Tuesday, October 07, 2014

BB-12 at 11.5N and 94E...deepened at estimated 1000 mb and 30 knts core winds...Map and estimated track tonite at 11 pm IST..

And, As forecasted, Thanks to the WD, Islamabad also got its winter showers Tuesday...currently (6.30 pm IST) thunder shower with strong winds ( 48 kmph) and 24c...Murree also getting rains at 15c...cool !

Thundery developments in Eastern Skies as forecasted....Single Thunder Cell approaches North Mumbai and Outer townships from NE.....Not much rains though except Extreme North townships....and Badlapur. 
Northern Parts of Mumbai got light rain...Santa Cruz measured 4 mms ..no rains in central and South Mumbai.

Ghatkoper Mumbai at 6 pm.Sent by Cmdr Potey

Abhijit reports of heavy rains in Badlapur. see video Link

Tuesday Noon

BB-12 has moved very little since last reporting, nor has it deepened much. Of course, its strength should increase once it crosses the bay islands.
At 11.5N and 95.3E, its estimated core pressure is 1003 mb and estimated winds at 20 knts.
Some cloud bands are getting spiral in the Southern Quadrant, where winds are picking up. Northern segment remains haphazard with vertical wind shear at 10-20 knts.
Port Blair recorded 43 mms till 8.30 am IST Tuesday.
Track may be maintained at NW direction from the Bay Islands.

And, What is this " odd individual fellow" doing so close to Mumbai ??  


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Abhijit Modak said...

I personally don't feel it was an odd fellow near Mumbai. As offically Monsoon is "ON" below 20N ! Quote from IMD mid day bulletin says 'The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon passes through Lat.27.0°N Long.87.0°E,  Forbesganj, Gaya, Rewa, Hoshangabad, Malegaon, Dahanu, Lat.20.0°N Long.70.0°E and Lat.20.0°N/Long.60.0°E.

And also Nashik which is on 20N is getting TS on 3rd straight day today. LWD is seen on western ghat from 20 N to Bangalore latitude 13N.

sset said...

Guess they are thunder cells - cannot be low pressure as in models we do not see any close isobars. Anyway "NAVI MUMBAI" super heavy winds with rains...like cyclone.

sset said...

Abhijit is correct.

VISHWAS said...

Now rain started ones again in Santa Cruz.
Light to midum..
With some gusty wind


raining moderate to heavy rains in mira road currently

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: I mentioned Monsoon withdrawal line (shown in Vagaries) as per the winds and upper winds and OLR parameters.
LWD line can activate and thermals can always create cb clouds by radiation activity, and its common when moisture remnants are present. Thats why i mentioned ( in Monday forecast) thunder cells near Mumbai on Tuesday and Wed forecast. Its a occurrence not uncommon to post monsoon activity.

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: anyway, what you say about IMD Monsoon statement is also correct...Thanks for the information.

Abhijit Modak said...

Thanks Sir for an explanation.

Heavy Rain with huge lightning, thundering & strong gusty winds lashed Badlapur between 5.20pm to 6.20pm today. Rain rate was very heavy for 15 mins as visibility drop to 500mtrs. 25 mms recorded in 15mins. And total 40mm rainfall in 1hr spell. Temp got drop to 23c. So nice cool weather.

Junaid said...

New Panvel recorded 8 mm of rain ending 8 :30 am today.

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