Monday, September 26, 2011

BB-8 anger on Nepal ! Several serious accidents and mishaps have been reported from Nepal since Sunday 25th, and Monday 26th. Incessant heavy rains have caused mud-slides and broken the Kathmandu city record. The capital received 90 mms of rain on Monday, which is the highest 24 hr total for September. The monthly total has also crossed the average. The day was chilly in Kathmandu, with the high bearly managing 18c, and the low was at 17.5c. Okhaldhunga received 97 mms.
Neeraj, would welcome some pics for our readers.

As per the caution put up on Vagaries, the rains will not last beyond 24 hrs. This could well be the final farewell from the SWM for Nepal.Shall keep you posted on the withdrawal.

The conditions of retreat all fulfilled, IMD has withdrawn the SWM from the regions slated for withdrawal (mentioned) in Vagaries yesterday.

See Mumbai Page for local weather inference.


Rajesh said...

@NT, What the Meteorology Dept. needs are qualified experts. One has to be a graduate in the subject.
A "home made" weatherman like me stands no chance of serving the dept. Thanks for the confidence and faith shown.
My sharing knowledge and interactions with my readers, all of you, brings in me a sense of satisfaction, and your patronage and views keeps me going. I can never go on alone ! Thanks.

Neeraj said...

Pics. Ok. I was not handy with my own camera today but would post some link with pics and news.

sset said...

Much of weather predictions are based on complex mathematical models, simulations. This involves massive parallel computations. Does this happen in India - reaseach and weather institutes.

Whatever it is Rajesh forcast,predictions,blogs this year 2011 was with an accuracy of 95% !!!! beats all kinds of models!

emkay said...

Many have commented how Rajesh is more accurate than IMD. Rajesh follows a democractic process to augment his own knowledge and observations i.e. he gets feedback from all of us too. IMD is a typical bureaucratic institution which will look at things theoretically and depend on observations at its locations and tools.

emkay said...

reading the Mumbai page and the well described dilemma in announcing a withdrawal SWM from Maharashtra, i would add that very rarely Navaratri period is a dry phase. So we may still see few showers this weekend/next week.

Rajesh said...

Thanks guys. Emkay, I endorse your point, contributions ,from Mumbai and from other places always help in filling up the missing parts of a puzzle. In fact, one has to rely more on actual observations, on site, from our friends in other cities, because, that gives a better picture of the on-the-spot situation.
Over the years, I have got accustomed to physical weather obserevations for local forecasting, than satellite images (which were not available during the initial years).

@emkay. I too have noticed that on an average 2/3 nights during Navratri do get washed off. This year, as discussed yesterday, we may see the other parameters of withdrawals linger in the North, and take some time to rush into Mah. Thereby allowing the ridge over Mah. to get favourable to precipitate Thundershowers. Very much possible, as I still see a couple of farewell heavy thundershowers for Mumbai.

And, I see only one reason for the UTH being so low over Delhi. The gushing of the westerly jet streams (again, withdrawal of SWM parameter) over N.India. Not an expert on Upper Air Meteorology.

 See World Weather News Pag e .. World Weather Page.. New York City finally sees snow Wednesday, ending 328-day snowless streak