Pune :

After SWM withdrawal on 22nd October Overnight drop in Pune night temperatures..skipping October Heat 

 NEM 2022 Sets In...💦 🌧

 27th October..

Monsoon Free today....

ஆனால் இன்னும் 2 நாட்களில்...in 2 days...

 Happy New Year

An attempt at a brief Summary of the NEM.

The SWM onset is well defined, and follows a well coursed out Northward progress. And can be discerned with reasonable accuracy on charts.

*For the NEM, it is not so.

In fact, on many occasions, there is no clear indication between the widhrawing SWM and setting NEM. Often one tends to merge into another.

So, setting a date for the commencement of NEM is difficult, and sometimes not possible.

*The SWM has its origin, its "Power House", is at the Mascrene Highs off Madagascar. The NEM has its origin round a large anti-cyclone over Siberia.

*The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central Burma region.

*The Upper Air temperatures show a Northward gradient in the NEM.Near 10N it is normally warmest, and dropping by 8c at 30N.

*Jet streams at 200 hpa are common to both the monsoons.

In the SWM, the Tropical Easterly Jet stream dominates the Peninsula, while the Sub-tropical Westerly Jet Stream is the feature of the NEM.

*The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the Central Bay. It can extend into the Indian Peninsula as a trough.Towards the end of November,there is a shift southwards of this extended low.

-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.

*During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the South China Seas. These systems move slowly westwards thru Sarawak/Eastern Malaysia coast, and remnants of these cross over into the Bay and form depressions.

*Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.

The advent of the NEM is getting  delayed this year.
Vagaries predicts its advance by the 27th. taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM. The SWM lingered on till 23rd October 

The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. 

 24th evening 

Sitrang

 23rd Night position 

Cyclone Si-trang

Posted 23rd October 2022

As we mentioned yesterday. SWM line below 15N..Which is a sign of Monsoon withdrawal from country..

Today SWM withdraws from Country.

BB 15 now Deep Depression 

Transition from Monsoon to Winter in less than 24hrs! 

Some minimum temperatures across Maharashtra recorded in °C today morning below:

1. Mahabaleshwar IMD:13.4

2. Aurangabad:13.9

3. LoniKalbhor:14.5

4. Pashan, Pune:14.8

5. Nashik:15

6. Jalgaon:15.3

7. Ahmednagar AWS:15.5

8. Pune Shivajinagar: 15.8

9. Lohegaon:16.6

10. Satara:16.7

11. Nagpur:17.3

12. Solapur:17.5

13. Udgir:17.8

14. Nanded:18

15. Kolhapur:18.8

Data Credits: IMD

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

22nd October..2022

"Vagaries' snippet holds good this time for Mumbai Monsoon withdrawal - Monsoon over in Mumbai and Pune...set to enjoy the festivities."

Mumbai:Dry October heat in daytim due to land breeze (easterlies). Weak Sea breeze can set in later in the afternoon. Mumbai Nights can be pleasant (20-23C).

Interior konkan may see drop till 18C. 

Punekars...light woolens/jackets may be needed next week onwards as nights likely to be cool. Min can drop in the range of 15-18C around/after Diwali.  

Rest of Maharashtra - especially Marathwada and Vidarbha will see dry and slightly warm days (around 32C max) and nights can turn cooler with min around 15-18C in many districts. 

SWM retreating upto/below 15N is welcome news for NEM..

NEM Soon now

Posted 19th Night.

Mumbai/Pune: Light/Moderate rains in some parts on 20th/21st as a last attempt before the Monsoon finally withdraws by 22nd..(Almost touching the fringes of Divali !  However the most delayed withdrawal was 26th October 2010) .

Hotter October days after 23rd of 35c for Mumbai and 32c in Pune, but nights after 23rd may drop to 18/19c for Pune.

Red Line is Monsoon withdrawn as on 19th..Green Line Monsson withdrawal by 22nd.👇

Aurangabad: Monsoon will be over after 22nd..and dry winds will prevail. Temperatures around 17c at night.

