Thursday, August 18, 2011

Mumbai/Pune/Mahableshwar weekend forecast on Mumbai Page.

Thursday 18th, the monsoon axis runs thru Punjab, South U.P. and thru W.Bengal Kolkata into the Bay. So, it is a little north of the normal position. It is not actually in a break monsoon position. It was expected to go further north into the Himalayan foothills, but the eastern end has dipped into the bay, and kept the axis positioned as it is today.

The off shore trough along the west coast strengthens a bit, with a vortex upto-30 embedded in the trough off Goa/ Karnataka coast. That would mean the axis could shift south again.
IMD mentions the formation of a UAC in the NW Bay.

Apperantly, The Australian Bureau of Meteorology mentions that "that an MJO event will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean" in the current week. That would analyse into the MJO entering into an active phase sometime between 18th to 22nd August. If it so happens, it would be reverting back to our original forecast.

On Thursday during the day, some rainfall was measured in H.P, U.P, Bihar and parts of Bengal as a result of the axis line. Some particular places in South Konkan saw a max of 5 cms.
Bareilly (U.P.) Alibag ­5 each, Mumbai (Santacruz), Ratnagiri, Bhira, Agumbe and Vengurla­4 each,
Behraich, Sultanpur, Passighat, Honavar­3 each and Shimla, Fursatganj, Patna, Siliguri, Mandla, Surat, Mumbai (Colaba)­2 each.

Looking at the situation, I would forecast for Friday/Saturday:
1. Heavy rainfall along the S.Konkan, Goa and Karnataka coast due to the vortex. Rain amounts would amount to 120-150 mms in 24 hrs period.
North Konkan and South Int. Karnataka would get some moderate rains amounting to 50-75 mms in 24 hrs.
2. Due to the UAC, heavy rainfall in coastal Orissa and North A.P. coast. Moderate rainfall upto 25-35 mms in Vidharbh.
3. Decreasing rainfall in Northern India and Nepal.

Northern regions of Pakistan received some rain on Thursday. Karachi saw a high of 33c. Do not see any change, except a further decrease in current rainfall, in Pakistan next 2 days.


Thursday,18th, Mumbai saw some heavy afternoon/evening showers in some areas. While Vikhroli measured just 8 mms during the day till 10 pm, Deonar recorded 24 mms, Andheri notched up 37 mms and Colaba 22 mms.

Friday: Cloudy, with brighter intervals. 4/5 showers, a couple of them heavy in some areas. Rain amount (average Colaba/S'Cruz): 20-25 mms.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with sunny intervals. A couple of showers with rain amounts up to 20 mms.

Mumbai/Pune weekend forecast tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

please go through this article & your reporting one day about lakes level

Rajesh said...

Anonymous: Thanks a lot for drawing my attention. It was a typo error, instead of "9" i typed "6". Must check and re-read my blog before publishing..sorry for the error and thanks again.

Anonymous said...

here we're having pretty good rains & heavy rumblings since the past hour. turned pretty dark too.


Rajesh said...

Some places in Interior Karnataka get good showers on Friday. Gadag 93 mms,Gulbarga 36 mms,Koppal 33 mms and Bellary 5 mms.

Rajesh said...

Satyen: Thanks for the feedback.

Outlook for next week till Thursday 29th February: Temperatures expected to rise across Maharashtra and Gujarat. Chance of thunderstorms for...