Saturday, October 25, 2014

Sunday 2.30 pm IST: 
Cyclone now located at 14.4N and 62.6E...winds estimate 35 knts. Classified as Cyclone Nilofer..

Seeing dry air in the West (near Oman) and slowly covering towards South of System...Track will now follow the NW route for some time...firm banding seen as core winds start increasing...500 level trough narrowing, and Sub tropical ridge pushing system Northwards..

Rains start in Oman from Tuesday,specially in southern Oman. Wednesday rains increase. Muscat sees rains and windy conditions on Wednesday 29th. Cool day at 27c on Wednesday.
As Cyclone  curves to East, rains decrease in Oman from Thursday.

Next Update 12 midnight Sunday...

Super rains lash Andhra Pradesh for 2nd day, ending 8.30 am on 26.10.2014The depression intensified into a Deep Depression and lays about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours

in mm (min 90 mm)

Macharla - 293
Pondugula - 249
Udayagiri - 214
Varikuntapadu - 201
Koppunuru - 195
Jangameswaram - 185
Kolukula - 171
Panchalingala - 169
Pedagarlapadu - 161
Veldurthi - 158
Mutukuru - 156
Akumalla - 149
Rentachintala - 146
Vetapalem - 142
Kadavakuduru - 133
Devarampadu - 118
Sanikavaram - 118
Narmalapadu - 117
Perusomala - 117
Bapatla - 114
Pullalacheruvu - 111
Vijayapuri South - 109
Karedu - 107
Rentachintala - 106
Yerragondapalem - 104
G.Singavaram    103
Karamchedu - 97
Rachakonda - 95
Bandlamodu - 94
Salur - 92
Gummanampadu - 91
R.B.Puram - 90
Pakala - 90
Nandyal - 90

Latest Maharshtra Temperature Image on Rohit's Page

Posted Sunday Morning:

Sunday morning, AS-1, a Deep Depression,  is now in the complex situation we had estimated it to be 4 days ago !...Recalling, we had discussed that by 26th, the system would be in this situation, and its track would be determined depending on the upper streams wind flow (See chart given on 22nd October )...

Today, AS-1 is trapped between the High in the NW and another in the SE...

Sunday Morning: Located at 14.2N and 63.0E, having moved NE. On Sunday morning it is at the second red spot in the Vagaries forecast chart (See below, NE of Saturday position).Its estimated core winds are at 35 knts. System has started showing a clear centre now in finer imageries. The trough in the 500 levels is expected to persist on Sunday.

Vagaries expects it to follow the forecasted track in Vagaries. { Do we see dry air "trying to encircle it ? This is a real testing system ! }
Next Update @ 3.30 pm IST..Sunday

Mumbai: Sunday will be cloudy and cooler at around 28c..few light to medium rain showers in parts. 
Pune: Overcast and light showers in the day. Some heavier showers in ceratin parts. Day will be around 22/23c.
Mahableshwar will be overcast and foggy, with some showers. Cold day.

Goa will be overcast with persisting rain. Rainfall will be less than past few days, but can expect around 50 mms by Monday morning. Cool day at around 28c.
See Vagaries Goa for Latest Updates

Posted Saturday at 10.30 pm IST:

AS-1 moving along the track given of now...on Saturday night located at 13.3N and 62.5E, thus having moved NE from previous location...Strength constant.
Next update 9.30 am IST Sunday..

Due to a trough in the 700 mb and 500 levels over Maharashtra, a huge mass of cloud has been attracted towards the inland areas....

Light rains ( between 3-10 mms) was measured in a number of cities, highest being 14 mms at Kolhapur.and cooling occurred..Some Maximum day temperatures of Maharastra cities on Saturday:
Mahableshwar 15.6c, Pune AP 22.9c, Satara 22.8c, Pune and Buldana 23.0c, Kolhapur 23.2c, Aurangabad 24.0c, 
Mumbai Colaba saw 28.5c and Scruz 29.0c.
Vagaries had predicted around 29c and a cold day not exceeding 25c for Pune.

Posted 25th October @ pm IST..

AS-1 is currently located as a Depression at 12.5N and 61.3E. Estimated core pressure at 1000 mb and estimated core winds at 30 knts..soon will be upgraded to a Deep Depression. The Upper level trough with strong westerlies have pulled in moisture over the Central India region from the circulation, and hence moved in medium to high clouds over the West Coast, N.I.Karnataka , Maharashtra , MP, Gujarat and Chattisgarh. See Image of Mid upper trough

As we discussed a few days back, the situation would get better (for judging the track) from 25th. 
It seems now, that AS-1 will somewhat follow our Vagaries track "B". 
Deep Depression would initially track NW, after a brief NE track) and most probably would go as far West as around 59/60E, where it encounters drier air mass, and re curve first NE and then E/NE towards Gujarat. As per current scenario, would estimate it to head as a cyclone ( Nilofer) towards Saurashtra tip, Okha /Dwarka. Maybe around 30th October. Current state of weather shows winds increasing to 70 knts in next 48 hrs.

Southern Oman gets heavy rains from Monday night thru Wednesday, as the system "skirts " the coast. Muscat can get showers on Tuesday

Mumbai is overcast with medium/High clouds, and occasional drizzles. Currently at 28c, which should be the max for the day. Expect some showers Saturday evening and Sunday. Should be decreasing from Sunday evening.
Pune getting frequent light showers also. Showers Saturday thru Sunday till Evening.

