Seems the further east ovr Europe, the more severe March 13 has been. Coldest for 51 yrs (UK), coldest in 60 yrs (Moscow). US can't compete.
The last time March was colder than December, January and February in Britain was back in 1975 according to the Met Office.
UK Experiences Coldest Easter Sunday On Record...Mark's Reports

Just up.. Next few Days  Sub-Continent Forecast and March Review on Current Weather Page..

Deadly floods hit Mauritius capital Port Louis on Saturday: The island's metereologists said 152mm (6in) of rain fell in less than an hour, 70mm less than the March average.

A related article in SANDRP
South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People is interesting and reproduced with their permission here..worth reading...

What is a Drought Year ? With 7.6% Deficient (All India), would 2012 be termed as a drought Year ?

Droughts in India has resulted in tens of millions of deaths over the course of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries. Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the Monsoons in India: a favorable southwest summer monsoon is critical in securing water for irrigating Indian crops. 
Some of the major drought-prone regions are southern and eastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Gujarat, Bengal, Bihar and Rajasthan.

But why has this been repeatedly happening since the last 200 years? 200 years is a long enough period given to overcome the situation and prevent the people's suffering by providing adequate means and inter regional water storage and transfer.

And knowing the weather, it is almost natural, that either of the above mentioned regions is bound to get below normal deficient rainfall in any year. Do we literally have to wait for a surplus rainfall in each and every region of the country. If yes, than thats poor management and governance of water resources.  
We should be capable with providing the shortfall by the excess available in some other region. Nature's bounty is always merciful on us, but are we ever ready? 
Do we know how to store and preserve water, rather than just let it drain in the two seas on either side. Most of the SWM rains drain off in the seas.

Is India really water starved ? This article ( July 2012) published in Vagaries is most apt and suited for the topic under discussion....and the article ended with ..otherwise .....Otherwise we see the same old story in parts of the country today.  


Then what is a drought Year ?
Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 subdivisions constituting 67.3% of the total area of the country received excess/normal season rainfall and the remaining 13 subdivisions (32.7% of the total area of the country) received deficient season rainfall.

To really analyse the "drought" situation this year, let us take into consideration of the five Peninsula  states... TN, Kerala, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which, the officials tell us are the worst effected...


Karnataka: End Season, Coastal Karnatak was 0%, N.I.Karnataka was -36% and S.I.Karnataka was -23%.
Average deficiency for the state: -19.6%.

Maharashtra: End Season: Konkan -3%, Madhya Maharashtra -25%, Marathwada -33% and Vidharbha +8%.
Average State deficiency: -17.6%

Gujarat: Saurashtra and Kutch:-34%, Gujarat Region: -28%.
Average State deficiency: -31%.

Tamil Nadu State Deficiency: -23%. And Kerala -24%.

It can be noticed, from the above figures and map, that the drought regions are all "linked " to each other North/South. Providing and implementing the waters from the coastal regions to the interiors would have been a boon and would have mitigated the losses.

The severest amongst them is Gujarat. However, Gujarat has somewhat marginally lessened the woes by diverting the river waters to water starved Saurashtra and Kutch. Remember, Saurashtra by itself is deficient by -43% !

Maharashtra reservoirs are showing levels as follows as per latest levels available..
Konkan Reservoirs 55%full (last year at this date 49%), Marathwada  10% (24%), Nagpur  37% (35%), Pune 35% (39%).
Overall Maharastra Reservoirs: 32% (36% in 2012 and 50% in 2011).
Situation is manageable and could be kept under control.

Now, in the modern day and era, we have to consider the average of all the regions. The overall Monsoon performance is taken considering India as a whole..Excess and deficient regions. Any developing and established nation like ours would have considered the excess rains that its coastal/mountainous belt gets, to divert the huge amounts of water to its interiors. 
The coastal regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka get between 2000-6000 mms, and a few places even boast of over 7500-8000 mms as normal..now that's a fantastic amount of rain by any standards.
Maharashtra has Mahableshwar with five rivers running and originating from there, and from Nasik district the state has the Godavri river, running through the water starved regions of Marathwada !

The State has ample scope to put things in perspective, by irrigating the "normally" low rainfall regions. The state would never complain of a water scarcity !!

