Thursday, October 02, 2014

Posted Thursday 2nd October, Afternoon:

Chances of a UAC forming in the Arabian Sea are diminishing.
A strong anti cyclone ( High) at sea and upper level will dominate and set in over the North Arabian Sea and Central and Western India.
High pressure will set in over the region North of 20N.
200 level jet streams are also setting in as Westerlies.
This will initiate withdrawal of South West Monsoon from Gujarat, MP, rest of UP and North Maharashtra very quickly, maybe within next 3 days.

Mumbai will see a decrease in rains from Friday, and getting dry, as Monsoon withdraws from City by Saturday/Sunday. Dussera will be warm at 35c, and getting cloudy by evening in some parts.
North/NW winds setting in by then will reduce humidity and bring warmer days. Fall in night temperatures in inland regions.
Pune might get some "lingering" thunder shower in some regions till drop in night temperatures to 16/18c from Monday morning.

Delhi NCR will have a hot Dussera at around 36/37c. Nights will start getting cooler gradually to around 21c from Monday (next) week.
Kolkata, the important Dussera day will see the odd thunder shower in some pockets. Next Tuesday or Wednesday might see a strong "end" storm.

Looking at the above situation, we can expect an Easterly Wave to form in the South or Central Bay around 7th/8th October. We will have to wait and see the strength of the Wave, to determine if the wave acn host a Low. NEM estimate can then be forecasted and estimated.

NW winds will prevail over the NW Indian Plains and Delhi next few days till Sunday. However, SW winds will be maintained over Sindh and upto the Pak Punjab region. This could initiate an odd thunder squall in Pak Punjab and North Pakistan regions.


Unknown said...

sir when will monsoon withdraw form nagothanae raigad didstrict. are chances of rain zero today and from nowonwards sad.will no uac form now? imd saying that monsoon will withdraw from the city of mumbai around the 10th. then how so much early. sir please tell your opinion about on your comment. thanks in advance.

Rajesh said...

abizer: I would say rains decrease from Sunday. Keeping the required 3 days gap, Monsoon would officially withdraw from North Konkan around 7th October...Yes, even Raigad district..

Navi Mumbai Hails...copy paste link to see reports

Video of yesterdays hails at MBP Park, Airoli Thane.

Anonymous said...

Sir,why the persistent cloudy weather and increase in moisture content over major parts of NW India and adjoining regions; even though monsoon has withdrawn upto central UP?

Vinod Desai said...

Sir Would we get more thundershowers because I was thinking we will get 5-6 days thundershowers but we have only got 1 day effectively.

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