औरंगाबाद : २२ तारखेनंतर मान्सून संपेल.. आणि कोरडे वारे वाहू लागतील. रात्री सुमारे 17c तापमान.

All regions of Gujarat may slightly warmer days. Nights in Saurashtra around 20/21c.and Ahmedabad 18c  

Bharuch in the range of 32c and 22c.

With the Formation of BB-15..Tracking N/NW, we will see the South West Monsoon withdrawing  from Maharashtra by 22nd. 

No meaningful rainfall in T.N, Kerala and Interior Karnatak till 25th.

NEM setting may be delayed by the N/NW tracking of BB-15.

October 18th Morning 

Torrential Thunderstorms lash Pune on 17th ...Beyond expectations. 

We said Pune will get Thunderstorms on 17th...but not like this 😲

At a glance

In mms

Annual 2022 Total at 

1)Shivaji Nagar 1067 mms...

October 219 mms (Record for October is 441 mms)

2) Bibwewadi :Annual 1261 mms.

October 390 mms.adi 

Some more rainfall figures from Pune:

Kondhwa:179mm

Sadashiv Peth:157mm

Aundh:138mm

Shukrawar Peth:132mm

Katraj:132mm

Ghorpadi:126mm

Erandwane:121mm

Baner:116mm

Sahakar Nagar:112mm

1. Bibwewadi: 186

2. WadgaonSheri:133

3. Shivajinagar AWS:127

4. Magarpatta:116

5. Hadapsar:110

6. Ozar:109

7. Koregaon Park:93

8. Pashan:92

Data Credits: IMD & RTSFROS

Compiled by Vag Abhishek 

 

West Coast lit Up 17th Evening.                  👉

Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai, Pune and north Konkan delayed till 20th October...now seems final.

However, a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea is likely to push moisture northwards towards north Konkan and up to south Gujarat on 16th/17th/18th October. 

Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane also have a chance to witness rain/thundershowers on 17th/18th. Monsoon will be over after 20th.

Monsoon was on track to withdraw from Mumbai and neighbouring regions by 17th/18th.  (Weather vagaries and Nature is forcing us to make frequent changes😡)

Pune city and outskirts can also receive thundershowers on 17th/18th.

Thunder Showers in Ghats of Nashik/Ahmednagar/Pune districts on Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th October. 

Marathwada areas of Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed, Nanded, Latur could receive rain/thundershowers in parts from Sunday 16th to Tuesday 18th October. 

Parts of Vidarbha (Akola, Amravati) districts can also get some rain from 16th-18th October. 

Along with a trough like feature in easterlies at 850 hPa, this can trigger rain/thundershowers across parts of South Gujarat (Valsad/Navsari, although chance is less). 

Forecasted surface winds and Relative Humidity for 17th

Forecasted 850 hPa winds and Relative Humidity for 17th

Yellow dashed line separates dry air and moist air regions.

After SW Monsoon withdrawal from North Konkan, entire North Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Marathwada, dry easterlies (and October heat for Konkan) could set in from 20th/21st October.

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NEM..

Bay of Bengal  witness frequent cyclonic circulations as  easterly Waves, normally anytime after 15th October. This is precursor of onset of Northeast Monsoon.

We expect a Low to emerge in the Bay around 17th...and feel North East Monsoon will resultantly set in around 21st...Simultaneous to SWM withdrawal.

14th Evening Thundershowers in Pune & Mumbai till 10.30 pm in mms

Mumbai

Vikhroli 61

Dadar 56 ..(vag.salil)

Marol 49

SantaCruz 46

Versova 43

Goregaon 42

Kurla 41

Mahalaxmi 15

Colaba 10

Vag.Vineet infirms us...For fourth staright year, Pune October rain are above normal

13th October 2022

Monsoon Season withdrawal delayed in Maharashtra. Now, finally rain strentgh slowing down for

Mumbai & Pune

" Rains gradually reducing by 15th. 

South West Monsoon completely over by 17/18thOctober in Mumbai.