26th Tuesday was hot, and the hottest in India was Rentachintala at 41.8c...In Mah Solapur was hot at 40.2c.
Upper winds brought medium/high clouds over Pakistan , NW India, Central India and Gujarat and adjoining Mah.
Very light drizzles were reported from Manvi (Kutch), keeping the maximum at 30.4c ..and clouds kept the otherwise hot Bhuj at 35.7c on Tuesday. In fact, nowhere in Gujarat has it crossed 38c today !

As forecasted, Kanyakumari in TN recieved fairly heavy rains with the guage measuring 36 mms in last 24 hrs.
Several stations in South Kerala recieved good rainfall, among them Punalur, Mancompu 4 cms, Aryankavu, Varkala,Kozha and Munnar getting 3 cms. 

The N/S trough with wind dis-continuity is vertical through East Rajasthan/West MP/Maharashtra.Thundershowers for one more day inSouthern Kerala/TN...

M-4 has moved into West Pakistan, while strengthening over Pakistan Central and Northern regions, will move into Northern India by Wednesday, 27th evening.
Gains over India on Thursday...



M-3  was  predicted to precipitate in Northern India on the weekend, so Saturday showed good precipitation in Kashmir, HP and tapering amounts in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan from the M-3 system. 

Chief amounts were: Manali 43, Saloni 40, Banihal & Seobagh Aws 39 each, Srinagar 38, 
Quazigund 33, Ludhiana 23, Bikaner 9, Chandigarh, Patiala & Phalodi 5 
each, Ambala 4, Jaisalmer 3, Amritsar IAF & Tehri 2 in mms.
In MP/Vidarbha, the rains were: Mandla 26, Pachmarhi 3, Amraoti & Narsingpur 2 each, Seoni 1.
Sunday was a wet day in HP, with Hamirpur getting 27 mms, Dharamshala 22 ms, Dalhousie 19 mms and Kufri 9 mms till 5.30 pm IST.

Delhi NCR was warm on the week end, with the day at 34/35c. Thunderclouds and Cumulonimbus clouds developed by Sunday evening, with cloud cover up to 4 OKTA.
Showers developed late evening in NE NCR...

Higher amounts of rains recieved from across the border in Pakistan: Parchinar got 87 mms, Peshawar 46 mms, Murree 45 mms, Islamabad 28 mms (and cool at 20c as the max) and Lahore 10 mms 

Now what next 3/4 days ?

Monday, 25th March/Tuesday 26th March: We see much of the sub-continent regions going dry. Just some residual precipitation in the HP upper reaches and NE states.Very light localised showers in Kanyakumari district.
Oman and Muscat gets  rain on Monday..cooling down the region by a couple of degrees.

Wednesday 27th March: As M-4 moves into Pakistan, precipitation gradually increases and moves from Western regions of Pakistan into the Central and Northern regions of Pakistan.
Meanwhile, as the day progresses, thundershowers are likely to develop in Vidharbha, North Madhya Mah and Western MP regions. MP west of Bhopal (between Ujjain and Bhopal) can expect thundershowers on Wednesday evening.

Thursday 28th March: M-4 moves in to India. Precipitaion in Kashmir, HP (snow possible on upper reaches) and rains in Punjab, Haryana and Delhi NCR. 
Rajasthan and adjoining UP can get showers. Thundershower in Delhi NCR.

No major rise or heat waves temperatures expected this week..

Except hills of Western Nepal..country bypassed by M-4 (again)..after a cool climate, Kathmandu rises to 29.3c..and seeing the trend this week. Anyway, the capital has recieved 27 mms rain this month, a little short of its normal.

Mumbai remains partly cloudy next 3 days, with pleasant breeze keeping the temperature around 32/33c in Scruz and 30/31c at Colaba. 
Pune: Sunny on Mon/Tuesday. Partly cloudy wednesday with thundery developments possible on Thursday. Light rains in some parts.

New Delhi NCR gets thundershowers on late Wednesday or Thuresday...up to 5 mms expected.
Kolkata gets partly cloudy on Wednesday/Thursday..but warm days around 37/38c..

Karachi will be mostly sunny with a range of 32-22c.
Hyderabad (Sindh): Cloudy on Mon/Tuesday, and clearing later..but temperature within 35c..

