Wednesday, February 15, 2012

After summarising how the weather has behaved after the weekly forecast put up by vagaries, we shall attempt to put in the next 3 days (Thurs/Fri/Sat) forecast:

1. F-2 moved into the sub continent and precipitated snow in the northern regions of Pakistan. after moving into India on Sunday, Kashmir and H.P. had very good snowfall. 
On Monday, 13th, the northern plains too had light to medium rains in Punjab and Haryana and the northern plains of Pakistan including Islamabad. Delhi was cloudy on 13th and 14th with very light sprinkling of drizzles.

Saurashtra region saw a drop in day temp on Wed (today, vagaries had forecasted Sunday/Mnday), with the day's high at Rajkot being 27c (IMD) and 26c at Ashokbhai's ring road Weather station. NW winds caused this drop. Ashokbhai's Station saw agust of 21 kmph today.

F-2 has moved into Nepal. A trough exists there, and good clouding in the Central and Western regions. BUT, not much of actual precipitation. Lets hope for some on Thursday. Clouds have raised the night temps in Kathmandu from 2c to 8c today (Wed).

System will move west on Thursday, and bring precipitation to Central/Eastern Nepal and Sikkim and North W.B.

The secondary low mentioned in the weekly forecast, forms over Orissa/W. Bengal by tonite. Rainfall is expected in W.Bengal as a result of the dual effect of the 2 systems.The systems dissolve very fast in the next 24 hrs due to dry interaction.
Kolkata can get rains from Thursday itself, a day earlier than forecasted. And the day temp has also moved up,  Wed, being 31.5c . 

2. The UAC mentioned in the weekly forecast moves NE, and has formed a trough along the S.Mah/Vid/Chattisgarh line "poking" into the new low.
As a result, light rains were experianced in Nagpur and Wardha on Wed and light rains in S.Mah/Marathwada. on Tuesday night, with Parbhani measuring 0.3 mms.Weather willl be dry now onwards in these regions, as the parent low fizzles out.

Next 3 days, Delhi will be clear, and steady in the current range between  23c and 12c.

Mumbai will be clear, but possibly see a marginal rise in day temps on Thursday and Friday. Maybe going upto 32c next 2 days. Nights have been around 16/17 (S'Cruz) post F-2, and will hover around 18c next 2 nights.

Pune did not drop to 9c, but stayed put at 11c last 2 nights. Now, a marginal rise ( to 33/34c) in day temps next 2 days expected.

Interior Balochistan saw an extreme low of 0.5c at Norkundi and 1c at Sibi on Tuesday and Wed. And Karachi dropped to 9c. Sukkar maintained the night at 9c, not going below that.

F-3, will bring clouds Upper Sindh from 17th, Friday. The day/night could increase a bit proir to the appraoch of F-3.With Islamabad currently in a pleasant range of 18c and 1c, a slight rise in temps for a day prior to F-3, which will bring precipitation to the city on Saturday again.

The Tail ending effect of winter is still lingering in the sub-continent. The day and night temps are below normal in vast regions of the NW and Northern regions. Even the Southern areas are below to some extent.

With F-3 coming, winter could be stretched a bit further into the last week of February

A depression approaches Vietnam on the 17th of February. 
Heavy rainfall expected in Sri Lanka on Thursday/Friday.

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PWP said...

Nice job Vagaries! Little correction, Sibbi and Nokkundi are in Balochistan not Sindh..

Rajesh said...

PWP: Thanks for the correction..amended.
Your write up on the cold wave in Europe comparison with U.S. was very interesting..very factual.

Ameya said...

how do u see the next week over mumbai is winter over or still expect any cold weather. weather is around 16deg but doesnt feel that cold getting a summer feel

Rajesh said...

Ameya: Pleasant weather could move into next week as we are still expecting F-3.

nasir chudary said...

Today sukkur minmum temp 3.5.humdity 92%.officel site 9c showing wrong.

Rajesh said...

Nasir: You are right, official site PMD, also showing 4c.Was expecting Sukkur to drop to at least 6c as mentioned in my forecast..was surprised why it was not dropping..

Ameya said...

Will temp drop any further for Mumbai...says drop 13deg as per IMD website

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