As we move into Summer..

    Number of Districts with above normal rainfall       :     71

    Number of Districts with below normal rainfall       :    647

    District with highest above normal rainfall  (768%)  :  RAJSMAND (RAJASTHAN)

    Number of Districts with zero rainfall                      :     272

   

                                                                                                                                    

                                                                                                                                            

                                                                                                                                      

28 February 2023

Vagaries forewarned correctly as early as 11th February 

Pune (Shivajinagar) temperature summary for February 2023

Average maximum temperature: 33.87C (1.33C higher than last year February)

Average minimum temperature: 11.38C (1.48C lower than last year February)

Days with maximum temperature 35C or more = 10 days (last year 2 days)

Days with maximum temperature less than 30C = 1 day (last year 3 days)

Highest maximum temperature: 36.7C on 21 February

Lowest minimum temperature: 8.4C on 15 February

Freddie Cyclone travelled 7200 kms across Indian Ocean...15 Days

See on World Weather Page

 27th February:

We have been hearing recent voices upon a El Nino condition possible in the Indian Monsoon Months.

(El Nino is the phenomena that reduces rainfall in the Monsoon Months).

Well, let me clarify, it is still early to jump to a conclusion..that "El Nino will spoil the Indian Summer Monsoon this year ". It is not realistc today to come to any conclusions regarding El Nino.

There are no definite and clear indications, that, surely El Nino conditions will prevail over our region in June/July.

The current status of this (Called ENSO Conditions) do not clearly show it...

Now, lets see what the Latest NOAA adversary study shows about the current scenario..

>La Niña is present.
( La Nina is the reverse of El Nino.)

>Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. 

>The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. 

>'Negative SST anomalies have gradually weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean since at least December 2022 and positive SST anomalies have emerged in the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean since late January 2023.''

>also,..The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 -0.6ºC Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC

*Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies were observed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with anomalous cyclones on either side of the equator. 

so, we may assume..👇

ENSO-neutral conditions* are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer....(meaning May to July..early Monsoon).

Early conditions do not warranty any panic or concern for Monsoon..

* Neutral Conditions means neither La Nina nor El Nino.

People have been reading recently about El Nino ...that may spoil the Monsoon Flow. And sending and asking queries 

My note on this tomorrow by noon,27th.

 Please see Vineet'sPage Updated with good information. 

http://www.vagaries.in/p/drvineets-page.html?m=1

Forecast from 24th to 28th February - Getting warmer in Maharashtra and Gujarat!

Mumbai: 

*Daytime temperatures to rise upto 35-36°C ( not going to 38c !), nights will be pleasant around 19-21°C. 

*Dry Easterly winds in daytime will cause Dry heat, No sweaty feel yet.

* No Heat Alert

Pune: 

*Days getting hotter upto 35-36°C, sharp sunshine. 

*Nights still cool around 12-13°C, but may rise to 14-15°C by Monday 27th. 

---------------------------------------

Interior konkan may see hotter day temperature of 37-39°C, but nights can be little cooler than Mumbai. 

South konkan (Ratnagiri/Sindhudurg) to also see hot daytime weather of 36-38°C.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gujarat: Temperatures to rise from the weekend. 

Surat/Bharuch/Vadodara region could see max around 35-37°C. Some regions may see max up to 38°C.

Ahmedabad max will be around 35-36°C. 

Minimum temperature will be around 17°C in most places. 

Saurashtra and Kutch regions will also see max around 35-36°C, and min around 17°C.  

Some light rain/snow likely in Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh on 25th-26th. Otherwise, mainly dry weather across north India next 3 days in the absence of any impactful Western Disturbance.

A new (moderately strong) Western Disturbance may affect Himalayas and parts of Punjab from 28th February/1st March. 

 22nd February 

With the East winds relenting over Konkan last 2 days, ( as explained in previous post), the Konkan region has witnessed a drop in day temperatures. 

Konkan saw almost normal , even below normal, in Mumbai. 👇

Temperatures around 31-33C  in Konkan after 20th February 

Mumbai went below normal on 22nd

A Vagarian's work in getting a Doctrate has been honoured by alloting a Page to Dr. Vineet Kumar. 

