Sunday, August 28, 2011

If one recalls, vagaries had anticipated a "deepening " of the upper air axis by sunday, and precipitate heavy rains along its line. Well, deepened it has, but, the axis has moved a bit more to the North than expected, and as per the IMD special bulletin, "it passes through north Arabian Sea, south Gujarat, north Maharashtra, south Chattisgarh, Orissa."

And consequently the rainfall has moved into Gujarat, and is spreading into adjoining Sindh region. Precipitation is seen all along the axis to the East (see image above).

I would estimate rainfall intensity reducing in Mah. and increasing on Monday towards West M.P. and North Gujarat and, again, specially Kutch.

Rains have already spread into Kutch.

Karachi may now get its rains sooner than expected, maybe from Monday evening ? In fact, Karachi was hot and stuffy on Sunday, with the temperatures ranging between 34c and 28c.


emkay said...

seems something happened which is against your prediction. mumbai seems to be inundated without any respite to rains. any new prediction

Rajesh said...

emkay:i could go wrong, its the "vagaries of the weather". But, my forecast put up was -
"Monday: Frequent heavy showers, decreasing by evening. Rain amount 35-50 mms.
Very heavy rains Saturday thru Monday in satellite townships of Mumbai, and in Matheran and Lonavala."
"Rain decreasing on Monday "
so lets wait till evening -:)))

emkay said...

just pulling ur leg, Master !!
its brightening at Panvel now, but then damage has been done for the day. that trains stopped inspite of low tide aroun 0530 AM shows the precipitation.

Anonymous said...

no rain at borivali for last 90 mins!!

Shitij said...

Areas around Surat city ( i.e. within 30 km) are receiving continuosly heavy rainfall but Surat city is not receiving heavy rainfall.Yesterday Surat city measured only 4 mm of rainfall but the areas around Surat city have received more than 6 inches of rainfall. On saturday also Surat city measured 17 mm of rainfall but the areas around Surat have again received more than 6 inches of rainfall. Why there is such a vast difference?

svt said...

If I am right Mumbai (scz) now got almost 500mm/20inch of rains since friday. Now we can safely say that rains will decrase for now. Will the westwards movement of uac off orissa coast once again brings rains in mumbai? I doubt, it certainly won't be this heavy.

Anonymous said...

Hi, for the next couple of days forecast - ie. tues/wed could you please cover a bit of rajasthan too - udaipur/nathdwara?

Rajesh said...

svt: Since Friday morn to Mon morning, Colaba got 305 mms and S'Cruz 535 mms.
Shall monitor further systems and keep vagaries updated. Please continue with your views.

Neeraj said...

What's the outlook for up north, around Nepal for the next few days? It seems Kathmandu will not get its August average rainfall, will be short by around 30 mms. The feel here is as if monsoon is coming to an end, with fresher wind blowing from the west and evening/night thundershowers. No persistent monsoon type rain now.And the temperature is fluctuating, very hot during the day and suddenly thundershowers develop in the evening/night and it gets a lot fresher. This is more end-monsoon weather rather than typical august weather which should be rather humid with moderately hot temperature and persistent drizzle type rain.

RK said...

clear skies with zero cloud cover from last few days in Delhi and entire north india, Is the early end of monsoon in sight for northern plains??

Rajesh said...

emkay: I do not know much abt the doppler working. But close range is working well , and all segments are clear.When i called up IMD Colaba, they asked me to call on Wed to answer doppler related queries !
Shitij: Impossible to answer as to why a region in Surat dist got lesser rain. Next door Navsari got 460 mms yesterday, and Dahanu, technically not very far off, got 21 mms, while other places in Thane dist received 160-200 mms !

19th October... Heavy Rains likely again in Kerala and South Karnataka (read Bangalore) from 21st - 23rd  October...Then SWM may withdraw.. ...