Muscat expecting precipitation and fairly good rains next 2 days..cooler weather ahead..
Sunday's Maharashtra's Highs:
Pune: 35.8c, Lahagaon: 37.0c, Mahableshwar: 31.0c, Mumbai Scruz: 31.9c, Colaba: 30.5c, Vagaries: 31.2c, Dahanu: 29.9c, 
Akola: 39.2c, Nagpur: 38.6c.

Pic from RKChaudhary..

World Meteorological Day 2013

Watching the weather to protect life and property
Celebrating 50 years of World Weather Watch

Each year, on 23 March, the World Meteorological Organization, its 191 Members and the worldwide meteorological community celebrate World Meteorological Day around a chosen theme. This day commemorates the entry into force, on that date in 1950, of the WMO Convention creating the Organization. Subsequently, in 1951, WMO was designated a specialized agency of the United Nations System.

This year, the theme is “Watching the weather to protect life and property" - Brochure

Happy Meteorology Day!

On Friday, Hottest Place in Asia: Rentachintala (India)  at 40.6c,  Kurnool (India): 40.5c. 
In India, next was followed by Wardha and Anantapur at 40.0c. 
Mumbai Scruz was 32.5c, Colaba at  31.4c, Vagaries 31.6c...Panjim was 32.6c.


India Australia Delhi Test Match begins on Friday...Hot day on Saturday with rain on Saturday night. Sunday might see a rain interruption.

M-3 is expected to move into Pakistan by Friday 22nd March, initially into the central Sindh, Punjab and Northern Pakistan regions. Punjab Lahore can expect showers by the evening hours. As the WD trough traverses Pakistan, the Sindh region gets light showers, with 
Karachi  possibly getting light rains or thundershowers late on 22nd night/23rd morning. Hyderabad Sindh can also expect showers on 22nd night.

Saturday 23rd, M-3 moves Eastwards into India, with rains continuing in Pakistan.
Rain/snow can be expected in Kashmir/HP and rains in Punjab and Haryana. 
Later in the day (23rd), some light rains can be expected in Rajasthan and thunder squalls around Delhi NCR.Delhi NCR could heat up to 35c in the day. 

Isolated thundershowers pop up in Nagpur and Wardha districts of Vid. and adjoining MP  in the evening (23rd).

Sunday 24th: Rains continue in Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana. 
A chance of thunder squalls in some parts of Delhi NCR on 24th.
The odd thundershower can appear in Nagpur, Amraoti, Wardha or Akola district of Vid.

M-3 fizzles out on Monday..M-4 arrives by 27th/28th.

At the Weekend;
Mumbai Scruz will remain mainly clear  (light Cirrus clouds)  with NW winds and keeping the temperature around 32/33c, while Pune stays warm in the day around 36/37c.
Outer townships of Mumbai will have warm days  around 36/37c with nights dipping to 19/20c.

Westerly winds will sweep Kolkata as the High pressure south of Kolkata in the Bay intensifies  With bright sunshine, Kolkata may reach the 38/39c mark by Saturday/Sunday.

After a rainy day today, though rainfall was less, the weather will be dry in Kathmandu this weekend..but warming up after today's 24.7c day temperatures...

21st March One Line Headlines:

M-3 trooping into Dubai and Muscat on 21st...system moves into Pakistan tomorrow with good precipitation expected.
Trough Low now over North MP, and waiting to see its behavior on M-3 arrival.


Great Lakes snow cover on this date last year - 1.1%.  Today? 94.2% ...from Mark Vogan

Cold, Cold, Cold With More Snow For USA ...see Mark's link here     


x----------------------------------x---------------------------------------------x-------------------------------------x---x Synoptic situation as on evening of 20th March: A technical break up and analysis  of events and probabilities. Since vagaries has many a students and enthusiast followers, this would be a typical case for Met students to follow up (if they wish), for this is how things are forecasted...See Current Weather Page.

Proposal to keep our farmers and related communities updated with the Latest on Weather:

In our country, with its agriculture base, the timely announcement of the Monsoon rains and their proper and (as far as possible) accurate forecast, will surely help our farmers.
Timely information of rains will help them plan their sowing and save them the cost of the seeds.
During Monsoons also, they need proper guidance as regards dry or wet spells, or extreme temperatures. Off seasonal rains or extreme weather warnings would also serve in saving standing crops and prevent loss.

Currently, Vagaries is already conveying and is in touch with the Aurangabad (Mah)region farmers. Cmdr Potey conveys vagaries' local forecast to his contacts in Akola region.