19th October Monsoon over in Pune."

For North Madhya Maharashtra & North Marathwada The monsoon season will be over by 15th October. ( Also East M.P.).

Water Storage Positions:

Maharashtra State. At 90.77% of its full capacity of 40,779,220 million litres, compared to 88.00% at the same time last year. The state has 141 major dams and 3267 dams and irrigation 77.2projects in all.

Mumbai 98.56%

Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 98.77% same time last year. 

पुणे / Pune Region. At 92.66% of its full capacity of 15,211,400 million litres, compared to 88.00% at the same time last year

Aurangabad District at 88% as compared to same, 88% last year.

पैठण / Jayakwadi Dam - Paithan, Aurangabad. At 99.95% of its full capacity of 2,170,930 million litres, compared to 99.00% at the same time last year.

Konkan at 92 % as compared to 95% last year. 

And before NEM sets on, Chennai 

• 57.45%
  Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 81.11% same time last year. 191,253 million litres - current storage.
• 830 million litres
  Daily water needs of the city. Water from the lakes is supplied to the city by the Chennai Metropolis

10th October 

The trough mentioned below yesterday has formed as per IMD 10th Morning Bulletin 

Posted 9th October 9:30 pm...

FAQ Reg:Gujarat Circulation

Weak circulation seen over Saurashtra region (see image on the right) is from the cyclonic circulation which was present near north konkan 2 days back. 

This is bringing moisture from Arabian Sea and heavy unseasonal rains over parts of Saurashtra (Junagadh region). 

It can persist weakly, and a upper air trough may form over Gujarat thru South Rajasthan. Hence chance of patchy rain and thundershowers remains till Wednesday 12th October. 

Gujarat region of Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Bharuch may see some cloudiness with chance of light rain in some areas during this time. 

Dry weather expected after 12th October with SW Monsoon withdrawal from south Gujarat regions. 

9th October 

Rainfall as on 9th from BB14 remants and interaction with WD

Rainfall (in cm):

 East Rajasthan: Sewarbundh (dist Bharatpur) 23, Kotkasim SR (dist Alwar) 21, Dausa (dist 

Dausa) 18, Bharatpur Tehsil SR (dist Bharatpur) 18, Kishngarhwas (dist Alwar) 17, Sikrai & 

Baswa (dist Dausa) 16, Viratnagar (dist Jaipur) 15, Govindgarh (dist Alwar) 15, Nagar (dist 

Bharatpur) 14;

 West Uttar Pradesh: Chandausi (dist Sambhal) 19, Baheri (dist Bareilly) 16, Aligarh (dist 

Aligarh) 16, Narora (dist Bulandshahar) 14, Etah (dist Etah) 13, Sahaswan (dist Badaun) 12, 

Sadabad (dist Hathras) 12, Kasganj (dist Kasganj) 11, Moradabad Cwc (dist Moradabad) 11, 

Milak (dist Rampur) 11, Shahjahanpur (T) (dist Shahjahanpur) 11, Bareilly Cwc (dist Bareilly)

11, Sambhal (dist Sambhal) 10, Bareilly Pbo (dist Bareilly) 10, Moradabad (dist Moradabad)

10, Budaun (dist Badaun) 10, Dataganj (dist Badaun) 10, Anupshahr (dist Bulandshahar) 9, 

Jalesar (dist Etah) 9, Moradabad Obsy (dist Moradabad) 9, Nawabganj (dist Bareilly) 9, 

Vrindavan (dist Mathura) 9, Agra (Cwc) (dist Agra) 9, Auraiya (Cwc) (dist Auraiya) 9, Mawana 

(dist Meerut) 8, 

 East Uttar Pradesh: Dhaurahara (dist Kheri) 15, Palliakalan (dist Kheri) 9, Muhammadi (dist 

Kheri) 7;

 Haryana & Chandigarh: Nagina Rev (dist Nuh) 15, Palwal (dist Palwal) 13, Mandkhola Aws 

(dist Nuh) 12, Sohana (dist Gurgaon) 12, Nuh (dist Nuh) 12, Taoru (dist Nuh) 12, Faridabad 

(dist Faridabad) 11, Ballabgarh (dist Faridabad) 10, Jhirka (dist Nuh) 10, Gurgaon Aws (dist 

Gurgaon) 10, Hodal (dist Palwal) 9, Punhana (dist Nuh) 9, Hathin (dist Palwal) 8, Gurgaon 

Rev (dist Gurgaon) 8.

