MONSOON REPORT (01-6-2017 TO 30-9-2017)
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 30-9-2017)	841.3 mm
SEASON +/-	-5.21%

Maharashtra ghat area seasonal rainfall:

Maharashtra &Goa coastal region seasonal rainfall:

Mumbai MMR seasonal rainfall : (data by Abhijit Modak)

(All maps are prepared by Tejas Baxi)

ALL INDIA SUBDIVISIONAL RAINFALL FIGURES:

REGION	EAST AND NORTHEAST INDIA
SUBDIVISION	ACTUAL		NORMAL		DEP +/-
Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Tripura	1870.7		1496.9		25%
SHWB & SIKKIM	2039.8		2006.2		2%
GANGETIC WEST BENGAL	1133		1167.9		-3%
BIHAR	936.8		1027.6		-9%
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA	1614.5		1792.8		-10%
JHARKHAND	978.8		1091.9		-10%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	1572.3		1768		-11%
REGION	NORTHWEST INDIA
SUBDIVISION	ACTUAL		NORMAL		DEP +/-
WEST RAJASTHAN	365.6		263.2		39%
JAMMU & KASHMIR	545.4		534.6		2%
UTTARAKHAND	1199		1229.1		-2%
EAST RAJASTHAN	566.1		615.8		-8%
HIMACHAL PRADESH	720.7		825.3		-13%
PUNJAB	384.9		491.9		-22%
HAR. CHD & DELHI	345.8		466.3		-26%
EAST UTTAR PRADESH	648.4		897.6		-28%
WEST UTTAR PRADESH	531.1		769.4		-31%
REGION	CENTRAL INDIA
SUBDIVISION	ACTUAL		NORMAL		DEP +/-
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH	646.3		477.5		35%
MADHYA MAHARASHTRA	852.5		729.3		17%
KONKAN & GOA	3206		2914.7		10%
GUJARAT REGION	995.3		914.7		9%
MARATHWADA	642.4		682.9		-6%
ODISHA	1051.7		1149.9		-9%
CHHATTISGARH	1039.4		1153.3		-10%
WEST MADHYA PRADESH	738		876.1		-16%
VIDARBHA	731.5		954.6		-23%
EAST MADHYA PRADESH	795.8		1051.2		-24%
REGION	SOUTH PENINSULA
SUBDIVISION	ACTUAL		NORMAL		DEP +/-
TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY	414.1		317.2		31%
RAYALASEEMA	506.1		398.3		27%
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH	662.8		581.1		14%
LAKSHADWEEP	1108.3		998.5		11%
N. I. KARNATAKA	522.9		506		3%
S. I. KARNATAKA	670.3		660		2%
A & N ISLAND	1526		1682.5		-9%
KERALA	1857.4		2039.6		-9%
TELANGANA	657.4		755.2		-13%
COASTAL KARNATAKA	2596.3		3083.8		-16%
				source	IMD

 

Posted 29th Friday :

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11)
Malé, Maldives, 25-27 September 2017

Consensus Statement on the Forecast for the 2017  October to December (OND) Season Rainfall and Temperatures over South Asia

Summary
Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2017 OND Season over some parts of SE Peninsular India, north Sri Lanka and some northeastern areas of the region. Above normal is most likely over southeastern part of the region and along the coastal areas adjacent to the north Bay of Bengal. Over remaining areas of the region including northwest and central areas that generally receive
very little rain during the season, rainfall is most likely to be Normal.
Normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely during the 2017 OND Season over most parts of the region.
Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and these conditions are likely to continue and turn to border line/ weak La Nina conditions in the early next year. It is also recognized that during the 2017 OND season, in the absence of SST forcings from Pacific and Indian oceans, strong
intra seasonal features will have larger influence on the climate variability over
the region leading to increased uncertainty in predictions of seasonally averaged rainfall and temperature patterns.
The consensus forecast outlook presented here has been developed
through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world.
For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon
outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.
A separate consensus statement for the winter season (December 2017 to
February 2018) will be issued in November 2017.

Full Statement here:

-------------------x--------------------------------x------------------------------x-------------------------------x
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BENGALURU 

(SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA RAINS )

During past 5 years (2013-2017) , Bengaluru averages 20 % more rains during Jan-Sep than it's average during 1981-2010..

