Vagaries Estimate October weather forecaste Reproduced v/s actual (in green)
Black Print is original Forecast, and Green is actual performance.
Vagaries Estimate for October for the Sub-Continent:
-As we see the SWM still prevailing in the Indian peninsula and Eastern regions, we shall first discuss its possible retreat.
The current signs and parameters suggest a withdrawal of the SWM from
SWM withdrew from A.P.and Orissa, still prevailing in S.Maharashtra.
-Further withdrawal from the Southern states of Karnataka, T.N. and Kerala will be between 7th and 12th October.
Not yet thru.
-Formations of UACs or a low pressure in the
UAC formed in
-ENSOconditions remain within neutral conditions, but both atmospheric and oceanic indicators show a trend toward La Niña. More importantly, for a La Niña event to occur, these indicators must remain above the threshold and persist for at least a few months.
Hence, NEM could be moderate to avarage after setting thru October.
No major W.D. is seen crossing the Northern regions in the first half of October. However, as the westerly upper winds gain strength and stabilise, a W.D. is possible in the second half of the month. The middle hills (Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kalpa, Keylong) could get the first snowfall during the 2nd half of this month, and here will see the temperature touch 0c by the 15th of October. Leh, in Ladhak will freeze a week before.
A weak W.D. moved across Northern sub-Continent in the 1st week, and brought snow to the higher reaches. Middle hills snow possible as forecasted.
-Northern plains of
Days will be around 33-35c in interior
Northern Plains are currently in the 33-37c day range, with 38c as the highest.
-There could be a possibility of a depression forming, and strengthening, in the East Arabian Sea off the west coast of
Waiting. Date not arrived !
Local weather phenomena always holds the key over the Mountainous areas, which in turn effects the nearby plains. Thunder cells could form in the mountains, and drift over the nearest plains areas. Specially in the next few days, as the region is predominantly saturated with moisture.
In general, we can expect the nights in
The average rain for October is around 57 mms, and most of it could be from local phenomena, meaning no W.D.systems etc.
Do not expect any W.D. to have any great effect in October.
SWM withdraws, and
-Sindh regions of
Northern regions will experience the normal cooling, with a couple of W.D.s in the Northern most regions preicipitating rains, after 20th of this month.
Days in Sindh are around 35-38c range, with the highest showing 39c. Nights are still warmer than expected in Sindh in the 22-24c range.