Sunday, August 14, 2011

BB5 is situated at the tri -border of South-West U.P./North M.P./East Rajasthan. Though at sea level, its upper air circulations exten upwards into 850 mb and 700 mb.
There are reports of heavy precipitation near and around the BB5 area.

Next few days, 15th and 16th, the system will track NW towards Delhi, and over Delhi it will precipitate heavy rains in the capital on both these days.
Tracking Northwards, we can expect good precipitation around Wed/Thursday in Haryana, Punjab, Uttrakhand and H.P. Also, expect good precipitation in Punjab and Northern regions of Pakistan.
Substantial increase in rains in Kathmandu from Monday thru Wednesday.

Once the system fizzles out in the Himalyas, and the monsoon axis shifts North, it will almost be like a break monsoon situation (for the Peninsula region) from Thursday 18th/Friday 19th.

Meanwhile, the UAC currently weak over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, will fade away in the next 24 hrs over the current position. Rainfall decreasing sharply in Gujarat and across the border in Sindh.

New Zealand In Grip Of Memorable Icy Blast…See International Page of Vagaries and Mark’s Blog


Neeraj said...

good to know rains are coming. There have been reports of season's first snowfall in higher reaches of western Nepal. There have been many landslides too like this one in the north east of the country :

Anonymous said...

Thank God. a week or so of dry would really be welcome. my this years plantations had started rotting in the excess rains!


svt said...

@Rajesh You were expecting average of 600 mm for August for Mumbai but will it happen? It doesn't look like it will rain much atleast untill 22th August. may have to wait for last week of august for heavy rain.

sset said...

As usual Rajesthan and Gujrat have recevied excess torrential rains during August. Pattern of last few years is being repeated [excess over these regions and probably in few years deserts will dissappear- fertile dense forest will emerge]

Below prediction from Anand Agr University - panchang.

Anand Agricultural University’s monsoon calendar has predicted that Gujarat will get 24% excess rains. The statewill get around 988 mm of rain against average of 828 mm, claims the forecast.
The calendar known for publishing rainfall predictions for every day of the season is published in Gujarati and is called the ‘Panchang’.

A unique aspect of this calendar is that its predictions are based not only on scientific meteorological data but also on astrological indicators such as the ‘movement’ of planets through the 27 constellations (nakshatras). Its words carry great weight with the state’s farmers who refer to it not only to know when it will rain but also for advice on the best agricultural practices for various crops.

Talking about the forecasts made in the monsoon calendar, Prof Vyas Pandey, head of department of Agricultural Meteorology, said that they had divided Gujarat into four zones for their predictions: North Gujarat, South Gujarat, Central Gujarat and Saurashtra. The predictions for a day are made after extensive study of the position of 27 nakshatras and the nine ‘grahas’ on that particular day, he said.

“Our analysis suggests that there will be around 124 mm of rainfall in the month of June which is not much. The situation will be similar in July, but in August and September, there will be excess rainfall,” Pandey said.

He said that, this year, they had also mentioned in the calendar the estimated rainfall for different zones of Gujarat. An analysis of the data on rainfall indicated that there will be 13% excess rain in central Gujarat, 42.8% more in Saurashtra, 24% excess rain in South Gujarat and 15% more than the average rainfall in North Gujarat, Pandey said.

On average, Gujarat would get 24% excess rain, he added. "We will start issuing instructions according to the calendar for farmers of different regions. Our suggestions will deal with preparation of land, the sowing pattern, seed crop, different crop diseases and how they can be prevented," Pandey said.

Whether it will rain on a particular day or not is indicated by the use of colour in the monsoon calendar. White colour, for instance, indicates 'no rain', yellow predicts little rain, green is for normal rain and the blue colour indicates heavy rain. The mere use of colour (of course, other than white) for a particular date indicates the possibility of rainfall on that day.

Further, the calendar also includes advice on agricultural matters such as use of pesticides, appropriate technology, and seeds and fertilizer for seasonal crops that farmers should use for best results.

Any positive result for south - Rayalseema acute water problem - heat and drought strikes - Natures mercy???

sset said...

Add to above...

In this age of scientific weather analysis with complex mathemical simulation how true does astrolgical predictions hold???


Pradeep said...

Dam Levels in Tamil Nadu as on 15.08.2011

35 (Power Generation, Irrigation and Drinking purpose) dams compiled.

The South west monsoon is a failure in most of the district of Tamil Nadu except in Chennai, Tiruvallur, Coimbatore and Nilgiris. The reservoirs which give water supply to Chennai have better storage compared to last year figures. Some big dams in Coimbatore district such as Sholayar, Parambikulam, Upper Aliyar and Thunnakkadavu are full or nearing full capacity. Except 4 districts quoted above, the storage is not looking good. But the good thing is during the past week SWM is getting active in these central and coastal districts wihch has got below normal rains. Before the NEM starts, the storage will improve further.

RK said...

Huge rains in Delhi and neighbourhood from past few days....awesome weather....

Rajesh, your forecasts are always accurate...thanks for such a nice blog...keep going...

Rajesh said...

RK, Thanks, and this feedback and support keeps me going.
Pradeep: Thanks for the figures and water up date of T.N.
Situation will only depend on the NE monsoon now.
sset: I am no expert, in fact have zero knowledge on astrology and forecasts made on astrology basis. cannot comment.

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