This September , Bengaluru had 500 mms rain till now.. 

Click below 



Posted 27th Wednesday Night:

On Wednesday 27th, IMD has started withdrawing the South West Monsoon.
Happy to note that the Red Line drawn on the Vagaries' withdrawal image and places of widhrawal (mentioned on 25th Monday) matches and is in line with the IMD mention.

Further, Vagaries mentions further (to its Monday ) withdrawal of SWM from West M.P, Saurahtra, North Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi.
Next Phase of Withdrawal (next 3 days) from Rest of Gujarat, M.P, North Madhya Mah, Marathwada, Vidhdarbh .

Bangalore has been getting very good rains as mentioned by Vijayanand and RajeshKumar.
The city has gone into surplus, and is seeing one of the best Auguast and September rains in many years. 
Bangalore AP...Total this SWM 805 mms and 361 mms above normal +45%
Bangalore City...Total this SWM 932 mms and 406 mms above normal +44%
Rains to continue this weekend...Cool day on Thursday. As of now seems more rains next week.

Mumbai: As mentioned , a light shower on Thursday, Thunder shower possible in patches on Friday and Saturday. Withdrawal phase from 1st October.
Pune had thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rains in many areas, fog was seen in the mornings.

Posted Monday 25th Night:

1. Anti Cyclone at 850 hp levels, OLR, UTH and dry air indicates the withdrawal of South West Monsoon from Rajasthan, Kutch, Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Kashmir. 

Next phase indicates withdrawal from West M.P, Saurashtra, North Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Delhi. (Next 2  days). Within 2/3 days, we will see strong dry NW winds blowing over Delhi.
Monsoon withdrawal will commence from Vidharbh and North Madhya Mah. and Marathwada from 1st October.

(However, due to sea level trough in the North, some agencies may not consider as Monsoon withdrawn yet. Logically, some agencies would wait for the trough to move Southwards while the Monsoon withdraws. But, at sea level, we already see a confluence of North winds and NW winds all along the interior areas of the West coast.) 

Mumbai City: Thursday:  Morning will be cloudy with a shower in some areas. Clearing later by afternoon.
Friday: A thunder shower likely towards the latter part of Friday.
Saturday: Maybe a thunder shower in the evening, maybe the last wet weekend of the current season. 
Mumbai City can anticipate the first half of October to become hot...and mercury could even touch 38/39c !

Thundery conditions can develop in Interior North Konkan (Outer Townships) on Thursday/Friday.

Pune: Pune experienced a medium fog on Monday morning. Next 3 days city may expect a thunder shower in late afternoon/evening, with Friday maybe getting a heavy shower in some areas.

Kolkata: Thunder showers increasing after Wednesday on daily basis.

Posted Friday Noon IST:
Mumbai City: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy and sunny spells. Light rain in some parts of city. Days will be warmer.

Nagothane and surrounding regions may get some showers on Saturday /Sunday evening.
Pune: Thunder shower likely on Sunday.

BB-12 now over Central M.P. is precipitating good rains. Likely to fizzle out as expected. 
South West Monsoon Withdrawing from West Rajasthan and Punjab and Kutch. Soon from Saurashtra and Rajasthan.

Posted Wednesday 20th Night:

Mumbai:
Though Wednesday had frequent showers, the intensity and quantum was much less than Tuesday. Colaba received 75 mms and Scruz 61 mms in 12 hrs till Wednesday evening. (Vagaries had estimated 35-40 mms till Wednesday evening). 
With a further decrease in rains on Thursday, we may see a brighter day on Thursday with a few showers.
This could be the penultimate spell of showers for Mumbai of this Monsoon. 
I would venture out (though not an expert) to give a longer forecast for Mumbai. Mumbai may get its last and final thunder showers around 27th/28th September.

BB-12 has moved into East M.P. on Wednesday and would track West and fizzle out over West M.P. Heavy rains likely in West M.P. and adjoining East Gujarat region.

South West Monsoon withdrawing from Kutch, West Rajasthan and Punjab. Next phase rest Rajasthan and Saurashtra.