Many queries are cropping up on the "El Nino" topic ...Firstly, what is El Nino?
Simply put..An over heating of a tongue of water off the South American Coast.
Caution: All El Nino years may not necessarily mean a weak Monsoon, as seen in the chart below 👇
ONI & El Nino: Characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
El Niño Advisory ...How is it shaping up ?
* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño.
*El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024).*
The Indian Summer Monsoon 2023 was partially affected by the current developing El Nino.
The monsoon started off weak, with June being -9% July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.
So far this September, surplus is +9%,
All India Monsoon is at -7%. Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season.