Similarly Ashok Patel's forecast is available to everyone including Saurashtra Farmers on http://www.gujaratweather.com , as well as through local New Papers and through phone to selected persons across many villages of Saurashtra. This person then communicates the weather information to farmers of the village.

Seeing the enthusiasm and eagerness, and having faith in our readers,
Vagaries and Ashok Patel's www.Gujaratweather.com would like to involve weather enthusiasts in communicating with farmers or their representatives.

Weather enthusiasts/Vagarians interested in passing more detailed forecast, other than our published Weather Forecast, of any other States or sub-divisions to  farmers of those areas, may communicate their intention and views through  e mail to Vagaries or Ashok Patel.

When you need detailed  Weather Forecasts of your region or sub-region, you may contact us and get the same. Warnings and information could be passed on through SMS, E mail or by word of mouth to the concerned farming communities.

Weather volunteers should intimate us for any variations between forecast and reality or sudden local developments in their respective regions or sub-regions.

Before implementing our intention we welcome your suggestions and views.

The hole in the stratospheric ozone over Antarctica has shrunk to the smallest size in a decade, according to satellite observations.see here

A Review of Last Week's Weather..The Week from 10th -17th March: A report..clearing some Doubts..Just Published on Current Weather Page of this Blog..Illustrated with Maps and diagrams.

Vagaries' Exclusive Long Term tentative Forecast:(Detailed forecast  will be on blog on usual 4 day forecast basis. This long term forecast could be subject to changes).

1. 23rd/24th March: WD M-3 over Northern States and Punjab and Haryana. Delhi NCR could get rains in some parts. Thundershowers in pockets of Vidharbha.

2. 27th/28th March: M-4 moves into Pakistan and India. Precipitation in Sindh, plains and hills of Pakistan. Indian side precipitation in Kashmir, HP (heavy), Utteranchal, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, covering West UP also. Moves into Western Nepal on 29th. Nepal no meaningfull rains till March end. 
Delhi NCR to get atleast 3 more spells of rains (Light to medium) till month end.

3. 27th/28th March: North Konkan, Madhya Mah. and Vidarbha, adjoining south Gujarat and south MP get rains and thundershowers. Hail expected in Vidharbh.Thundershowers continue upto 29th in Madhya Mah.

4. Dubai can get rains on 22nd.
Muscat can get precipitation from 23rd March, precipitation will persist for 3/4 days. Days will get cooler.

(Not for commercial use)

Posted on Saturday @ 11 pm IST:  
We see heavier rain concentration around Bhopal and to the NE..with 25 mms in Damoh, 13 mms in Umeria and 7 mms in Katni.vagaries had forecast this heavy patch around the Bhopal region, ...where the UAC (see yesterday's map) is situated......BUT latest bulletin from IMD -"The cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood has become less marked."
Madhya Mah and Vidharbha also reported thundershowers on Saturday evening..

Pune ,Mahableshwar and surroundings report light rains early morning..Pune station reportd 0.2 mms, Mahableshwar 1.6 mms...and vicinity in between Pune Kolhapur gets some medium showers with thunder..Shiraz reported thunder from Mahableshwar during last night..Rains reported from Vidarbha also...see rain areas in map of 16th Saturday below..

The Actual Situation on Friday ( Map below overdrawn on the original map of yestreday..to show Actual v/s Forecast)  is that the trough has tilted more towards the North than the forecast, with an UAC and a low on either side.
The Low is the projected low as shown in Saturday's forecast map..having formed in the South of the projected region...

Vagaries' Forecast for 15th, 16th and 17th. Forecast for the Day and Night of the Date Mentioned.

Weekend City Forecast Friday 15th, Saturday 16th, Sunday 17th: Minimum Temperature will be the recording of the Next Morning.

Mumbai Scruz:
Friday: Clear 32c- 19c
Saturday: Clear 32c-20c.
Sunday: Humidity increasing, creating sweaty conditions in the afternoon/evening hours. Partly Cloudy at night (Sunday Night):34c-20c

               Pune: 
Friday: partly cloudy 37c-18c
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Light drizzle in vicinity. 38c- 19c 
Sunday: Partly cloudy 37c- 17c

 Surat: 
Friday: Clear 37c-22c
Saturday:  Partly Cloudy 36c-23c .
Sunday: 38c-23c Temperatures rising.

