Thursday, August 26, 2010

Rains decreasing in T.N. and North, increasing in West:

The system, low, in the bay, is now persisting in the area, off the A.P. coast, and as anticipated, is lingering in the region. Having moved a bit North, and at 100
0 mb (as per IMD) today, it should now cross the coast (on the 26th.) and move inland into Rayalseema and M.P. areas.

The monsoon axis is now forked, one branch towards the north-east, and one towards the centre of the bay low.The system will move along th
e axis corridor.

The best possible estimate of its track and strength,I feel,is shown in the NGP forecast, and will move, and fizzle out approximately as per the diagram put up.

Now onwards, I can safely visualise a decrease in rains in the drenched Northern belt, including Delhi and Haryana, already reeling under the swollen Yamuna. A major relief for the hill states of H.P.and Utteranchal which have witnessed very heavy rains and landslides last week.
As the low fizzles out, by the 28th, a decrease in precipitation may also be seen in the central regions.

And, a clearing up of the T.N. and south coastal A.P. is seen from 28th, with almost clear skies for Chennai, as the pressure at MSL increases forming a vertical velocity of +10 in the region.

Then onwards, it will be the interior Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and eastern areas of Gujarat which will get an increased precipitation. From Saturday, it may be possible that rains will increase in these regions, and last till Monday. This enhancement in rains will be a result of an upper air low at 850 hpa, which will travel west as a pulse and get embedded (vortex) by Sunday, in the "livened up" off shore trough.
From Saturday thru Tuesday, good rains ranging from 50-150 mms could be expected in coastal Karnataka/Goa/Konkan and south coastal Gujarat.

Early next week, from 1st to 3rd. September, I estimate light rainfall travelling the south Sindh coast, with not much threat inland.

Mumbai: Rains Coming back by Saturday/Sunday. Friday: Cloudy with heavy showers sparsed in the day, with day's rainfall around 20-25 mms. (Average rain on Wednesday was 30 mms). Same intensity on Saturday, but heavier falls on late night Saturday. As a vortex forms, an increase in rain intensity from Sunday thru Tuesday, with around 130 mms of rain accumalating on these 3 days. Monday/Tuesday, of the days will be particularly heavy, and windy. A reminder that monsoon is still very much there, and an answer to FAQs.


Anonymous said...

Dear Rajesh
I am an avid follower of your blog and trust your predictions very much. Thank you for all the good work. I request you to post the current lake levels supplying water to Mumbai.

nt said...

Good for Chennai and Delhi folks, wonder when the Sun god will make his presence felt in Mumbai again!! I await the 'Vagaries' declaration around clear skies for Mumbai :-)

Rajesh said...

Thanks Bhavesh for the encouraging words. And please keep giving inputs to improve the blog.
I have put the lakes position on Friday.

nt, the 2 metros, Delhi and chennai are clear now. But the monsoon is still present.

Mumbai...? You tell me :)Dont you think we still have the end of the season thundershowers still to come ?

nt said...

Rajesh, I meant relatively 'clear skies' for now :-) The end of the season Thundershowers are no doubt waiting - but I guess that would be 4 - 6 weeks down the line from now, they anyways mostly occur in the evening / night hours and generally last 1 - 2 hours while the day remains sunny and hot.