 Telangana: Kukatpally Jntu(arg) (dist M. Malkajgiri) 13;

 West Madhya Pradesh: Porsa (dist Morena) 11, Morena-aws (dist Morena) 11, Sabalgarh 

(dist Morena) 11, Mehgaon (dist Bhind) 10, Gormi (dist Bhind) 8, Neemuch-aws (dist 

Neemuch) 8, Dhar-aws (dist Dhar) 8, Gohad (dist Bhind) 8, Vijaypur (adp) (dist Sheopur) 8, 

 Delhi: SPS Mayur Vihar (dist East Delhi) 11, Pusa AWS (dist Central Delhi) 10, Aya Nagar

(dist South Delhi) 9, Lodi Road (dist New Delhi) 9, Safdarjung (dist New Delhi) 7, Sports 

Complex AWS (dist Northeast Delhi) 7;

 West Rajasthan: Parbatsar (dist Nagaur) 11;

Uttarakhand: Nainital & Mukteshwar (dist Nainital) 10 each, Lohaghat (dist Champawat) 9, 

Pithoragarh (dist Pithoragarh) 9, Pantnagar (dist Udham Singh Nagar) 9, Almora (dist Almora) 

8, Banbasa (dist Champawat) 8, Betalghat & Haldwani (dist Nainital) 8 each, Champawat (dist 

Champawat) 7, Kashipur (dist Udham Singh Nagar) 7

 Punjab: Ranjit Sagar Dam Site (dist Pathankot) 9;

Now let us be alert and follow the new Low that can form around Gujarat...Surprising 😮 

8th October 

Rainfall from fizzling BB14

Rained more than expected...Vagaries of the Weather ‥

This is October Rain..👇😧

Gujarat

#Mumbairains

MMR and nearby region rainfall till 8:30am on 8th October, 2022(in mm):

1.  Grant Road:226

2. Dadar(Vag Salil):205

3. Masjid Bunder:184

4. Byculla:181

5. Mahalaxmi:177

6. Marine Lines:173

7. Dombivli:169

8. Kopar Khairane:141

9. Sion:140

10. Versova & Vikhroli:134

11. Chembur:128

12. Ghansoli:125

13. Bandra:120

14. Belapur:119

15. Airoli:115

16. Santacruz IMD & Matheran:114

17. Deonar(Vag Ronnie):113

18. Vashi:110

19. Andheri:109

20. Powai:108

21. Panvel:106

22. Thane:104

23. Ram Mandir:94

24. Mumbra & Kalyan:93

25. Mulund:89

26. Virar:87

27. Palghar:86

28. Dahisar & Colaba IMD:85

29. Mankhurd:82

30. Malvani:77

31. Bhayandar:67

32. Borivali:65

33. Kandivali:64

34. Vasai:57

35. Dahanu:55

Data Credits: MCGM, IMD & Vagarians

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte

Weather scenario for Weekend 8th October to 13th October 

Rainy weather for north and west India!

Rainfall likely in east Gujarat (Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Bharuch regions) and parts of south and east

Rajasthan tonight and tomorrow.

A cyclonic circulation seen at 850 hPa over north Maharashtra causing moisture inflow from Arabian Sea, resulting in rains and delaying SWM withdrawal. 

850 hPa winds 

Moisture from this is pulled north and northeast by the winds at 500 hPa and above, bringing rain to north India. 

500 hPa winds

Moderate rain likely over Delhi and NCR region and across Uttar Pradesh till Sunday. Some places to receive heavy rain. Cool and pleasant weather for likely this weekend. 