Kolkata can expect cloudy weather with some light rains in some parts on Sunday.

Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy weather till Saturday and clear from Sunday. Temperature around the 31c mark, with slight drop on Sunday morning.



Chennai remains sunny and in the 34c-23c range.

Superb Pics of Wednesday's (12th March) Thunderstorm at Nagpur Taken By Akshay Deoras...on Inter Active Page ...Thanks

India_Australia Cricket Test Match..Overnight rains will see a damp pitch in the morning. Thursday will have cloudy weather and interruption of play possible due to rains.


Posted on Wednesday 13th @ 1 pm:
Projected trough forms and runs from N.Mah coast Eastwards into Balasore and th Bay...as on 00 hrs UTC Wednesday...see here
Light rains reported from Karachi, Sukkur and medium rains in Pak Punjab..

Posted on Sunday, 10th March:
Heat Waves abate to some extent in the Sub-Continent

After offering the first 40c of this season to the country, the Western coastline of India has finally shown a downward trend in maximum temperatures. 
Mumbai along with Rajkot managing the first 40c of the season, have been the hot regions due to the high pressure in the region and the Easterly flow towards a high in the Arabian Sea.

Now, we see a high slowly developing in NW India. initially for the next few days, and then a trough running along the 20N-22N West -East line from Vidharbha thru to the East coast. This will embed a low in the lower regions of the atmosphere around North MP region.

The effects of all this:

Monday, 11th March: Light scattered rains in Kerala. Thundershowers around Kathmandu possible by late afternoon/evening.

Tuesday, 12th March: No meaningful rains in India, but the approaching M-2 brings precipitation into Western Pakistan regions.

Wednesday 13th March: M-2 moves into the plains of Pakistan, and along with the hilly regions, gets precipitation. again, fairly good rains for Islamabad. Some showers in Southern Sindh can translate to rain in Karachi on Wednesday.
Karachi will hover around 31/32c with rain as forecasted for Wednesday.
Hyderabad (Sindh) will get relief from this M-2 system, as the days will be under control within the 35c levels. Monday will be cloudy.

M-2 brings rains/snow to all of Kashmir and HP. Cloudy with some showers for Punjab and West Haryana.

Thursday 14th March: Moderate precipitation in Northern Pakistan. 

In India, Kashmir and HP get rain/snow. Light rains for Punjab, N.Rajasthan and Delhi NCR.
Cloudy weather for Vidarbha, with light isolated thundershowers, in East Vid (Nagpur/Chandrapur), and adjoining S. Chattisgarh.(Remember the trough?)

City Forecast:
Mumbai Scruz: Monday/Tuesday: Partly cloudy (2 OKTA) with day around 34/35c and the night time lows at 20/21c. Increasing levels in humidity. W/NW winds.
Wednesday/Thursday: Clear skies, with the day temperature around 33/34c.

Pune: Partly (light clouding) on Mon and Tues, with the day around 36/37c.
Thursday should be clear and warm at 37c. The lows will be around a comfortable 17c.

Delhi NCR: After a warm Monday and Tuesday at 33/34c,
Duststorm and showers on Tuesday night, and some night rains. Dust raising winds possible.
Wednesday may again see another thundershower/duststorm, with precipitation.

Surat: Monday thru Thursday: Sky will be partly vieled with high cirrus clouds in the day. Temperature range will be between 35-21/22c.

Chennai: Monday thru Thursday: Clear, sunny and warm in the 35-24c range. South winds dominating.

Kolkata: Monday/Tuesday will be sunny and with the day temperature around 34/35c. But Wednesday and Thursday will see some clouds, which will in effect raise the day temperature to 35/36c, and make it more stuffy and uncomfortable, with the lows also showing 23/24c.

Do not miss the editorial article below in yesterday's Post

What is the Rationale behind the supposedly Warming up Trend ?

Hot weather, Heat Wave, Cold Wave, Heavy rains and floods, or drought...the easiest thing is to blame it on Global Warming..or the so called Global Warming (GW). 
New names like Climate Change and The Co2 effect have cropped up to convince and stress upon the belief about the disastrous effects of "GW"

This article will concentrate on the methodoligy of weather station readings and the rationale about how the rise in temperatures have been measured and detemined.

