Friday, August 26, 2011

Updated 3.30 pm Saturday

Two UACs, one west of Gujarat in the Arabian Sea, and another over South-East M.P. is now established as on Saturday morning, at 700 hpa level. Hence, the upper air trough now runs thru joining these 2 UACs. Vagaries anticipated this development to be “complete” by Sunday (as mentioned on ..), but everything is a day ahead of schedule ! (At least something runs ahead of schedule !)

Consequently, precipitation is good along this axis, and in the event of this, it is quite possible that these 2 systems remain for another 24 be seen though.

Mumbai rainfall: Colaba up to Saturday 8.30 am : 38 mms, and from 8.30 am to (Saturday) 3pm: 35 mms.

S’Cruz.. 83 mms and 86 mms. Respectively.

Thane received 10 cms of rain overnite.

Amongst the Lakes supplying water to Mumbai, Vihar got 148 mms, Tulsi 121 mms, Tansa 68 mms Modaksagar 61 mms, Bhatsa 56 mms and Vaitarne 30 mms upto Saturday morning.

Updated at 5 am Saturday:

It seems the current upper air monsoon axis is set to deepen, to some extent. As per estimates, by Sunday, it will host 2 embedded UACs, one in the arabian Sea south of Karachi, and another over Central Mah, that is on the 2 ends of the trough.

This development would substantially increase precipitation along the "deep" axis, and would be excetionally heavy where the UAC would be positioned. Various models differ slightly to the actual placing of the axis and the UACs embedded in it.

On Friday, a UAC has formed and is over Orissa. The upper air monsoon axis line at 5.8 kms passes through north Arabian Sea, north Maharashtra, south Chattisgarh, Orissa.

It can be deciphered, that from Saturday, thru Monday, heavy rains could be expected along Mah. coast, madhya Mah, marathwada, adjoining south M.P. and adjoining south and coastal Gujarat. Lesser intensity rains would occur in Vidharbh.

Come Saturday, the satellite colour map of Saturday morning indicates the rains have commenced in the regions mentioned above.

Bharuch could get good rainfall Saturday thru Tuesday, around 100 mms accumulated.



Saturday: Forecasted rains are in a hurry, and have moved in early on Saturday. Morning hours, showers, getting heavy and more frequent. Rain amount 70-80 mms.

Sunday: Fairly frequent heavy showers, with intermittent drizzles. Heavy showers may flood some prone areas. Thunder possible in afternoon/evening. Rain accompanied by gusty winds. Rain amount 70-80 mms.

Monday: Intermittent rains, heavy at times. decreasing by evening. Rain amount 35-50 mms.

From Saturday thru Monday, all lakes supplying water to Mumbai will get a cumulative rainfall of 150-200 mms each, and upper Vaitarna will get very heavy rains as in Nasik district.

Very heavy rains Saturday thru Monday in satellite townships of Mumbai, and in Matheran and Lonavala.

Matheran and Panvel could receive heavy rains on Friday night also.

Weekend rains will be heavy in districts of Nasik, Jalgaon (very heavy), Aurangabad, Akola and moderate in Pune and Nagar districts.

Next 2 days, Situation as it develops will be reviewed on vagaries.


Vagaries readers interested in chasing Hurricane Irene, Please keep checking Mark’s Blog for Constant Update


Tyrone said...

What about Sind ,Karachi?

Anonymous said...

Could you put up forecast for Mumbai Water Supply Lake areas also
like Tansa Bhatsa Upper Vaitarna Etc I will Highly Appreciate Your Efoort For this Also

Thnak You Very Much For This in Advance

Anonymous said...

Thanks for ur forecast comments regarding my queries for lakes forecast pl do keep it up for all lakes in future also

Anonymous said...

If your forecast for lakes goes right I believe upper vaitarna tansa will overflow & Bhatsa will be short by 1 or 2 meters short of overflow level............

sset said...

Rajesh/Pradeep ->
Non stop torrential runs pounding Mumbai - Maharashtra. With all means rains will cross 3000mm by end of august itself. all lakes will overflow. With september still left will 2011 rains break 2010 record??????

Meanwhile Pradeep - what is your analysis on NE monsoon to hit south? Earlier we were under impression august will end and september will start withdrawl of SW monsoon- but with La-Nina, lows over west/east coast hitting Maharashtra - will this happen??? Last year NE monsoon was almost very less for TamilNadu - infact only 1cyclone which failed to rain.

September is peak season for south interior Karnataka to rain - but this year do we see any such affinity? All lows,UACs always over central belt leaving south dry.

Can we have position of cauvery - lifeline for south india?


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