Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Fairly good rainfall occured in the eastern Gujarat districts of Vadodra, Sabarkantha and Panchmahal on Monday/Tuesday. Saurashtra areas was devoid of much rain.
Due to good wind shear in its south, almost 50 knts, The low pressure over West M.P. has moved into Southern region of Rajasthan. As a result of the Maximum Level of free convection coming down to 1000 metres, we see very good clouding in the Southern and SE segment.
Due to favourable conditions, the low may deepen a bit more on Wednesday.
Result will be heavy rains in Northern Gujarat and Kutch region on Wednesday. Heavy rains will continue in Kutch on Thursday, with around 150 mms expected in some places in a 24 hr period till Thursday.
As the low is expected to merge with the seasonal low, I think we can expect very heavy downpours in the Barmer and Western Rajasthan areas.
The deserts are to receive heavy rains next 2 days !
Across the border, areas of Lower Sindh will receive heavy rains from Wednesday, and Thursday Karachi will see some sharp rain showers. Some showers in the city could be heavy, as the system shows tendency to strengthen tomorrow and remain so for the next 36 hrs.
20-25 mms of rain won't be out of place.
Elsewhere, in the Peninsula, or the Northern and Eastern states (barring the NE), I do not see any heavy or widespread rainfall till Friday. Will continue to remain low intensity.
Rains will be easing off in Nepal, for a few days.
Mumbai forecast put up yesterday for Wed/Thu remains valid.
19th October... Heavy Rains likely again in Kerala and South Karnataka (read Bangalore) from 21st - 23rd October...Then SWM may withdraw.. ...