Sunday, November 27, 2011

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AS-4 at 12.7N and 71.0E, as on Sunday evening, has tracked NW (See Vagaries Map of AS-4 Track above). Winds are gusting at 40-45 knts, with core pressure at 996 mb. from 74.9E on Saturday night to 71E on Sunday night, hence AS-4 is moving away from the West coast.
Likely to continue tracking NW, and weakening will startt from Tuesday evening. Tomorrow it will peak at 994/996 mb with winds gusting at 50 knts.

Cloud motion vectors show spiral cloud bands will cover the west coast from Konkan to South Gujarat on Monday. Light rain possible in N.Konkan and South Gujarat. Rise in temperatures for this week for Mah. and Gujarat regions.
Clouds from the concentrated cloud mass of the system will be stretched NE towards the Kutch and (Eastern) Sindh regions by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Karachi will be cloudy (mostly medium to high clouds) on Tuesday. Light rain in some areas possible.

Mumbai will be cloudy on Monday, with light rain in some parts of the city. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with high clouds. I had mentioned that "winter" will go for a "toss" Sure enough ! Mumbai saw a low temperature of 26c on Sunday, after having 21c in the previous 2/3 nights.The High was at 36c.


junaid said...

its a waste system for mumbai,,,,,temps have increased along wid the humidity!!!!and it seems its not going to give significant rains to mumbai,,,,light rains will increase the discomfort,,,,todays day at panvel was quite hot@rajesh can u tell wat is the reason for this sytem moving nw ,,,if it all it curves toward mumbai like phyan wat shud be the parameters for steering it ne like phyan??are the strong easterly winds of the peninsula favouring its nw movement.???

Rajesh said...

junaid:system is moving NW..y are you surprised ? was it not estimated by vagaries right from the start ? Anyway if u want to know the reason, its technical.Breifly, there is a anti cyclone now on the east coast, and the movement is westwards. The anti cyclone is estimated to be over Mumbai by Tuesday.The anti cyclone high pressure ..and not AS-4.
So,AS-4 will continue NW. I think it will weaken from Tuesday..I have mentioned it in todays blog.
The upper winds which are N/NW also steer the system.
I have told u a couple of days ago (in the blog) to forget winter for a few more days..

junaid said...

@rajesh,,,,m not at all surprised by the systems nw movement as from the start vagaries expected it to move nw ... Now the Jtwc is echoing the same thing,,,its just that the system will be giving us less rain is irritating request from me please try put the technical aspect also,,,,it makes the reading more informative !!!! And begginers like me get to learn technical aspects also!!!

Rajesh said...

junaid:all readers may not like too much of technical details..that is why i avoid..some time back i was asked to go simple..and just yesterday Satyen, our reader said he wants a simple answer..that was on vagaries "group" on FB..have u joined the group ?
And for u, please check the 500 hpa chart from IMD site, it will help you follow the track..

junaid said...

@rajesh will surely join the fb group(already vagaries is my homepage) ,,,but sir still u can always write a seperate breif paragraph abt the technicalities(if possible):)now i can decipher why the rains are not going upto cities like vishakapatnam and orissa,usually wich happens during active ne monsoon,,,sir one more request before the ending of the year plz try to get the amboli fig,,,as it may have received rain during oct withdrawal phase!!!and thanx a lot for ur feedback

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