Friday, November 11, 2011

The low SW of Sri Lanka persists in the same position as given in previous blog. Though not approached the Island yet, should precipitate rain by this week end over Sri Lanka.

The much awaited and anticipitated low mentioned in Vagaries' November forecast ( for the 8th) may eventually form it seems. Conditions for the formation of a low are brewing around the Andaman Islands, and in fact Thai map shows a low of 1008 mb there as on Friday evening. For numbering it, Will wait and see the progress.
If it matures, then, as mentioned in monthly forecast, should track towards the T.N coast as a depression at least.

The passing of N-2 will eventually cause cooling in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi from Saturday thru Tuesday.
The central plains, i.e. M.P. and Gujarat will see a fall of 2/3c in the night temperatures.

Moisture from N-2 can possibly bring some light rain in the weekend in central Nepal.

We had forecasted cooler nights for Pune from Friday (13c estimated on Monday, 7th Nov). and so be it ! Pune was 13.4c on Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday will see the day around 31c and a cooler night at 12/13c.

Mumbai, warmed up more than expected in the day these last few days. However, the minimum temperatures were almost along expected lines.

The forecast put up on Monday (7th) last, and the actual temperature in brackets shown here for performance study.

Mumbai S'Cruz Temperature Forecast v/s Actual:

Tuesday: 34 - 22 : (34-24)

Wednesday: 33 - 22 : (36-22)

Thursday: 33 - 21 : (37-21)

Friday/Saturday: 32 - 19/20 : (35-21) ( However, Colaba was 32c).

Forecast for this weekend for Mumbai Santa Cruz:Clear Sky.

Saturday: 34c - 20c

Sunday: 32/33c - 19c N/W winds in the evening.

Monday: 32c - 19c.


sset said...

Severe drought hits Andra. As told in Business Standard.

With failed SWM and almost negligible NEM has brought Andhra to drought. It is high time our scientist study change in climate pattern over India - Southern states are facing more dry periods while western states like Maharastra, Gujarat, Rajisthan,MP are becoming more wet and rainy.

Andhra drought situation alarming / BSCAL August 29,1997

Andhra Pradesh revenue minister T Devender Goud yesterday termed the drought condition in the state as alarming saying that the rainfall deficit so far was 37 per cent. After a review of the drought condition at a high level meeting here, Goud said 274 mandals were facing drought conditions due to monsoon failure. All necessary steps to provide relief to the farmers, he said. Sowing operations in paddy fields were affected and were less than 50 per cent. Transplantation took place in 10.27 lakh hectares against the usual 26.18 lakh hectares. Agricultural operations were taken up in 28.37 lash hectares as against the normal 53.55 lakh hectares for dry crops, he said. The state has released Rs 32 crore for the supply of drinking water and seeds and instructed all district collectors to release the amounts allocated to them under various welfare schemes, including employment assurance scheme (EAS) for the drought affected areas, he said. Goud said Mahboobnagar district in Telangana was the worst hit with 52 mandals receiving scanty rainfall followed by Guntur (34) and Chittoor (31). There was absolutely no rainfall in 28 mandals across the state. Asked if the state would declare some of the mandals as drought hit, Goud said though there was no proposal yet, as it was the middle of monsoon seasion, We are taking all steps to provide relief to the affected people. The main complaints were about lack of drinking water, shortage of fodder and employment and the collectors were asked to release funds to tackle the contingencies, he said. There was good rain in the past two days in 15 districts though it was very late for sowing operations, Goud said, adding that the next cabinet meeting would discuss the number of mandals to be declared as drought affected. The south-west monsoon covered the state between June 1 and 18 and was very sporadic, scanty and widely scattered and left a dry spell till recently, hampering the agricultural operations, he added.

Ron said...

it gets really hot in the afternoon..its unbearable...

Shitij said...

Whether the system which is currently located located over Sri lanka coast will move towards the Arabian sea or it will move in Bay of bengal?

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