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Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology
Issued Tuesday 19 September 2023
The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.
El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole underway
The Bureau has declared an El Niño and a positive IOD are underway.
Oceanic indicators exhibit an El Niño state. Central and eastern Pacific SSTs continue to exceed El Niño thresholds. Models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely.
Broadscale pressure patterns over the Pacific reflect El Niño, with the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at −7.7.
ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.
Current status: El Niño
Overall, there are signs that the atmosphere is responding to the warm SSTs over the Pacific and coupling of ocean and atmosphere has started to occur. This coupling is a characteristic of an El Niño event and is what strengthens and sustains an event for an extended period. Climate models indicate this El Niño is likely to persist until at least the end of February. El Niño typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for eastern Australia.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is underway. This is its fifth week above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). The longevity of this trend, combined with the strength of the dipole being observed and forecast, indicate a positive IOD event is underway. All models indicate that this positive IOD will be sustained to at least the end of spring. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia and can increase the drying influence of El Niño.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak and is forecast to remain weak over the coming week.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently negative and is expected to remain negative for at least the coming week, before a possible return to neutral late in September. During spring, a negative SAM is associated with decreased rainfall across parts of the east in both NSW and Victoria, and increased rainfall over western Tasmania.
The long-range forecast for Australia indicates warmer and drier than average conditions are likely across most of southern and eastern Australia from October to December. The Bureau's climate model takes into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere when generating its long-range forecasts.
More information
Media liaison (03) 9669 4057
Technical enquiries helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au
Next update expected by 26 September 2023
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