Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Posted 26th May night:

Yaas weakening fast and moving NW into Jharkhand/Bihar and East U.P...

Once cyclone Yaas dissipates, which is expected around May 28, the ocean and atmospheric conditions would once again normalise and favor the advancement of the monsoon

Now, let's shift our attention to the SWM....Vagaries had given the date of advancement to Kerala ( as a weak current) by 26th..so where are we now  ?

Monsoon has moved upto Maldives and South Sri Lanka.

Now, seeing the OLR box ( 5N - 10N and 70E- 75 E) we see favorable values of below 200 wm2



The upper winds, upto 600 hpa levels also tend to become Westerly in 2 days.




Judging by this, we feel the SWM will advance to Kerala, as a weak current on 27th May

Will remain weak and stagnant till 1st June at least.  Giving a few days for the off shore trough to stabilize,and the pressure gradient to establish.

Forecast for 27th Thursday, 28th Friday, 29th Saturday.

Mumbai: Proper Monsoon still 12- 15 days away..around 8th-10th June. But pre monsoon  showers may start by 4th June..+- 2 days.

Warm and humid next few days.

Pune: Partly cloudy. A mild shower in some parts on 28TH/29TH possible.

Monsoon proper expected after 8th June. 

Goa: As the  off shore trough forms, Goa  will start with pre monsoon from around 29th or 30th.

1 comment:

sanjeev Gokhale said...

Passing showers here in Mulund Mumbai Suburb this morning.

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