Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The UAC in the Northern Arabian Sea has descended, on Tuesday, as a low, AS-2, over Gujarat and adjoining Arabian Sea. Currently at 1000 mb, it is expected to deepen to 998 mb by Wednesday and further to 996 mb.

In the Kutch region , where rains were anticipated, Bachau had 149 mms, Mundra 82 mms,Mandvi 52 mms, and various places between 40-50 mms till Tuesday morning. These are high figures for a desert region.

We see intense clouding and precipitation in the Western and NW segments of AS-2. Heavy rainfall amounting to 244 mms was recorded on Tuesday in Padidan, Sindh. Nawabshah (SIndh) notched up 102 mms and Lasbella 50 mms.

AS-2, is expected to strengthen to 998 mb and move slightly Westwards, thereby precipitating more rains in lower and coastal Sindh on Wednesday. Rain amounts in certain palces could again cross 100 mms.
By Thursday, AS-2 could deepen to 996 mb, and position itself still Westwards off the Gujarat coast. Precipitation would continue in coastal Sindh and interiors on Thursday also.

Karachi was cloudy on Tuesday with a high of 33c after overnight thunderstorm. Karachi would be cloudy on Wednesday, with a few spells of heavy rain. Thursday would also see a few showers, again, some heavy and rains up to 20-25 mms..

Meanwhile, in the Bay, BB-5, is persisting in the same area on Tuesday, off the North A.P./Orissa coast, at 1000 mb. Would now expect system to move inland and position itself over Orissa by Wednesday. Further movement could be towards M.P.

Resultantly: Heavy rains on Wednesday over coastal A.P, Orissa, and parts of E.Chattisgarh due to BB-5.
In the west, heavy rains in Kutch, coastal Saurashtra due to AS-2.

For Thursday, BB-5 will bring rains to Eastern M.P. and Vidharbha.
AS-2 will bring increasing rains along coastal Saurashtra and North Konkan.

Mumbai: Tuesday the city show a marked decrease in rains, with a few showers spraying 1 mm in Colaba and 9 mms for S'Cruz.

Wednesday would be partly cloudy with sunny spells, and a few odd showers. Rain amount 15- 20 mms.

Thursday: Cloudy, with occasional showers, indicating an increase in rainfall over Wednesday. The odd evening showers could be heavy. Rain amount 30 mms.

Pune will be cloudy with drizzles in some parts on wednesday.

Thursday will be cloudy, with a couple of medium intensity spells of rain.


Neeraj said...

I say, sadly, its not going to be more than 270mm in Kathmandu this august, i was hoping for a bit more, something like 350 mm .September is next. Average is around 180 mm. I hope that June,July,August,September average total of 1147 mm is reached. Looking at the situation now, it does not seem likely,but as i say "average is average because it is average". there is a likelihood that average is maintained, some years it rains a little less, some years a little more, but it would be near the average.

Tyrone said...

Rajesh how do you tell whether a system like AS2 currently in north Arabian sea will deepen further in this case to 996 mb?

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