While,June has been an above normal rainfall period for the country as a whole with a cumulative rainfall departure of +9%, there were regional variations in the rainfall pattern with north east and southern peninsular India ending with below normal rains.
Meanwhile, the latest sub-seasonal scale forecasts from global NWP models for the next 2 weeks indicate that the pattern of monsoon rainfall anomalies over India and the larger south Asia could be exhibiting regional differences. While the forecasts continue to indicate an active rainy spell for much of the core monsoon zone (central India) due to an active Monsoon Trough with frequent westward propagating transient lows, the peninsular India could be under the influence of suppressed rainfall conditions.
With the onset phase of the current year's South Asian Monsoon now drawing to an end, the 3D large scale monsoon circulation associated with it is now completely established as seen from the latest available observations. Several semi-permanent features like the large scale upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient, Tropical easterly jet, low level monsoonal westerlies, large scale upper level divergence over NW Pacific, Mascarene High, Monsoon trough,etc., have all established. One can see a completely established Baroclinic atmospheric structure over South Asia. Interesting days ahead with anomalies across spatial and temporal scales that would interact with this established Monsoon background.
Mumbai: Increase in rainfall frequency from Saturday 5th.
Occasional heavy showers.
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