Here is an answer to questions very very frequently asked to me by young meteorologists, keen to devlop and probe into more regions and areas to monitor th weather.
Why not set up more stations world wide and enlarge our meteorology field area ? They ask.

But what's happening ? Weather stations used to monitor near surface temperature for the global climate record are disappearing worldwide at and alarming rate. There are two things going on here: 1) Stations are actually being closed down, particularly in Canada and in Russia in the early 1990′s. 2) Some stations while open, have disappeared off the reporting radar for global temperature metrics such as GISS.

Watch the video here prepared by (www.surfacestations.org) super volunteer and unofficial historian John W. Goetz. It outlines how the worldwide network has grown since the 1890′s, and then dwindled in modern times.

(Skip Ad if it comes)
However, there are ceratin stations which are located much against the WMO norms, and which record and measure higher than actual temperatures, and which remain on roof tops .
Example:Baltimore USHCN station circa 1990′s photo courtesy NOAA.

What is interesting about this station, is that it is a rooftop station, like we’ve seen in San Francisco, Eureka, and many other US cities. Rooftop stations are naturally going to impart a warm bias to the surface temperature records,  for obvious reasons.

Rooftop exposures have an advantage of increased instrument security and good exposure for wind sensors (standard height is about 33 feet). 
However, there are also drawbacks. Exposure for precipitation and temperature instrumentation is clearly non-compliant, being elevated to high above the ground. 

Additionally the instrument exposure is usually over environmentally surfaces like metal, black tar, shingle, stone etc., while at the same time being close to a wide variety of roof surfaces which are subject to change.
Many times, in fact always, we immediately notice that the station in its later years was surrounded by much taller buildings than it was early-on. On top of the rooftop location (pun intended), this represents a pretty dramatic – yet gradual – change in surroundings.
Says Professor Landsburg  reiterating his concern about rooftop exposures with respect to the urban warming issue: “They [rooftop stations] are certainly of little value in a full assessment of the climatic changes brought about by urbanization.”

No argument there. No wonder world averages ar increasing..and far away glaciers and Polar ice is (supposed to be) melting and (supossedly) decling. Thanks to these roof top instruments ? 

What actually we need is only a few very good ground stations might be needed for ground-truth checks. Now a days we come across so much of surface temperature data that are fraught with so many inconsistencies, sloppiness, irregularities and manipulation that they cannot be takien seriously. Satellites are the data source we can rely on.

Contributions and excerpts from Anthony Whatts (Watts Up) and John Goetz, 

As Maharashtra is facing drought and acute water shortage, Vagaries brings the latest water levels in various reservoirs in the State in % as Full and Last years level on same date..Mumbai Lakes also given...See Mumbai Page if Interested


Posted on Saturday @ 8.15pm:

On line with predictions, Mumbai Scruz is back to 35.0c on Saturday, and Colaba scaled down to 32.6c. Vagaries was 34.0c Saturday.
Alibag was down to 33.3c and Ratnagiri 33.6c, while Goa did not cross 34.0c.


While things cooled down in Konkan, Vidharbha heated up with Akola at 38.6c, Amraoti 38.0c, Wardha 38.2c and Nagpur 37.2c. Expected heat will remain string in Vidharbha on Sunday.
Jalgaon was the highest in India at 39.3c.


Surat was 37.4c, while Amreli was highest at 38.9c in Gujarat.

New Delhi Palam rose to 34.1c and Sjung heated uo to 33.8c, NCR has suddenly shot up more than the expected level of 32c, with all stations between 33/34c on Saturday.


Posted on Friday 8th..@8.20pm..


Mumbai Colaba falls to 33.9c on Friday from 38.6c on Thursday, a fall of 4.7c. vagaries recorded 36.0c, a fall of 0.3c since yesterday. Panjim drops to 35.3c and Ratnagiri was 34.2c on Friday, a fall of 4.2c. Overall falling trend seen due to early onset of W/SW sea breeze. 

But, Mumbai Scruz still stubbornly stuck at 39c today, though we had expected till 38c..

As expected, Vidarbha temperatures have shown a rise today, with Akola at 37.6c, Chandrapur 37.4c, Amraoti at 37.2c and Nagpur rising to 36.3c.

