Sunday, March 25, 2012

Just a few days back, Vagaries expressed concern on the seriousness and importance of the SWM. We should look into International studies also and consider steps for preparedness. See here.
Now some good news, we read-
"India examines various weather prediction models of foreign agencies." See link here.

U.S. has been through a mild winter this season..compared to Europe and Asia..and March began with heat waves..Do you know how many records have been equaled or broken in March ...?? Put up a guess ??? 

Vagaries' Sunday  Weekly  Forecast for  the  week 25th March to 1st April.

1. M-6, the latest in the series of W.D.s in March, is now sweeping through Northern Pakistan and India. The clouding is pushing Southwards into Punjab and Haryana. Northern areas of Rajasthan are parts of Delhi are clouded too. Across the border, clouds are observed in Sindh and Punjab (Pakistan).

M-6 will precipitate in the Northern regions of Pakistan on Sunday. Some incoming moisture will bring rains to Upper Sindh and adjoining regions on Tuesday, 27th. 
But Indian states of Kashmir, H.P. and parts of Utteranchal will continue to get rains till Tuesday, 27th March. In fact, on Tuesday, it will be heavy in H.P. with upper regions of Keylong and Kalpa receiving snowfall.

Punjab can get light rains on Monday. Delhi will not get any rains from this system.
M-6 moves into Western Nepal as a weak system on Wednesday, 28th March.

2. A trough line runs along Central India, roughly in line with 20N, for most of the week from Monday thru Thursday. The N winds and the S winds meet along this line. 
Starting Mon/Tuesday, Effect will be: Hot temperatures South of this line, specially in the Eastern part of the trough covering Eastern Vidharbha and adjoining Orissa. 
Nominal rise in NW and Northern India of 1 to 2c in day temperatures.
Strong N winds above the line, from Rajasthan in the West to W.Bengal will be prominent. 

3. Thursday,29th and Friday 30th, could see persisting heat and hot temperatures bringing almost heat wave conditions in Cenral Sindh, parts of Saurashtra and Gujarat region (including Bharuch) and Vidharbha (see vagaries map).

4. Very strong winds in Southern Arabia on Wednesday, 28th, will kick up a lot of sand. This sand/dust storm could flow into Oman on Thursday.

City Forecasts for the Week:

Mumbai: After the 39.5c on Saturday (24th), Mumbai slid to 36.5c on Sunday. However, Mumbai Colaba remained at 35.3c even on Sunday.
Throughout this week, Mumbai winds will be "favourable" due to the trough line. No E winds, and no heated temperatures. 
From Monday, N/NW winds will keep the days within the 33/34c range. But, the sea breeze will bring up the humidity gradually in the week.

By Friday, 30th, the morning humidity will shoot up to 85%. This would result in very misty and low visibility conditions (more so in open areas) on Friday and Saturday mornings.

Pune: With the minimum night temperatures still in the below normal range at 15c, the evenings and nights continue to be comfortable thanks to the extended cool climate of this city. 

Monday/Tuesday will be warm and the day temperature shoulds be around 38/39c, and the nights might just give up clinging to the lows and settle at 18c! But come Wednesday and Thursday and we could see a slight drop of a couple of degrees again. 
NW winds would be dominating from Wednesday or Thursday. 

Delhi: Nights are still in the pleasant 15/16c range. Capital will be fortunate as it will remain in the 33/34c range (day temperatures)till the week end. Actual heating (read above 36/37c) for the capital will not start till next Saturday/Sunday, 1st April, at least. 

Surat will also see a drop in temperatures from the unusual 40c of Saturday and Sunday to around 36c from Monday itself. Rise in humidity on Friday will find a misty morning on Saturday 31st March. 

Sukkar: Possibility of clouds and light rains on Tuesday, 27th. Rise in day temperatures (above 38c) after Wednesday as overall heat increases.
Heat wave expected later in the week on Friday/Saturday.
Karachi: After a partly cloudy Monday, the rest of the week will be clear. The days will be dominated by NW winds, which may become strong and gusty towards Thursday and Friday, and could be dust raising. The temperature range will be around 34c till the end of the week, and a slight increase thereafter.

Kathmandu: Neeraj kept us posted of the city's weather throughout last week. The day's had heated up last week crossed 31c, a bit unusual for this time. However, I see the temperatures have stabilising between 27c and 12c. Next week being dry, I would estimate normal temperatures for the Capital.

Last week's Vagaries' forecast turned out to be almost 70% accurate point by point.


Anonymous said...

thanks for the detailed weekly forecast

Regards, Ananth

Pradeep said...

All India Rainfall Toppers - 01.01.2012 to 27.03.2012

Manali (Himachal Pradesh) - 520
Anini (Arunachal Pradesh) - 500
Car Nicobar (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 430
Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 360
Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 350
Nancowry (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 330
Tuting (Arunachal Pradesh) - 300
Bhuntar (Himachal Pradesh) - 270
Kavali (Andhra Pradesh) - 233
Hut Bay (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) - 210

  4th October  The subtropical ridge continues to extend further east from the Arabian peninsula towards most parts of North west and west c...