Friday, March 23, 2012

Heat increases in the "pink" belt shown in Vagaries' weekly forecast map. Solapur along the line reaches 41.3c and Kurnool 41.2c. Pune, too, somewhat in the range was forecasted to heat up from Friday, and touched 38c today (Friday).
Nagpur hovering around 40c.
Mumbai gets hotter on Friday by reaching 35.3c. 

Western disturbance M-6, approaching Northern India. Over Northern Pakistan on Saturday and into India by Sunday.

Clouding seen along the trough line in Interior Karnataka and Southern Interior Mah. on Friday.

Friend and Rainfall Statistics Expert Pradeep, has put up a very interesting Poll for Vagaries' readers. It is also available on his blog.
Pradeep and Myself are following the results of this poll very eagerly. 

Please make your choice, as it would be interesting to know reader's opinion. 

On 23 March, the World Meteorological Organization, its 189 Members and the worldwide meteorological community celebrate World Meteorological Day. This day commemorates the entry into force, on that date in 1950, of the WMO Convention creating the Organization. Subsequently, in 1951, WMO was designated a specialized agency of the United Nations System.
All the Best to the Vagaries' Meteorology Community and other meteorologists around the World... Let's inter -act More to be of use and help all around us !


sridhar said...


Pradeep said...

Which place will end up as the Rainfall topper in 2012 SWM

After last year’s epic rainfall race for being the wettest places during South West Monsoon. I have compiled a poll for viewers and rain followers voting for the season 2012. The link to the polls is here Poll code. The 2011 rankings can be found here – 2011 SWM rainfall rankings

Anonymous said...

i suppose Cherrapunji, should top < el nino nuetral year with negative IOD ,should favour North east. just curious, how has been cherrapunji performance been in drought years

Anonymous said...

this is a metar report at santacruz airport : VABB 231640Z 00000KT 3500 FU NSC 33/M02 Q1011 NOSIG=
i have never seen the "dewpoint" in mumbai drop below zero!! isnt it very rare for mumbai to have just 10.5% relative humidity?

Rajesh said...

Anonymous: Recent drought years were 2009 and 2002. C'Punji received 9070 mms in 2009 and 12260 mms in 2002. In 1987, severe drought year, this place got 13153 mms.

Anonymous: Yes, very very surprising if Mumbai shows 10% humidity. METAR shows calm, with 0 kms wind, so difficult to understand, and another puzzling info is the temperature. At 1640Z, it cannot be 33c, it was around 27c.

Viravanalluran said...

It is too early to predict annual maximum rainfall for 2012 for entire India. Even though most of the RF in India is realized during SWM period now we are in pre monsoon season only. However based on statistics and experience one can widely predict (generalize) that SWM 2012 will be a BELOW normal rainfall year. As my boss pointed out that rare dust storm in Mumbai, very low RH in NW coastal India and the orientation of line of discontinuity all indicates that.

In such year bountiful rainfall will be realised in NE India only.

Final Figures for Mumbai Monsoon 2023 Santacruz 2978 mm ( 117.2 ") Colaba 2398 mms ( 94.5") Ending on good note with Lakes at 99.3...