Friday, September 29, 2023

Detailed Weather forecast from Friday 29th September to Tuesday 3rd October - Tracking the Monsoon withdrawal

Some much needed rainfall has occurred over interior and rainfall-deficit Maharashtra during the last 10 days, although the deficit will persist in some districts. 

Mumbai: Retreating monsoon thunderstorms are possible until 1st October, after which the chances of rainfall decrease. Only isolated thunder pop-ups likely around Ghats during 2nd-3rd October. 

Dry air from north/northeast at 700 hP and 850 hPa will engulf most of north Konkan and interior Maharashtra after 3rd October. 

Monsoon may withdraw around 5th-7th October from Mumbai and north Konkan. 

October heat will set in with max temperatures rising to 32-34C for MMR. Nights can be around 24C, slightly cooler for Thane district. 

Pune: Chances of retreating Monsoon thunderstorms till 2nd October, after which isolated thundery activity may be confined to Ghats till around 3rd/4th October. 

Monsoon withdrawal may happen by 7th October. 

Daytime temperature may rise to 31-32C after the stoppage of thunderstorms. Night temperature may dip to around 19-21C, with rural areas/Ghats seeing a further dip.

Note: Although weather is likely to be mostly dry, surface winds for Mumbai and Konkan may still remain weak northwesterly, so moderate humidity may persist. The dry easterlies may start from the second week of October.

Due to persisting dense clouds/thunderclouds, a cyclonic circulation has formed over Arabian Sea off the south Konkan coast - moderate-heavy rain/thundershowers likely for south Konkan and Goa for next 2 days, with localized very heavy rain. It may become a low pressure area.
It won't be able to push in moisture till Pune/Mumbai, otherwise rain/thunderstorms would have persisted during the 1st week of October. 

Marathwada and Vidarbha: Some rain/thundery activity may continue till 2nd October for southern districts, and dry weather after that. 

Daytime temperature can rise to 33C after 2nd October.

Eastern parts of Vidarbha may see some rain till 3rd October. 

Gujarat: Rain/thunderstorms from the retreating Monsoon will persist till 30th September near Bharuch,Vadodara, Saurashtra, Surat, Valsad regions. Few places near Surat/Valsad and south Saurashtra can see localized thunder till 1st October. 
Monsoon likely to withdraw from entire Gujarat by around 3rd/4th October. 

Dry weather, and October heat with temperatures rising to 34C is possible after Monsoon's withdrawal. Some regions in Kutch may touch 36C. 

Parts of Kerala and coastal/Ghats of Karnataka can receive moderate-heavy rain over next 3 days.

A new low, BB-10 is developing over north Bay of Bengal. It will move west/northwest and bring moderate rain for West Bengal, Odisha Bihar, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh, eastern parts of Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh, east and central Uttar Pradesh till about 3rd/4th October. Western areas of Uttar Pradesh may also see few isolated showers. 

Himalayan regions of central and eastern Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh can receive heavy rain - avoid travel. 

Many parts of northeastern states of India can receive good rain in this period. 

Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR: No rain is expected, Monsoon withdrawal may be announced in a day or two. 

Western Himalayan states and UTs may receive some rain/snow from a weak Western Disturbance from 30th September to 3rd October. 

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