Interaction with an incoming Western Disturbance (WD) will cause heavy rains across Uttarakhand and Nepal till Monday 10th October. 

Fresh snow over upper reaches is likely. Since weather is not cold enough like winters, chances of avalanches remain after this round of snow. 

Mumbai & Pune 

The presence of moisture and combined effects of this UAC and incoming WD will result in humid weather with chances of rain across Mumbai and Pune for next few days. 

Monsoon withdrawal may not happen before 15th October.

 

Further updates as things evolve. 

7th October Evening 6pm.

The thundershowers in Mumbai today is not unusual or alarming.  

As the movement of the low pressure system BB 14, moved across Central India, it has activated rainfall in Mumbai and Gujarat.

This resulted with an interaction with a Western Disturbance trough from North India. Hence the thunder.

This system activation was expected, and Monsoon Withdrawal date declaration held back ( see previous post).

Showers in South Mumbai and Suburbs 

Figures from 2pm to 6pm Compiled by Vag Tejas 

Cooper hosp 49mm in last 4 hrs

Versova pumping station 61mm

Jogeshwari rly station 47mm

Ram mandir 37mm

DN road municipal head office 68mm

Sobo  higher than suburbs

Mumbai MMR, Pune and Nashik district can receive thunder showers ..chance of rain/thundershowers persists over the weekend.

Mumbai Monsoon can persist into next week 

 October 5th..

Dussehra wishes to all Vagaries Readers 

It now seems we may have to neglect the weak BB 14 and concentrate on this new Low..fresh development. 

This may now alter SWM dates, and adhere to originally mentioned SWM withdrawal dates.

 NASA scientists are studying the latest satellite imagery of the storm and analyzing the forces that made the storm so catastrophic.

Very Good Images and Explanation here. (Also on World Weather News Page)

October 3rd:

South West Monsoon over in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, J & K, H.P, and Delhi.

Next withdrawal phase around 7th/9th from North Maharashtra, West M.P.

Posted on 2nd October Evening:

Mumbai: The last 3 days of the Navratri celebrations...and how is the weather going to play along ?

Hold on Monsoon still lingering.

This week ( 3rd Monday to 6th Thursday), Mumbai will see partly cloudy skies. But a few moderate (and sharp intense) thundershowers are likely. Rainfall around 10-25 mms/day  variation expected. Occurrence of the showers would be in localised in different areas of city. Possibility of an evening shower on Dussehra holds good.

Pune: also can see some light to moderate showers in the late afternoons. expected rainfall in parts of city around 5-10 mms.

For both cities, we hold on the further Forecast, as a dim chance of rain continuing into weekend holds good.

Marathwada & Vidharbh will get light to moderate rainfall this week 3rd onwards. Around 10 mms/day. Few places rain may exceed 20-30 mms/day from 5th Wednesday

Farmers are advised to cover the crops if already cut and removed for storage. As wet conditions may spoil the cut crops.

या आठवड्यात  मराठवाडाआणि विदर्भ  हलका ते मध्यम पाऊस पडेल. सुमारे 10 मिमी/दिवस. शेतकरी आधीच कापलेली आणि साठवणीसाठी काढलेली पिके झाकून ठेवू शकतात. ओल्या परिस्थितीमुळे कापलेली पिके खराब होऊ शकतात. काही ठिकाणी बुधवार 5 ऑक्टोबर पासून 20-30 मिमी/दिवस पेक्षा जास्त पाऊस असू शकतो.

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BB-14 moving towards the UAC, and could merge as explained earlier.

But, its further movement after crossing the A.P./Odisha coast should be NW.

Interacting with W.D, there will be  some rains in Central India, Bihar, U.P. Uttarakhand (East)and .Affecting upto Nepal..

We expect possibly some post Monsoon showers in Delhi this weekend.

Keeping in mind the above scenario, we hold on to the withdrawal line for a few more days.

FINAL MONSOON REPORT 2022