Rajkot and Surendranagar remain the hottest in India on Friday at 40.3c. Saurashtra (including Rajkot) was forecasted by vagaries to record 40c as per yesterdays blog.
Surat saw 39.3c...(Forecasted 38c)

In Pakistan, it was Chhor at 40.2c, followed by Hydrerabad and Nawabshah at 37.5c.

x--------------------------x------------------------------------x-----------------------------------x
Posted on Thursday, 7th March:
Weekend Expectations:

.Rain may still "linger" around the Mangalore-Cochin regions on Friday.Weather getting drier and rainfall decreasing in TN and Karnataka from Friday, 8th
Heat moving East into Vidharbha and Orissa regions.

9th March sees the M-1 moving into North Pakistan. Also, it moves into the Indian region with rain in Kashmir and HP and snow in higher reaches.

Mumbai: As the winds turn direction from Friday, 8th, we see a drop in the day temperatures, and increase in humidity levels   from Friday. 
Dropping from the 40c levels on Thursday to 38c on Friday, and finally 34/35c by Sunday. Nights will however show a steady but slow rise reaching 20c by Sunday.

Pune: Clear and "warming up" week end at around 36/37c and nights around 15/16c.

Surat: May hold on to around 37/38c Friday and Saturday and finally may decrease to 36c on Sunday..nights around 20/21c.
Saurastra (Including Rajkot) will see the daytime temperatures around 39/40c on Friday. Decrease by 2/3c from Saturday for the weekend.

Delhi NCR will be hazy in the day and highs on the weekend could reach 31/32c. Nights will be pleasant around 15/16c.


Mumbai Scruz , first to touch 40c in India this season..and was the hottest place in Asia today..7th March.

Scruz records 40.5c (+8.4c), and Colaba 38.6c (+7.9c) on Thursday, 7th March..

3 cities touch 40c today as the first in India this season.

For Mumbai, its not new to touch 40c and be the first city in India. It has happened before in 1981 when Mumbai was the first in India to reach 40c on 3rd March, and again in 2007 when Mumbai saw 40c first on 16th March.

Other highs in Konkan on 7th: ..Dahanu 38.6c (+8.6c), Ratnagiri 38.4c, Panjim 38.0c, Mahableshwar rose to 30.8c.
Gujarat saw Rajkot and Valsad at 40.1c.  Surat reached 39.1c.

Incidently, the hottest in Pakistan on Thursday was at  Chhor and Karachi..39c.

Pics of Thursday 7th March Morning from Dubai...sent by Jignesh 

On March 12th and 13th, the comet Pan Starrs will reappear in the sunset sky..see Space News Page

Posted on 6th March @ 10.15pm....Heat Wave catches up in Gujarat: 


The highest in India on Wednesday 6th March, was in Gujarat,  Porbunder at 39.6c. 
Bhuj was a shade behind at 39.4c.Surat jumped to 39.2c and Goa at 37.3c.
Wednesday 6th March, the Mumbai heat continues with SCruz at 39.0c and Colaba 36.5c. vagaries was high at 38.3c today.


Ratnagiri was just behind at 38.9C and Dahanu at 36.6C .
Mahableshwar was a "pleasant" 30.7C (+1.2c) with the low at 17c.

Chhor in Pakistan was at 39.8c today...
Rains have occurred in TN and Interior Karnataka. 

Posted on 5th March:
Rainfall is likely in the South on Wednesday 6th and Thursday 7th.

Though light to moderate rains will be seen all over TN, rainfall will be heavier on Wednesday night and Thursday in S.I.Karnataka. 
Heavy rains in regions of Hasan, Chickmaglur, Shimoga and Udipi districts and Northern Kanada, including Belgaum can receive light rains and cloudy weather. 
Definite cooling down in Goa, as we see some clouding there. Belgaum would be partly cloudy around 33/34c and low around 20/21c.

The ridge on the North Maharshtra and South coastal Gujarat coast, as i read the scene now, is likely to disappear from Thursday 7th. High pressure could move east towards AP and the Bay.

I would predict another day of heat for Mumbai and Surat (38/39c), and then for Mumbai, a gradual decrease from 7th.Thursday to reach 34/35c at SCruz by Friday. 
From Thursday, winds turn to a comfortable N/NW direction for Mumbai and Surat.
The extreme variation range would reduce from Thursday for Mumbai.

Pune would be partly cloudy, some light to high clouds, next few days till Friday. This would mean a rise in night temperatures and days would be around 34/35c this week.

