Thursday, September 21, 2023

Current El Nino..2023.

Many queries are cropping up on the "El Nino" topic ...Firstly, what is El Nino?

Simply put..An over heating of a tongue of water off the South American Coast.

Caution: All El Nino years may not necessarily mean a weak Monsoon, as seen in the chart below 👇

ONI & El Nino: Characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

 La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. 

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

El Niño Advisory ...How is it shaping up ?

*El Niño conditions are observed.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño. 

*El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through December 2023-February 2024).*

The Indian Summer Monsoon 2023 was partially affected by the current developing El Nino. 

The monsoon started off weak, with  June being -9%  July, impressed with +13% . August saw erratic activity, with -36% for the month.

So far this September, surplus is +9%,

All India Monsoon is at -7%.  Maybe a better picture will emerge by this month end...for the overall Monsoon Season. 

1 comment:

sset said...

Says el- Nino may not be weak monsoon. What about Southern India - kerala ķarnataka andhra facing worst drought - not a single system in 2023 since biparjoy.
Monsoon has only favored gujarat Rajasthan Maharashtra many parts, central India with series of lows pressure systems leaving Southern India in drought.