His research will be published regularly by himself on this Page. 👉this Page. 👉

Record breaking heat in the national capital

 20 February 2023

Delhi Safdarjung recorded 33.6c today which is 9 degrees above normal. This is the third-highest February temperature recorded there in history.

Delhi Jafarpur: 32.8c (+8 degrees above normal)

Delhi Ayanagar: 33.2c (+8 degrees above normal)

Delhi Lodi Road: 32.0c (+7 degrees above normal)

Delhi Palam: 32.5c (+7 degrees above normal)

Delhi Pitampura: 35.1c (+10 degrees above normal)

Delhi Pusa: 34.6c (+10 degrees above normal)

Highest temperatures record for Delhi

1. 34.1c on 26 Feb 2006

2. 33.9c on 17 Feb 1993

19th February 

The rising temperature of Mumbai till date to 37/38°c is seen in the graph..6°c above normal. 

Mumbai outlook this week..20th to 25th February 

Now coming week, as the East winds relent, Mumbai will see the day temperatures in "sane" regions. Last week of this month will be more bearable. 

Days dropping to around 34/35°c next week will bring relief from the sharp scorching sun.

Pleasant nights around 19/20°c will be comfortable. 

Pune: Days around 33/34°c will prove sharp in the day exposed to the Sun.

Nights better around 12/14°c.

National capital facing the heat

 19th February 

Delhi Safdarjung recorded 31.5c (+7 degrees above normal). This is the second-highest temperature recorded in February after 2006.

Also, this is the 1st 30+ temperature for Delhi Safdarjung for this year.

Delhi Palam: 30.7c (+6 degrees above normal)

Delhi Ayanagar: 30.5c (+6 degrees above normal)

Delhi Pitampura: 32.4c (+8 degrees above normal)

Delhi Pusa: 31.7c (+7 degrees above normal)

19th February: More heat in February ...

1. Around Mumbai ( credit Vag. Abhijit)

Max on 18-2-23🌡️

#Mumbai 37.9 (+7)

#Ratnagiri 38.3 (+8)

#Devgad 38.6 (+7)

#NaviMumbai & #MiraRoad 39

#Thane & #Panvel 39.2

#Badlapur & #Dombivli 39.6

#Kalyan & #Manor 39.8

#Murbad & #Nagothane 40

#Karjat & #Chiplun 41.2

2. Rajasthan ( credit Vag. Dr.Vineet, )

Historic heat in Feb in Rajasthan

Jaisalmer:36.5c(+9)

Jodhpur:36.9(+10)

Bikaner:34.6(+8)

Barmer:38.3c(+10)

Kota:32.3(+5)

Churu:32.5c(+6)

Sriganganagar:29.6(+5)

Siker:30.5c(+5)

Udaipur:32.6(+5)

3.Interesting analysis of Average temperatures comparison on peak winters time period, between a Himalayan Hill Station (Shimla)...and a tropical plain station at 18.5N ( Pune)

On 18th February 

Shimla: Max 23.2°..min 14.4°..Average climate temperature 19°c

Pune: Max 34.5°...min 9.4° average climate 21° c.

18th February 2023

Mumbai, as warned, continues on its heating spree, unabated...

(San. =SantaCruz)

Reason..East winds preventing the cooler sea breeze in the daytime

And the most unusual temperature reading at Shimla..both day and night 11c above normal..!So the the maximum normally should be what the minimum is👀

Unprecedented heat in Himachal Kullu:29.7(+12) Shimla:23.2(+11) broke the all-time record for Feb Solan:29.3(+10) Bilaspur:28.6(+7) Solan:29.3(+10) Manali:20(+9) Dharamshala:26.5(+9) Sundernagar:28.5(9) Dalhousie:20.6(+8)

Compiled by Vag Vineet 

17th February 

Porbandar, Gujarat, a coastal town, recorded 39.0°c. That is +9°c above the normal.

It is also the highest February temperature ever for Porbandar. Previous record was 38.7°c in 2017.

Interestingly,  the low on 17th was 12.8 °c..2°c below-normal !

Vagaries of the Weather 

16th February : The earliest date (ever) for any Indian Station (IMD) to touch 40c....as per Vagaries' records  

Some Interesting Records & Facts..in a follow up to our February Record Heat Mention.

Today, 16th February, the first 40c was recorded in India. (40.3c). Incidentally this is the record for Bhuj also for February. The previous high for February was 39c on 19th February 2017. 