Vagaries Goa reports of torrential rains in Goa. Margao saw 123 mms, Quepem 60 mms and Panji 20 mms. till Saturday morning. More on Vagaries Goa.
Goa sees showers continuing till Tuesday.
  This is Vagaries' view and estimate, not binding, and not to be used for commercial purposes. 

3rd day of heavy unseasonal rains in Karnataka, ending 8.30 am on 26.10.2014
The depression intensified into a Deep Depression and lays about 1270 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 910 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It would move initially north-northwestwards during next 48 hours. It would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours

in mm (min 60 mm)

Shirur - 163
Bachigondanahalli - 135
Bevoor - 130
Hampi Nagar - 127
Baad - 124
Inamhanchinal - 121
Karwar - 116
Koppal PTO - 106
Koppal - 105
Hudali - 99
Kinhal - 98
Joida - 98
Melur - 91
Tigadi - 91
Kandagal - 91
Santebennur - 90
Hunnur - 90
Santibastwad - 88
Kushtagi - 87
Honavar - 82
Hidkal Dam - 82
Babbur - 82
Hagaribommanahalli - 80
Ilkal - 80
Idagur - 80
Dhanagere - 80
Aversa - 79
Akheti - 76
Sunkasal - 76
Shivanasamudra - 76
Kadra - 75
Sankeshwar - 74
Belgaum - 74
Gunji - 73
Londa - 73
Hosur - 72
Madhurakhandi - 73
Sosale - 71
Pethammapur - 71
Jamakhandi - 70
Gokarana - 70
Kundapur - 70
MugutkanHubli - 69
Desur - 69
Ankola - 69
Katageri - 68
Nesargi - 68
Basgod - 67
Jagalbet - 67
Vajrahalli - 66
Belgaum AP - 65
Mudabidri - 65
Mudgal - 65
Ajjampura - 65
Tattihalla - 65
Khanapur - 64
Balale - 63
Channarayapatna - 62
Gangavathi - 62
Pradhani - 61
Dibburahalli - 61
Sankeshwar - 60
Kota - 60
Londa - 60
Holuru - 60
Tambur - 60
Sulebhavi - 60
Hukkeri - 60
Nagargali - 60
Bagalkot - 60
BP Dam - 60


Unknown said...

Sir Heavy rain expected in Thar region due to #Neelofar ?

Rajesh said...

Raja: Yes...some rains possible..
Comments on FB:
Cmdr Potey:Cotinuous light drizle all the way from khopoli to kolhapur till noon on my way

Abhijit: Very cool weather. Badlapur temp is 23.5c with 73% at 5pm today.

shiraz:Mahabaleshwar: Gusty wind from the East with chill

Mitan: Exactly sir....this track i was saying when genisis of As-1 has formed...any chance of light rain in odisha???

Salil:Mumbai is in super bad luck sign, just drizzles noting else.

Rajesh Kumar: Meanwhile heavy rain in Bangalore..

Chandan: Continues rain battering since yesterday afternoon in Belgaum. After given gap fr midnight again pouring from morning 7 am. Expected 50+mm rain tdy.

Abhijit Modak said...

Pune and it's suburbs max temp for today(25-10-14):

Pune (IMD) max temp 23.0c with 3mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Current temp 20.4c

Pune (Lavale AWS) max temp 23.9c with 3mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Current temp 18.8c

Pune (Magarpatta AWS) max temp 25.2c with 4mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Current temp 21c

Pune (NDA AWS) max temp 22.7c with 2mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Current temp 19.8c

Pune (ST Joseph AWS) max temp 20.7c with 3mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Current temp 18.4c

Unknown said...

Cyclone Nilofar's outer band is providing Overcast & cool weather to many of the cities in maharahtra ,goa and karnataka today!!
Listing out the max temp of important cities which is under 30 c today(25-10-2014).
Mumbai(Scz) -29 c
Mumbai(Clb) -28.9 c
Thane (AWS) -28.4 c
Palghar(AWS) -29.7 c
Nasik -25 c
Aurangabad (Chikalthan Aerodrome)- 24 c
Nagpur -26.2 c
Pune -23 c
Ratnagiri -28.5 c
Sholapur -28.6 c
kholapur -23.2 c
Goa(panjim) -26.8 c
Belgaum -21.2 c
Honavar -25.3 c
Chitradurga -26.8 c
Mangalore(AP) -28.2 c

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in Bangalore last evening.

City imd - 55 mm
Hal airport - 34 mm
Intl airport - 12 mm

In south Bangalore it rained from 4:00 pm to 6:30 pm yesterday.

salil said...

Dadar Mumbai getting Darker I just pray for some rain. As wegot nothing from the cyclone.

Unknown said...

rajesh sir plz tell us about sindh because sindh want this system badly because of extreme drought in all province.

sset said...

Again seems to be 5th NEM failure (TN/AP) - one of reason rogue cyclone "NILOFER". GUJ like Orissa proves to be sweet spot for extreme rains and cyclones- massive climate change. Cyclone may nit NW India (GUJ/RAJ/HP/UP) - back to SW monsoon axis??? Cyclone "NANUK" dumped 350-400mm over saurashtra - same can happen with severe cyclone "NILOFER".

sset said...

earlier TN/Rayalseema NEM used to have fear rains/lows getting diverted to orissa/WB/Burma now NEM has added new fear - Arabian sea stealing mositure from NEM and forming lows over NW India and NOT NE India!!!

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