Chart compiled by Vag. Gokul.
Fast Withdrawal indications:
Subtropical ridge at lower levels have started extending eastwards from the desert areas towards NW India at 25°N indicating the seasonal shift. As a result, .Bay system may not travel west into central India from east coast.
*BB 10 not coming inland is a big miss and may allow an early SWM withdrawal from North, Central and Peninsula India.
*Some more moisture inflow is needed into Maharashtra to sustain rains in October first week..
*Arabian Sea may not see any strong UAC off the coast to push southerlies...
*Retreating thundershowers also starting with NE flow directly...so few days of active ⛈️ thunder activity before dry weather in peninsula and Maharashtra. (If there would be E/SE component in TS then may have persisted longer).
Forecast till 1st October:
*Monsoon withdrawal from Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, JK, HP and Delhi by 28th September.
Dry weather in Northern, Central States. Eastern India will get some rains.
Most of Western Ghats, Madhya Maharashtra belt and parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha to receive thundershowers till 1st October.
*Retreating Monsoon afternoon/evening thunderstorms expected for Mumbai and Pune regions. These thunder activities may persist till 1st/2nd October.
*Some areas can get localized heavy rain with gusty winds.
*Due to fast developments in the High pressure spread, Mumbai Monsoon may withdraw a few days earlier than anticipated. Could be around 5th October for total withdrawal.
Inputs from Vag. Gokul and Vag. Shreyas.