Now, as per Vagaries' records, this becomes the earliest date (ever) for any Indian Station to touch 40c. Previous earliest was 20th February, at Bhubaneshwar in 2016. 

The last date on Vagaries' record is 22nd March at Ahmadabad in 1995.

---------------------------------------------------------

Temperatures today ,16th February:👇

Panjim 38.2c,

Panjim (Pernem) 39.3c, Alibag 38

Mumbai Scruz : 37.5c, Colaba 36.4c, 

 Karjat (AWS): 43.7c, 

-----------------------------------------------------

Today, Ahmedabad 38.3c, Rajkot recorded 39.3c. Rajkot record of 40c on 28th February 1953 (same day) still remains intact.

Bhuj (AWS) 44.2c, Bharuch 37.4c (AWS)

------------------------------------------------------

Bikaner: 35.5C (+9)

Ajmer: 34.2C (+7)

Barmer: 38.0C (+9)

Jaisalmer: 36.6C (+9)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Shimla: 21.7C (+10)

Manali: 18.0C (+7)

Outlook for this week 14th to 17th February - Maharashtra heating up earlier than normal!

The typical 'dry summer like heat' which is witnessed in Mumbai and Konkan during late Feb/early March is being witnessed now!

Mumbai Colaba saw a max of 37.1°C yesterday (above normal by 7.1°C) with hot and dry easterly breeze in daytime. 

Santacruz was 37.3°C yesterday, above normal by 6.2°C. 

Min today morning was pleasant at 21.2°C in Colaba and 19°C in Santacruz. 

Pune witnessed a max of 32.3°C yesterday and a min of 9.3°C today morning. 

Aurangabad also saw a range of 33°C/8.1°C.

So big Day/Night variations. 

Mumbai: Next 3-4 days, max temperature will be around 37°C, and min to gradually rise to 21-22°C by Friday 17th February. Humidity to be on the lower side, dry weather. 

Interior Konkan to see max around 38-40°C, and min can be around 14-16°C, very high difference between min and max temperature.

Pune: Daytime likely to be warm around 32-33°C, increasing to 34°C by Friday 17th. Nights will be very cool around 9-10°C till Wednesday 15th and rising to around 12-13°C by Friday 17th February. 

Marathwada and Vidarbha to also see daytime temperatures rising to 34-36°C this week, while nights to gradually warm up to 15°C. 

Gujarat: Max Temperatures expected to rise to 34-36°C by 16th-17th Feb over most of the state, minimum temperature to also rise to 15-17°C from the present 12-14°C

After 2 WDs F-1 and F-2, we do not see any major WD to impact north India in the next few days. 

A high pressure ridge peaking around 500 hPa may persist over northwest part of the subcontinent this week, causing temperatures to rise over parts of west, northwest and north India. 

Above normal temperatures expected in Himalayas, chances of avalanche as temperatures to rise after recent snowfall. 

12th February 

Special Pune Information 

This February so far, till 12th, Pune Shivajinagar has already seen 5 days with maximum temperature above 34c.

Last year first above 34c temperature was recorded on 21 February...(Vagarian Vineet) 

Posted 11th Night

Hottest February on Cards for  India. ? 😨

We may be heading for record breaking hottest February for country in the recorded history

 Safdarjung today: 27.7c 5 degree above normal

 Delhi palam minimum temperature today: 16.2c, 6 degree above normal

Pune shivajinagar: 35.7c 4c above normal

Yesterday 10th

Widespread maximum temperature anomaly of greater than 5c was observed yesterday 

Jhansi: 33.4c 7c above normal

Bhopal: 32.8c 5c above normal

Gwalior: 32.7c, 7 c above normal

Jabalpur: 32.1c 5c above normal

I think it is due to presence of La Nina that feb is going to be hot

La Nina does not allows strong WD in general resulting in way above normal temperatures in absence of other teleconnections factors

For the period 12-14 Feb, a reduction of 3-4°C in maximum temperature is on the card for Haryana, Delhi NCR, and west UP. 

However, from 15 February, the maximum temperature will start rising. For the period 16 Feb-20 Feb entire west, central India, and Indo-Gangetic plains will see 4-6c above normal temperatures, with few cities likely to see maximum temperatures 7-8c above normal.

