Sunday, October 30, 2011
Latest on AS-2: Updated 7.00pm IST Sunday.
Positioned at 6.00 pm IST, Sunday, at 14.7N and 58.9E. Movement in last 6 hrs : Slightly North.
Even though IMD terms it as a depression, being at 1006 mb now, after dropping to 1004 mb, its not gaining too much strength as such. Winds maintained at 20 knts.
Having a constant NW track, the clouding is apparently moving away from the Karnataka and Konkan coast (and away from Mumbai).
AS-2 will now move NW, and approach the South coast of Oman. As explained in earlier blog, may curve N later due to jet streams direction and wind shear, but as a weaker system. On skirting the Oman coast, it seems the system will weaken rapidly.
The Southern UAC is just South of the Southern tip of India. Clouding accumulated along the Kerala coast and Southern tip is due to this system.
System will gain, and will be numbered when the system descends to a sea level low by Tuesday. Expected to move NW, and cross into the Arabian Sea.
Outlook for the next 3 days (4th, 5th, 6th December): BB-20 intensified into cyclone Jawad. It will move north-northwest initially and then...