Saturday, October 24, 2015

Posted Saturday 24th Evening:

1. Continuing from yesterday's Post, the  latest shows  the Low, off the East coast  of Sri Lanka has formed as expected.
The Sri Lanka Low, BB-7, should track North, towards the TN coast, and approach Chennai. The system will deepen to a depression and track into the A.P. coast by mid next week.
The trough in the Arabian Sea persists, and a Low is expected in the trough West off Kerala.
Tuesday heavy rains expected in Kerala.

Chennai: Few showers till Monday. Rains and NEM expected from 27th, Tuesday. By Wednesday, the rains pick up in intensity, and Chennai can expect around 55-60 mms by Thursday morning, and another (about) 40 mms by Friday morning. 
( A  4 day advance forecast may vary a bit.)

2.The AS-2, will also track North initially, and dump rains in Kerala and Coastal Karnataka on Wednesday and Thursday.
Goa can expect some spill over light showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.

3.O-3 now moving into North India from Pakistan. Rain/Snow expected in Kashmir and H.P. on Sunday and Monday. Punjab and parts of Haryana can expect winter showers on Sunday and Monday. 
The passing of the WD will see clear skies and sharp fall in night temperatures in North and NW India. Places in Punjab may see the nights falling to 12-13c on Thursday/Friday morning.
( A  4 day advance forecast may vary a bit.)

Delhi NCR can expect thunder showers in many parts of the region on Tuesday. Some chances of extension of showers on Wednesday morning.. From Thursday, NCR may see a fall in night temperatures, touching around 14-15c.

Cooler nights and drop by 2/3c expected from Thursday/Friday morning in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra. Showers will be occurring in regions of M.P. on Wednesday...after which there will be a sharp fall in night temperatures.

Light rain expected in Mumbai on Sunday.

There will be no Vagaries Update on Sunday 25th, Monday 26th and Tuesday 27th.


Narayanan chennai said...

Thanks for your Chennai forecast. Hoping for good rains as predicted.

Vinod Desai said...

Light rain in thane and now in western suburb.

Unknown said...

Awesome weather today at dombivli!
The weather turned completely dark at dombivli and had Dust storm around 3:30 pm and finally got rains @ 4:20pm.

Abhijit Modak said...

Electrifying TS lashed Badlapur between 3pm to 5pm today. It was with whole package of complete dark weather,lightning striking,crackling thunder sound, gusty windstorm and most importantly with heavy rains. Weather cool down lot after of rain.. :)

sset said...

Torrential rains over Navi Mumbai since early dawn!!! Looks like back to SWM for Mumbai. In fact this must be longest rainy months (april - oct), nov also may get rains. Meanwhile for drought stricken Rayalseema,TN,interiors of KAR no hint of NEM!! - low over AS, WD are culprits.. SE Asian country Indonasia bone dry massive fires have engulfed due to extreme dryness....

NilaY Wankawala said...

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 27 October 2015

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole persist
A strong El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are dominating the climate of countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the central tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to warm, but at a markedly slower pace than earlier this year. All NINO indices have now been above +1 °C for 11 consecutive weeks, equalling the previous record. Recent bursts of westerly winds in the tropics means some further warming remains possible. All models indicate that the strong El Niño is likely to persist until the end of the year, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016.

International climate models also suggest the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist into November, but then decline rapidly once the monsoon trough shifts south, changing wind patterns over the IOD region. So far in October the IOD index has averaged over +1 °C—the last month that this occurred was in 2006.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring daytime temperatures south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast. During summer, El Niño's influence on rainfall decreases, while warmer daytime and night-time temperatures tend to be more likely across the south and east.

NilaY Wankawala said...

El Niño update due credit to Australian bureau of meteorology. .. inadvertently missed out giving credit while posting earlier post

sset said...

No great heavy falls over SE India. AS cyclone has taken away what was meant for SE India, WD disorganized all cloud formation. Same is happening every year. 2012 as last time any depression hit TN (even though NEM rain quantity was less). After that all were duds. Ironically places like "Oman"/persian gulf are regularly getting cyclones / same goes with RAJ/GUJ every year we see extreme rains 500-700mm in 24hrs. What is in store for NEM? Only 1 month left - now or never.

BB 18 A Low expected near the Andaman Islands by  Monday 5th. System can strengthen to a depression or cyclone over the Bay of Bengal before...