M-1 moves into Northern Pakistan on 8th Night, with Islamabad getting showers in the night into Saturday. Saturday 9th, M-1 is precipitating medium precipitation over Northern Pakistan, Kashmir, HP and Utterakhand. Spreads into Nepal next day.

(For information: M-2 due in Sub Continent on 12th/13th March, covering the Northern plains as well).

Tuesday 5th March: Mumbai Santa Cruz turns up to be the hottest in India today, Tuesday 5th March !
Mumbai Scruz high at 39.5c ( +6.7c) and low at 15.6c (-4.2c). Largest variation till now between day and night : 23.9c. 
In reality, average temperature works out only + 1.2c above normal..Thanks to the cooler nights.

Colaba saw a high of 37.5c and a low 22.0c. Vagaries high was 38.2c and low 24.6c..

Panjim and Ratnagiri both at 38.7c...Ratnagiri +7c above normal and Panjiim 6.6c above normal.

Highest in India on Monday 4th March:..40c still eluding..
Ratnagiri: 39.2c, followed by Mumbai SCruz at 39.0c and then Surat at 38.6c...Mumbai outer townships around 38c as expected.
Hottest in Asia was in Myanmar, Nyaung at 41.0c...

Surat heated up as expected in vagaries' forecast yesterday, almost touching the 39c predicted. However Mumbai Scruz was again at 39c and vagaries rose to 36.6c...expecting a rise in the Mumbai minimum by 2/3c tonite, thus reducing the day/night difference....



See note on this rise i temps on Mumbai Page of this blog...


With a high pressure dominating the North-Central regions of India, we cannot expect much from the precipitation side.
Showers could be expected in the region South of the 12N line in the Southern Karnataka and adjoining AP.. Reading as rain showers for Chennai and Bangalore on Tuesday 5th March and Wednesday 6th March.

Mumbai Scruz saw a high of 39.1c on Sunday, and Ratnagiri almost touched its all time high by reaching 39.5c on Sunday (all time high 39.6c)...and was the hottest in India.
Mumbai Scruz saw its highest day/night variation of 22.9c..

Mumbai Scruz: Monday and Tuesday may see a nominal fall from the 39c levels. The W/NW winds may set in a bit earlier and the effctive heat build up could fall by 1/2 c. Days could be around 37c and nights rising a bit to 18/19c. 
Wednesday: Charts show the high pressure moving East and expanding. If this happens, Mumbai SCruz may rise again by a couple of degrees to 38/39c.
Outer townships may be around 37/38c next 2 days and may increase for a day on Wednesday.

Goa could be in line with Scruz temperature wise.
Pune...placed in the 37- 15c range these next 3 days.

However, it will not be the same formula for Surat: We can see Surat heating up more from Monday 4th thru Wednesday 6th March. Won't be surprised to see Surat reading 39/40c. 
Bharuch too in for some severe heat next 3 days.

New Delhi: Next 3/4 day, Dry and NW winds will keep the temperature in the 28-14/15c range, while Kolkata will be sunny and rising gradually to reach 35c by Wed/Thursday.

M-1 after 10th March..

In Pakistan, heat will gradually set in from Sindh next week. Karachi may reach 36c by Wednesday and Hyderabad 37c. Hotspot in Sindh may reach 40c by Thursday 7th. 

Saturday, 2nd March Temperatures:

Mukdahan, Thailand was the hottest in Asia today, just short of 40c  at  39.7c, and several station in Thailand crossed 39c today, Saturday.

But, Konkan Coastline, Western India, was also amongst the hottest spots in India.

Highest was Ratnagiri, Maharastra Coast recording a close 39.2c (7.5c above normal), and Mumbai Scruz AP 38.0c,and Goa 37.7c.
Downtown Mumbai (Colaba) saw a high of 35.5c, while here Vagaries recorded 35.7c.

Surely, vagaries had anticipated 37/38c by Sunday, but its gone a day ahead to cross 39c. (should have made the strip along the Konkan a darker shade in the map put up on Thursday :-)).

Kolkata was a comfortable 30.9c and New Delhi Sjung 26.8c.

In neighbouring Pakistan, Chorre in Sindh was the hottest at 33.5c, while in Nepal it was Biratnagar at 31.3c. Kathmandu saw a high of 27.2c and a low of 9.5c.
Rangamati and Sylhet were the hottest in Bangladesh at 33.5c.