Posted Saturday 31st October Night:
A continuation review from Last Posted Blog on Last Saturday (24th)...(Also gives me a chance to evaluate Vagaries' Outlooks):
1. The Low off Sri Lanka persisted for a few days from Monday, and now today, having tracked North, is located off the North TN Coast. The Low (BB-9), will track NE along the coast (and in the trough) and dissipate off the Odisha coast in a few days.
Much against our expectations, Chennai received 14 mms as on (last) Thursday morning and another 13 mms only as on Friday morning Around 28/30 mms against 50 mms estimated in Vagaries). Some International models had shown 150/170 mms for Thursday and Friday, enlightening the hopes of the Chennaites.
Some parts of Chennai got heavy showers on Saturday, the official Minambakkam station recorded 10 mms till 8.30 pm IST.
For Chennai, the wait for good meaningful rains continues. Well, BB-9 is moving NE, along a well defined trough, so at the most another day of moderate thunder shower for Chennai...maybe around 20 mms ?
So, with BB-9 "showing its pace", East coast towns can expect showers on Sunday.
Kolkata, which is waiting for a good effect from BB-9, will see some overnight showers, light to medium on Saturday night, and extending into passing showers on Sunday.
AS-2, as we all now, has become a super Cyclone, Chapala at estimated 950 mb core pressure, and is moving towards the Yemen Coast.
With favourable conditions and lack of dry air (dry air is only to the South, which now has no decreasing effect) Chapala will remain strong and as a severe cyclone on landfall. Landfall on the Yemen /South Oman coast will be around night of 1st or 2nd November.
Kerala was dumped with heavy rains last week.
Another factor on expected lines was that with the passing of the Western Disturbance O-3, the nights in North plains and Central India started showing the marginal drop.
Punjab towns are now between 12-15c, Delhi S'jung is about 15/16c and Rajasthan towns are around 15-17c.
From Thursday/Friday morning, Gujarat and interior Mah saw a slight fall in night temperatures.