Delhi also likely to touch 31-32c between 18-20 February.

Severe heat as per February standards will heat west India central india north india between 16-21 feb.

Latest forecast indicates between 16-21 feb temperatures in central north India will be easily 7-9c above normal in many cities

Images credit IMD

Article by Vag. Vineetkumar. 

Postdoctoral Researcher
Typhoon Research Center

Jeju National University, South Korea

 Top 3 in India on 9th Feb

Maximum temperature in 24h. 02/10/2023 at 06:00 UTC
(10 of 328 stations)

1	Ratnagiri (India)	37.4 °C
2	Bombay / Santacruz (India)	36.4 °C
3	Surat (India)	36.2 °C

Anticipated rise in Mumbai temperatures on 9th

Posted 7th Night: 

Many regions of Western, Central and some parts of Northern plains of India to heat up to above normal temperatures on 9th to 11th February

Image courtesy NCMRWF

Mumbai: 

☆Mumbai will see some daytime heating from 9th - 11th February..Days rising to 34/35c. 

☆This does not indicate Summer commencing...Mumbai will continue with its "pleasant temperatures " after 12th, with comfortable nights at 18/19c. 

☆May not get the chill of 15c or below. 

☆No sweaty weather this month will be a relief for this coastal city.

Pune: 

☆A small surge in temperatures, day and night, from 9th - 11th February. 

☆Days going to 34/35c and nights at around 15c (not good enough). 

☆But summer is not yet knocking, and extreme heat is not expected till next month.

Mahabaleshwar is expected to be warm at 30c this week, with nights  at 14/15c

Thane,Panvel,Navi Mumbai...and Interior Maharashtra expected to heat up this week, to 35/37c, specially Vidharbh (Akola). 

Aurangabad Region will see days around 33/34c but nights at around 18c.

Bharuch: Days expected to get hotter this week, with the mercury touching 34/35c. Nights a little better at 18/19c. Not to be concerned yet of summer like temperatures.

As seen in image, most of Gujarat is going to warm up to 34-36c range this week.

Pune touches 34.1c today...The rise 👇

Forecast from Monday 6th to Thursday 10th February - Temperatures to rise from mid-week, giving summer-like feel during the day!

Comfortable, warm days and pleasant nights across Maharashtra may last for another 2 days, before temperature starts rising from Wednesday. 

Mumbai: Hot and dry days to continue with max around 34°C, and min around 18-19°C till Wednesday 8th. From Thursday 9th February, max and min temperatures to rise by 1-2°C, with daytime seeing very hot weather of around 36°C and min around 20°C. 

Mumbai:

  Date    Day    Night     Avg.Humidity

   6th      33c      19c          60%

   7th      33c      19c          60%

   8th      34c      20c          55%

   9th      35c      21c          50%

   10th    35c      21c          45%

Interior Konkan - Observing cool nights around 13-16°C. It will also see hot and dry weather during daytime, although nights would be much pleasant than the coastal areas. 

Pune: Warm days of 33°C and pleasant cool nights of 11-12°C may continue till Tuesday 7th Feb. Temperatures to rise from 8th, with max likely to touch 34°C from 9th February, and min rising up to 15°C.

Pune:

Date       Day       Night      Avg.Humidity

6th           33c        12c            45%      

7th           33c        13c            45%

8th           33c        13c            45%

9th           34c        15c            40%

10th         35c        15c            40%

Aurangabad: Temperatures to rise from Thursday 9th February. Max/min around 35°C and 16°C. 

Remaining Marathwada districts and Vidarbha: Rise in temperatures from Thursday 9th February - max around 35-36°C, min around 15-16°C.  

Gujarat: Rise in day and night temperatures from Wednesday 8th February. Days can get hotter up to 34-35°C, nights around 16°C across most of the state. 

Bharuch:

Warm at 33c and 18c on 6th, 7th & 8th...on 9th, 10th...Days getting hotter to 36c from 9th February.

A weak-moderate intensity Western Disturbance F-1 is affecting western Himalayan region. Heaviest snow to be in Kashmir, Ladakh and upper reaches of Himachal Pradesh (Lahaul-Spiti). 

 See World Weather News Page..World Weather Page..

New York City finally sees snow Wednesday, ending 328-day snowless streak