Monday, August 22, 2011

Monsoon Axis moves Northwards again and crashes into the Himalayas. Cannot be too sure about another system in the bay within a few days, as the eastern end of axis is far too North.

More active monsoon in Utteranchal and western Nepal. Increase in central regions also possible. Easterlies may bring precipitation in Northern U.P. and Bihar.

Current subdued rainfall in Kathmandu may reactivate Tuesday. Kathmandu showed a max temperature of 28.5c. Expecting some rains to drop the day'shigh slightly fro the next 2 days. But, the capital is still short of its august average rainfall by 135 mms. Seems theis month will remain in the deficit.

But the rest of the region below the axis can expect subdued rains next 2 days (Tuesday/Wednesday). Due to absence of any systems, conditions for systems' originating rainfall may decrease.

Due to excess moisture contents, next 2 days, may witness some independent convective developments in the Mah. region giving rise to thunder cells and cb clouds. Thundershowers may pop up in Madhya Mah. (Nasik, Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, Pune, Satara and Solapur regions), and Eastern Goa.
North Konkan may get heavy rain in patches.

Save Southern and Eastern Gujarat, most of the state will not get meaningfull rains Tuesday/Wednesday.

Precipitation in the Sindh region moves west as anticipated, with Karachi receiving some rains on Monday afternoon. Expected to decrease considerably from tonite.


svt said...

Most forecast model expecting average daily rainfall of 30 mm till friday & then increase in rain from sat/sunday onwards for mumbai except one who expecting 70 mm rain for tomorrow. Not sure that will happen. And what will be the future path of Hurricane Irene, will it hit US coast?

Rajesh said...

Hello svt: Its been sometime since i've heard from you.Vagaries running out of favour ? -:)
For a perfect update on Irene, follow Mark...i am not keeping track of this storm.

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...